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☆ Morning Bid: Breathtaking Powell jolts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Rate markets are still scrambling to re-set and even the White House seemed taken aback by what it hoped would not be an overreaction to the surprisingly robust start to the new year. "But we're dealing with one month of data and people need to sit back and take a breath." The frenetic activity saw the measure of implied Treasury market volatility (.MOVE) jump to its highest level this year. Sterling , the Japanese yen , China's yuan and both the Australian and Canadian dollars all hit their lowest levels of 2023. * Bank of Canada policy decision* U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's plan, China challenge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Powell's semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee is widely expected to condone the recent shift in market pricing toward more aggressive Fed rate hikes and a 'higher for longer' rate horizon. The Fed's accompanying report to Congress last week said there was clearly more work to do to curb inflation. As was the case after the last Fed meeting, Powell's unlikely to push back strongly against market re-pricing - not least ahead of the critical February employment report on Friday. Markets have scrambled to push up their bets on the likely peak Fed policy rate over recent weeks as U.S. jobs, retail and inflation soundings have run hotter than most expected. World stocks and Wall St futures were in a holding pattern for the most part ahead of the testimony.

☆ Another Norfolk Southern train derails in Ohio, railroad says no toxins aboard
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Brad Brooks | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Norfolk Southern said the train that derailed near Springfield was not carrying any hazardous materials and that no one was hurt. The accident follows the Feb. 3 derailment of a Norfolk Southern train in East Palestine, Ohio, 180 miles (290 km)northeast of Springfield. Norfolk Southern said in an emailed statement that Saturday's derailment of about 20 cars of a 212-car train happened as it was traveling southbound near Springfield. "No hazardous materials are involved and there have been no reported injuries," Norfolk Southern said. "We don't believe hazardous materials were involved," he said.

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation 'blip' or brave new world?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Federal Reserve officials wrestled on Thursday with whether recent data showing inflation, jobs and spending all hotter than expected was a flash in the pan. "It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," said Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged a "slow and steady" course of policy response. The resilience of stock markets more generally to the week's bond market quake is notable and slightly puzzling - with implied volatility in bonds (.MOVE) climbing sharply while stock market equivalents (.VIX) subside. Two-year U.S. inflation expectations in the Treasury market climbed to 3% from 2% since early last month.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

☆ George Santos' mysterious new treasurer is unknown to local politicians but lists his address as the apartment where Santos' sister used to live
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rep. George Santos' federal political committees listed a mysterious new treasurer, CNN reported. Curiously, the treasurer's address is listed as the apartment where Santos' sister used to live. The address has also previously been listed by Santos himself as his address on campaign documents. Employees at three businesses in the building told CNN that Andrew Olson was not a name they recognized. CNN's Manu Raju approached Santos on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to ask about Olson, but Santos did not answer any questions.

☆ Morning Bid: Ten-four, Treasury yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The remarkable sight of 10-year Treasury yields back above 4% for the first time in almost four months is only matched by two-year yields at 15-year highs stalking 5%. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the latest Fed speakers take on unusual importance in such a febrile rates market. And 6% Fed rates that seemed fanciful only a month ago are now being openly discussed by banks. Despite year-on-year oil prices now tracking declines of 25%, European inflation fears are a key feature of this week's nervousness. Benchmark German 10-year bond yields soared to 11-year highs at 2.77%.

☆ The problem with home-flipping giants
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Aj Latrace | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Meanwhile, the corporate scalpers of the housing market — companies that buy and relist homes by the thousands without doing much, if any, work on them to make a profit — are struggling. Last week, two of the biggest remaining corporate home-flipping companies, Opendoor and Offerpad, reported dismal earnings, another sign that their business model is incredibly risky. Kelman also said one "problem is that iBuying is a staggering amount of money and risk for a now-uncertain benefit. At its core, the main business model of home-flipping firms doesn't create a ton of immediate value. Opendoor, Offerpad, and other companies that rushed to purchase homes are now discounting the asking prices of those homes to get them off their books.

And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets March on China boomlet
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

And after a bruising setback for stocks and bonds in February, investors now have to assess whether the unfolding economic rebound is sustainable given the eye-watering revision that it's forcing in inflation and interest rate expectations. This is emboldening both the hawks at the European Central Bank and markets keen to re-price the interest rate horizon. Money markets have already moved beyond that and now price peak ECB rates at year-end almost 150 bps higher at 3.90%. Even though U.S. consumer confidence and housing data on Tuesday questioned some of the reheating narrative, markets now assume peak Federal Reserve rates will be as high as 5.42% by July. And homebuilder Persimmon (PSN.L) dropped almost 10% after it warned the housing slowdown and higher mortgage rates would hit profit and home-building targets.

☆ Rail unions tell Biden officials workers have fallen ill at Norfolk Southern derailment site
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pete Buttigieg, US transportation secretary, speaks during a news conference near the site of the Norfolk Southern train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, US, on Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023. The presidents of U.S. railroad unions told Biden administration officials that rail workers have fallen ill at the Norfolk Southern derailment site in East Palestine, Ohio, in a push for more train safety. The meeting comes on the heels of letters sent to both the DOT and the FRA Wednesday in which union representations claimed rail workers had gotten sick at the derailment site. According to the letter, Norfolk Southern rail workers who have worked or continue to work the cleanup site have reported experiencing "migraines and nausea." One worker reportedly asked his supervisor to be transferred off the derailment site because of his symptoms, but never heard back from his supervisor and was left at the job site.

☆ Morning Bid: Irksome inflation won't die down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's latest U.S. inflation surprise was matched in Europe on Tuesday, with French and Spanish headline inflation rates unexpectedly rising again in February - making for an uncomfortable final day of a transformative month for markets. And worryingly, market-based measures of inflation expectations are rising sharply again too. U.S. two-year 'breakeven' inflation rates , taken from inflation-protected Treasury securities, have jumped 80 basis points this month to 2.8% - wiping away the prior assumption that inflation would return to the Fed's 2% target over two years. In Europe, the five year, five-year forward inflation linked swap has jumped 20bps to a 9-month high just under 2.5%. Stock markets steadied after early losses, with U.S. futures only slightly in the red ahead of the open and month end.

☆ The battle over abortion access could return to the ballot box in four states in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Madison Hall | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Millions of Americans lost legal access to abortion after the overturn of Roe v. Wade. The GOP used state ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriage to juice turnout, including in the critical state of Ohio. "The majority of Arizonans support safe, legal abortion, and we need to roll back many of the restrictions that are in place now." Two abortion rights groups are teaming up to put the question before voters in 2024. The ballot box might also be abortion rights advocates' best hope as the unicameral legislature appears to be on the verge of breaking a filibuster to pass a 6-week abortion ban.

☆ Morning Bid: Long March ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"If it goes down that road it will come at real costs to China," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN. China said on Monday it sought dialogue and peace for Ukraine despite the U.S. warnings. European stocks and U.S. futures recaptured some ground on Monday but the DXY dollar index briefly hit its highest since Jan. 6. The new U.S. interest rate horizon remains jarring, however. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) on Saturday reported its highest-ever annual operating profit, even as foreign currency losses and rising interest rates contributed to lower earnings in the fourth quarter.

First Nations ice fishermen risk going out on ice as climate change affects the quality of the ice. He blames climate change for the unseasonal weather and worries ice fishing season will only get shorter in future. "People tell us across the board they would like more traditional food but there are barriers, and one of them is climate change," Batal said. Families in communities like Kitigan Zibi wind up spending more in grocery stores to supplement their diet. Reporting by Blair Gable in Kitigan Zibi and Nia Williams in British Columbia Editing by Denny Thomas and Rosalba O'BrienOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Residents are reportedly getting sick in Ohio town where train derailed with toxic chemicals: 'It's pretty bad'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Sarah Al-Arshani | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A train derailed in East Palestine, Ohio earlier this month, leading to the release of toxic chemicals. Now, medical records reviewed by NBC News show illnesses in some residents stemming from likely chemical exposure. The Norfolk Southern train derailed on February 5 and had about 150 cars, of which 20 were carrying hazardous materials, Insider previously reported. The crash resulted in a fire that burned chemicals in derailed train cars. Other symptoms consistent with chemical exposure include headaches, nausea and rashes, which have been reported by residents, NBC News reported.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

At its latest meeting, the Fed laced its statement and minutes with a rider about cumulative tightening and uncertain lags. The gist of the argument is that the Fed doesn't deliver credit directly to the wider economy - banks and financial markets do. But few seem to doubt that these policy lags have shortened considerably over the decades. Showcasing the study in December, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly adopted a more dovish slant on the gap between the funds rate and tightening financial markets. "But investors should remain attentive to the occasional episodic disconnects observed between Fed guidance and some prominent indices of financial conditions," Clarida told clients.

☆ Videos show Ohio politicians gingerly sipping tap water near chemical train crash, hoping to convince locals to start drinking it again
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Videos show several Ohio politicians gingerly sipping on tap water near a toxic train derailment. "I'll tell you, we believe in science, so we don't feel like we're being your guinea pig," Regan told Carolyn Brown, whose house they were in. "But we don't mind proving to you that we believe the water is safe," Regan continued. "That's pretty good water," Regan said after drinking from a red plastic cup. "You just saw us all drink a glass of water, our municipal water system here in East Palestine is safe.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

☆ Morning Bid: Hang on a minute
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And so a speech from New York Fed chief John Williams make give a better steer on current thinking. Markets are now priced for a Fed 'terminal rate' in the 5.25-5.50% range by July and no cut from there by year-end. European central bankers are also talking tough as the region's economies dodge recession and inflation stays high. But geopolitical concerns rankle again ahead of Friday's anniversary, with Russia unilaterally withdrawing from a key nuclear arms control treaty. As G20 finance chiefs meet in India, the world is watching closely the extent of the alliance between Beijing and Moscow.

☆ Fan satisfaction: Rolling Stones, Paul McCartney record song together
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The Rolling Stones and Paul McCartney have joined forces to record a song together for the rock band's upcoming new album, a spokesperson for the Stones said on Wednesday. Hollywood industry publication Variety reported late on Tuesday that the former Beatle had recorded bass parts "for a forthcoming Rolling Stones project being helmed by 2021 Grammy producer of the year Andrew Watt". It added the recording sessions were done in Los Angeles recently and that McCartney's ex-bandmate Ringo Starr was "also slated to play on the yet-to-be-announced album". Asked about the report, a spokesperson for the Stones confirmed McCartney "guests on bass on one song" for the album, which will be released later this year. The new album would be the first since the death of Stones' drummer Charlie Watts in 2021.

A year from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fracturing geopolitics seems to be rolling back world trade links and financial interdependence at speed. But global financial conditions - and the strength of the U.S. dollar as a proxy for that - may be playing a bigger part than the more dramatic political narrative lets on. "A stronger dollar tends to go hand in hand with tighter global financial conditions and more subdued supply chain activity." Compensating somewhat for dollar exchange rate strength over the decade were historically low real dollar borrowing rates. There's little doubt that the pandemic and the geopolitics surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan have been major potential disruptions to world trade by themselves.

☆ Ohio Train Derailment: EPA Orders Norfolk Southern to Clean Up Site
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Kris Maher | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Environmental Protection Agency said it issued a formal order requiring Norfolk Southern Corp. to clean up chemicals spilled in a derailment earlier this month in East Palestine, Ohio, that has drawn concerns from residents about long-term health risks. EPA Administrator Michael Regan appeared in East Palestine on Tuesday alongside Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, as all three pledged that federal and state officials would remain in the village of 4,700 people until the site was fully cleaned up and residents’ concerns were allayed.

☆ Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says his office made a criminal referral in East Palestine train derailment
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Rebecca Shabad | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Drone footage shows the freight train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, U.S., February 6, 2023 in this screengrab obtained from a handout video released by the NTSB. Josh Shapiro on Tuesday said that his office has made a criminal referral in response to the recent train derailment over the border in East Palestine, Ohio, and the aftereffects on the environment and nearby communities. Shapiro shared the information during a press conference in East Palestine with Ohio Gov. Meanwhile, consumer advocate Erin Brockovich is planning a town hall in East Palestine for Friday. In an interview Tuesday on MSNBC, she reacted to footage of Regan and DeWine drinking an East Palestine resident's tap water.

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