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Morning Bid: Red wave
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The "red wave", however, showed up in markets. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 2% on Wednesday and the dollar seemed to catch a bid from a wave of cryptocurrency selling. Bonds rallied with the risk-averse mood, which opens the door for disappointment as U.S. inflation data comes into focus later on Thursday. Share markets fell around Asia, with MSCI's broadest ex-Japan index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down 1%. European futures fell 0.6%.
The closely watched inflation data, released earlier on Thursday, provides support for the central bank to dial back its hefty rate hikes, and Logan also backed such an approach. The Fed's rate-setting committee "should adjust other elements of policy to deliver appropriately tight conditions even as the pace slows. We must remain firmly committed to our 2% inflation goal," Logan said. "So far, I believe we are seeing a normal financial market response to tighter monetary policy," Logan noted. Nevertheless, it is important to remain attentive to any unexpected responses to further policy tightening, Logan said.
Morning Bid: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report. The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.
The federal agency recently sent letters to more than 9 million individuals and families who may qualify for the tax benefits but who have not yet filed a 2021 federal income tax return. Alternatively, ChildTaxCredit.gov also lets people file their 2021 federal income tax returns. watch nowThat includes a tool provided by Code for America, GetCTC.org, that will allow people to claim their 2021 child tax credits, earned income tax credits and third stimulus checks. Tax filers typically have up to three years to file their returns and claim tax credits for which they are eligible. Moreover, the notices reference two additional tax credits, the EITC and CTC, in addition to stimulus checks.
Democrats cite threats to Social Security, MedicareAs Election Day approaches, Democrats are telling voters that Social Security and Medicare may be at risk if Republicans take control of Congress. Scott has called for reauthorizing Social Security and Medicare every five years in Congress, while Johnson suggests revisiting the programs annually. Minimum wage hikes on the horizonVoters will decide this month whether to make certain raises to the minimum wage in Nebraska, Nevada and Washington, D.C. In Nebraska, the measure would ratchet up the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026, up from its current $9. The current minimum wage is $9.50 an hour or $10.50 an hour, depending on if a worker is offered health insurance.
There are two big hurdles for markets in the week ahead - another potentially hot consumer inflation report and the Congressional midterm elections. "100% of the time, the S & P 500 has been up 12 months after the midterm election." Midterm rallies Stocks tend to gain in the final months of midterm election years, and strategists have been expecting the market to move higher. CFRA Chief Market Strategist Sam Stovall said even when interest rates are climbing, the midterm election has been a catalyst for stocks. He examined market performance in other midterm election years when interest rates were going up.
He also pointed to impending risks to Social Security based on plans floated by certain Republican lawmakers, namely Sens. What's more, it would mean letting two of the most important laws that established Social Security and Medicare expire, he said. It is unclear what his opponent Kean's stance is on Social Security and Medicare. While that's in keeping with years past, the difference this year is Social Security has been more of a front-burner issue. "Usually, it's a lot of lip service to Social Security and how they think it's a great program."
As inflation has pushed the cost of living higher, those eligible for Social Security retirement benefits may be tempted to claim benefits sooner than they had planned. Social Security beneficiaries stand to get a record 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment in 2023 that will help them contend with higher costs. But you should consider the amount of benefits you may receive based on your age. For most people approaching retirement now, age 67 is when they will receive their full benefits based on their earnings history. "There are definite rules, definite deadlines and definite dates that need to be met," said David Freitag, a financial planning consultant and Social Security expert at MassMutual.
Investors who are worried about the tech sector can take comfort in the fact the current shift is not the same as the bust of 2000, according to Raymond James chief investment officer Larry Adam. watch nowThe biggest names in the pure tech sector — Apple , Microsoft and Visa — make up more than 45% of earnings in that space, according to Adam. Alphabet and Meta , which are technically in communication services, represent 53% of the earnings in that sector. "It's always about making sure you don't end up in a lopsided portfolio," Viktorin said. For example, someone who works in tech is already taking on substantial risk outside of their portfolio because their income is dependent on the sector, Viktorin said.
Fg Trade | E+ | Getty ImagesA key federal program providing benefits to elderly, blind and disabled people — Supplemental Security Income — is turning 50 years old. The program, which currently serves nearly 8 million beneficiaries, was created by legislation signed by President Richard Nixon on Oct. 30, 1972. But even as Supplemental Security Income — called SSI for short — provides crucial income for adults and children with disabilities and elderly individuals, its benefits and requirements have gone decades without major updates. That's despite the fact the population served by Social Security is eight times the size of SSI. (To be sure, some beneficiaries receive both Social Security and SSI, though their benefits are reduced for doing so.)
Mstudioimages | E+ | Getty ImagesAmericans now expect they will need $1.25 million to retire comfortably, according to a new study from Northwestern Mutual. That's not necessarily good news for individuals who have seen their retirement savings decline in the past year amid persistent high inflation and market volatility. The average retirement nest egg has fallen 11% to $86,869, down from $98,800 a year ago, Northwestern Mutual's survey found. Why people plan to work longerA quarter of Northwestern Mutual's survey respondents — 25% — plan to retire later than they had anticipated. About a quarter, 26%, are taking care of relative or friend, and 24% have had to dip into retirement savings, 24%.
Nicoletaionescu | Istock | Getty ImagesAs it has become more difficult to stretch a dollar at the grocery store and gas pump, some Americans are pulling back on one key long-term goal: retirement savings. More than half of workers — 55% — said they feel they are behind on their retirement savings, a new survey from Bankrate.com finds. watch nowThe results come as the IRS has just announced new contribution limits for retirement accounts in 2023. The limit for individual retirement accounts will go up to $6,500, up from $6,000 this year. 'Biggest financial regret' is not starting to save earlyHow to stay on track with retirement savings
Social Security benefits will go up by more than $140 per month on average in 2023, as a record 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment kicks in. Exactly how much of an increase the approximately 70 million Americans who rely on the program for income will see will vary. More than 65 million Social Security beneficiaries will see their benefit checks increase in January, while more than 7 million Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries will see bigger payments starting on Dec. 30. More from Personal Finance:IRS: Here are the new income tax brackets for 2023How much you can earn and still pay 0% capital gains taxes in 2023IRS bumps up estate tax exclusion to $12.92 million for 2023The average retiree benefit will go up by $146 per month — to $1,827 in 2023 from $1,681 in 2022. Meanwhile, the average disability benefit will increase by $119 per month — to $1,483 in 2023 from $1,364 in 2022.
Halfpoint | Istock | Getty ImagesRetirees who rely on Social Security benefits for income will get some relief from record high inflation when an 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment kicks in next year. How Social Security benefits are taxedSocial Security benefits are taxed based on a formula known as "combined" or "provisional" income. That is calculated by taking your adjusted gross income and adding non-taxable interest and half of your Social Security benefits. Taxes on Social Security benefits apply to single taxpayers starting with $25,000 in combined income, and married taxpayers starting with $32,000 in combined income. watch nowFor individuals with more than $34,000 in combined income and couples with over $44,000, up to 85% of their Social Security benefits may be taxed.
More than 9 million individuals and families could be leaving money on the table by not filing a 2021 federal tax return, according to the IRS. Last week, the federal tax agency began sending letters to those people it had identified who could be missing out on payments through tax credits that could put money in their pockets. More from Personal Finance:Why some have yet to receive enhanced child tax credit paymentsWho benefits most from expanded earned income tax creditOptimism monthly child tax credit checks can be renewedThe American Rescue Plan that was enacted in 2021 authorized the stimulus checks through the Recovery Rebate Credit and also made existing child tax and earned income tax credits more generous. "The IRS wants to remind potentially eligible people, especially families, that they may qualify for these valuable tax credits," IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said in a statement. Millions of eligible taxpayers fail to claim the credits for which they are eligible every year.
Social Security's average retiree benefit will go up by $146 per month in 2023, thanks to a record 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment prompted by high inflation. More than 70 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries will benefit from those higher payments. The increased costs may prompt Social Security's funds to reach insolvency at least one calendar year earlier than the trustees have projected, according to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Other experts also have expressed concerns about how the increased benefit costs would affect the program. "There is certainly a good chance that this could accelerate the depletion of Social Security's primary trust fund," said Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Amid record high inflation, Social Security beneficiaries will get an 8.7% increase to their benefits in 2023, the highest increase in 40 years. The Social Security Administration announced the change on Thursday, which will result in a benefit increase of more than $140 more per month on average starting in January. The 8.7% bump to benefits tops the 5.9% increase beneficiaries saw in 2022, which at the time was the highest in four decades. The last time a higher cost-of-living adjustment was announced was in 1981, when the increase was 11.2%. Please check back for updates.
"It's the largest refundable tax credit in terms of dollar amounts," he said. David Newville senior program director at Code for AmericaYet the earned income tax credit still goes unclaimed. How to claim the EITCThe process for claiming the earned income tax credit on GetCTC.org is more involved than the child tax credit or stimulus checks. Unlike those other credits, the earned income tax credit requires at least some earned income that a worker can document with a W-2. From there, users can opt out and proceed to claim just the child tax credit and stimulus payments, if they prefer.
Your credit score can make or break your ability to open a credit card or buy a new car or home at attractive interest rates. Keeping tabs on your credit report — which outlines your debts, bill payment history and other financial information — can help you do that. The three major credit reporting agencies — Equifax, Experian and TransUnion — recently extended the availability of free weekly credit reports to consumers through the end of 2023. The reports are available at the Annual Credit Report website. While the free credit report you'll get won't show your credit score, it can offer clues in terms of how to boost that number.
Retirees who are confronting higher prices due to record high inflation may get some welcome news this week when the Social Security Administration announces the cost-of-living adjustment for 2023. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, estimated last month that the COLA could be 8.7% next year. "These are just estimates," which means the official change for 2023 could come in higher or lower, said Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League. The Senior Citizens Leagues' estimate pointed to a higher 10.5% bump to benefits next year based on June data. The annual COLA applies to both Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits.
"I want to save Social Security, Medicare and Veterans benefits." A spokeswoman for Scott pointed to a recent interview where he said his plan would help make sure people get their Social Security benefits. Specific plans from both parties are needed to secure the future of both Social Security and Medicare, she said. Due to high inflation, estimates show the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is poised to be the highest in decades, according to The Senior Citizens League. One more month of consumer price index data will come in before the official bump for next year is announced by the Social Security Administration.
Yet many individuals and families eligible for the child tax credit, as well as another called the earned income tax credit, may not have received the money for which they are entitled. The child tax credit and earned income tax credit are aimed at helping low- and moderate-income families. The child tax credit was established for the purpose of helping parents pay for their children's needs. watch nowThe earned income tax credit supplements wages for low- to moderate income workers. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau found the expanded child tax credit helped reduce child poverty by more than 40% between 2020 and 2021.
It wants to achieve a soft landing — that Goldilocks ideal of cooling the economy enough to bring down prices but not enough to cause a recession. The new aim appears to be for a so-called growth recession: A prolonged period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The pain is sharper and lasts longer than that of a soft landing, but a “growth” recession doesn’t pull the entire economy into contraction the way a proper recession would. It looks like a recession, and feels like a recession, but it isn’t a recession — at least not officially. A growth recession is still painful.
NBC | Getty ImagesOnline savings accountsThe September rate hike is already sending some online savings accounts higher. Notably, that interest rate growth is concentrated in online accounts, while savings at brick-and-mortar banks have not moved much at all. Credit unions, which also offer savings accounts, have also been more aggressive in keeping pace with the central bank's rate hikes. Series I bonds currently offer a 9.62% interest rate, which experts acknowledge is hard to beat elsewhere. The money cannot be cashed out in the first year, and if you withdraw before five years you lose three months' interest.
There are steps you can take now to ward off any negative impact a downturn could have on your finances. "This can help weather the storm without having to tap into retirement assets or using high interest rate credit cards or loans," Wallace said. Paying down credit cards generally comes after establishing an emergency fund, due to the relief extra cash can bring in a downturn, Wallace said. The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes will push the cost of unpaid balances even higher. Even asking your current credit card company for a lower interest rate may work.
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