When voters in England and Wales go to the polls on Thursday to elect mayors and local council members, the outcome will inevitably be seen as a barometer for Britain’s coming general election.
Given the sour public mood and the Conservative Party’s dire poll ratings, the storm clouds are already forming.
The big question is not whether the governing Conservatives will lose seats — that is a foregone conclusion among pollsters — but whether the losses will exceed or fall short of expectations after 18 months in which the Tories have consistently trailed the opposition Labour Party by yawning margins.
“If a party has been 20 points behind the opposition for 18 months, how much worse can it get?” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics.
“The losses would have to be very, very bad for it to be viewed as a negative result for the Conservatives, and they are unlikely to be good enough for Labour for it to be viewed as a success.”
Persons:
pollsters, ”, Tony Travers
Organizations:
Wales, Conservative, Conservatives, Tories, Labour Party, London School of Economics, Labour
Locations:
England