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Beware of these S&P 500 stocks expected to struggle
  + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Investors may want to consider dumping some stocks expected to underperform going forward, especially as market volatility remains elevated. Bleach maker Clorox made the list with an average analyst rating of underweight. The transportation stock has an average rating of hold, and 25% of analysts covering it rate it as sell. The average analyst price target on C.H. Other stocks that made our list are Pinnacle West Capital , Expeditors International of Washington , Consolidated Edison and T. Rowe Price .
Ever wonder why Walmart is classified as a consumer staples stock in the S&P 500, but similar retailers such as Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are classified as consumer discretionary stocks? Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree will move from the consumer discretionary corner of the stock market, and join Walmart as consumer staples companies. Consumer staples will get bigger; consumer discretionary will get a little smaller. If you're an investor in a broadly diversified total market index fund like the S&P 500, the changes will make little difference to you. "Are they reflecting changes in consumer demand or the changes in the marketplace structure?"
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WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding and permits for future construction rebounded in February, offering hope that the housing market was probably stabilizing after being hammered by higher mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 830,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Single-family homebuilding increased in the Northeast and West, but tumbled in the densely populated South as well as the Midwest. Single-family housing starts dropped 31.6% on a year-on-year basis in February. The inventory of single-family housing under construction fell 1.7% to a rate of 734,000 units.
Morning Bid: Deep breaths as banks calm, but only a bit
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The Federal Reserve is considering tougher rules and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed suddenly last week. Strengthened rules on banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion range could ape those for larger more systemic banks and involve stringent capital and liquidity requirements or beefed up annual "stress tests". Even though reports abounded of depositor flight from the smaller weaker banks to the larger financial firms, stock prices in the sector at large caught a breath. The VIX equity volatility gauge (.VIX) hugged Tuesday's close at 23. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to 44. "But given recent instability concerns in the banking system and volatility in interest rates, builders are highly uncertain about the near- and medium-term outlook." Of the index's three components, current sales conditions rose two points to 49, and buyer traffic rose three points to 31. Accordingly, the housing market continues shifting as growing household and family formation continued to drive demand against a chronic supply shortage." In the South it rose five points to 45, and in the West it moved four points higher to 34.
Photo illustration, the Silicon Valley Bank logo is visible on a smartphone, with the stock market index in the background on the personal computer on March 14, 2023, in Rome, Italy. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday lowered its 2023 economic growth forecast, citing a pullback in lending from small- and medium-sized banks amid turmoil in the broader financial system. "Small and medium-sized banks play an important role in the US economy," the analysts wrote. "Any lending impact is likely to be concentrated in a subset of small and medium-sized banks." The analysts assume that small banks with a low share of FDIC-covered deposits will reduce new lending by 40% and that other small banks will reduce new lending by 15%, leading to a 2.5% drag on total bank lending.
REUTERS/Mike SegarCheck out the companies making the biggest moves midday:Regional banks —Shares of regional banks plummeted following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Citi , Bank of America , Goldman Sachs — Shares of major banks also saw losses after the closure of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Moderna — The biotechnology company's shares gained nearly 6% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform. Spot gold passed the key level of $1,900 as investors bet the Federal Reserve may tone down rate hikes on the heels of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. Over the weekend, NBC News reported that the e-commerce company warned sellers that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is causing delays in processing payments.
Bank stocks rebounded somewhat after getting pummeled during Monday's trading session. U.S. stock futures rose on Monday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a fifth day of losses. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell after a plan to backstop depositors in Silicon Valley Bank failed to buoy bank stocks, as well as the S&P 500 . On the other hand, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, rising 0.45%, as some investors bet the collapse at Silicon Valley Bank could mean a pause in future interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Due out Tuesday before the bell, the February consumer price index is expected to show a rise of 0.4% last month, according to consensus estimates from Dow Jones.
ZURICH, March 10 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) shares hit a new all-time low in early trading on Friday as the European banking sector suffered the fallout from a sharp sell-off in U.S. financial stocks. The embattled bank's stock fell to 2.463 Swiss francs on the Swiss Market Index amid the sell-off. Rival UBS (UBSG.S) was down 4.7% as European banking stocks headed for their largest one-day fall in nine months. Europe's STOXX banking index (.SX7P) was down 4.2% and set for its biggest one-day slide since early June, with declines for most major names including HSBC (.HSBA.L) down 4.5% and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) off 7.9%. Reporting by John Revill; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Daily notional volumes in these 0DTE options that track the S & P 500 recently reached a record above $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan data. The Wall Street bank conducted an experiment to see the impact of these options during a sudden drop in the broader market. "The estimated market impacts from 0D option unwind exceed the original market shocks in all scenarios, highlighting the reflexive nature of the 0D options and their potential risk posed to market stability," JPMorgan said. The S & P 500 pulled back by 2.6% in February after rallying more than 6% in the prior month. In early March, the broader market index is up by more than 2%.
A fund once led by an investing great known for finding opportunities in distressed assets is beating the market — but with a somewhat different focus. The Third Avenue Value Fund (TVFVX) outperformed the S & P 500 in 2022, rising 11.2% while the broad-market index shed 19.4%. 'Go where the opportunities are' Fine said that can happen by looking at both country and industry trends. The fund had just over 40% and 30% of its holdings in small- and mid-cap companies, respectively, at the end of 2022. portfolio manager Matt Fine Fine was able to work under Whitman and eventually take over the value fund, which is one of the first the company created, in 2017, a year before Whitman died.
The S & P 500 is flirting with a key resistance area that, if broken, could mean some more downside for stocks, say analysts who watch charts. The 200-day for the S & P 500 is at 3,940. In early trading, S & P 500 futures traded lower. Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, said the 200-day will likely be broken, meaning the S & P 500 will close below that level and stay there for awhile. "We now see [the S & P 500] going to 3800 or low 3800s ...
A buy signal is about to flash for stocks, Bank of America said Wednesday. The S&P 500 is hovering close to the firm's year-end target of 4,000. Investors should take a look at "old economy" sectors like materials and energy. "But we do see stock selection opportunities, particularly in old economy sectors that have been starved of capital for 10+ years." The sector, which has a nearly 3% weighting on the S&P 500, is also most exposed to China's reopening after its extensive COVID lockdowns.
Despite the downturn, some stocks were able to buck the trend and post gains of more than 20%. Still, investors should be careful when looking at the biggest winners this month because some of those top stocks aren't expected to continue rallying. The company also issued expectations for first-quarter revenue that was above the consensus estimate of analysts polled by FactSet. Meta Platforms and Fortinet are the only two among the top 10 performers expected to add more share value over the next year than each did in February alone. Similarly liked by just over half of analysts, Fortinet's average price target implies the stock could gain another 19.3% over the next 12 months.
Nvidia and software stock Ansys were the best performers this week, rising more than 7% each. Analysts see the stock trading in a tight range going forward, however, with the average price target for Nvidia implying upside of just 5%, FactSet data shows. Analysts expected earnings of $2.82 per share on revenue of $647 million, according to StreetAccount. The company's first-quarter earnings per share forecast of $1.53 to $1.71 after adjustments also topped a consensus estimate of $1.41 per share. Earlier this week, Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin said the stock could gain roughly 20% going forward.
RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina maintained a base-case scenario for the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,100. But she told Bloomberg TV that the broad market index could reach 4,500, representing upside of more than 12%. But inflation would have to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Other analysts have warned investors to prepare for a steep stock market downturn on expectations the Federal Reserve is set to lift rates even higher than expected, not ease them. Fundstrat's Tom Lee published a note on Wednesday, saying that most of the Fed's previous tightening cycles coincided with stock market advances.
Don't expect the market's early 2023 momentum to last, JPMorgan Chase warned. The S & P 500 is up more than 6% since the start of the year, recovering some of the lost ground from 2022. Further gains will be harder to come by as warning signs continue to mount, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note. The Fed hiked rates at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting by 25 basis points, down from 50 basis points at its December meeting. Subramanian upgraded materials to overweight from underweight and communication services to market weight from underweight.
However, defensive stocks are likely to better withstand a market downturn given their strong balance sheet and consistent revenue stream. With that in mind, CNBC Pro looked for Wall Street's favorite defense stocks. At least 60% of the analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, per FactSet. Visa and Mastercard have more than 70% of the analysts covering the stocks rating them a buy. The stock has 17% upside to the average analyst price target and 68% of analysts covering it rate the name a buy.
Feb 15 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a second straight month in February - and by much more than economists had anticipated - in a fresh signal the housing market was turning a corner after last year's huge slump. The reading - the highest since September - was also higher than all 33 projections in a Reuters survey of economists, which had a median estimate of 37. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Moreover, it appears that the peak in mortgage rates has passed, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. NAHB said all four regions saw improved sentiment and the index tracking expectations for future sales rose for a third month.
America's homebuilders are growing more bullish as buyer demand picks up, driven in part by slightly lower mortgage rates. Homebuilder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in February rose seven points to 42, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is the highest reading since September and the largest monthly gain since June 2013. The index stood at 81 in February of last year, before mortgage rates began to rise. Builders say affordability is improving, as mortgage rates fall back from their highs of last fall and start to settle in a narrow range.
U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday night following the release of January's hotter-than-anticipated consumer price index. Inflation data for January came slightly above economists' estimates, indicating a potentially longer path in the Federal Reserve's fight against rising prices. Commenting on the monthly uptick in inflation data, Yardeni added, "I think we're going to have some bumps along the road. Key inflation data will also be announced on Wednesday. Investors will also be looking toward the latest retail sales data to gauge consumer demand and retail inflation.
How to Invest in the S&P 500
  + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +9 min
The S&P 500 index, short for Standard & Poor’s 500 index, is one of the most widely traded and talked about stock indexes in the world. The Largest S&P 500 Index Funds Ticker Symbols Expense Ratio Fund Size Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund VOO, VFFSX, VFIAX 0.010%-0.040% $792 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY 0.095% $380 billion Fidelity 500 Index Fund FXAIX 0.015% $374 billion iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV 0.030% $307 billion Vanguard Institutional Index Fund VINIX, VIIIX 0.020%-0.035% $238 billion Morningstar DirectS&P 500 mutual funds vs. S&P 500 ETFsAnother thing to consider is whether you want to buy a traditional mutual fund or an exchange-traded fund, which trades like a stock. Equal weight, value or ESG S&P 500 fundsMoreover, if you’re concerned about the heavy weighting of certain sectors in the S&P index you can invest instead in an equal weight S&P 500 index fund or add those shares to your portfolio. Alternatively, you can buy an S&P 500 value fund, which represents stocks that are considered undervalued or an S&P 500 growth fund, which represents the fastest-growing companies in the S&P 500. Another variation on the S&P 500 index theme incorporates ESG (environmental, social and governance) values while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500.
DBS Chief Executive Piyush Gupta said in the bank's results statement that interest rate increases are likely to moderate, but he doesn't expect rate cuts this year. We expect confidence to return to markets in the coming year as interest rate increases ease and China reopens," Gupta said. DBS reported a total net interest margin, a key gauge of profitability, of 2.05% for the latest quarter, up from 1.43% in the same period a year earlier. DBS' annual profit soared 20% to a record S$8.2 billion. Smaller peers OCBC (OCBC.SI) and UOB (OCBC.SI), which report results next week, are also expected to post a sharp rise in annual profits, but quarter-on-quarter earnings are seen as being flat to slightly lower.
The billionaire investor and Carlyle cofounder also forecast superior returns in private markets than public ones, and underlined the global growth opportunities for private equity. Trying to get to 2% and getting there quickly, you're going to almost certainly get a very high unemployment rate." "When you don't know if you're going into a recession or not, it tends to freeze markets. The largest part of the population of the world still has relatively modest penetration of private equity. (Rubenstein pointed to China, India, Latin America, Africa, and especially the Middle East as attractive growth markets for private equity.)
MSCI’s Adani cut signals fat tail risks for India
  + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Hindenburg founder Nathan Anderson sees MSCI's move as a validation of his group’s findings of “stock parking” by Adani. The Securities and Exchange Board of India, headed by former banker Madhabi Puri Buch, acknowledged unusual price movements this month, but without naming the Adani group. But the longer the controversy drags on, there will be a fat tail risk for Adani and all his stakeholders. CONTEXT NEWSGlobal index provider MSCI on Feb. 9 cut its determined free floats for four Adani companies. It reduced those of Adani Enterprises, Adani Total Gas, Adani Transmission and ACC, and said any resulting changes will be implemented at the close of Feb. 28.
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