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☆ We're expecting India's economic growth to slow next year, says Nomura economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're expecting India's economic growth to slow next year, says Nomura economistSonal Varma of Nomura says the country will probably be able to hit a growth rate of 7% this financial year but slow to around 4.7% in the next.

☆ China signals slight Covid policy easing — but don't expect sweeping changes yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Customers dine in at a McDonald's in Guangzhou on Dec. 1, 2022, a day after the city eased Covid restrictions on restaurant operations. BEIJING — A trickle of changes around China's Covid controls in the last 24 hours has raised hopes that broader relaxation is on its way. Local state media reports and anecdotes indicated Thursday that some people who tested positive for Covid-19 in Beijing might now be allowed to quarantine at home instead of being sent to a centralized facility. That's according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese state media report late last night. Also on Wednesday, the Guangzhou city district hardest hit by Covid said it would allow most restaurants to resume in-store dining, and entertainment venues can gradually reopen.

☆ China's Nov factory, services activities fall to 7-month lows on COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 48.0 against 49.2 in October, the lowest reading in seven months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Separately, the non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at service sector activity, fell to 46.7 from 48.7 in October, also the lowest reading in seven months. Chinese authorities this month rolled out a flurry of policies to prop up the struggling economy, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and COVID fine-tuning measures, while loosening financing curbs to rescue the property sector. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

☆ China property sector surges on fundraising support, but COVID protests cloud outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Xie Yu | Jason Xue | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The move is the latest regulatory easing as Beijing steps up support for the property business, a sector that accounts for a quarter of the Chinese economy. Yuan-denominated bonds issued by Chinese developers CIFI Group, Guangzhou Times Holdings, Country Garden rocketed between 20% and 50% each on Tuesday. “Most of the funding channels the property developers need are covered now,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. “It is now up to whether the market, or basically the state players will actually support the sector,” he said. If funds could be raised from state-backed investors, there will be meaningful consolidation in the property sector, Ng said.

☆ Asia shares take comfort in China property rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms. read moreThat helped Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) bounce 1.1%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.7%. Markets were still nervous that the widening web of restrictions in China would lead to more public unrest and further undermine growth. read more"The zero China COVID policy has been an absolute gut punch to Apple's supply chain," said Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush. The dollar index rallied to 106.57 , having been as low as 105.31 overnight.

☆ Nomura CEO says U.S. becomes profit driver despite one-off losses
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Nomura Holdings Inc's (8604.T) U.S. wholesale business has emerged as a profit driver despite some large one-off losses in the region that had dragged down the bank's earnings in the past, Chief Executive Officer Kentaro Okuda said. Nomura's wholesale division consists of the global markets and investment banking arms. Japan's biggest brokerage and investment bank has had a long troubled history in its attempts to expand overseas, including the acquisition of assets from the collapsed Lehman Brothers in 2008 which it later wrote down. Okuda said the wholesale business overhaul in 2019, which included cost cuts and scaling back of lower growth segments, has helped turn the business leaner. To help the business become more resilient to market swings, Nomura plans to boost equity, private markets products as well as advisory and wealth management businesses, he said.

China's CSI300 Index (.CSI300) was down 1.8% after opening down 2.2% while the yuan also retreated. Australia's benchmark stock index (.AXJO) closed 0.42% lower while its risk-sensitive currency was off more than 1%. Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) was down 0.6%. In Shanghai, demonstrators and police clashed on Sunday night as protests over the country's stringent COVID restrictions flared for a third day. The COVID rules and resulting protests are creating fears the economic hit for China will be greater than first expected.

☆ Market watchers' comments on COVID-19 protests in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Here's what market watchers are saying about the unrest:ALLAN VON MEHREN, CHIEF ANALYST, DANSKE BANK, COPENHAGEN:"Normally protests in China are aimed at local governments but a crowd in Shanghai directed their protest against the Communist Party and Xi Jinping." "The protests come as the recent tweaks in the zero-Covid policy seem to have backfired as they led to rising cases across the country that subsequently triggered new restrictions being implemented. MARK HAEFELE, GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CIO, UBS, ZURICH:"We do not expect economic or market headwinds in China to abate significantly over the coming months. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category.

☆ Comments from market watchers on the COVID-19 protests in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

ALVIN TAN, ASIA FX STRATEGIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"The scale of the protests will necessarily elicit a response from Beijing. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. "Overall, the China Q4 growth outlook should remain grim given the COVID resurgence and the related mobility tightening. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. MARTIN PETCH, VICE PRESIDENT, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE:"We expect the protests ... to dissipate relatively quickly and without resulting in serious political violence.

☆ China's industrial profits drop further as COVID woes take toll on economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( Liz Lee | Liangping Gao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s industrial firms saw overall profits decline further in the January-October period as COVID-19 outbreaks flared up and cities imposed new virus curbs, including targeted lockdowns, dampening economic activity. Profits declined for 22 of China’s 41 major industrial sectors. Sectors showing the steepest declines included the petroleum, coal and fuel processing industry which saw profits tumble 70.9%. Some sectors that have seen strong profit growth saw the pace of growth slow significantly. Last month, China’s industrial output surged 5.0% from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 5.2% gain in a Reuters poll and slowing from the 6.3% growth seen in September.

☆ Global markets fall after protests erupt in China over Covid lockdowns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Global markets fell on Monday after widespread protests in China against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions roiled investor sentiment. The markets tumble comes after protests erupted across China in an unprecedented show of defiance against the country’s stringent and increasingly costly zero-Covid policy. US stock futures — an indication of how markets are likely to open — fell, with Dow futures down 0.3%, or 108 points. Oil prices dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. US crude futures fell 2.7% to trade at $74.22 a barrel.

☆ China's industrial profits fall at faster pace in Jan-Oct
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Jan-Oct industrial profits -3.0% y/y vs -2.3% in Jan-SeptemberBEIJING, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Profits at China's industrial firms fell at a faster pace in January-October as a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and a deepening property crisis weighed on factory activity and demand. Industrial profits fell 3.0% in the first 10 months of 2022 from a year earlier, after a 2.3% slump in January-September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Sunday. Likewise, analysts from Oxford Economics also cut their 2022 and 2023 GDP forecasts as they believe a broadening of lockdown measures is expected. Last month, China's industrial output surged 5.0% from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 5.2% gain in a Reuters poll and slowing from the 6.3% growth seen in September. Industrial profit data covers large firms with annual revenues above 20 million yuan from their main operations.

☆ Dollar headed for weekly loss as investors brace for slower Fed hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen jumped roughly 0.7% overnight, and last bought 138.60 per dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index stood at 105.94, testing its three-month trough of 105.30 hit last week. read moreThe euro was 0.06% lower at $1.04045, but remained close to $1.0481, its highest level in over four months hit last week. The kiwi slid 0.19% to $0.6252, but that was not far off its three-month peak hit in the previous session. The New Zealand dollar was headed for a weekly gain of more than 1.5%, aided by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 75 bp rate hike earlier in the week and its hawkish rate outlook.

"The Egyptian pound will likely remain under pressure until more U.S. dollar inflows from GCC (Gulf nations) and committed foreign direct investment materialises," said Carla Slim at Standard Chartered Bank. Last month's IMF deal has provided some respite. ,"Egypt has got a high debt load and arguably it is more vulnerable even than Pakistan in terms of debt payments as a share of revenues," said Renaissance Capital's chief economist Charlie Robertson. "But the difference is, it has been proactive and been quick to go to the IMF," Robertson added, noting Egypt also has strong support from rich Gulf countries. Egypt's IMF negotiations dragged on for seven months and drove its second big devaluation of the year.

Emerging economies started hiking before the Fed, and quickly, partly because their currencies had weakened against the dollar, raising funding costs and importing inflation. That had quickly fed through to prices, especially energy and some food commodities that are generally traded in dollars. "Total reserves in the emerging markets had fallen by over $400 billion, down 7%, this year as of September." ECB & BOJAt the ECB, the Fed's signal bolsters an already strong case for more measured rate hikes after back-to-back 75 basis point moves and eases growth concerns. Slower Fed rate hikes also help the Bank of Japan, whose ultra-low rates have been criticised for fuelling a sharp yen decline that inflates the cost of imports.

☆ Morning Bid: COVID vs RRR
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu:Another central bank pivots. This has aided the risk-on mood in the market, with Asian shares mostly advancing and U.S. dollar broadly weaker. The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting showed a "substantial majority" of policymakers reckon it will "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of rate hikes. China's COVID infections hit a record high, with Beijing, which has the strictest rules, failing to contain the spreading virus. "In our view, ending zero COVID as soon as possible is the key to raising credit demand and bolstering growth."

☆ China COVID infections hit record as economic outlook darkens
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, Nov 24 (Reuters) - China reported a record high number of COVID-19 infections on Thursday, with cities nationwide imposing localised lockdowns and other curbs that are darkening the outlook for the world's second largest economy. The brokerage cut its GDP forecast for the fourth quarter to 2.4% year-over-year from 2.8%, and also cut its forecast for full-year growth to 2.8% from 2.9%. China recorded 31,444 new local COVID cases for Wednesday, breaking the record set on April 13, when Shanghai was in a city-wide lockdown that would last two months. China stocks fell on Thursday as concerns over the record-high caseload overshadowed optimism from fresh economic stimulus. The bank has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for next year to 4.0% from 4.3%.

☆ China may have 'passed the point of no return' as Covid infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING — Surging Covid infections across mainland China make it harder for the government to achieve zero-Covid without reverting to a harsh lockdown, Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu said. Larry Hu Chief China economist, Macquarie“China might have already passed the point of no return, as it's unlikely to achieve zero Covid again without another Shanghai-style hard lockdown," Hu said in a report Tuesday. flatten the curve, by tightening the Covid controls for the time being." He said Vietnam's unwinding of its Covid restrictions since fall last year could shed light on the path forward for China. Covid controls tighten in Beijing

☆ Premarket stocks: Is the dollar's relentless rise coming to an end?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

At last, however, its breakneck rally could be coming to an end. Last week, investors turned bearish on the greenback for the first time since July 2021, according to data from Societe Generale. First, there was the surprising inflation data in the United States, which showed that prices rose more slowly than expected in October. If these economies perform better than expected, the United States won’t look like the only game in town — and other currencies could look appealing again. About 261,000 positions were added in October, and by next summer, the bank expects monthly gains of closer to 50,000.

REUTERS/Thomas PeterBEIJING, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Beijing shut parks and museums on Tuesday while more Chinese cities resumed mass testing for COVID-19, as China fights a fresh nationwide spike in cases that has deepened concerns about its economy. In the capital Beijing, cases have hit a fresh record high, prompting calls for more residents to stay put. There were two new deaths attributed to COVID-19, compared with three over the weekend, which were China's first since May. Beijing reported 1,438 new local cases, up from 962 on Sunday. "Reopening could be back and forth as policymakers may back down after observing rapid increases in cases and social disruptions.

☆ Nomura warns seven emerging economies face currency crisis danger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Nomura has warned that seven countries - Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary - are now at a high risk of currency crises. Based on data from 61 different EM currency crises since 1996, Nomura estimates that a score above 100 indicates a 64% chance of a currency crisis in the following 12 months. Default-stricken Sri Lanka and currency crisis-regular Turkey both generate scores of 138, while the Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary notch 126, 120 and 100 respectively. Nomura also ran the Damocles model on the G7 group of leading economies, with the results showing that all but Japan now have Damocles scores above the 100 threshold, led by the United States and Britain. "It is somewhat surprising that there have not been more full-blown EM currency crises this year," Nomura added.

☆ Rise in Indian corporate lending signals new investment cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Private investment in India was constrained for years by heavy indebtedness of companies and banks and by weak demand. SBI expects its stock of corporate loans to rise by between 14% and 15% this year and by 12% a year on average in 2023 and 2024. read moreAcross India's banking sector, lending has been rising steadily. Muralikrishna, chief general manager for large corporate lending at Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS), India's second-largest state-owned lender. Dixon Technologies (DIXO.NS), an electronics manufacturer with annual revenue of about 150 billion rupees ($1.85 billion), will receive incentives under the scheme for setting up facilities in five sectors, including electronics. Already, October exports were lower than a year earlier, and Nomura economists cautioned in a note this week that India's investment cycles were closely linked to its export cycles.

☆ ECB to begin great cash mop-up as banks repay billions in loans
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While this early TLTRO reimbursement is voluntary, the ECB has given banks an incentive to get rid of those loans by taking away a rate subsidy last month. Analysts expect banks to repay around half a trillion euros worth of TLTRO loans at this week's window - the first of several - which would make this the biggest drop in excess liquidity since records began in 2000. MONEY MARKETSThe other area of focus for the ECB will be money markets, in which banks lend to each other for a short time. But Marco Brancolini, a strategist at Nomura, said he did not see "much of an impact" even if banks repaid 600 billion euros. Banks had until Nov. 16 to notify the ECB about their intention to repay TLTRO loans, but the reimbursement will only take place on Nov. 23.

☆ UK bond dealers see jump in gilt issuance for 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However in the 2023/24 financial year, gilt issuance is expected to jump to 238 billion pounds, according to the median poll forecast, the second highest ever after the 486 billion pounds of issuance in 2020/21 to fund COVID-19 support measures. “It feels like there shouldn’t be too many surprises, but the gilt market remains febrile, and even small news could create oversized reactions,” he said. Gilt issuance is distinct from public sector net borrowing (PSNB), the main borrowing measure forecast by Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility. Here GEMMs expect PSNB, excluding public-sector banks, to rise to a median 187 billion pounds, almost double the 99 billion pounds forecast by the OBR in March. Next year it is forecast to fall to 142 billion pounds, versus an OBR forecast of 50.2 billion pounds.

☆ Special Report: FTX's Bankman-Fried begged for a rescue even as he revealed huge holes in firm's books
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Angus Berwick Anirban Sen Elizabeth Howcroft Lawrence Delevingne | Angus Berwick | Anirban Sen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +22 min

Sequoia was shocked at the amount of money Bankman-Fried needed to save FTX, according to the sources, while Apollo first asked for more information, only to later decline. The booklet flagged the risks of crypto trading, particularly how sudden sales of tokens could trigger a "domino effect" that would lead to a "cascading set of liquidity failures." Using profits from Alameda, Bankman-Fried launched FTX in 2019. From almost nothing in 2019, FTX handled about 10% of global crypto trading this year, a September document shows. At one point, he lived in a penthouse overlooking the Caribbean, valued at almost $40 million, according to two people who worked with FTX.

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