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Less 'pro-cyclical' Trump on the horizon, strategist says
  + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLess 'pro-cyclical' Trump on the horizon, strategist saysEvan Brown, portfolio manager and head of multi-asset strategy at UBS, discusses the implications of Trump's re-election on markets.
Persons: Evan Brown Organizations: UBS
If this year's closures are any indication — and if the economy worsens — they won't be alone. 2025 is still more than a month away, but it's already shaping up to be another rocky year for retail. Analysts at UBS project the total number of US retail closures could reach 45,000 over the next five years. For one thing, even healthy retailers like Walmart and Target periodically review and trim their store fleets in the normal course of business. In any event, the year hasn't even begun, but nearly 1,500 retail closures are slated — already roughly half the amount BI has tracked for full-year totals in recent years.
Persons: , Topping, Shane O'Kelly, Donald Trump's Organizations: Parts, Walgreens, UBS, Coresight Research, Walmart, Target, Blockbuster
Cryptocurrencies and banks have been on a tear since President-elect Donald Trump's victory last week, and Societe Generale thinks these "Trump trades" have more room to run into January. The firm specifically underscored bank stocks, companies exposed to the reshoring theme, small-cap names and crypto. "Trump trades are in full bloom and should continue to outperform until Inauguration Day, in our view," U.S. chief economist Stephen Gallagher wrote in a Thursday research note. Gallagher is not the only one on Wall Street who thinks the "Trump trade" has more legs. Societe Generale said its Trump 2.0 thematic basket has jumped more than 7% in the week since the election, but it is only up 15% in 2024, compared to the S & P 500 's 25% year-to-date gains.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Stephen Gallagher, Russell, bitcoin, Gallagher, Jason Draho Organizations: Societe Generale, Trump, US, US Banks, SG Global, Wall, UBS Locations: US
Here are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Citi initiates Gilead Sciences as buy The firm said it is bullish on the biotech company's HIV franchise. Piper Sandler upgrades Campbell Soup to overweight from neutral Piper Sandler said it sees an attractive entry point for the stock. UBS initiates Cogent as buy The firm said it sees meaningful revenue acceleration for the internet services company. Jefferies reiterates Tesla as hold The firm raised its price target on the stock to $300 per share from $195. Morgan Stanley reiterates Meta as overweight The firm said Meta is a major artificial intelligence beneficiary. "
Persons: Piper Sandler, Campbell, Oppenheimer, Jefferies, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Papa, KeyBanc, Papa John's, BXP, Wells, Wells Fargo, BURL, Meta, Needham, Eli Lilly's Organizations: Citi, Gilead Sciences, HIV, SOVO, UBS, Nvidia, Bank of America, Neutral Bank of America, ISI, Papa Johns International, Company, JPMorgan, Medicines, 3Q, Netflix, Barclays, Airlines, FDA, Novo Nordisk, Microsoft Locations: Europe, Asia, Africa, America, Manhattan, Burlington
"Investors should take advantage as munis are poised to deliver good performance into year-end and 2025, in our view," he added. Interest income from municipal bonds is free of federal income taxes. Further, if the investor resides in the same state that issues the bond, the interest income can be exempt from state taxes. Both of those tax cuts could reduce muni bond demand, Li said. As for any potential changes in the individual tax rate, UBS' Mukherjee doesn't necessarily see a big impact on demand.
Persons: Sudip Mukherjee, Mukherjee, Yingchen Li, Trump, Li, Donald Trump, Bank of America's Li, downgrades Organizations: Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Bank of America, muni, Republicans, Senate, Democrats, GOP, UBS, Investment, Bank of America's
UBS upgrades 3M to buy, says shares can rally more than 40%
  + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
3M is poised to see a return to steady growth in the months ahead, according to UBS. The bank raised its rating on the stock to buy from neutral and hiked its price target to $184 from $130, reflecting more than 41% upside. Mehrotra said the company could see 40% earnings growth by 2028 if the CEO is successful in his efforts. Mehrotra is among the 10 analysts on Wall Street who have a strong buy or buy rating on the name, per LSEG. The average price target of $144.74 implies around 11% upside.
Persons: Amit Mehrotra, William Brown, Mehrotra Organizations: UBS, MMM, Wall Locations: repurchases
Evercore ISI downgrades Caterpillar to in line from outperform The firm said it sees earnings per share risk for Caterpillar. Barclays reiterates Instacart as overweight The firm said it is sticking with its overweight rating following earnings. " Telsey reiterates Target as outperform Telsey says it is sticking with its outperform rating on Target ahead of earnings next week. Jefferies reiterates Netflix as buy The firm said the latest report of monthly active users for Netflix weakens the bear case. " TD Cowen reiterates Cava as buy The firm said Cava had a "flawless" third quarter.
Persons: Oppenheimer, William M, Brown, reallocating, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Telsey, Salesforce, verticals, Jefferies, Piper Sandler, Wedbush, Tesla, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, TD Cowen, Cava Organizations: Caterpillar, CAT, UBS, DTC, Bank United, Bank, Solutions Holdings, C Insurance, Barclays, CART, Starbucks, Bank of America, Netflix, MAUs, Micron, Apple, ISI, Services, Department of Government, White, Trump Locations: 3Q24, FCF
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market 'is very misplaced' in terms of looking at China stimulus: UBSShamaila Khan, head of fixed income for emerging markets at UBS Asset Management is of the view that instead of a "big bazooka" of stimulus, China has been consistently injecting stimulus in a "slow and measured fashion," which is not priced into Chinese assets.
Persons: UBS Shamaila Khan Organizations: UBS, UBS Asset Management Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHome Depot in 'great spot' to benefit from multi-year recovery in home improvement: UBS' LasserMichael Lasser, UBS retail analyst, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if warm weather impacted Home Depot's quarterly earnings results, the gross margin decline for Home Depot, and much more.
Persons: Michael Lasser Organizations: UBS, Home Depot
The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, , Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European
Demand for Asia equities likely to remain high, says strategist
  + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDemand for Asia equities likely to remain high, says strategistSuresh Tantia, APAC Strategist for UBS Global Wealth Management, says the threat of tariffs is unlikely to reroute demand for Taiwan & South Korean equities or products.
Persons: Suresh Tantia Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Taiwan & South Locations: Asia, Taiwan
Analysts said tariffs on cars imported from Mexico would have dire consequences for US automakers. Tesla announced in March 2023 that it was planning to build its seventh gigafactory near the industrial hub of Monterrey, Mexico. Trump vowed to clamp down on automakers building cars in Mexico on the campaign trail, and the prospect of new tariffs could force US automakers such as Tesla to make some hard choices about operational or planned factories in Mexico. Analysts told BI that the tariffs floated by Trump would deter automakers such as Tesla from investing in Mexico. Other automakers have expanded their presence in Mexico, despite the uncertainty of the election and the prospect of tariffs under a second Trump term.
Persons: Donald Trump, Elon Musk, , Tesla, Trump, It's, Donald Trump's, Alex Brandon, Musk, Sam Fiorani, Fiorani, Ford, David Whiston, Scott Olson, BYD, Stephanie Brinley, Alanis King, Brinley, Stellantis Organizations: Service, Mexico —, AP, UBS, Trump, AutoForecast Solutions, General Motors, Ford, Getty, Toyota, Tacoma, Nissan, Volkswagen, BYD, Chrysler, Street Journal, BMW, P Global, Toyota Tacoma, GM Locations: Mexico, Monterrey, Detroit, United States, Cuautitlan, Toluca, San Luis Potosí
Piper Sandler names Nvidia a top pick The firm said Nvidia is a new top pick. Morgan Stanley reiterates Dell as overweight Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Dell to $154 per share from $136. Morgan Stanley reiterates Nvidia as overweight The firm raised its price target on Nvidia to $160 per share from $150. Wedbush reiterates Tesla as outperform The firm said Tesla remains well positioned. "We are raising our price target on Tesla to $400 from $300 as we believe the Trump White House win will be a gamechanger for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years."
Persons: Wedbush, Piper Sandler, Bernstein, BURL, Morgan Stanley, Dell, DELL, Wolfe, underperform Wolfe, We've, WBD, Blackwell, Cabot, Tesla, Raymond James downgrades Bloomin, Raymond James Organizations: UBS, Vale, Nvidia, Blackwell, Citi, Apple, JPMorgan, Dell, Warner Bros, NBA, Deutsche Bank, Cisco, Orion, Trump White House, Bank of America Locations: China, Burlington, Brazil
Tuesday Home Depot is set to report earnings in the premarket. What history shows: Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows Home Depot has beaten earnings expectations for 17 straight quarters. What history shows: Live Nation shares have risen after the last four earnings releases, per Bespoke. What history shows: Disney has not done well following the last two releases, losing 4.5% and 9.5%, respectively. Applied Materials is set to report earnings after the open.
Persons: LSEG, Michael Lasser, Morgan Stanley, Walt Disney, Michael Morris Organizations: Depot, Disney, CNBC, UBS, Home, Investment Group, Consumer, VanEck Semiconductor
Jefferies reiterates Nvidia and Marvell as buy The firm says the two chipmakers still have the most upside. Citi upgrades Bank of America to buy from neutral Citi says the bank could be a beneficiary of lighter regulation. Bank of America downgrades Rivian to neutral from buy Bank of America said it sees regulatory risk under a Trump administration. Bank of America upgrades Teledyne Technologies to buy from neutral The firm says it sees upside ahead for the industrial conglomerate. Goldman Sachs upgrades Wingstop to buy from neutral The firm says the wings restaurant has "best-in-class" growth.
Persons: William Blair, Warby Parker, Bernstein, Apple, Lowe's, Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, Sweetgreen, Goldman, outperformance, it's bullish, BNTX, Oppenheimer, Piper Sandler, Wells, Airbnb, Gross, Trump, TDY Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence, Nvidia, Marvell, Enterprise, JPMorgan, China EV, Catalyst, Holdings, Barclays downgrades, Body, Citi, U.S, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Molson Coors, OW, Bank of America, Trump Administration, " Bank of America, Teledyne Technologies Locations: AVGO, 4Q24, DPZ, UW
Bank of America downgrades Solaredge to underperform from neutral Bank of America says Solaredge is at risk of tariffs in a Trump administration. Barclays downgrades Coty to underweight from equal weight Barclays downgraded the beauty stock following earnings and says it sees "strategy creep." Baird upgrades McKesson to outperform from neutral Baird upgraded the healthcare and medical supply company following earnings. JPMorgan upgrades Clearwater to overweight from neutral JPMorgan upgraded the software company following earnings. " Seaport downgrades Duolingo to neutral from buy The firm downgraded the language App company mainly on valuation following earnings.
Persons: Solaredge, Jefferies downgrades Palantir, Jefferies, PLTR, Bernstein, Ford, Morgan Stanley, Wolfe, it's, Trump, Coty, Schneider, Schneider National's, Apple, it's bullish, Max, Baird, MCK, JPM, CWAN, Guggenheim, Sunrun, Raymond James, Tesla Organizations: Barclays, Qualcomm, Bank of America, of America, Intelligence, Allstate, Nvidia, AMD, Coty, underperform Bank of America, Citi, Apple, Deutsche Bank, Disney, HC, JPMorgan, UBS, Vulcan, Guggenheim, Technologies, USM Locations: Trump, 1Q23, China, F4Q
The tax cuts and tariffs floated by Trump has raised worries of a widening fiscal deficit, spurring Treasury yields higher as of late. Bond yields move inversely to their prices. A buying opportunity in bonds Sinead Colton Grant, chief investment officer at BNY Wealth, believes that bond investors overreacted. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury "The biggest determinant of your long-term return is the yield," Grant said. Munis While municipal bond yields don't move as quickly as Treasury yields, they are expected to follow, said BNY Wealth's Grant.
Persons: Donald Trump, Bond, Mark Haefele, Sinead Colton Grant, overreacted, Trump, Grant, it's, Brian Rehling, Charles Failla, BNY Wealth's Grant, Sudip Mukherjee Organizations: White, Federal Reserve, Trump, UBS, Fargo Investment, Sovereign Financial Group, AAA, Moody's Locations: Fargo, Stamford, Conn, New York City, muni
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat a new Trump term means for the Fed's handling of the economyEvan Brown, head of multi-strategy at UBS Asset Management; Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale; and Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss what they expect from the Fed's meeting today, how a new Trump term could impact the agency's approach to the economy, and more.
Persons: Evan Brown, Subadra Rajappa, Jay Bryson, CNBC's Organizations: Trump, UBS Asset Management, Societe Generale Locations: Wells Fargo
Donald Trump's return to the White House sparked a big move higher in small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks were seen as potential winners under a second Trump presidency, as investors expect it would ease regulations on businesses — which tend to weigh more heavily on smaller businesses. Wednesday's gains in small caps were led by private prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic , which were up roughly 20% each. Small-cap stocks have trailed their large-cap counterparts this year. Notably, small caps outperformed in the 3mos after both the Trump 2016 and Biden 2020 wins."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Jason Goepfert, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, IWM, Wells, Chris Harvey, Robert Krankowski Organizations: Trump, DOJ, FTC, Congress, Wolfe Research, Geo, Biden, UBS, Ferrari Locations: Wells Fargo
Eugene Tanner | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It may be tempting to view market moves as a proxy for the direction that the elections will go. But UBS thinks any outsized market moves caused by election volatility is an opportunity for investors to build up their portfolios. The optimism around the economy and markets is shared by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.
Persons: Honolulu Hale, Eugene Tanner, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Donald Trump, Stocks, Nomura, Marcelli, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh, Jesse Pound, Samantha Subin Organizations: AFP, Getty, CNBC, Democratic, Republican Party, UBS, Americas, UBS Global, Carson Group, White Locations: Honolulu, Honolulu , Hawaii, U.S
Goldman Sachs reiterates Nvidia as buy Goldman said the stock is best positioned ahead of earnings later this month. JPMorgan upgrades Yum China to overweight from neutral JPMorgan upgraded the China operator of brands like KFC following earnings. Wedbush reiterates Tesla as outperform The firm said the EV maker is a big winner of a Trump presidency. Deutsche Bank reiterates Spotify as buy Deutsche said it's bullish heading into the streaming company's earnings report on November 12. JPMorgan downgrades Super Micro to underweight from neutral JPMorgan downgraded the stock following earnings citing too much regulatory uncertainty.
Persons: Bernstein, Apple, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, YUMC, Wedbush, Tesla, Trump, Jefferies, Raymond James, it's, Wells, BURL, Oppenheimer, TD Cowen downgrades Brown, Forman, Cowen, Needham, revs, Ferrari, it's bullish, Mizuho, Monness Crespi Hardt, Snowflake Organizations: Nvidia, JPMorgan, KFC, Trump, Ryman Hospitality, Citi, GE Healthcare, General Electric, Barclays, Tencent, Entertainment, Deutsche Bank, Spotify, Deutsche, Nike, Burlington, GAP, Super Micro, Services, UBS, Ferrari, Data Center, 2027E, Bank of America, of America Locations: China, 2Q24, Snowflake
Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, , Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China
Bitcoin, an asset tied to a Trump victory given the candidates courtship of the industry, soared to a record $75,000 . Heading into the election, investors and analysts pointed to several stocks and sectors that could benefit from a Trump win. Here's a roundup of some of those: Steel stocks If Trump regains the presidency, JPMorgan expects steel stocks to outperform . Related stocks that could outperform under a Trump victory include Nucor , Cleveland-Cliffs , Kaiser Aluminum and MP Materials , according to Peterson. Supporters of Trump have also used the stock as a way to invest in a Trump victory.
Persons: Donald Trump ., Trump, Kamala Harris, Here's, Bill Peterson, Peterson, UBS's, Goldman Sachs, Strategas, Lazard, Wolfe, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Marion Laboure, bitcoin, Nic Puckrin, David Zerzos, Zerzos, Marcelli, Seth Seifman, Russell, Joe Biden, IWM, , Halliburton, Trump's, ULTA, Michael Bloom, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh Organizations: U.S, NBC, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Trump, JPMorgan, Aluminum, Financials Bank of America, of America, UBS's Trump, UBS, Swiss, Citigroup, Citizens, Wolfe Research, GOP, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, ISI, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Jefferies, Military, Strategas, Gas Energy, Evercore ISI, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Companies Locations: Nucor, Cleveland, U.S, China, U.S . Southern
Palantir reported 10 cents earnings per share on $726 million in revenue. On the other hand, NXP's third-quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations by 2 cents per share, while its $3.25 billion revenue was in line with estimates. Hims & Hers Health — The telehealth stock popped 7.2% after third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations of analysts polled by FactSet on both lines. On the other hand, the company's $3.19 billion revenue missed estimates of $3.20 billion. Marqueta's $128 million revenue was just shy of the $128.1 million consensus from FactSet.
Persons: Donald Trump, Palantir, Rick Dreiling, Michael Creedon, FactSet, LSEG, Burger King, machinists, Astera, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Yun Li, Sarah Min, Pia Singh Organizations: Trump Media & Technology, Republican, White, LSE, NXP, Wynn Resorts, Lattice Semiconductor, DuPont de Nemours, Restaurant, Burger, LSEG, Revenue, Diamondback Energy, Boeing —, Labs, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Deutsche Locations: Netherlands, Americas, Europe, San Francisco, Cleveland, Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCyclical and defense stocks fluctuating on Trump vs. Harris win, says UBS' Maxwell GrinacoffMaxwell Grinacoff, head of U.S. equity derivatives research at UBS, weighs in on the impact of the U.S. election on stock markets.
Persons: Harris, Maxwell Grinacoff Maxwell Grinacoff Organizations: Trump, UBS
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