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China's post-lockdown economic boost lost momentum earlier than expected, the IMF said. "On the downside, a more protracted real estate crisis and limited policy response in China would deepen the regional slowdown." A sudden tightening of global financial conditions could lead to capital outflows and weaken exchange rates in Asia, the blog added. "While Asia is still set to contribute about two-thirds of all global growth this year, it is important to note that growth is significantly lower than what was projected before the pandemic," the IMF said. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) had maintained a cap on the country's 10-year bond yield at around zero, to support a fragile economy.
Persons: Aly, Leika, John Stonestreet Organizations: China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, China, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Danzhou, Hainan province, China, Asia, MARRAKECH, Morroco, U.S, outflows, Marrakech, Japan
"Under the Xi administration, China probably shifted its attention away from economics," he told Reuters. "What's fast emerging is the risk of China slipping into deflation, or the 'Japanization' of its economy," Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut China's growth forecast for this year to 5.0% from 5.2% in April, and warned that its property sector crisis could deepen with global spillovers. To be sure, there are differences between what is happening in China and the experience of Japan. "Overall, we believe that China can avoid a prolonged period of sub-par growth with the right policies," Srinivasan said, when asked about the chance of "Japanization" in China.
Persons: Aly, Hiroshi Wanatabe, Watanabe, Xi, Asahi Noguchi, Krishna Srinivasan, Srinivasan, doesn't, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Chizu Organizations: China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, Japan, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank of Japan, Economic, Pacific Department, Thomson Locations: Danzhou, Hainan province, China, Japan, MARRAKECH, Morocco, Marrakech, Asia, Beijing, Tokyo
REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it is seeing "significant support" for a U.S.-backed increase in quota lending resources without changes to its shareholding structure at IMF and World Bank meetings in Morocco. "I think it would be a good thing to have a deadline on the formula, because without changing the formula, we are stuck." An IMF spokesperson confirmed that she was referring to a deadline for adjusting the shareholding structure. Georgieva said the decision on a realignment deadline was up to members. The IMF is scheduled to complete a long-delayed review of quota resources by Dec. 15.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Susana Vera, Georgieva, David Lawder, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Rights MARRAKECH, U.S, China, United States, Ukraine, India, Brazil
The IMF’s projections for growth and inflation are “increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario… especially in the United States,” Gourinchas continued. The 20 countries using the euro are expected to grow collectively by 0.7% this year and 1.2% next year, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively from July. The IMF upgraded its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024 — an improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively. “The strongest recovery among major economies has been in the United States,” the IMF said. The IMF revised its forecasts for global inflation to 6.9% this year and 5.8% next year — an increase of 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage points respectively.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Qilai Shen, Gourinchas Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent Locations: United States, China, Europe, Ukraine, Guangzhou, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia
[1/2] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. Doing so, Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara said on Thursday, would "increase the voice and agency of member countries who are the most vulnerable" at the Fund. Martin Muhleisen, a former IMF strategy chief, said the plan "puts the Chinese on the spot to agree". A delay would be a major disappointment for the IMF after contentious 2019 negotiations left quota resources and shareholding untouched. "The Fund's not tight," said Mark Plant, a former IMF official now with the Center for Global Development.
Persons: Yuri Gripas, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Alassane Ouattara, Mark Sobel, Martin Muhleisen, Mark Plant, David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Marcela Ayres, Peter Graff Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, International Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Reuters, U.S . Congress, U.S, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Brazilian, Center for Global Development, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, China, India, Brazil, Marrakech, Morocco, Ukraine, Saharan Africa, Coast, Washington, Beijing, Brasilia
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday U.S. growth needed to slow to a pace more in line with its potential rate to bring inflation back to target levels since the economy was operating at full employment. "Growth has to slow. "It's completely natural and desirable, that growth -- the pace of growth -- is slowing." U.S. gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Federal Reserve officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%, often referred to as the "potential" growth rate. Yellen did not specify what she regards as the U.S. economy's potential growth rate, except to say that it has been growing above potential since it raced out of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, David Lawder, Kanishka Singh, Leslie Adler, Deepa Babington Organizations: Tuesday, Federal, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, CHINA, China, U.S
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during an interview in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2023. President Joe Biden's administration is working to encourage both sides to resolve the strike quickly, Yellen said. The U.S. Treasury market "continues to function pretty well" despite higher rates and some volatility, she said. But nothing that is really out of line with what you would expect given the volatility in the underlying market," Yellen added. CHINA "DE-RISKING"She said China's economic slowdown would have a limited impact on U.S. growth, echoing recent comments from Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Shannon Stapleton, Yellen, Joe Biden's, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Wally Adeyemo, Gina Raimondo's, David Lawder, Chizu Organizations: Treasury, REUTERS, . Treasury, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Federal Reserve, UAW, Detroit automakers, Republicans, U.S . Senate, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Detroit, United States, CHINA, China
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said U.S. growth needed to slow to a rate more in line with its potential growth rate to bring inflation back to target levels since the economy was operating at full employment. "Growth has to slow. I mean, you want growth to slow, you want it to be in line with potential when you're operating at full employment," Yellen told reporters on Tuesday on the sidelines of a climate event. "It's completely natural and desirable, that growth, the pace of growth, is slowing." Yellen did not specify what that potential growth rate was, except to say the economy has been growing above that level.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Biden, David Lawder, Kanishka Singh, Leslie Adler, Deepa Babington Organizations: Treasury, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, China, U.S, United States
A more fragmented global economy though, has limited global trade growth — which now lags global economic growth. "What is important is to do it for the benefit of everybody, and not for exclusion of others," she said. "In that sense, I would encourage all countries working collaboratively with each other to do so in the spirit of integrated economy." Virtuous cycleIn reality, this Biden-backed economic corridor would add to existing infrastructure investment for the regions involved. "And I call on our members to strengthen the global financial safety net," Georgieva separately said Sunday in a press release, released shortly after the G20 summit formally ended.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Kristalina, Evan Vucci, The, Kristalina Georgieva, Joe Biden's, Georgieva, CNBC's Martin Soong, Biden, Modi Organizations: India's, Monetary Fund, Bharat, Afp, Getty, The Biden, International Monetary Fund's, Indian, European Union and, United Arab Emirates, Biden, CNBC, IMF Locations: New Delhi, India, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Covid, Ukraine, Delhi
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Economists have downgraded Singapore's 2023 growth forecasts and inflation expectations, according to a survey by the country's central bank published on Wednesday, with spillovers from an external growth slowdown cited as the top risk. The median inflation forecast is for headline consumer prices to rise 4.7% this year, down from 5.0% predicted in June. The median forecast for MAS core inflation, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, is 4.1%, unchanged from the previous survey. Both headline inflation and MAS core inflation are expected to ease in 2024, to 3.1% and 2.8% respectively. About 69% of survey respondents cited the impact of a slowdown in external growth as the downside risk to the domestic outlook.
Persons: Yantoultra Ngui, Chen Lin, Kanupriya Kapoor Organizations: Monetary Authority of Singapore, Gross, MAS, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Singapore
Economists have downgraded Singapore's 2023 growth forecasts and inflation expectations, according to a survey by the country's central bank published on Wednesday, with spillovers from an external growth slowdown cited as the top risk. The median inflation forecast is for headline consumer prices to rise 4.7% this year, down from 5.0% predicted in June. The median forecast for MAS core inflation, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, is 4.1%, unchanged from the previous survey. Both headline inflation and MAS core inflation are expected to ease in 2024, to 3.1% and 2.8% respectively. About 69% of survey respondents cited the impact of a slowdown in external growth as the downside risk to the domestic outlook.
Organizations: Economists, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Gross, MAS Locations: Singapore, Marina
WASHINGTON (AP) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is facing growing skepticism from some leading rich and developing nations as the residual impact of sanctions against Russia is deepening divisions among the Group of 20 countries. Russia and China, meanwhile, have declared a “no limits” partnership of their own. And the economic bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — known as BRICS — is trying to increase its use of local currencies instead of the U.S. dollar. Russia is hoping it can use its power over Ukraine’s Black Sea exports as a bargaining chip to reduce Western sanctions. That may be difficult as G20 nations increasingly gravitate into blocs and with some leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, opting to skip the summit.
Persons: Janet Yellen, , Joe Biden, Yellen, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Rachel Ziemba, , Xi Jinping, Josh Lipsky, Lipsky, Xi, Mark Sobel, ” Sobel, Ziemba Organizations: WASHINGTON, , U.S ., West, Center, New, New American Security, Treasury Department, International Fund for Agricultural Development, GeoEconomics, Fund, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, New Development Bank, Monetary Fund, World Bank, , European Union Locations: Russia, India, U.S, Moscow, Ukraine, United States, China, Brazil, South Africa, New Delhi, New American, Argentina, Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey
Rich, poor countries split over costs of pandemic prevention
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +9 min
REUTERS/Bruno Kelly/StringerSince early in the COVID-19 pandemic, global health officials have sought to create a “pandemic treaty” to better prepare for future outbreaks. The governing body of the World Health Organization, or WHO, chose delegates from each of its six administrative regions worldwide to lead the negotiations. Ahead of next week’s meeting, according to officials interviewed by Reuters, the biggest sticking point remains financing for poor countries. The United States and the European Union have both said they support the inclusion of “One Health” provisions in a pandemic treaty. But as a far-reaching and sometimes abstract concept, “One Health” measures could be costly to put into practice.
Persons: , Chadia Wannous, zoonotic spillover, Bruno Kelly, Stringer, Lawrence Gostin, ” Gostin, , Maria Van Kerkhove, , Deborah J, Nelson, Ryan McNeill, Helen Reid, Sam Hart, Simon Newman, Edgar Su, Paulo Prada, Janet Roberts, Feilding Organizations: LONDON Health, World Health Organization, Organisation for Animal Health, Reuters, REUTERS, WHO, European Union, Center, National, Global Health Law, , Pacific, Brazilian, South Locations: Geneva, France, United States, Asia, Africa, Latin America, Americas, Southeast Asia, Brazil
US imports from China are down this year, and direct investment in China is a sliver of the US GDP. However, William Lee, the Milken Institute's chief economist, told Insider China's economic stumble might not be all bad for the US. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US goods, which may continue to slow, amounted to less than 1% of the US GDP, suggesting a reduction in Chinese imports wouldn't drastically harm the US economy. In addition, China's slowing economy has already chipped away at some American companies' revenues, including DuPont's and Danaher's. AdvertisementAdvertisementThough China's economy has been plagued by a number of crises, including low consumer confidence, many Americans may not have to worry about the downturn hurting their wallets.
Persons: Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, William Lee, Milken, Lee, Paul Krugman, , Luis Torres, it's Organizations: Service, Milken Institute's, US, New York Times, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, United States, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Vietnam, India, Mexico, Hong Kong, Canada, American
Bank Indonesia's logo is seen at its headquarters in Jakarta, Indonesia, January 17, 2019. Bank Indonesia (BI) plans to issue new rupiah-denominated securities, using its holdings of government bonds as the underlying asset, as a new monetary instrument aimed at attracting foreign portfolio capital flows, Governor Perry Warjiyo said. BI kept the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) at 5.75% for its seventh straight monthly policy review, as widely expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. Guarding the rupiah "is our way to protect the domestic economy, inflation and growth from global spillovers," Warjiyo told reporters. Inflation slowed in July to 3.08%, roughly the midpoint of the central bank's 2% to 4% target range.
Persons: Willy Kurniawan, Perry Warjiyo, Warjiyo, Radhika Rao, Shivaan Tandon, Bank Danamon, Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe, Stefanno Sulaiman, Ananda Teresia, Gayatri Suroyo, Martin Petty, Kim Coghill, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Bank Indonesia, BI, Reuters, Securities, U.S, Treasury, DBS Bank, Capital Economics, Bank, Thomson Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, JAKARTA, Asia's, China
SHENZHEN, CHINA - MARCH 09: View of high commercial and residential buildings on March 9, 2016 in Shenzhen, China. "As a result, Chinese economic weakness and falling prices (especially Chinese producer prices) are likely to spill over into global markets — near-term good news for the Western central banks' fight against elevated inflation." "China's disappointing rebound is now feeding negatively into global sentiment and growth. Beyond the trade-related spillovers, a common global disinflationary pressure comes from commodity prices, where as a huge importer of commodities, Chinese domestic demand remains a key factor. "Weak Chinese domestic investment and broad-based excess capacity in manufacturing, as well as weak sales of new homes and land, are likely to continue to depress global commodity demand," Wilding and Liao said.
Persons: Zhong Zhi, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Carol Liao, Montgomery Koning, Liao, TS Lombard's Montgomery Koning Organizations: Getty, National Bureau, Statistics, Evergrande, TS Lombard, Lombard, U.S, Census, TS Lombard's Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, China, U.S, Beijing, West, Germany
The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. Smaller Chinese cities, whose revenues have already been deteriorating, could have a glut of unfinished homes, a social problem Beijing is trying to avoid. But as China's economy started slowing during and after its COVID-19 lockdowns, property sales in those areas has plummeted along with values of the homes themselves. Country Garden's sales in 2020 were 570.7 billion yuan ($78.22 billion), but that slipped to 357.5 billion yuan in 2022. Country Garden has nearly 1 million homes to complete, according to estimates from Japanese investment bank Nomura.
Persons: Aly, HONG KONG, Oscar Choi, Yang Huiyan, Lu Ting, Nomura, Gerwin Bell, Clare Jim, Liangping Gao, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, Country, HK, National Bureau, Statistics, Partners Capital, China Evergrande, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Beijing, Dezhou, Hong Kong, Asia, Washington, New York
NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Deflationary pressures in China could spill over into global markets, which is potentially near-term good news for Western central banks as they seek to curb inflation, U.S. asset manager PIMCO said on Wednesday. The economic deterioration could moderate inflation in China and, increasingly, also in the markets served by Chinese goods, PIMCO Economist and Managing Director Tiffany Wilding said in a note. "Deflation, weakening trade, collapsing loan demand, and a paralysed property sector dampen our risk appetite," it said. "For China, the risk of more pronounced deflationary pressure depends crucially on the government’s policies in the coming months," said Wilding. "Adequate fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand may reaccelerate inflation, while delayed or inadequate policy measures could lead to a downward spiral," she said.
Persons: PIMCO, Tiffany Wilding, , spillovers, Wilding, Davide Barbuscia, Mark Potter Organizations: PIMCO, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust Co, Thomson Locations: China, Western
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said China's economic snags pose some risks to the US. "China's slowdown will have the largest impact on its Asian neighbors, but there will be some spillovers to the United States." She maintained that the US labor market remains strong while inflation trends downward after the Federal Reserve's 11 interest rate hikes. "When Americans are asked about their own personal financial situation, 70% or more say they feel very good," Yellen said. The Treasury chief's comments follow President Joe Biden's remarks that China's economy is a "ticking time bomb," given its growth and demographic issues.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, they're, Joe Biden's, They've, Biden, David Dollar Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal, Reuters, Brookings Institution Locations: United States, Wall, Silicon, Las Vegas, Utah, Beijing, China
There have been nine consecutive ECB rate rises since July 2022. In the poll 37 - or 53% - of 70 economists predict no move at the Sept 14 meeting compared with 47% in last month's poll, which would mean the ECB leaving its deposit rate at 3.75%, in line with market pricing. The poll also showed 53% expecting a deposit rate rise to 4.00% sometime this year, with 33 economists saying September, and four October or December. While markets are priced for a roughly 60% chance of a pause in September, they are split for year-end, with just over a 50% probability of a 4.00 deposit rate by then. However, inflation setbacks could still force a rate hike later this year," said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, bloc's, Lagarde, Bas van Geffen, Michael Kirker, Prerana Bhat, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Sarupya Ganguly, John Stonestreet Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Rabobank, spillovers, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Ukraine, European
In what amounted to 27 rating actions on US banks, Moody's pointed to rising costs of capital, deteriorating profits, and climbing risks to assets. In effect, much of the stress on banks Moody's is responding to can be chalked up to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions over the past year and a half. "Most banks' deposits were flat or down only modestly, but the mix worsened, with non-interest-bearing deposits declining and banks paying more for deposits," Moody's strategists wrote. So Moody's downgrades aren't all doom and gloom for these firms, and it's always possible the moves are reversed once the outlook turns rosier. Banks are in the money business, he explained, and the Fed has made money harder to come by.
Persons: Moody's, Service It's, they've, it's, Michael Bell, Honigman, Banks, Bell Organizations: Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Service, Northern Trust, State Street, Capital, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Bank, KBW Nasdaq, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, Reserve, Moody's, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon, Japan
China's economy is losing momentum, after an initial post-COVID bounce, the IMF said. That's due to continued weakness in the real estate sector and softness in foreign demand. Meanwhile, the IMF raised its forecast on Russia's 2023 GDP growth to 1.5% from a prior view of 0.7%. "Following a reopening boost, China's recovery is losing steam," the IMF said. By contrast, the IMF held more positive outlooks on Russia's economy, boosting its forecast for 2023 GDP growth to 1.5% from a prior view of 0.7%.
Organizations: Service, International Monetary, IMF Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia
LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Globally agreed rules leave crypto firms with no option but to introduce basic safeguards to prevent the blow-ups seen at FTX exchange and other crypto casualties, the G20's Financial Stability Board said on Monday. The FSB published on Monday final recommendations requested by the G20 on supervising firms that trade cryptoassets such as bitcoin. The watchdog also revised its existing recommendations for stablecoins in light of the demise of TerraUSD/Luna coins. The collapse of FTX in November 2022 highlighted vulnerabilities from crypto firms and the FSB said that all countries should apply the recommendations, even those that are not members of the watchdog. "Therefore, cryptoasset players need to stop operating outside the regulatory perimeter or in non-compliance with existing rules," FSB Secretary General John Schindler told reporters.
Persons: FTX, John Schindler, Schindler, Bitcoin, IOSCO, Huw Jones, Louise Heavens Organizations: Ripple Labs, European Union, FSB, Thomson Locations: FTX, Bahamas, Basel
The US isn't going to suffer a recession, Janet Yellen said Monday. "Growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong," she told Bloomberg. But China’s economic slowdown does pose risks, the Treasury Secretary warned. But the Treasury Secretary did warn of one potential threat to both global and US growth: China. "Many countries do depend on strong Chinese growth to promote growth in their own economies, particularly countries in Asia," Yellen said.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Joe Biden Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Unemployment, , Apple, Nike Locations: Wall, Silicon, India, Maryland, China, Asia, United States
Watchdog with teeth can help EU hunt unicorns
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Yet the EU today is a long way from uniting its capital markets. By comparison, the United States has seven exchange groups, three listings exchanges and 16 trading exchanges, along with one clearing house and one depository. Bringing capital markets together through better regulation, as well as better market incentives, could keep the next generation of unicorns home. Follow @rebeccawire on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSEuropean Union leaders called for the EU to improve capital markets as part of a push for competitiveness at summits in March and June. Capital markets union is an EU endeavour launched in 2014 as a long-term project to boost investment across borders.
Persons: , Austria’s i5invest, Backes, Magdalena Rzeczkowska, Nadia Calviño, ESMA, ” Calviño, won’t, centralisation, Francesco Guerrera, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, EU, ABC Fitness Solutions, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Canada, Berlin Brands Group, European Securities and Markets Authority, European, Central, Union, European Commission, Capital, Thomson Locations: BRUSSELS, Europe, China, Ukraine, Arkansas, London, Switzerland, United States, IPOs, Belgian, U.S, Paris, spillovers, Luxembourg, Poland, Brussels, EU, wean
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