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Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound and Chinese 100-yuan banknotes are seen in a picture illustration shot January 21, 2016. A PMI data deluge, inflation figures in the euro zone and U.S. nonfarm payrolls also add to the mix of the event-packed week. "I think for the FOMC and the Bank of England, they will be pretty low key with them leaving interest rates on hold. The BOJ meeting will be the most interesting one (given) heightened speculation over a policy tweak at this meeting." The yen was last 0.1% lower at 149.75 per dollar, getting a slight reprieve after having struck a one-year trough of 150.78 per dollar last week.
Persons: Jason Lee, nonfarm payrolls, Carol Kong, Israel, Chris Weston, Christian Scherrmann, Rae Wee, Muralikumar Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Aussie, Fed, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Rights SINGAPORE, Bank of Japan, Gaza's, Palestinian, U.S
Commentary coming out of the meeting from Fed officials will likely have some impact on mortgage rates. This would take some of the extreme upward pressure off of mortgage rates and likely allow them to trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased significantly in 2022.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron
New York CNN —The benchmark S&P 500 index closed in correction territory on Friday, ending a week made volatile by weaker-than-expected earnings reports and strong economic data. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, marking a more than 10% drop from its most recent July peak. Amazon shares rose 6.8% on Friday after the e-commerce giant reported a beat on top-and bottom-lines for its most recent quarter. Excluding gas and food prices, the core PCE index rose 3.7% for the 12 months ended in September, its smallest year-over-year increase since May 2021. The index rose 0.3% on a monthly basis from the 0.1% rate seen in August.
Persons: Dow, Jamie Dimon Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Ford Motors, United Auto Workers, JPMorgan Chase, Dow, Gross, Commerce Department, Federal, Traders, The University of Michigan’s Locations: New York
The S&P 500 could soar another 18% by year-end, according to Oppenheimer. In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Stoltzfus reiterated his S&P 500 price target of 4,900 by the end of the year. Of the 17% of S&P 500 companies that reported third-quarter earnings last week, 73% have beaten analysts' estimates, according to FactSet data. That could be bullish for stocks, considering that rate hikes weighed the S&P 500 down heavily in 2022. In 2022, he predicted the S&P 500 would surge to 5,330, but then slashed that target several times as the year went on.
Persons: Oppenheimer, That's, , John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, You've, that's Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Fed, Treasury
"At the current 8% mortgage rate, mortgage payment[s] are 38% of median income," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said. The National Association of Realtors measures affordability through its 34-year old Housing Affordability Index, or HAI. And even if home prices do the decline, that trend won't be sustainable unless America builds millions of more homes. And spreads will likely remain extra-wide until short-term interest rates drop below the rates on longer-term treasuries, Duncan said. "Mortgage rates will not go back to 3% – we'll be lucky if we get back to 5," Yun said.
Persons: , John Burns, maven Mohamed El, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Mark Zandi, That's, Doug Duncan, Fannie, Duncan, Daryl Fairweather, They've, Fairweather, they've, Freddie Mac, , Zandi, it's Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, NAR, Redfin, Allianz, America, Federal Reserve, realtors, Builders, Fed Locations: Florida, Austin , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Fannie Mae, America, New York, California, Phoenix, Tampa, Louisville, Indianapolis, Chicago
The Fed is losing control
  + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Financial markets currently see a nearly 99% chance the Fed will continue to pause rate increases in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That means the Fed may not need to continue aggressively raising rates to bring spending — and inflation — down. A spokesperson from the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union told CNN that they support the organizers planning a walkout and protests. In a statement to CNN, Walgreens said about 20 stores out of about 9,000 had “disruptions over three days,” Oct. 9-11. Walgreens walkout organizers told CNN that their tally is much higher, with about 600 employees participating.
Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, That’s, Powell, , ” Johns, Laurence Ball, Shane Jerominski, Tim Wentworth, ” Kim Kardashian, Skims, Kim Kardashian, undershirts Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Economic, of New, RSM, Financial, Treasury, Reserve, ” Johns Hopkins, , Walgreens, Workers, CNN, United Food, Commercial Workers International Union, SEIU, United Healthcare Workers West, Organizers Locations: New York, of New York, Friday’s
Rates just keep climbing, with 30-year mortgage rates hovering near 8%. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.63%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.92% last week, a 3-point increase compared to the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, you'll, Freddie Mac Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
There's nothing stopping bond yields from continuing to rise, according to forecaster Jim Bianco. Bianco made the case that the Treasury yield curve looks on track to completely de-invert. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere's nothing stopping the 10-year Treasury yield from continuing to surge past 5%, as the yield curve looks poised to completely de-invert, according to market forecaster Jim Bianco. But rates actually haven't been restrictive enough to "hurt the economy," Bianco said, with a handful of indicators that point to still-robust economic activity. Long-term yields could also be pushed up as the US looks to issue more long-term Treasury notes, Bianco added.
Persons: Jim Bianco, Bianco, Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Bianco Research, Treasury, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Bank of Japan
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is hovering close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years. Here's what history says about the rise in US bond yields and where Treasurys may be headed next. AdvertisementAdvertisementDuring the 1980s and 1990s, he explained, the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly two times inflation expectations, represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As for where the key bond yield heads next, history points to an answer there, too. There's a less than 1% probability, he says, that the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.5% barring any significant revision higher in inflation expectations.
Persons: , Christoph Schon, Treasurys, Schon, " Schon, Jerome Powell, there's, Phillip Colmar, Adam Phillips Organizations: Treasury, Barclays, Service, Fed, MRB Partners, Wealth, Federal Locations: Ukraine, New York
Ever since the Fed started raising rates in early 2022, mortgage rates have skyrocketed. Average 15-year mortgage rates also inched up, and threaten to topple 7% for the first time in 23 years. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. Mortgage Rates for Buying a Home30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Increase (+0.38%)The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.72%, up 38 basis points since this time last week. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Up a Bit (+0.21%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.77%, an increase from last week.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Fed, Economic, of New, Zillow, FHA Locations: of New York, Chevron
It’s no longer “higher for longer,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, it’s just “high for long.”What’s happening: 10-year Treasury yields are flirting with 5% for the first time since 2007, before the global financial crisis. It also means more expensive mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Fed officials, including Powell, have indicated that rates could be high enough to help lower inflation towards their target goal of 2%.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, Rob Almeida, Powell, they’re, Jerome Powell, Paul McCartney, Darrell Cronk, Anna Bahney, , ” Lawrence Yun, Snapchat isn’t, Snapchat, Clare Duffy, Evan Spiegel Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Interactive, MFS Investment Management, US Treasury, Treasury, Economic, of New, Financial, , National Association of Realtors, NAR, Twitter Locations: New York, Ukraine, of New York, Wells Fargo, Northeast, Midwest, South, homeownership
Gold scales 3-month peak as Middle East conflict lifts demand
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices hit a three-month high on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly gain, with demand bolstered by the Middle East conflict and expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing an end. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,978.19 per ounce by 0542 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 20. "Gold prices were supported as fears of another Fed rate hike in 2023 subside. We remain neutral towards gold prices for 2023, expecting prices to average $1,950/oz," Fitch Solutions said in a note. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $22.94 per ounce, but was headed for a second weekly rise.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Yoav Gallant, Jerome Powell, Wang Tao Organizations: Agosi AG, Capital.com, Israeli, Fitch Solutions, Economic, of New Locations: Pforzheim, Israel, Gaza
Major earnings reports and economic data will be in focus next week as investors seek clarity on how the Federal Reserve will proceed from here. But next week will bring the lion's share of results including reports from mega-cap darlings Alphabet, Amazon , Meta Platforms and Microsoft . While the S & P 500 is higher by 10% in 2023, the equal-weighted index is down slightly. Of note, Tesla shares sank more than 9% on Thursday following a pessimistic economic outlook from CEO Elon Musk during the company's earnings call. Its the S & P 500's first weekly loss in three weeks.
Persons: bode, Elon Musk, We're, Sam Stovall, it's, Raphael Bostic, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Katie Stockton, Rob Ginsberg, I'm, CFRA's Stovall, Stovall, Sherwin, Williams, Kimberly, Hess, Raymond James Financial, Keurig Dr Pepper, Northrop, Willis Towers Watson, Stanley Black, Rowe Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Investors, CFRA, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Wolfe Research, Chicago, P, PMI, P Global PMI Manufacturing, P Global PMI Services, Richmond Fed, Visa, Texas Instruments, General Electric, NextEra Energy, Raytheon Technologies, Dow, Inc, General Motors, Halliburton, Coca, Corning, Hilton Worldwide, General Dynamics, Dominion Freight, Mobile US, Boeing, Raymond, Technology, Whirlpool, International Business Machines, O'Reilly, Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, Mastercard, Amazon, Royal Caribbean Group, Tractor Supply, United Parcel Service, Hasbro, Southwest Airlines, Comcast, Hershey, Intel, L3Harris Technologies, Ford Motor, Energy, Chevron, Decker, Exxon Mobil, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: U.S, Atlanta, AbbVie
Why the housing market is going from tough to terrible
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The current housing market offers a crushing affordability picture for would-be-homebuyers and is keeping many out of the market. The monthly payment on an average-priced home now requires 40% of the median household income, making housing the least affordable it’s been since 1984, according to ICE. “Longer term Treasury yields — which mortgage rates tend to follow — depend on expected economic growth and inflation expectations,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. The median household income was $74,580 in 2022, according to the US Census Bureau. “Good news in the economy causes rates to stay higher for longer — but the longer rates are higher, the more likely something in the market goes ‘boom.’”
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Andy Walden, ” Walden, Orphe Divounguy, Nicole Bachaud, Bachaud, John Toohig, Raymond James, ” Toohig, Organizations: DC CNN —, ICE Mortgage Technology, Black, ICE, , Zillow, Census Bureau Locations: Washington
The benchmark 10-year yield , which was last at 4.9813%, has climbed some 35 basis points this week, driven by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns. "The move up has been driven by the Fed leaving the market as a price insensitive buyer. The dollar/yen pair tends to closely track changes in long-term Treasury yields, particularly in the 10-year maturity. In the broader currency market, the U.S. dollar edged higher, supported by elevated Treasury yields. The New Zealand dollar edged 0.35% lower to $0.5829, after having slid to an over 11-month low of $0.5816 on Thursday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Brian Jacobsen, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Ray Attrill, he's, Carol Kong, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Annex Wealth Management, U.S, National Australia Bank, New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, China, lockstep
Stock futures dipped Thursday evening as traders focused on a recent run higher in the 10-year Treasury yield. S&P 500 futures fell nearly 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 0.4%. The 30-stock Dow shed 250.91 points, or 0.75%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.85%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury also surged as high as 4.996%, trading at levels last seen in 2007. The S&P 500 is down 1.2% through Thursday's close, while the Nasdaq is off 1.7%.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Powell, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, SolarEdge, Swift Transportation, Dow, Treasury, Comerica, Regions Financial, American Express Locations: New York, Thursday's
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks during a moderated discussion hosted by the Economic Club of New York at 12 pm ET on Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note reached its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, while 30-year Treasury yields breached the 5% mark. That’s a welcome development for the Fed, but officials aren’t quite yet ready to declare victory. Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, and officials have said they need to see further evidence of the economy cooling. Employers added a robust 336,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate held at a low 3.8% that month.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, That’s, , Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, Economic, of New, Treasury, ” San Francisco Fed, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: Washington, of New York, June’s, ” San, Israel
The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates typically follow, has been elevated this month, and it could reach 5%. This would remove a significant amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates and likely allow them to fall more substantially. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.57%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.89% last week, an 11-point increase compared to the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
U.S. retail sales for last month came in much stronger than expected on Tuesday, signaling shoppers were not deterred by sticky inflation. Before the opening bell, the government reported September retail sales rose 0.7% from the prior month — more than double the estimates. Measuring year over year, the 3.8% increase in retail sales was still slightly higher than the CPI's advance of 3.7%. The retail sales data pointed to a resilient economy despite inflation still running way above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies YTD Clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 0.8% month-over-month but increased 0.1% year-over-year.
Persons: Jim Cramer, We're, TJX, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jamie Kelter Davis Organizations: Atlanta, Deal, Web Services, Food, Companies, CNBC, Shoppers, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Maxx, Chicago
The asset manager said the 10-year Treasury yield will probably hit 5%. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US Treasury market is still in for big swings of volatility, which could push the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond to 5%, according to BlackRock. "We have been underweight long-term US Treasuries since late 2020 as we saw the new macro regime heralding higher rates. Over the short-term though, Treasury yields are likely to experience more volatility, potentially swinging in both directions. But the economy is still under pressure from higher Treasury yields, which also work to tighten the screws on financial conditions.
Persons: , Phillip Colmar Organizations: US Treasury, BlackRock, Service, Treasury, MRB Partners, Fed Locations: BlackRock
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 5 basis points higher at 4.765%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by less than 2 basis points at 5.12%. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as investors considered the state of the economy and awaited fresh economic data as they mulled over the outlook for interest rates. Investors assessed the economic outlook as they considered whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates further or not. Some have cited recent Treasury yield highs as a reason for this, saying they have led to tighter financial conditions which in turn could help ease the economy.
Persons: Patrick Harker, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Israel
Dollar buoyed by safe-haven bids, rate jitters
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The yen was last steady at 149.53 per dollar. "Obviously war is inflationary, disrupts growth and threatens risk assets," James Malcolm, head of FX strategy at UBS in London. Elsewhere, the safe-haven dollar stood near a one-week high against a basket of currencies as risk sentiment remained fragile, pinning the euro near a one-week low hit on Friday. The Australian dollar , often used as a proxy for risk appetite, gained 0.19% to $0.6309, after sliding 1.4% last week. "The kiwi dollar jumped this morning following a clear and decisive victory of New Zealand's opposition National Party," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Benjamin Netanyahu, James Malcolm, David Chao, Christopher Luxon, Chris Hipkins, Kyle Rodda Organizations: Federal, U.S, country's, Bank of Japan, UBS, Sterling, Asia Pacific, Australian, Economic, of New, New Zealand, National Party, ACT, Labor Party, New Zealand First Locations: Chicago, Israeli, Asia, Gaza, London, Friday's, Israel, Japan, of New York
This will likely allow mortgage rates to fall. Average 30-year mortgage rates dropped a bit last week. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Mortgage Bankers Association, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley YTD We certainly hope Morgan Stanley's numbers are as good as Friday's report from our other bank holding Wells Fargo (WFC). Morgan Stanley is expected to grow revenue by more than 2% year over year to $13.2 billion in the third quarter. During a recent conference, Morgan Stanley executives said that capital markets will likely improve in 2024. Shares of Morgan Stanley have struggled this year, dropping more than 8% compared to the S & P 500's nearly 13% advance in 2023. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Stocks, WTI, Jerome Powell's, There's, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Harker, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, Powell, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Waller, Jefferson, – Morgan Stanley, Gamble –, Morgan Stanley YTD, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, there's, Gamble, Jim, we'll, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Philip Morris, — CNBC's Zev Fima, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Columbus Day, West Texas, Federal Reserve, Club, Fed, Market, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, National Association of Realtors, Procter, Procter & Gamble, Natural Resources, Exxon Mobil, Coterra Energy, of America, United Airlines, Gamble, Housing, Netflix, Alcoa, American Airlines, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Alaska Air, CSX, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Israel, U.S, New, Wells, KBW, Silicon, Manhattan, New York City
The latest Freddie Mac data, which reflects average rates from last Thursday through Wednesday, showed that 30-year mortgage rates reached a new 23-year high of 7.57%. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.89% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically in 2022 and have been volatile so far in 2023, but they're expected to trend down later this year.
Persons: Freddie Mac, you'll Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Reserve, Hamas, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
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