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But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."

Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States

☆ Euro gains, yen struggles in central bank-packed week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A Reuters report on Monday citing six sources said the debate over the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks was likely to start next month. However, this might not be enough to give the euro a more sustained boost, according to Lee Hardman, a strategist at MUFG. "While the ECB’s reported plans to tighten excess liquidity in the euro area have helped to support the euro, they are unlikely to be sufficient on their own to turn the current weakening trend," he said. This week brings a raft of central bank meetings, including those of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others, which kept currency volatility on the subdued side. In other currencies, sterling edged up 0.1% at $1.2398, ahead of an interest rate decision from the BoE on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lee Hardman, Kazuo Ueda, Rodrigo Catril, Erik Weisman, BoE, Rae Wee, Lincoln, Peter Graff, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, National Australia Bank, NAB, U.S, Fed, MFS Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Yen flounders, dollar drifts ahead of c.bank bonanza
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The yen fell 0.1% to 147.76 per dollar and was kept pinned near last week's 10-month low of 147.95 per dollar. The euro meanwhile gave up some of its gains from the previous session and was last 0.12% lower at $1.0678. It had risen alongside euro zone government bond yields on Monday, following hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers that further rate increases were on the cards. In other currencies, sterling edged 0.04% higher to $1.2390, ahead of an interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE) also due this week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kazuo Ueda, Rodrigo Catril, Erik Weisman, NAB's Catril, BoE, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Wednesday, Bank of Japan's, National Australia Bank, NAB, Reserve Bank of Australia's, U.S, New Zealand, Fed, MFS Investment Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia

☆ Euro gains; yen flounders ahead of c.bank bonanza
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In this photo illustration, banknotes of Euro, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan and US dollar bill are placed under one-ounce silver bullion coins arranged on February 20, 2021 in Katwijk, Netherlands. The euro clung to gains on Tuesday following hawkish comments from European Central Bank, or ECB, policymakers, while the yen languished near a 10-month low ahead of a key rate decision from the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, later in the week. In Asia, the yen slipped marginally to 147.64 per dollar and was kept pinned near last week's 10-month low of 147.95 per dollar. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar edged broadly lower, though strayed not too far from a six-month peak hit against its major peers last week ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Sterling edged 0.04% higher to $1.2390, ahead of an interest rate decision from the Bank of England, or BoE, also due this week.

Persons: Yuan, Rodrigo Catril, Kazuo Ueda, Erik Weisman, BoE Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, ECB, National Australia Bank, Reuters, U.S, New Zealand, Fed, MFS Investment Management, Bank of England Locations: Katwijk , Netherlands, Asia

A view shows the placards of the political parties in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt, Germany, September 14, 2023. The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro has already raised interest rates 10 times to record levels but inflation remains well above its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that policymakers had not discussed the bond-buying schemes at their latest policy meeting. She described the PEPP as the ECB's "first line of defence" to preserve policy transmission - central bank jargon for bond market stability in the most indebted countries. Slovenian central bank governor Bostjan Vasle recently backed selling bonds bought under the ECB's older Asset Purchase Programme, which is less flexible than the PEPP.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Christine Lagarde, Bostjan Vasle, Peter Kazimir, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, FRANKFURT, Athens, Slovenian, PEPP, Sintra

☆ ‘Sea Chantey’ Night at the Bar: A Rowdy, Joyous Ritual for Landlubbers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( Amelia Nierenberg | More About Amelia Nierenberg | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

“Rolling down to Old Maui, rolling down to Old Maui,” they sang. “We’re homeward bound from the Arctic ground, rolling down to Old Maui.”The centuries-old harmonies overlapped, swelling to the corners of the original ceiling. Dozens of patrons stomped on the uneven wooden floorboards as they sang, sloshing Guinness over the rims of their pint glasses. “It just gets the cobwebs out of your soul,” said Kitsie Reeves, 68, a former flight attendant who has loved sea music for decades. “It’s like a porthole into the past.”

Persons: ”, “, stomped, sloshing Guinness, Kitsie Reeves Locations: Essex, Conn, “, Old Maui, ”

☆ Why Are We Obsessed With the Destruction of L.A.?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Ismail Muhammad | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

For them the flooding was ordained by God, a sign that they were vindicated in a running feud with the team. For many of these conservatives, the ultimate decision to host the Sisters earned the Dodgers a special place in hell. The next day, the Dodgers’ official X and Instagram accounts posted images of a dry and sunny scene at the ballpark. In the movies, L.A. is the place where everything goes wrong; at least the rest of the nation can take lessons from its failures. How, I wonder, does the new visual language of social media train us to understand the world?

Persons: God, Marco Rubio, “, Bill Donohue, Charlton Heston, Tom Szczerbowski Organizations: Dodgers, Catholic League, Spunky Conservative Patriot, Los Angeles Times, Charlton, National Guard, Dodger Locations: California, Southern California, Eden, Black

Some deal makers wonder whether tennis, which has already confirmed initial talks with Saudi Arabia, will be the fund’s next target. “Of all the important sports around the world, I think tennis is clearly the one with the greatest opportunity for financial growth and the most unrealized value,” Maria Sharapova, the retired tennis star, told DealBook. Despite the popularity of tennis, the sport brings in only 1.3 percent of earnings from global media sports rights. That’s partly because tennis is made up of myriad entities — including the Women’s Tennis Association; the U.S. Tennis Association; and independent tournaments. The independently operated organizations make scheduling tournaments difficult and diminish bargaining power for sponsorship and media deals.

Persons: Novak Djokovic, Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, ” Maria Sharapova, DealBook Organizations: U.S, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Women’s Tennis Association, U.S . Tennis Association Locations: Saudi Arabia, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany

☆ Stingy UK bank saving rates may become a non-issue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Banks are keeping the fruits of higher interest rates for themselves. Between January 2022 and May 2023, the Bank of England hiked rates by 4.25 percentage points. The nine largest UK banks boosted the interest on easy-access savings accounts by 1.18 percentage points, the FCA found. The upshot is that they’ll have to bid more aggressively for funding in the future, for example by raising interest rates on savings accounts. Second-quarter results suggest it too is paying more for funding: interest expense almost doubled between the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023.

Persons: juicier, BoE, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Authority, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, Bank of, FCA, Monday, Reuters Graphics Reuters, NatWest, Barclays ’, Lloyds, Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, Spanish, Financial, HSBC, Santander UK, Nationwide Building Society, TSB Bank, Virgin Money, Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Spain, Bank of England, Italy, Hungary

☆ Welcome to the Dollar War: a Global Fight Over America's Economic Dominance
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +17 min

The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?

Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, —, Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing

☆ Opinion | Forget About Hiding From Climate Chaos in America
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Jonathan Mingle | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

LINCOLN, Vt. — The capital of Vermont — the state that often tops those “best states to move to avoid climate change” lists — was, until Tuesday afternoon, mostly underwater. Swollen by record-breaking rainfall, the Winooski River claimed nearly the entire downtown area of Montpelier late Monday. Swift-water rescue teams helped people escape from the upper floors of apartments not far from the gold-domed State Capitol. The receding water sloshing in our streets was ferried by storm tracks from fast-warming seas 1,000 miles south. The storm dumped four to nine inches of rain on towns up and down the Green Mountain State, where the ground was already saturated.

Persons: —, Vermonters Organizations: Mountain State Locations: LINCOLN, Vt, Vermont, Montpelier, Monday, Ludlow, Richmond, Weston

At present, minimum reserves are remunerated at the ECB's deposit rate, now 3.5% after a string of interest rate hikes to tame inflation. The sources said some staff advocate leaving an adjustment of the corridor until the ECB ends its current tightening cycle, with the final move a change in the deposit rate. The ECB has given itself a year-end deadline to decide, the sources said, although details could take longer to work out. Now, the deposit rate effectively sets an interest rate floor, similar to the way U.S. Federal Reserve rates function and the sources indicated this was likely to remain the case. Such a "demand driven floor-system" would let the ECB add excess liquidity as needed as opposed to running a permanently oversized balance sheet.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Catherine Evans Organizations: Staff, Senior European Central Bank, Reuters, Market, ECB, Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Helsinki, SINTRA, Portugal, Sintra, Finland

☆ ECB mulls changing spread between rates in step towards new era - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, June 15 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers began this week a debate on evening out the "corridor" between the ECB's three interest rates, in a first step towards an era in which money is scarcer, five sources told Reuters. The ECB currently pays banks a 3.5% interest on their deposits while lenders can borrow from the central bank at 4% for a week and 4.25% overnight. They also argued that their hands were full with interest rate hikes and a cut in the bank's balance sheet. But the topic was set to become more relevant in the coming months as liquidity is drained from the banking system. Reporting By Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Frank Siebelt, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Staff, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

For some, the answer to exuberant markets lies in the ample cash still sloshing around the financial system. Total global liquidity, a measure of cash and credit in the world economy, has risen to almost $170 trillion in June, Crossborder calculates, from $158 trillion in October. Central banks have added a net $1.7 trillion into money markets since November, it also estimates, a move that correlates with a risk-taking trend. But an alternative scenario is that U.S. money market funds, stuffed with cash after depositors fled regional banks in March, buy enough newly issued Treasuries to keep rates stable. "Liquidity is not a force that reverberates immediately into financial markets," said JPMorgan global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Persons: Michael Howell, Crossborder, Richard Clarida, Georgina Taylor, Ken Taubes, reverberates, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Morgan Stanley, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Crossborder Capital, U.S, Reuters, BNP, JPMorgan, Apple, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Wall Street meanders, dollar gains as Fed rate hike seen in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"My sense is that the labor market and CPI would favor the Fed raising rates again. However, what has made the market have second thoughts is the extent of the tightening of lending." The dollar index rose 0.52% and the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, added 4.2 basis points to 4.014%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.03%. The dollar extended gains against the yen to 133.87 , the highest since March 15, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

☆ Sticky inflation fuels some of ECB's worst fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overall inflation eased a touch to 8.5% last month from 8.6% in January, data on Thursday showed. But nearly all the drop came from lower energy costs, while prices for most other items - including food, services and durable goods - surged again, confirming the worst fears of some ECB policymakers. A jump in underlying inflation - to 5.6% from 5.3% - reinforces already copious evidence that past price rises are filtering down into the broader economy, including via wages. "Core inflation and other measures of underlying inflation were likely to be stickier, with only limited evidence of a stabilisation so far," the ECB said in the accounts of the Feb. 1-2 meeting. "In particular, we upgrade (the rate hike view in) May from 25bp to 50bp, which takes our terminal rate forecast to 3.75% in June."

☆ Global debt sees first annual drop since 2015 - IIF
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Institute of International Finance report published on Wednesday estimated that the nominal value of global debt declined by some $4 trillion, bringing it fractionally back under the $300 trillion threshold breached in 2021. Stronger economic activity and higher inflation meanwhile, both of which erode debt levels, saw the global debt-to-GDP ratio drop over 12 percentage points to 338% of GDP, marking the second annual drop in a row. Again, though, the improvement was driven by developed markets which saw an overall 20 percentage points fall to 390%. The emerging market debt ratio rose by 2 percentage points meanwhile to 250% of GDP, largely driven by China and Singapore. the IIF said, adding that it had pushed international investor demand for local currency EM debt to multi-year lows, "with no sign of imminent recovery".

☆ U.S. inflation roller coaster prompts fresh look at long-ignored money supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The recent decline in the money supply comes as the Fed has been aggressively raising rates to push inflation back to its 2% target. That dynamic changed in the last two years, though, with money supply trends moving in roughly the same direction as inflation pressures: As money supply rose rapidly into early 2022, so did inflation; since M2 started a persistent decline last summer, inflation pressures have also receded. To be sure, measuring money supply is complicated, with no one way to do it. Bullard, acknowledging the cooling off of money supply, said this downshift in money "bodes well for disinflation," which means the Fed is likely to face an enduring trend of lower price pressures. Economists, meanwhile, are still taking on board whether money supply is something they need to pay greater mind to as they contemplate monetary policy and inflation.

☆ ChatGPT-style A.I. replaced crypto as the hot tech topic for Davos crowd at 2023's WEF summit
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesAttendees of the annual World Economic Forum couldn't get enough of a new development in the realm of artificial intelligence: generative AI. Most machine learning tools rely on existing information and identify patterns in the data to pick out trends or reach a preferred outcome. Generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Dall-E stand out from the crowd through their ability to take data inputs and create new content. This week at the WEF forum in Davos, Switzerland, generative AI virtually replaced crypto and so-called "Web3" as the hyped technology of choice for top business executives and policymakers. "Generative AI has a huge potential," said Hiroaki Kitano, CEO of Sony Computer Science Laboratories, on Tuesday's generative AI panel.

Mercedes-Benz is recalling 324,000 vehicles that are at risk of stalling due to a water-intrusion defect. The notice affects Mercedes ML and GLE sport-utility vehicles for model years 2012-2020. The issue stems from a possible design flaw that can cause water to build up in a vehicle's spare wheel well, which can set off a device that causes the engine to shut down. According to the notice, dealers have already been notified of the recall, and owners will be notified before Feb. 21, 2023. Owners will be asked to take their vehicles in for an inspection.

☆ Here's how beauty brand Alleyoop saved $230,000 in payroll taxes through a little-known federal program as venture capital dries up
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Melia Russell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The beauty startup Alleyoop shared part of the application it used to earn $230,000 in tax credits. AlleyoopIn its application, Alleyoop said that Kashani, who leads product development, and other technical personnel met the program's criteria in designing "a state-of-the-art all-in-one portable razor." It described creating 3D models during product development and determining the best materials to "maximize protection from pathogens while maintaining the product's functionality." Concept FormationMany of these solutions required the Project Team to design products that met extremely narrow spatial specifications. R&D ObjectivesSphynx's objectives required the Project Team to design and research new ideas and transform them into viable prototypes suitable for testing out hypotheses regarding design parameters.

☆ Jim Cramer says these 8 stocks can withstand the Fed’s tightening cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday offered investors a list of stocks that he thinks will weather the market turbulence ahead. Leaders like health care, leaders like the oils, leaders like the financials that lay off people as a matter of course. He also echoed his sentiment that tech stocks are no longer market leaders and should be avoided. "When there was lots of free money sloshing around, you wanted to know how much free money you could get. Disclaimer: Cramer's Charitable Trust owns shares of Constellation Brands, Eli Lilly, Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson.

For these reasons, the ECB said banks would have to start paying going rates on their TLTRO credit, rather than the average rate over the whole duration of the loans. But the rate the ECB pays commercial banks is now back in positive territory and is likely to rise further. Analysts have warned changing the terms of loans already outstanding could deter banks from tapping similar loans in future downturns. The TLTRO cash also creates additional demand for low-risk securities, limiting the rise in rates on repurchase agreements and short-dated government bond yields. , Lagarde said that also factored into the ECB's decision.

☆ ECB's Lagarde sticks to rate hikes as bond debate starts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday singled out interest rate increases as the best tool to fight runaway inflation in the euro zone even as a debate about mopping up excess cash got underway. Trying to fight runaway prices, the ECB has raised its rate on bank deposits to 0.75%, promised more hikes and begun a debate about whittling down its 3.3-trillion-euro ($3.20 trillion) bond holdings - legacy of its fight against deflation in the last decade. Lagarde emphasized rate hikes as the ECB instrument of choice at present even as other policymakers began publicly debating how and when to stop reinvesting some of the proceeds from the debt the central bank had bought since 2015. Also speaking in Washington, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said the ECB needed at least two more rate hikes of up to 75 basis points each before reaching the neutral level, where it neither stimulates nor curbs the economy. Lagarde acknowledged the discussion about this so-called "quantitative tightening" had started and would continue.

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