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As of Jan. 31, money managers held a net long of 219,924 CBOT corn futures and options contracts, a net long of 175,504 contracts in CBOT soybeans, a net long of 140,943 contracts in CBOT soymeal, a net long of 31,224 contracts in CBOT soyoil, and a net short of 63,628 contracts in CBOT wheat. That included 18,127 contracts of corn, soybeans 29,242 contracts, soymeal 5,440 contracts and CBOT wheat 10,305 contracts. Funds’ Jan. 31 net long in corn was the highest since November, and their net short in CBOT wheat as of Jan. 24 had been the strongest since May 2019. Daily fund estimates collected by Reuters suggest that between Feb. 1 and Feb. 24, commodity funds were net sellers of 26,500 CBOT corn futures and 34,500 CBOT wheat futures. Money managers have not been net sellers of more than 25,000 CBOT wheat futures and options combined over a four-week span since late 2021.

As of late January, large speculators held moderate to large net long positions across CBOT corn, soybeans and soybean products, and those collectively outweighed their sizable net short in CBOT wheat. CBOT futures have mostly strengthened since then. Black Sea concerns and worsening crops in Argentina also helped CBOT corn drift 0.5% higher in the last 13 days, ending at $6.80-1/2 per bushel Friday. Corn has been the most mild-mannered of CBOT contracts since Jan. 25, trading up or down by less than 2% since then. ESTIMATESAs of Jan. 24, money managers’ net long position in CBOT corn futures and options hit an 11-week high of 201,797 contracts.

New gross longs were the primary reason for the move, as has been the case in most recent weeks when funds were net corn buyers. CBOT corn ended at $6.83 per bushel Friday, up 5% from the month’s low and stronger than the year-ago $6.36. Most active CBOT wheat futures fell more than 2% in the week ended Jan. 24, including a 16-month low of $7.12-1/2 on Jan. 23. Most-active CBOT wheat had traded between $4.16 and $4.37 per bushel in April 2017. Their net long fell to 135,503 CBOT soymeal futures and options contracts from the all-time high of 150,939 a week earlier.

Ongoing drought in Argentina also enticed fund buying last week in corn, soybeans and soybean meal, forcing another managed money record in the latter. Money managers' extension of net longs in CBOT corn, soybeans and meal in the week ended Jan. 17 was the result of new gross longs, which were especially numerous in corn and beans. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn futures and options is at 13-year lows for the time of year after hovering a bit below average during mid-to-late 2022. Through Jan. 17, money managers boosted their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 192,137 contracts from 149,605 a week earlier. In the last three sessions, most-active CBOT soybean futures fell 2.2%, corn fell 1.3% and soymeal shed 3.6%.

Most-active CBOT corn futures had declined more than 2% through Jan. 10, and CBOT soybeans fell fractionally. Corn and soybean futures both rose about 3% from Wednesday through Friday. However, strength in corn and soy, along with much lighter-than-predicted Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks, allowed CBOT wheat to rise 1.6% in the last three sessions. The managed money net short in Minneapolis wheat futures and options decreased slightly through Jan. 10 to 2,704 contracts. wheat futures and optionsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

☆ Brazil making 'atypical' soy sales to Argentina, Anec says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ana Mano | Roberto Samora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -A Brazilian trade group representing global grain merchants on Thursday confirmed “atypical” sales of Brazilian soybeans to Argentina after rumors about unusual cargos being booked at this time of the year. FILE PHOTO: Soybeans are harvested at a farm in Porto Nacional, Tocantins state, Brazil March 24, 2018. Fernando Muraro, an analyst with AgRural, estimates Brazilian soy sales of 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes to Argentina for delivery in February and March. “They went up.”Crushing margins in Argentina rose by $10 per tonne in the beginning of January, to $30, making soy imports from Brazil an attractive option during the peak of Argentina’s soy inter-harvest period, Muraro added. Last year, the first Brazilian soy shipments to Argentina were recorded in April, for a batch of almost 49,000 tonnes, Brazil trade data show.

CORN, SOY, WHEATCBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures declined notably on Jan. 3, the first trading day of 2023. Through Jan. 3, they cut about 3,500 contracts from their stance, resulting in a net short of 52,715 CBOT wheat futures and options contracts. Investors may have reduced CBOT corn length late last week with futures down 2.5% between Wednesday and Friday. Most-active CBOT soybean futures were unchanged over the last three sessions given the poor conditions in Argentina and possibly unfavorable weather in Brazil’s southernmost state offsetting U.S. demand concerns. They expect U.S. corn, soy and wheat ending stock estimates to rise along with Brazilian corn and soy crops, though a sizable decline is predicted for Argentina’s harvests.

The managed money meal net long of 129,989 contracts, up about 8,700 on the week, rivals May 2018’s high of 133,549. That is supported by a heavier managed money net long: 128,616 futures and options contracts now versus about 98,000 a year ago. Most-active CBOT soybean futures on Friday settled at $15.24 per bushel, their highest since June. CBOT soybean oil futures expanded 13.3% in 2022 after increasing by a third in 2021, though they declined 3.5% in the latest three sessions. Open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options had ended 2021 at the lowest point for the date since 2008.

CORN AND WHEATMoney managers’ net long in CBOT corn futures and options is now the smallest since the early days of the recent rally in September 2020. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsThat was the largest weekly net reduction in corn since August 2019. Most-active CBOT wheat futures lost nearly 7% in the week ended Dec. 6, reaching their lowest level since October 2021. Money managers increased their net short by more than 9,000 to 63,382 futures and options contracts, the most bearish since May 2019. March Minneapolis wheat also notched four-month lows on Dec. 6, and money managers pushed their net short position past 3,000 futures and options contracts.

Nine vessels totaling 606,540 tonnes of Brazilian corn were set for sail to China this month, according to Tuesday’s shipping lineup from Williams Shipping Agency. Phytosanitary requirements prevented China from importing much corn from Brazil before last month, when Beijing approved several Brazilian corn traders for export. China’s remaining U.S. corn balance is thin, with unshipped 2022-23 sales at 1.8 million tonnes as of Nov. 24. Exporter association Anec on Wednesday pegged Brazil’s December soy exports at 1.7 million tonnes, below the five-year average of 2.5 million. China and unknown destinations, frequently assumed to be China, purchased 1.9 million tonnes of U.S. soy in the week ended Nov. 10.

That resulted in a corn net long of 191,631 futures and options contracts, a three-week high. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsFunds covered gross shorts in both corn and soybeans through Nov. 29, though the addition of new longs was the more prominent feature. Open interest in corn futures and options was down 14% on the year as of Nov. 29, and for soybeans it was down 9%. Corn futures lost 3.5% in the last three sessions, on Friday hitting the most-active contract’s lowest levels since August before settling at $6.46-1/4 per bushel. CBOT soy product futures were up in the week through Nov. 29, soyoil to a larger degree at 2%.

Although most-active CBOT corn futures were unchanged in the week ended Nov. 15, the contract had traded down more than 2% by Nov. 15 before rallying back late in the session. Money managers axed more than 78,000 gross CBOT corn longs in the two weeks through Nov. 15, the most for any two-week stretch since July 2016. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply and demand and U.S. crop production reports during the week ended Nov. 15. Most-active CBOT wheat futures were also unchanged in the week ended Nov. 15 but had been down more than 3% at one point. Money managers were more active on the downswing, reducing their net long by about 11,000 to 92,965 CBOT soybean futures and options contracts.

China accounts for 60% of global soybean imports, and upon arrival, the beans are crushed into protein-rich hog feed to support the country’s strong appetite for pork. When soybean imports are strong, that often indicates healthy feed demand and a sufficiently large hog herd. China substantially upped pork imports in 2019 after disease spread through its hog herd starting in 2018, potentially killing up to 40% of the country’s pigs. China’s pork imports have risen a bit since the mid-year slump due to a notable increase in Brazilian shipments since the beginning of this year. Through October, China’s 2022 soybean imports of 73.2 million tonnes were down 7.5% on the year.

That was funds’ fifth consecutive week selling CBOT wheat, meaning they sold even as Russia pulled out of the Ukraine export deal at the end of October. Wheat futures have shed more than 1% in the last four sessions, ending at $8.18-1/2 per bushel on Monday. Money managers’ gross CBOT wheat longs are the lightest for the date since 2008, and their shorts are largely average. Through Nov. 8, money managers cut their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 237,662 contracts from 271,960 a week earlier. Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

4 U.S. soy state by planted acres, which ships about 70% of its harvest of the high-protein oilseed to China annually. Instead, the new facilities will be able to process half of the state's soy harvest into oil for biofuel and meal for livestock feed. The crush plant will draw soybeans from farmers 60 miles in each direction, said Mike Keller, vice president with ADM. EXPORT EXPANSIONU.S. grain exports have been reaching global buyers for decades via Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest terminals. U.S. soybean farmers and industry groups pledged an additional $1.3 million to help offset design and development costs.

The approvals could reshape global trade flows and result in fewer sales for farmers in the United States, the world's top corn supplier. China relied on the United States and Ukraine for most of its corn supplies but Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted exports. He said in an interview the list of approved Brazilian facilities that can export corn to China may be updated to include more units in coming weeks. Once China starts buying corn from Brazil, traditional Brazilian corn importers such as Spain and Egypt could shift some of their purchases to the United States. Beijing and Brasilia had signed a protocol for exporting corn from Brazil to China in 2014 but little trade had happened due to complex inspection requirements.

☆ Wheat retreats as Ukrainian shipments continue despite Russia's pullout
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Naveen Thukral | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Soybeans gained more ground, climbing to their highest in more than a month, while corn ticked lower. "While Russia pulled out of the export grain corridor deal from Ukraine, there was still grain flowing out of Ukraine," Hightower said in a report. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that his country would continue exporting grain from its Black Sea ports because the shipments offered stability to world food markets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday rated 28% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, the lowest for this time of year in records dating to 1987, underscoring the effects of persistent drought in the Plains wheat belt. Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat, soybean, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said.

☆ Wheat eases from 2-week top on Black Sea supplies; soy, corn down
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Soybeans and corn lost ground after closing higher on Monday with a rapid pace of U.S. harvest weighing on prices. * Losses in the wheat market were curbed by dryness hitting the U.S. winter crop. For corn, the harvest was 76% complete, ahead of the average analyst estimate of 75% and the five-year average of 64%. * Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat, soybean, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0030 Japan JibunkBK Mfg PMI Final SA Oct0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Oct0330 Australia RBA Cash Rate Nov0700 UK Nationwide house price MM, YY Oct0930 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg PMI Final Oct1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final Oct1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMI OctU.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committeestarts its two-day meeting on interest ratesReporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Through Friday, CBOT soybean oil futures had risen 16% this month and Malaysian palm oil futures was up 20% as global vegetable oil supply concerns persist. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean oil futures and optionsBoth soyoil and soymeal futures notched 4% gains in the last three sessions, lifting soyoil above 70 cents per pound. Money managers in that period reduced their net long in CBOT corn futures and options by about 13,000 to 254,261 contracts. Funds’ net long in corn is larger than in the same weeks in 2021 and 2020, both of which were around 220,000 contracts. Money managers cut nearly 2,600 contracts from their CBOT wheat net short, which fell to 22,051 futures and options contracts.

Based on U.S. export inspection data, the United States exported roughly 145 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds in calendar year 2021. In 2021, some 42% of October-December soybean shipments to China left from the U.S. Gulf versus 52% from Pacific ports, though the Gulf share was 58% in 2020. Through 29 days of September, soybean sales to all destinations of 3.1 million tonnes were an 11-year low for the month. About two-thirds of all U.S. grain shipments to Mexico are shipped via interior methods such as rail, but the other third relies on the Gulf. Interior exports accounted for 14% of all U.S. grain and oilseeds last year, third behind the Gulf and Pacific regions.

Competitively priced South American offerings have recently undercut U.S. business and the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest looms large, increasing pressure on U.S. soybean exporters’ performance through the end of the year. The U.S. soybean harvest is likely picking up this week, so any logistical interruptions are poorly timed. Soybean export inspections are already lagging more than expected, having fallen below the range of trade estimates in three of the last five weeks. Argentine farmers for the first time in six years may increase soybean area for the upcoming season, potentially boosting output more than 15% on the year. Brazil’s recent record-large corn harvest has lifted shipments to or near all-time highs in the latest two months.

Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 15% in those eight weeks, remaining just under $7 per bushel at their peak. Corn futures settled at $6.76-3/4 per bushel Friday, easing with broader commodities and equities, though they remain at the second highest levels for the date behind 2012. Subpar global crops have supported corn futures, but demand concerns loom. Money managers’ bullish CBOT soybean meal views are easily record high for the date, surging by more than 14,000 contracts through Sept. 20 to 102,168 futures and options contracts. That was associated with a 3.7% jump in futures, and it was funds’ biggest meal buying week since November.

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