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Morning Bid: ECB into the eye of banking storm
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookThe European Central Bank (ECB) meets today for the first big test of policymakers' response to bank stability fears that are sweeping the globe. It's not entirely clear if that's reassuring or even more worrisome, but traders have initially gone with the former. Bank stocks in Hong Kong (.HSCIF), Sydney (.AXFJ) and Tokyo (.IBNKS.T) opened down but crept from lows during the day. A big interest rate hike, even if justified by economic conditions, can unleash fear that more banks - or something else - is going to break. Either way, the outcome will test markets' dramatic repricing of the worldwide interest rate outlook in recent days.
UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) gained 0.4%, rebounding from its steepest fall in over a year on Wednesday. British banks (.FTNMX301010) gained 1.8%, after falling 5.6% in the previous session. Rentokil Initial (RTO.L) jumped 6.1% to the top of the FTSE 100 after the pest control services provider lifted its medium-term outlook after posting a better-than-expected annual profit. The more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) were subdued, though asset manager Bridgepoint Group (BPTB.L) rose 2.9% after reporting a higher revenue for 2022. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The rally is unlikely to continue in Europe with European stock futures indicating a lower open. Eurostoxx 50 futures were down 0.07%, German DAX futures up 0.01% and FTSE futures down 0.04%. "It's clearly dominated by a relief rally rather than any inflation angst," said Robert Carnell, regional head of research, Asia Pacific at ING. There were worries that stronger-than-expected data might lead the Fed to go for jumbo-sized hikes to battle inflation. Chinese shares gained with Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) 0.46% higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) up 1.75%1.4%.
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt presented less gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsROSIER OUTLOOKA rout in global banking stocks on Wednesday overshadowed many UK-specific moves. Investments announced by Hunt such as a corporate spending tax break, a boost for defence and extra childcare support were not viewed as particularly inflationary. Unlike in the last budget, noise around windfall taxes on oil and gas companies was muted in the run-up to the budget since energy prices have fallen dramatically since then. "In general, the budget is not the big story for gilts right now, global drivers are in the driving seat," said James Smith, economist at ING.
UK markets shrug off Hunt's budget; bank turmoil in focus
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - British markets, roiled by concerns about European banks after shares in Credit Suisse fell 30%, showed little reaction to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's budget on Wednesday. The pound picked up slightly against the euro as Hunt delivered the budget, in which he said Britain's official forecaster expected the economy to avoid recession this year. The euro fell to a session low of 87.25 pence as Hunt talked. However, the euro had already fallen sharply, with a big drop in European bank stocks spooking investors that were already on edge since the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank late last week. Britain's FTSE 100 (.FTSE) stock index was down 3.05%, with financial companies leading the falls.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 2.5% by 1118 GMT, languishing at 10-week lows, as was the banks sector index (.SX7P) after plunging nearly 6%. The bank index is set to lose more than 120 billion euros ($127.26 billion) in market value since the close of March 8. Shares of Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) fell below 2 Swiss francs ($2.18) after the lender's biggest shareholder said it could not raise its 10% stake, citing regulatory issues. There was also a cooling of optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tone down its rate-hiking spree next week in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse. Retailers (.SXRP) shed 5.0% after shares of Zara-owner Inditex (ITX.MC), the world's biggest fashion retailer, fell 5.2% as it flagged higher investment spending.
"Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023." MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 3%, under pressure from a rout in global bank stocks, while the domestic-focussed midcap index (.FTMC) fell 2.5%. MONEY MARKETS: UK bond yields pared some of their daily declines, with the 10-year yield last down 19 basis points at roughly 3.30%, compared with a session low of 3.289% when Hunt began talking. EDWARD PARK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BROOKS MACDONALD, LONDON:"I would view this very much as a budget for the bond market." "When the dust settles, international investors will be constructive around the type of budget we've had today, which suggests a calmer approach to managing the UK.
SummarySummary Companies Prudential at the bottom of FTSE 100Precious metal miners down over 2%Spring budget in sightFTSE 100 down 1.4%, FTSE 250 off 1.3%March 15 (Reuters) - London stocks fell on Wednesday as Prudential touched the bottom of the FTSE 100 index after its annual results, with investors awaiting the UK spring budget due later in the day. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 1.4% after jumping more than 1% on Tuesday. Prudential (PRU.L) fell 6.3% despite the Asia-focused insurer reporting an 8% jump in full-year year profit. The wider life insurance index (.FTNMX303010) fell 4.2%, hitting a near three-month low. Investors would be keenly awaiting the UK's spring budget, with Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt due to make a budget speech to parliament at around 1230 GMT.
Man Group (EMG.L), as a public company traded on London's FTSE 100 index, is a rarity among hedge funds. Large investors such as pension schemes and sovereign wealth funds use hedge funds to guard against broader market volatility. The broader HFRI Composite Index, which tracks the performance of hedge funds, rose by about 12% in 2020, according to data firm Hedge Fund Research (HFR). Over the last three years, Man Group, which uses discretionary and computer led strategies to trade, has taken in $18.7 billion of new client money and made $11.5 billion in investment gains. In 2008, Peter Clarke, the former CEO of the hedge fund, took home $14 million.
SVB contagion fears hammer banks, roil markets
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) fell more than 7%, setting it on course for its steepest drop in nearly six months. Banks shares in Singapore and Australia fell. Heavy selling hit U.S. regional bank stocks overnight and traders raced away from bets on U.S. rate hikes, reckoning the instability would turn policymakers cautious. "Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Bank stocks had run up (when) it was thought that monetary policy might normalise a bit," said Jamie Halse, who manages a Japan-focused fund at Platinum Asset Management in Sydney.
Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.
SummarySummary Companies HSBC falls after taking over SVB's UK armBritish American Tobacco down after JPM downgradeBank sector index hits over two-month lowFTSE 100 down 2.4%, FTSE 250 off 2.9%March 13 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 fell on Monday, with banks extending losses as shock waves continue to reverberate through financial markets after U.S. regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 2.4%, falling to an over two month low. UK banks (.FTNMX301010) slid 4.3%, hitting an over two-month low and extending last week's declines of over 6%. The focus is now shifting to UK's spring budget due to be unveiled later in the day. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Europe’s banking stocks suffer biggest drop in a year
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, fell 5.6% by mid-afternoon — notching its biggest fall since March last year. The broader Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 2.1%, while the bank-heavy FTSE 100 (UKX) was 2.2% down. A Brinks armored truck sits parked in front of the shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) headquarters on March 10, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. It is unclear how many unrealized losses EU and UK banks are carrying on their books. Beauchamp added that the sharper falls in European bank stocks so far seen on Monday might partly reflect their stronger performance relative to US banks this year.
Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.5% in early trading, while London’s bank-heavy FTSE 100 (UKX) index slid 1.8%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei ended Friday down 1.7% as the country’s central bank decided to keep its ultra-low interest rates unchanged. Futures on the benchmark S&P 500 (DVS) index fell 0.43%, while futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) dropped 0.2%. Wall Street wipeoutThe losses come after US bank stocks logged the largest falls in nearly three years on Thursday. The KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 leading US banks, fell 7.7%, its biggest drop in almost three years.
London CNN —London is used to punching well above its weight in global financial markets. And 70% of global secondary bond market trading happens in the city, according to the London Stock Exchange. Beyond the jobs they create and the tax they generate, financial markets also channel capital into companies to fund future growth. In other words, to safeguard its future, London needs to reinvigorate its stock markets. Those “unicorns” should be listing in London “at an earlier stage,” Haynes argues, “rather than growing through private equity and being sold off to Nasdaq.”Hoggett of the London Stock Exchange puts it this way: “London needs to be young, scrappy and hungry.”
UK banks (.FTNMX301010) dropped to an eight-week low, spooked by a brutal rout in U.S. bank SVB Financial (SIVB.O) following a share sale. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) slipped 1.9% to a five week low, while the more domestically focused mid-cap index (.FTMC) gave up 2.1% to hit a two-month low. The FTSE 100 is set to the end the week down about 2.8% in what could be its worst week since September, as worries around hawkish central banks sapped risk appetite. Next week, investors will be watching for UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's spring budget. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) fell 0.6%, and the mid-cap index (.FTMC) lost 0.7%, extending losses for a third straight session. Strengthening the case for hikes, data showed U.S. job openings fell less than expected in January. The FTSE 100 is up more than 6% so far this year, but is off more than 2% from all-time highs hit last month as investors try to assess the impact of rising interest. Among individual stocks, Rio Tinto (RIO.L) dropped 0.6% as the miner traded without dividend eligibility. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Aviva boosts investor payouts after profit beat
  + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The British insurer and asset manager said it had paid more than 5 billion pounds to investors since 2021, including a final dividend of 20.7 pence per share for 2022. The FTSE 100 company reported a 35% rise in 2022 operating profit from continuing operations to 2.2 billion pounds, up from 1.6 billion pounds the previous year. Aviva made an accounting loss of 1.1 billion pounds, compared to a 2 billion pound profit the previous year, which it blamed on adverse market movements in 2022. Following a pension scheme payment and investor payouts, this fell to an estimated 196%, the company said. The company's general insurance gross written premiums increased 8% to 9.7 billion pounds, while its fund arm Aviva Investors reported external net flows of 1.3 billion pounds, down from 3.3 billion the prior year.
Aviva hikes investor payouts after bumper operating profit beat
  + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The British insurer and asset manager said it had paid more than 5 billion pounds to investors since 2021, just topping Cevian's demand for that figure to be returned over the year. Aviva reported a 35% rise in 2022 operating profit from continuing operations to 2.2 billion pounds, up from 1.6 billion pounds the previous year and trumping analyst forecasts. However, it made an accounting loss of 1.1 billion pounds, compared to a 2 billion pound profit the previous year, which it blamed on adverse market movements in 2022. Following a pension scheme payment and investor payouts, this fell to an estimated 196%, the company said. The company's general insurance gross written premiums increased 8% to 9.7 billion pounds, while its fund arm Aviva Investors reported external net flows of 1.3 billion pounds, down from 3.3 billion the prior year.
The hawkish comments from Powell sent U.S. stocks sharply lower, with the risk-off mood continuing in Asian trade. Eurostoxx 50 futures were down 0.19%, German DAX futures fell 0.27% and FTSE futures were down 0.27%. After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in its last two meetings. "Powell has essentially opened the door to 50 basis point hike," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. Citi strategists said even as-expected payrolls and inflation data could keep the chance of a 50 basis point hike high.
The analyses of the data in the WEF's Global Gender Gap report takes into consideration gender disparity in economic opportunities, education, political empowerment, health and safety. The BofA data shows that U.S. companies with greater gender diversity have offered a median 20% higher return on equity since 2005 than those who lack it. According to consultancy firm EY, almost half of European financial services investors state that gender diversity in the boardroom significantly influences their decision to invest in a company. For senior executive roles, gender parity still looks out of reach. U.S. companies focused on gender diversity on boards and senior executive level have achieved 43% lower earnings risk in subsequent three years than those who lack such diversity, BofA said, citing its own analysis.
Female entrepreneurs’ glass ceiling is intact
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MILAN, March 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The glass ceiling that holds back female entrepreneurs remains intact. Yet despite representing 40% of new business founders in the United States, female entrepreneurs capture only a fraction of available venture capital cash. A tendency by venture capital funds to shun female entrepreneurs risks hobbling their contribution to the global economy. Helping female entrepreneurs to rise to the top will be beneficial to women and to the world. In 2021, female entrepreneurs made up 40% of total in the United States, data from the Kauffman Foundation shows.
Data on Tuesday showed China's exports and imports both fell sharply in January-February, reflecting a slowdown in the global economy and weak domestic demand. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.3%, although the index is up 2.9% so far this month. Beyond China, investor focus remains on the U.S. interest rate outlook and what Powell may say. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.88% compared with a U.S. close of 4.894%. In early European trade, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up 0.12%, German DAX futures rose 0.11% at and FTSE futures were 0.23% higher.
Most investors would say it's a growth stock, because it has the traditional characteristics of a growth stock: earnings are growing. But Microsoft is now being classified as partly a growth stock by Standard & Poors, and partly a value stock. S&P growth and value criteria: It's not that simpleThe S&P rebalances its growth and value indexes every year at the end of December. Growth ETFs in 2023 (year to date)Vanguard Growth (VUG) up 11.30%iShares S&P Growth ETF (IVW) up 5.6%iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IVW) up 9.2%However, these are unusually large discrepancies, Ullal said. But 30 years ago, issues like what is a value stock and what is a growth stock were largely determined by specialized stock pickers who set up mutual funds and hedge funds to attract investors.
The export-oriented FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 0.2% and the more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 (.FTSE) was flat by 9:25 GMT. Copper prices were in the red as top consumer China set a lower-than-expected gross domestic product target of 5%. Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLTRF.L) rose 2.4% and Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc surged 17.8% on price target raises by brokerages. Clarkson Plc (CKN.L) added 5.1% after the shipping services provider reported a strong annual profit. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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