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☆ A shipping stock shaking off Red Sea turmoil and poised for big breakout, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.

Persons: Katie Stockton Organizations: Inc, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: Japan

☆ The future of interest rates is more surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.

Persons: Claudio Borio, “, ”, Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan

☆ Analysis: How Republicans have grown more skeptical of Zelensky and Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Democrats welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Capitol Hill earlier Thursday, while Republicans were far more split. At the beginning of the war, Zelensky sported a 77% favorability rating among Democrats and a 61% favorability rating among Republicans, according to a March 2022 Quinnipiac University poll. A July 2023 Gallup poll found that Zelensky’s favorability rating with Republicans had declined to 51%. In fact, Russia’s favorability rating among Republicans – and Democrats – has declined significantly from a few years ago. For example, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say that the Korean War was “useless,” according to a 1951 Gallup poll.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelensky, Republicans ’, –, What’s, worldviews Organizations: CNN, Capitol, Republicans, Quinnipiac University, Democratic, Gallup, Fox, Democrats, America Locations: Ukraine, States, Quinnipiac, Russia, That’s, Zelensky, Soviet Union, America

☆ Supply chains may be moving out of China and into Asia — but they aren't really decoupling from the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Supply chains are diversifying away from China, causing a shift in global-trade patterns. Data shows that while manufacturing activity for end products has been moving out of China, supply chains haven't decoupled from the country. "Companies are moving manufacturing processes to other countries, including parts of Asia and North America, to diversify their supply chains. Companies are moving their supply chains out of China. As Insider reported in April, even Chinese companies are moving their supply chains out of China to avoid risks.

Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Misha Govshteyn, Nomura, Sonal Varma, reexported, —, Frederic Neumann, Yukon Huang, Genevieve Slosberg, Lu Yucong, Carnegie's Huang, MaroFab's Govshteyn Organizations: Service, Apple, Mazda, Asia Supply, Nomura Holdings, East, HSBC, Association of Southeast, Nations, Carnegie Asia Program, Financial Times Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Asia, Washington, Beijing, Vietnam, Bangladesh, North America, Houston, South Korea, Hong Kong, China's, India, Japan, Europe, Yukon, America, United States, Guangdong

☆ Don't look now, but oil has formed a 'golden cross' chart pattern
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A golden cross is when the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average. Some chart analysts think the 200-day moving average needs to be ascending for it to count as a "golden cross." "On August 24th a golden cross occurred. One way for investors to gain exposure to the move in oil prices is through exchange-traded funds that buy oil futures contracts, such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) . There are also leveraged funds such as the Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) that are riskier bets but could generate big returns if the oil market rally does continue.

Persons: Paul Ciana, Ciana, Chris Verrone, Verrone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Texas, Energy, Saudi Press Agency, United States Oil Fund, Ultra Bloomberg, Oil Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ These 5 bearish arguments have yet to derail the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are five major bearish arguments for an imminent recession and a falling stock market. Here's why each of the bearish arguments have yet to put a dent in the stock market rally. According to Wednesday note from market veteran Ed Yardeni, all of the bearish arguments supporting a stock market sell-off and eventual recession have fallen flat, and that means there could be more gains ahead. These are the five bearish arguments for the stock market, and why they haven't yet derailed the current rally, according to Yardeni. "This conclusion is confirmed by Fed data on the ownership of deposits plus money market funds by generation cohorts."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, LEI, That's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, ATA, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Yardeni

Over the last decade, U.S. corn yield in August was lower than in July four times, including the past two years. The recent years with higher August corn yields versus July have featured some sizable moves. The government's corn and soybean yields will rely heavily on survey data next month and field observations will be added in September. Last month was the Midwest’s driest June since 1988, though USDA left U.S. soybean yield untouched from the 52-bpa trendline. August soybean yield has come in lower than in July only twice in the past 10 years (2013, 2021).

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, USDA

☆ Supreme Court ruling could chill labor strikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( John Kruzel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Angela Cornell, a Cornell Law School labor law professor, called it "another decision that undermines the capacity of unions to function." MORE STRIKESThe ruling comes at a time of increasing strikes called by U.S. labor unions. Some experts pointed out that the ruling largely preserved the existing legal scaffolding for deciding labor law preemption cases of this kind. The Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority, has dealt setbacks to organized labor in key cases in recent years. Brudney said Thursday's ruling "was not comparable to that broader trendline" of decisions weakening labor unions.

Persons: Amy Coney Barrett, Angela Cornell, Cornell, Kenneth Dau, Schmidt, Benjamin Sachs, Sachs, Dan Altchek, Saul Ewing, Altchek, James Brudney, Brudney, Anne Marie Lofaso, Lofaso, John Kruzel, Will Dunham Organizations: U.S, Supreme, Taiheiyo Cement Corp, Cornell Law School, Indiana University Maurer School of Law, Harvard Law, Glacier, Inc, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, National Labor Relations, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fordham University Law, West Virginia University College of Law, Thomson Locations: Japan, Washington, Philadelphia, California

☆ 'AI' is trending in Google searches — but it's not yet to the peak reached by Bitcoin in 2017
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Asia Martin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"AI" is trending in Google searches, but it hasn't yet hit the peak seen by Bitcoin in 2017. An Alliance Bernstein analyst crunched the numbers using Google Trends data. Schilsky's report shows a line chart comparing three search terms: "AI," "metaverse," and "Bitcoin." A screen grab from Google Trends shows what Alliance Bernstein analyst Mark Schilsky pointed out to clients: The peak of search volume for "Bitcoin" is higher than the peak of search volume for "AI" so far. With the trendline for "AI" searches — and its apparent inevitable march to be an ever-more important part of our lives — it's likely only a matter of time before it surpasses "Bitcoin" for search volume.

Persons: Bitcoin, Alliance Bernstein, crunched, Bernstein, Mark Schilsky's, Mark Schilsky, Mark Zuckerberg's, — it's, we're Organizations: Alliance, Google

☆ The Covid Pandemic Emergency is Apparently Over - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Wallace-Wells | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

This is a pace of about four million excess deaths per year. Excess mortality tells a somewhat different story. With a couple of brief exceptions, excess deaths have held steady for about a year now in a range between about 8,000 and 15,000 per day. At some point we may simply stop referring to these as excess deaths and incorporate them instead into higher mortality baselines. Excess mortality, too.

☆ Karen Firestone: This is what’s working in today’s market – and what should keep working
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Karen Firestone | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

However, whatever the overall market action, there are always stocks that outperform considerably, encouraging an effort to pinpoint what the market craves, even in tough times. We examined the best performing stocks this year, from the universe of equities with a market capitalization over $4 billion. This industry, along with communication services, led the market up in 2020 and 2021 but collapsed in 2022. Tech stocks rose during Covid as demand accelerated, then became priced to perfection, in many cases. Karen Firestone is chairperson, CEO and co-founder of Aureus Asset Management, an investment firm dedicated to providing contemporary asset management to families, individuals and institutions.

☆ Wage growth is cooling — but workers still have bargaining power, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The pace of wage growth seems to be decelerating, according to the February jobs report issued Friday — but workers still have bargaining power in a cooling but strong job market, economists said. "Workers have a very strong negotiating position," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "The labor market is still very strong and workers are still in the driver's seat." Employers had to compete for workers in a hot market characterized by record job openings and turnover. It's also the slowest monthly gain since February 2022, according to Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

☆ Website creator Wix.com sees strong sales in 2023 after Q4 profit
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

JERUSALEM, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Wix.com (WIX.O), which helps small businesses build and operate websites, said on Wednesday it swung to a profit in the fourth quarter and forecast 9-11% growth in revenue in 2023. The Israeli company said it earned 61 cents per share excluding one-time items, compared with a loss of 34 cents per share a year earlier. Wix was forecast to earn 9 cents a share ex-one off items on revenue of $352 million, according to data from Refinitiv. Wix said it was implementing further cost saving measures, and expected total savings of $200 million in 2023 and $215 million of annualized savings. Analysts are projecting first-quarter revenue of $366 million and full year revenue of $1.511 billion.

☆ Here's why the Fed may have won already but is still acting like nothing has improved
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

We can bet that they will be one-upping each other about how high they want to take fed funds, the overnight bank lending rate. They seem to want to ignore anything that's succeeded since the Fed's rate increase cycle began back in March. I think that, again, if the Fed were to wait through Christmas they would see the layoffs and the corporate failures. One thing that's for certain, the buyers of the 2-year may be more sensitive to the data than the Fed. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

☆ Stocks likely bottomed this month following the September inflation report as investors scramble to exit the bear market, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks likely reached a bottom on the day of the S&P 500's big swing sparked by the September inflation report, said Carson Group. The S&P 500 has been recovering after hitting a 52-week low during the wild October 13 session. Last Thursday's slide was sparked by the shock September inflation report as the core CPI reading came in at 6.6%, hotter than the 6.5% Bloomberg consensus estimate. Meanwhile, fewer stocks last week made 52-week lows than when the S&P 500 reached a low in mid-June. On Friday, the S&P 500 was higher at 3,677 as trading got underway after futures suggested a decline for the broad-equity index.

☆ U.S. container imports tumble as supply stress gives way to slack
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Lisa Baertlein | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LOS ANGELES, Oct 20 (Reuters) - After more than two years of surging demand, the volume of container imports coming through U.S. ports has tumbled sharply, raising questions about where a sector once tracked as a supply-chain stress point will hit bottom. Container import volumes across all U.S. ports hit an all-time high in May and pulled back slightly before plunging in August and September. Volume surged as much as 40% from 2019 levels during the pandemic as retailers raced to meet soaring demand for goods. As recently as March, the Biden administration supply chain task force had tracked container imports as part of a "dashboard" to monitor the distress in the distribution of goods and a contributor to higher prices. Kemmsies said the August and September pullbacks in the volume of container imports is the result of retailers like Walmart (WMT.N) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) cancelling billions of dollars of orders earlier this year.

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