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☆ Festivity on hold for stocks as rate hikes loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.1%. Japan will consider revising a 2% inflation target agreed between the government and central bank next year, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The yen has been the worst-performing G10 currency this year, with a 15% loss against the dollar, driven mainly by the gap between rising U.S. rates and anchored Japanese rates. U.S. rates were steady last week, despite the Fed projecting further hikes ahead, as traders fret that interest rates are already high enough to start hurting economic growth. It is down 20% for the year and has failed in several attempts at sustainably trading above its 200-day moving average.

☆ Festivity on hold for stocks as rate hikes beckon
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1% in early trade and the yen , which rose about 0.5% to 136.00 per dollar, was the biggest mover in quiet currency trade. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.4%. The yen has been the worst-performing G10 currency this year, with a 15% loss against the dollar, driven mainly by the gap between rising U.S. rates and anchored Japanese rates. U.S. rates were steady last week, despite the Fed projecting further hikes ahead, as traders fret that interest rates are already high enough to start hurting economic growth. It is down 20% for the year and has failed in several attempts at sustainably trading above its 200-day moving average.

☆ Asia stocks slide toward weekly loss as central banks plough on with rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Central banks are still hawkish, still intent on raising rates," said Alvin Tan, Asia currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore. "So there's a tension between the central banks being more hawkish than the market has been expecting, and that dichotomy has been emphasised over the past 48 hours by both the Fed and the European Central Bank." "This is not a pivot," she said of the smaller rate rate rise. The dollar index rose 0.9%. Gold fell against the rising dollar, dropping 1.7% to sit at $1,777 an ounce in Asia.

☆ Stocks drop as central banks meet after 'higher for longer' Fed view
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

In Europe, the Swiss National Bank delivered an expected half-point hike that brought rates to a 14-year high of 1%. ,Hot on the heels of the Swiss, the Norges Bank raised rates by a quarter-point to 2.75% and indicated it has not finished tightening monetary policy. And next up is the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates by half a point to 3.5% at 1200 GMT. Just over an hour later, the European Central Bank will also announce its rate decision. This inversion reflects concern among investors that higher interest rates could tilt the economy into recession.

☆ Asian stocks sag with dollar as hawkish Fed spurs recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Asian stocks sagged on Thursday, tracking declines on Wall Street, after the U.S. Federal Reserve projected higher interest rates for a longer period. U.S. Treasury yields remained depressed and the curve deeply inverted as traders continued to fret that tighter policy will trigger a recession. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.17%, while South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) dropped 0.92% and Australia's stock benchmark (.AXJO) fell 0.4%. "The weakening in risk assets and the flattening of the curve suggest that recession fears may be the dominant driver of market price action." The IEA raised its 2023 oil demand growth estimate to 1.7 million bpd for a total of 101.6 million bpd.

☆ Asian shares slump, dollar firms ahead of central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.1%. On Friday, Wall Street dropped, Treasury yields advanced and the dollar pared earlier losses. A U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday will set the tone for markets for the week. Economists expect core annual inflation to ease to 6.1% in November, compared with a rise of 6.3% seen in the previous month. Risk could be on the upside, after data on Friday showed producer prices had increased faster than expected, fuelling concerns the CPI report may indicate inflation is sticky and interest rates may have to stay higher for longer.

☆ Asian shares fall, dollar firms ahead of central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Friday, Wall Street dropped, Treasury yields advanced and the dollar pared earlier losses. A U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday will set the tone for markets for the week. In addition to the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce interest rate hikes, as policymakers continue to put the brakes on growth to curb inflation. In the oil market, prices rose after falling on Friday to the lowest level this year on global recession fears. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased 0.9% to $71.71 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $76.64 a barrel, 0.7% higher.

HONG KONG, Dec 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s bankers and officials fantasise about the moment China finally ditches its Covid-19 restrictions. Mainland Chinese firms account for eight of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s (0388.HK) ten largest ever IPOs. It remains faster for Chinese companies to list in Hong Kong, rather than join the long queue on the mainland. Hong Kong could also host more offerings from places like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, as Cha envisions. IPOs on the Hong Kong exchange have raised $7.1 billion so far in 2022, according to Refinitiv data for the year up to Dec. 7.

☆ Asian shares higher as dollar retreats, risk events abound
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Asian shares tracked Wall Street higher amid hopes that China's economy would pick up pace as COVID-19 curbs ease, although caution ahead of a week full of risk events, including the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, could cap sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.9% in early trade, edging closer to a three-month high hit earlier in the week. "This slowing is not a signal that the central bank's job is nearly done...the slower pace of hikes starts a new phase of the Fed's tightening cycle," said Brian Martin, head of G3 economics at ANZ. The U.S. dollar slid 0.2% against a basket of major currencies on Friday, on top of a drop of 0.4% overnight. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures surged 0.9% to $72.11 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $76.15 a barrel, 1% higher.

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Investors caught off-guard by China's dramatic COVID policy pivot are betting on both greed and fear as the economy starts to gradually reopen, snapping up shares in businesses from travel agencies and casinos to funeral companies. Providers of death care services, including Hong Kong-listed Fu Shou Yuan International Group (1448.HK), China's biggest cemetery operator and funeral service provider, have also drawn investors. The positioning for both the bright and dark side of China's COVID pivot reflects growing concerns from investors surprised by the rapid policy change, especially as COVID vaccination rates among the elderly remain relatively low. "But we still think that the way China can flatten the curve of new COVID cases without doubling down on tightening looks quite challenging." Morgan Stanley Chief China economist Robin Xing said China's economy may remain sluggish for another quarter or two, but growth will pick up after Spring.

☆ Stocks rise on hope of revived China demand, oil slips
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street rose on enthusiasm over a rally in U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies, while copper climbed on hopes of increased demand from China, its biggest consumer. "The realization that China is going to be back online and producing product will help bring down inflation and that's a good thing. Treasury yields rose as investors awaited a report next week on inflation and the Fed meeting. Global bond yields, which move inversely to price, have tumbled in recent weeks on expectations of slower growth or recessions will curb the rise in rates. Gold prices edged higher as the dollar eased and investors positioned themselves ahead of the U.S. inflation data and the Fed's policy announcements.

☆ Stocks rise on hope of revived China demand, oil wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street rose on enthusiasm over a rally in U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies, while copper climbed on hopes of increased demand from China, its biggest consumer. "The realization that China is going to be back on-line and producing product will help bring down inflation and that’s a good thing. "The bulls can spin the narrative that both inflation expectations and real yields are coming down. Treasury yields rose as investors awaited a report next week on inflation and the Fed meeting. Gold prices edged higher as the dollar eased and investors positioned themselves ahead of the U.S. inflation data and the Fed's policy announcements.

☆ Stocks, oil struggle to pull out of four-day slide
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Germany's 10-year bond yield , seen as the benchmark borrowing cost for the bloc, circled around 1.795% for most of the morning having hit a two-month low of 1.788% on Wednesday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up fractionally at 3.453%, while yield on the 30-year Treasury bond inched up to 3.445%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed more than 3% while China's tech giants Alibaba and Meituan (3690.HK) jumped 6% each. Among the main commodities, oil found its footing after a four-day drop that had taken it into the red for the year. Additional reporting by Harry Robertson; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Asia stocks edge up despite global growth worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Asian equities edged higher on Thursday, propped up by Hong Kong and China stocks even as growing fears of an economic slowdown and worries over the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes weighed on sentiment. Elsewhere in Asia, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) lost 0.67%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell to near one-month low. Also weighing on the equities market was U.S. Treasury yields, with five-year notes to 30-year bonds hovering at three-month lows. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 4.3 basis points (bps) to 3.451%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 3.4 bps to 3.448%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 3.9 bps at 4.296%.

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds lap up crude, costs and Canada
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The big consensus bet of 2023 is already in full swing - bonds are bid. With year-on-year oil price gains evaporating to zero, that is dragging inflation expectations down in lockstep. The exception was in Hong Kong, which the Hang Seng benchmark (.HSI) has now recouped all this year's underperformance versus world indices and the S&P500. The Hang Seng added another 3% on Thursday as the Hong Kong government loosened its COVID-19 curbs further. The isolation period for patients and contacts will be cut to five days from seven days and requirements for arrivals to Hong Kong to undergo daily tests will similarly be reduced to five days.

Economists said the reading pointed to elevated labor costs and inflation staying high, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates. "Slower rate hikes have been the trend globally of late, but the Fed remains a wild card. Overall, it's a fickle, anxious market ahead of next week’s Fed meeting," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. Many in the market believe inflation is moderating and bond yields have peaked, allowing the Fed and other central banks to begin slowing rate hikes when policy-makers meet next week. Gold prices rose, helped by a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields, as investors anticipate the projection of slower rate hikes at the Fed's meeting on Dec. 13-14.

☆ Stocks dip as growth fears offset China COVID shift
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Now, concerns over economic growth seem to be overtaking those over inflation," he added. The darkening economic outlook initially drove safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and longer-dated bonds but these moves partially reversed by early afternoon in Europe. In foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar reversed initial gains, as traders weighed up an uncertain economic outlook. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.35% to 105.18 after hitting earlier in the session a near one-week high, trending closer to the June 2022 low of 104.10 hit on Monday. The Canadian dollar was steady at 1.365 per dollar ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada later on Wednesday.

"Now, concerns over economic growth seem to be overtaking those over inflation," he added. The darkening economic outlook drove fresh safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar on Wednesday and longer-dated bonds extended their gains, while oil eased after a sharp fall on Tuesday. The Australian dollar was broadly steady at $0.669 despite Australian third-quarter growth coming in a bit below forecasts. The Canadian dollar was at 1.3675 per dollar ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada later on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 105.6, further above the June 2022 low of 104.1 hit on Monday.

☆ Stocks sputter as growth fears deepen despite China COVID shift
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.7%. The growth fears rallied longer-dated bonds and helped the safe-haven U.S. dollar to pause its recent retreat. That is more than 80 bps below the two-year yield as investors reckon on high rates hurting growth. The Australian dollar was broadly steady at $0.6680 despite Australian third-quarter growth coming in a bit below forecasts. The U.S. dollar index sat at 105.5.

☆ Stocks suffer biggest drop in two weeks; dollar gains on upbeat U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Asian stocks logged their sharpest declines in two weeks but the dollar held on to gains following strong U.S. data that again suggested the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate increases. Chinese stocks extended their recovery, with the broader index (.CSI300) gaining 0.6%, while Japan (.N225) was up 0.3%. Futures show the market expects U.S. short-term interest rates to peak at 5.001% in May. The dollar stayed firm versus major peers, following its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, which was helped by the strong U.S. services data. The Australian dollar regained some ground after the country's central bank raised interest rates to decade highs and stuck with a prediction of further hikes ahead, quashing any thought it was near to pausing.

☆ Stocks ease from 3-month highs, dollar firms up on strong U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Asian stocks retreated from three-month highs and the dollar held on to gains following strong U.S. data that again suggested the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate increases. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) shed 0.4%, after climbing to a three-month high in the previous session. Stocks in Korea (.KS11) and Taiwan (.TWII) traded lower, while China's broader index (.CSI300) rose 0.6% and Japan (.N225) and Hong Kong <.HSI> stocks were steady. Futures show the market expects U.S. short-term interest rates to peak at 5.001% in May. The dollar stayed firm versus major peers, following its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, which was helped by the strong U.S. services data.

Goldman Sachs forecasts 16% index returns for MSCI China (.dMICN00000PUS) and CSI300 (.CSI300) next year and recommends an overweight allocation to China, while J.P.Morgan expects a 10% potential upside in MSCI China in 2023. Morgan Stanley upgraded its recommendation to overweight on Monday with an increase in exposure to consumer stocks as reopening prospects improve. Bank of America Securities turned bullish in November, with its China equity strategist, Winnie Wu picking internet and financial stocks to lead the short-term rebound. "We have experienced several rounds of policy back and forth in 2022," she added, referring to both COVID and property policies. UBS Global Wealth Management recommends a market-neutral allocation to Chinese stocks.

Persuading households that hoarded $1.9 trillion this year to spend will be far more difficult. Cities desperately want budgetary relief from expensive testing and quarantine enforcement mandates, and revive business investment and consumption. The question is how much of a boost combined efforts to relax zero-Covid and prop up the real estate sector will have. Yet a shopping boom seems unlikely, especially if China experiences a major outbreak as a result of looser controls. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning bid: Capped
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook:The Fed is in blackout and the World Cup is starting to get serious. Positioning suggests bets against the dollar remain pretty light, and even lightened a little bit last week. Monday in Europe also marks the beginning of the G7's $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil. It's not clear what that means for oil supply and prices, because Russia says it won't abide by the measure, even if that means cutting production. On the pitch, Asia's last contenders, Japan and South Korea, take on Croatia and Brazil, respectively.

☆ Morning Bid: China reopening as volatility ebbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

What's more, Wall Street's 'fear index' is showing little if any trepidation about the final month of the year. Even though it backed up a bit today, the VIX index of implied S&P500 volatility (.VIX) closed at its lowest in 8 months on Friday. Morgan Stanley updated its China equity recommendation to overweight, citing "multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set towards reopening." China's yuan , surged past 7 to the dollar in onshore and offshore markets - its best levels in almost three months. The China re-opening optimism buoyed the oil price even as OPEC+ nations at the weekend held their targets steady despite last week's market speculation of another output cut.

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