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☆ Markets may be on a tear this year, but the economy is under the most pressure since 2008 and could still easily fall into recession, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets have rallied this year, but the US is still facing a significant risk of recession, Capital Economics warned. That's because financial conditions are the tightest they've been since 2008. That's led to the tightest financial conditions since 2008, the firm said, pointing to financial condition indexes, or FCIs, which show financial conditions in US, Europe, Australia, Canada, and Japan nearing Great Recession levels. Capital Economics' broad financial conditions indexes show financial conditions at their tightest since 2008 across most tracked economies. Interest rates on consumer credit have spiked past 8%, which is one of the largest drivers of tight financial conditions, the firm said.

Persons: they've, That's, Simon MacAdam Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Federal Reserve, Capital, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan

☆ The worst of the housing affordability crisis may be over, but that doesn't mean it'll get easier to buy a home soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The worst of the housing affordability crisis has already passed, Morgan Stanley said. Mortgage rates are expected to see a small decline while the inventory shortage improves only slightly. "Affordability remains very challenged. "Supply remains incredibly tight, but it's not getting tighter." Mortgage rates are expected to decline through the end of the year as interest rate volatility in the economy winds down.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, it's, Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's, Egan, Price Organizations: Service, Mortgage Bankers Association, Black, National Association of Realtors Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Russia says it will halt foreign currency purchases and launch a digital ruble to keep the currency from spiraling further
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The nation's central bank announced it would stop foreign currency purchases through the end of 2023. It has also begun to pilot program for a digital ruble in an attempt to prop up its currency. The digital ruble will be tested with a limited number of clients across 13 banks, though the Russian central bank aims to launch the currency for public use by 2025. Russia's currency slipped further on Thursday, trading at 97 to the US dollar. That's about a 30% decline from what the ruble was worth in January, making it one of the worst-performing currencies this year.

Organizations: Service, Kremlin Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russian

☆ US stocks fall as investors brace for July CPI report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited the July CPI report. Markets are hoping cooler inflation will push the Fed to end its rate hike campaign. August has been a tough month so far for stocks, with the summer rally losing steam. Investors are hoping that cooler inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike campaign, which would likely be a boon for stocks. In the meantime, investors have their eye on The Walt Disney Company, which is set to report earnings after the closing bell.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Service, Cleveland, Investors, Federal Reserve, Walt Disney Company Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Top economist Paul Krugman says food inflation has mostly been caused by Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Food inflation has mostly been brought on by Russia, top economist Paul Krugman said. The Nobel laureate pointed to accelerating food prices over the past year, with the Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index rising to 123.9 in July. But the primary driver of "foodflation" exists outside of the US -- and lies largely in the hands of Russia, Krugman argues. Russia's invasion of Ukraine also spiked fertilizer prices, as the nation is one of the world's largest exporter of fertilizer. Still, Russia's impact is still "at the top of the list" for culprits driving food inflation.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Vladimir Putin, Krugman, Biden, That's, Putin Organizations: Service, Soaring, Food, Agriculture, That's, Observers, Cleveland Fed Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Kazakhstan, Odesa, Europe

☆ The ruble has plunged to its lowest level against the dollar since war in Ukraine began as Putin's economy sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's currency in recent days has plunged to its lowest level against the greenback since the war in Ukraine began. The ruble traded around 96 against the US dollar on Tuesday, a 30% decline from January. Russia's economy is struggling in the face of western sanctions and war in Ukraine, experts say. Russian officials have put up a show of defiance amid war and sanctions, and Putin has claimed Russia's economy could actually grow this year with GDP surpassing 2%. But those estimates are largely drawn from "cherry-picked" economic figures, according to Yale researchers, who say that under-the-radar statistics paint a far bleaker picture of Russia's economy.

Persons: Putin, Wagner, Vladimir Putin Organizations: greenback, Service, Kremlin, Yale Locations: Ukraine, Russia's, Wall, Silicon, Russia

☆ Home prices this summer have hit a new all-time high in a majority of the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Home prices hit a new-all-time high across the US in June as the shortage in inventory drags on. Prices reached fresh peaks in 30 out of 50 housing markets tracked by Black Knight, the firm said in a new report. Meanwhile, the housing market is short around 3.8 million units, per an estimate from Freddie Mac. Across all markets, prices grew 0.8% year-per-year in June, surging from just a 0.2% increase reported in May. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched higher to 6.9% the last week, according to Freddie Mac.

Persons: Black Knight, Freddie Mac, We've, Andy Walden, That's Organizations: Service, Knight Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ More firms on Wall Street are bracing for a stock sell-off. Here's why JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others say the market's huge gains are at risk.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Mortgage payments are 19% more expensive than last year as home prices continue surging, Redfin says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mortgage payments are 19% more expensive than last year, Redfin data shows. The typical homebuyer's monthly mortgage payment was $2,605 during July. That's largely due to surging home prices and higher mortgage rates, which have raised the cost of borrowing. That's just below the all-time-high monthly mortgage payment of $2,637, which was notched in early July. Experts say affordability conditions are unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly, though that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Persons: That's, Redfin, Freddie Mac, Redfin's Organizations: Service, Mortgage, Association, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, That's

☆ The US will be 'drowning in debt' over the next 30 years as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster," the research firm said. "Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster." Meanwhile, the government's debt servicing costs hit $475 billion in 2022, up 35% from the $352 billion spent to service the national debt in 2021. Debt servicing costs will likely increase to $663 billion this year, the CBO estimated, with total interest payments on the debt potentially mounting to $10.6 trillion over the next 10 years. Rising debt servicing costs pose trouble for markets and economy.

Persons: Stephen Pavlick, Pavlick, that's, Glenmede Organizations: Service, Macro, Congressional, Office, Committee, Federal Budget, Fed, CBO, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ CEOs made 272 times more than their workers in 2022, earning nearly $17 million on average
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

CEOs at 500 major firms make 272 times more than their workers, according to a new report. That's per the latest executive pay report from the AFL-CIO, which looks at S&P 500 compensation. On average, CEOs make $16.7 million, a $5 million increase over the last decade. Over the last ten years, CEOs' paychecks have swelled by $5 million on average — leading to average compensation of $16.7 million in 2022, according to the AFL-CIO's latest iteration of its annual Executive Paywatch report. On average, CEOs in that field make nearly $38 million.

Persons: paychecks, Duncan Crabtree, —, Brandon Rees, Rees, Insider's Jennifer Sor Organizations: AFL, CIO, Service, SEC, SAG Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ireland

☆ US stocks fall as bond yields jump and investors await Apple, Amazon earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks closed lower on Thursday as investors awaited for Apple and Amazon earnings to roll out. The 10-year Treasury surged 11 basis points, continuing its rise following Fitch's US credit downgrade. Commentators say that US dollar and Treasury assets are still a safe haven for investors. Apple and Amazon stock traded mostly flat as investors waited for the mega-cap firms to release their financials. Both are due to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell.

Persons: . Fitch, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett Organizations: Apple, Treasury, Service, ., AAA, US, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki warns of a market 'crash landing' after US credit rating gets slashed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should brace for an epic "crash landing" to hit markets and the economy, Robert Kiyosaki said. The "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author pointed to Fitch's move to slash the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. "Brace for crash landing. Kiyosaki has been sounding the alarm for a steep recession and an epic stock market crash for years, calling for the greatest market crash in world history in 2021. Many economists, meanwhile, are warming to the idea that the US will see a soft landing of its economy.

Persons: Robert Kiyosaki, Dad, Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, —, Fitch, " Brace, He's ramped, didn't, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Larry Summers, Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon Organizations: AAA, AA, Service, Fed, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Stocks could see a sharp sell-off as the possibility of resurgent inflation threatens the FOMO-fueled rally, Wells Fargo says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors shouldn't chase the current FOMO-fueled rally in stocks, Wells Fargo warned. Core inflation accelerated 0.2% in June, and though payrolls rose by a less-than-expected 209,000 jobs last month, the labor market remains resilient, a factor that could potentially drive inflation higher. "If inflation's descent flattens out and reverses as interest rates rise higher, we believe the sectors that have driven this rally should be vulnerable to sharp pullbacks," Wren warned. Wells Fargo predicted the S&P 500 would end the year between 4,600-4,800. In addition to stubborn inflation, investors could also be slammed with a corporate earnings recession, Morgan Stanley has warned.

Persons: Wells, Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, Wren, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Stocks are on track for a 28% gain this year, and the bull market will stretch into 2024, Oppenheimer says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 is on track to gain 28% this year after a dismal 2022, Oppenheimer said. Stoltzfus, who has made the case for a huge stock market rebound since January, raised his S&P 500 target for the year to 4,900. "A broadening of the rally across S&P 500 sectors suggests that the bull market that emerged from the October 2022 lows has legs to run higher into 2024," Stoltzfus added. Other Wall Street commentators have turned more bullish on stocks as the S&P 500 nears its all-time-high of 4,796, which it hit in January 2022. The benchmark index is likely to hit a new record price this year, some forecasters say, thanks to inflation dropping and financial conditions easing into 2024.

Persons: Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ AI could power the US economy as investment in the sector is poised to hit $200 billion by 2025, a Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AI investments could account for up to 4% of the US economy by 2025, Goldman Sachs estimated. That's because AI investing is poised to hit $100 billion in the US and $200 billion globally by then. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The bank's economists predicted AI-related investments could hit $100 billion in the US by 2025, while global AI-related investments hit $200 billion that same year. Goldman Sachs has remained bullish on artificial intelligence, despite fears from other Wall Street analysts that AI could be fueling a bubble in the stock market.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Russell Organizations: Service, Wall Street, . Investment Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Meme-stock hero Ryan Cohen faces Bed Bath & Beyond shareholder lawsuit over emoji-fueled rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Meme stock investor Ryan Cohen will have to face a lawsuit from Bed Bath & Beyond shareholders. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Shareholders filed a suit against Cohen after the Gamestop executive chairman sold his shares of Bed Bath & Beyond during a rally for the meme stock last year, bagging a $68 million profit before the stock price tanked again. "So meme stock investors conceivably understood Cohen's tweet to mean that Cohen was confident in Bed Bath and that he was encouraging them to act." Bed Bath & Beyond shares traded at $0.29 on Monday, down 99% from their record price of $80.48 a share.

Persons: Ryan Cohen, Cohen, Trevor McFadden, emojis, McFadden Organizations: Bed, Investors, Service, Gamestop, CNBC, Washington DC, Securities, Exchange, Wall Street Locations: Wall, Silicon, Bath

☆ The 'richcession' isn't happening. The ultra-wealthy have never been richer and they're still spending like crazy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Experts say the richest are actually even richer and spending more than they were before the pandemic. Most Americans now have "spent up" demand for goods, but still have pent up demand for services, Zandi says. In her experience, luxury spending is highly correlated with the stock market, and investors have enjoyed handsome returns so far this year as the S&P 500 rebounds from its 2022 lows. The luxury services sector was a particular hot spot. "If this is a richcession, the rich are probably saying, bring it on," Zandi said.

Persons: they've, Mark Zandi, Zandi, they're, Rather, pricey Taylor Swift, Taylor Swift, Patek Philippe, Claudia D'Arpizio, D'Arpizio, Scott Dunn, Bridget Lackie, Lackie, Jennifer Stillman, Douglas Elliman, we've, Stillman Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Rolex, Bain & Company Locations: YOLO, Wall, Silicon, New York

☆ Dow and S&P 500 finish 3rd straight winning week as more data shows inflation is cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks rose on Friday as investors cheered good news from the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq rose 2%. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq rose 2%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, increased 0.2% month over month in June, in-line with economists' estimates. Here's where US indexes stood as the market closed 4:00 p.m. on Friday:Dow Jones Industrial Average: 35,459.29, up 0.5% (176.57 points)Nasdaq Composite: 14,316.66, up 1.9%Here's what else is going on:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US stocks rise as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge drops to 2-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose higher on Friday as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge cooled to a two-year low. PCE inflation rose just 0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with economists' expectations. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track to close off their third straight winning week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose just 0.2% in June, in-line with economists' estimates. Commentators point out that headline inflation remains well-above the Fed's 2% long-run target.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, Saperstein Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Fed, Treasury Partners Locations: Wall, Silicon, decelerate

☆ Billionaire Mark Mobius says he's so bullish on emerging markets that all his money is outside the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Billionaire investor Mark Mobius confirmed all of his money is outside the US. That's because he's so bullish on emerging markets, he told CNBC. "I'm all international and emerging markets in particular," the Mobius Capital Partners founder said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. Emerging markets could top the US in the global stock market starting in 2030, Goldman Sachs estimated. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets exchange traded fund has risen 10% this year.

Persons: Mark Mobius, Mobius, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNBC, Service, Privacy, Mobius Capital Partners, Companies, Shanghai HSBC Locations: Taiwan, South Korea, India, Wall, Silicon, Asia, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Shanghai

☆ The market for a particular vintage Barbie doll went haywire after Michael Cera's cameo in the 'Barbie' movie
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Auction prices for Mattel's discontinued Allan doll spiked after the release of the new "Barbie" movie. Michael Cera plays the role of Allan in the new box-office hit, which raked in $155 million its opening weekend. A preowned Allan doll sold for $410 on eBay on Tuesday, while the price for another Allan doll reached $605 on Friday in an ongoing auction. That's a dramatic increase from Allan doll prices last Thursday before the release of the "Barbie" movie, which ranged from $35-$76, according to screenshots published by TMZ. The surge in prices has been sparked by renewed interest in Mattel's iconic dolls after the debut of the new "Barbie" movie last Friday.

Persons: Allan, Michael Cera, Michael Cera's, Oppenheimer Organizations: Mattel's, Service, eBay, TMZ, Mattel, billings Locations: Wall, Silicon, BoxofficePro

☆ Soaring home prices mean first-time buyers need to be making 13% more money than a year ago to afford a 'starter' home
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A first-time homebuyer needs to earn 13% more money to afford a starter home, per a Redfin analysis. The average starter home cost $243,000 in June, sending the income needed to afford it to $64,500 per year. "The most affordable homes for sale are no longer affordable to people with lower budgets" due to rising prices and rates. The average starter home cost $243,000 in June, up 2% from the average price last year and up 45% from before the pandemic. Experts say affordability won't improve until mortgage rates pull back more significantly, though that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Persons: Sheharyar Bokhari, Redfin, That's, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Bidenomics could make inflation worse, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Biden's economic agenda could make inflation worse, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. But Summers said he disagrees with the principle behind those policies, warning that they could contribute to higher prices. The manufacturing policies also ignore the benefits of globalization and trade with other countries, which has lowered inflation, Summers said. Despite strong criticism from some commentators, other economists have defended Biden's economic plan. Bidenomics has largely been a success, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said, given the dramatic fall in inflation over the past year.

Persons: Larry Summers, Joe Biden's, Summers, Bidenomics, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, US, CNN Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine

☆ Real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht says the storm heading for the sector is unavoidable - and recession is coming despite soft landing talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The billionaire Starwood CEO predicted a coming recession and "Category 5 hurricane" in the real estate sector. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyA storm is headed for the real estate sector, and a recession is coming despite growing talk of a soft landing, according to real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht. Higher rates and tighter financial conditions spell trouble for the real estate sector in particular. "I like to say there's a hurricane over real estate right now. While labor markets are hot still, inflation is steadily cooling, leading to talk of a Goldilocks scenario in which the Fed can lower inflation without crushing demand or crimping growth.

Persons: Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, David Rubenstein Organizations: Starwood, Service, Starwood Capital CEO, Bloomberg Wealth, Board Locations: Wall, Silicon

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