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A subsequent pullback saw the price bounce off that breakout level, which also lined up with the 50-day moving average. This is a sector full of low-volatility, high yielding stocks that have often provided downside protection in down market phases. ES just broke to a new three-month high this week, and the stock features a dividend yield around 4.5%. When the broad market averages take a bearish turn, equity investors are often best served by getting defensive. These three stocks feature improving technical profiles, along with dividend yields well above the average for the S & P 500.
Persons: Philip Morris, BTI, Eversource, we've, David Keller Organizations: American Tobacco PLC, Eversource Energy, Eversource, Nasdaq, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, British American
During earnings season, we can gain value from the charts by judging how stocks react to their reports. We are especially mindful of support and resistance levels, watching for breakouts and breakdowns as technical catalysts. This supports upside follow-through for IQV in the weeks ahead towards resistance from a Fibonacci retracement level near $258. We ultimately expect the stock to retest final resistance, near $285, with a long-term time horizon. Long-term support on the chart is defined by the weekly cloud model, which rises to roughly $215 next month.
Persons: Katie Stockton, Will Tamplin Organizations: IQVIA Holdings, IQV, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IQV
Gold climbs as traders brace for U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices firmed for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data due later in the day for more insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Gold prices firmed for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data due later in the day for more insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Any downside surprise in the CPI report could weaken the dollar and push up gold prices to the $2,400 level, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank would make interest rate decisions "when and as" they were needed. Spot silver climbed 0.7% to $31.04 per ounce, platinum firmed 0.4% to $993.25 and palladium gained 0.7% to $992.90.
Persons: Edward Meir ., Lisa Cook, Meir, Jerome Powell, Wang Tao Organizations: Index, Traders Locations: U.S
Bitcoin is not expected to retest its record until later this year, but data shows this correction could get uglier before a recovery begins — similar to how the cryptocurrency fared between two all-time highs in 2021. A bitcoin valuation indicator, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, is currently hovering around its own 365-day moving average. "Bitcoin is at a level where a local bottom can form or a major 'summer of 2021' style correction can occur," said Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research. "Prices have typically bottomed out when traders' margins touch extremely negative levels as seen currently." Bitcoin is currently retesting key support at $57,000 for a third day after sliding below that level last week.
Persons: Bitcoin, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's, Moreno Organizations: Traders
Gold inches up after weak data fuels U.S. rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Gold prices drifted higher on Thursday after softer-than-expected U.S. economic data fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as soon as September. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,362.10 per ounce, as of 0200 GMT after hitting a near two-week high in the previous session. U.S. economic data on Wednesday, including a weak services and ADP employment reports, showed a slowing economy. "A softer-than-expected ISM services report was the gift that Fed doves have been waiting for ahead of a NFP. Markets are now pricing in a 74% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Matt Simpson Organizations: Federal, Traders, NFP, U.S Locations: U.S
Bitcoin's blues could linger throughout July, but investors are still optimistic about the cryptocurrency in the second half of the year. July is usually a strong month for bitcoin, which has finished higher for the month in seven of the last 11 years, according to CoinGlass. "There are always other known potential sources of bitcoin supply from government for example, but it's always uncertain when that's coming to market. This week, the crypto market was startled when the U.S. and German governments sent large amounts of previously seized bitcoin to exchanges, according to CryptoQuant. Marion Laboure, senior strategist at Deutsche Bank Research, said growing demand for crypto ETFs will help keep bitcoin's price "elevated" in the months ahead.
Persons: bitcoin, Zach Pandl, it's, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Pandl, Trump, Marion Laboure, 21Shares, Michael Bloom Organizations: Metrics, Federal, U.S ., Deutsche Bank Research, Solana Locations: U.S, Mt
In a more defensive environment, we instead gravitate to lower volatility, higher dividend-paying stocks. By October, AT & T had pounded out a series of higher lows, confirming a rotation to a bullish trend. As a long-term trend gauge, I would assume that any price action above this trendline is still within the context of a bullish phase. I've also drawn a short-term trendline in pink, lining up the price lows in April, May, and June. Since an uptrend is formed by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, then a consistent short-term uptrend would most likely remain above this trendline.
Persons: we've, I've, I'm, David Keller Organizations: CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, & $
Economists polled by Reuters expect headline consumer price inflation to ease to 0.1% from 0.3% last month, and core price inflation to remain steady on the month at 0.3%. Powell is likely to strike a relatively dovish tone at the press conference, however, given disappointing growth indicators since the last Fed meeting, Williams said. Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.4% in the year to May, Bank of Japan data showed on Wednesday, beating market forecasts for a 2% increase. The yen held steady at 157.16 per greenback after slipping to its lowest since June 3 at 157.40 the previous day. While Japan's central bank will likely discuss bond buying cuts to pre-empt yen selling pressure, dollar/volatility this week largely depend on Wednesday's U.S. CPI and Fed meeting, he added.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Kieran Williams, Powell, Williams, Emmanuel Macron's, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Consumer, Fed, Reuters, Asia FX, InTouch, Bank of Japan, Bank of, DBS, CPI Locations: Czech, U.S, Asia, Bank of Japan
Emerging markets investors have had a bumpy week after surprising election results seem to have caught at least some traders off guard. Between now and Nov. 5 are almost all negative potential risks in Mexico," Joshi added. Elsewhere in the world There are other lingering political issues that could affect emerging market investing. And for investors in broad emerging markets funds, even positive developments in some of these countries can be overshadowed by what happens in China. "It's a very large weight so it's going to drive the emerging market index quite a bit.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Aastha Gudwani, Angus Shillington, Shillington, Adam Turnquist, We've, Turnquist, Claudia Sheinbaum, Andres Manual Lopez, Morgan Stanley's Nikolaj Lippmann, Arif Joshi, Joshi, Sheinbaum, Lopez, Claudia, Polina Kurdyavko, Javier Milei, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, Grindal, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Indian, Bank of America India, CNBC, LPL, Lazard Asset, RBC Global Asset Management, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Federal Reserve Locations: India, Mexico, South Asia, VanEck, U.S, Morena, South Africa, Argentina, China
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: TAN, Katie Stockton Organizations: Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: TAN
We're using the closing prices here to make it easier to detect a "bullish momentum divergence," which is where prices are trending down, but price momentum is actually trending higher. This disagreement between price and momentum often occurs at market lows and can serve as an important indicator of a trend rotation. In August-September 2023, this bullish divergence led to a 20% rally into year-end 2023. Off the COVID low in 2020, we've seen fairly consistent support around $110, which was last tested in March 2023. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: we've, David Keller Organizations: Arts, EA, Electronic Arts, RSI, CMT
Breaking down the market charts The S & P 500 broke out above the 2021 highs of 4,820 in the first two weeks of this year. Again, I don't know. I don't know. And I'm content to come before you and say I don't know and we can't know. This measures how much premium is embedded in the at the money puts and calls in the S & P 500.
Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management
Blood biomarkers of telltale signs of early Alzheimer’s disease in the brain of his patient, 55-year-old entrepreneur Simon Nicholls, had all but disappeared in a mere 14 months. “I don’t use the term ‘reverse.’ I don’t know what reverse means when it comes to the field of Alzheimer’s,” Isaacson said. ‘It was time to turn to my brain’Slowly, Nicholls’ heart condition began to improve, but the bad news didn’t end there. A brain scan found telltale signs of vascular damage in Nicholls’ brain, which occurs when the tiniest blood vessels are starved of oxygen. Not only was Nicholls blood negative for amyloid and tau, the test suggested that his brain amyloid might be normal, with no distinguishable signs of the disease.
Persons: Sanjay Gupta, Anderson Cooper ”, Richard Isaacson, Simon Nicholls, , , Isaacson, “ Simon, ” Isaacson, Nicholls, ” Nicholls, Anderson Cooper, It’s, APOE4, Simon, ” Simon Nicholls, Sylver, Lewy, Richard Isaacson ‘, APOE ε4, “ I’ve, Isaacson doesn’t, “ I’m, Shocked, Dr, we’d, “ It’s, Salvadore, Richard Isaacson “, ‘ It’s, I’m Organizations: CNN, telltale, ” CNN, Boca Raton Locations: Boca Raton , Florida, New York City, Florida, Nature, Miami, Isaacson’s Florida, tirzepatide
Let's take a look at how gold stocks have fared and see how recent price action suggests the uptrend is nowhere near completed. While gold stocks tend to be very much tied to the performance of the underlying commodity, there will often be periods of dislocation, where gold and gold miners appear to be more disconnected. This appears to have occurred in the first quarter, when physical gold was fairly flat, but gold miners were sold off into a February low. The chart of Royal Gold (RGLD) shows that the early breakouts are beginning to occur. Given the strength in the charts of physical gold and gold miners, this group may serve as a compelling opportunity going into the summer months.
Persons: Let's, David Keller Organizations: Nasdaq, Gold Miners, CMT
"It could take three to five months for bitcoin to re-test recent highs," H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese told CNBC. BTC.CM= 3M mountain Bitcoin has fallen 11% this quarter Bitcoin miners offer high beta exposure to bitcoin and have historically outperformed it during bull cycles, he added. Colonnese also pointed out that corrections between 25% and 30% are "par for the course" for bitcoin, even in bull cycles. "Looking at previous price cycles, bitcoin has historically peaked between one to one and a half years after a halving event with the bull stage running longer in each subsequent cycle," Colonnese said. "Assuming a similar duration for this bull stage of the price cycle, bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until October 2025," Colonnese added.
Persons: it's, bitcoin, Wainwright, Mike Colonnese, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Colonnese, Bitcoin, It's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, Metrics, CNBC, Wolfe Research
But the real story from a technical perspective is that this week's move appears to complete a "big base breakout" pattern — a sign of potentially much greater gains in the coming months. This resistance level continued to hold, with subsequent peaks through the end of 2022 and into 2023 all hitting this same price point before rebounding lower. In March of this year, SQSP finally broke above this resistance level around $33.70, which then became a support level in late April. 'Big base breakout' The daily chart shows how often this $33-34 range was tested all through 2023 and into early 2024. One of the key features of a "big base breakout" is a frequent test of the upper end of the trading range.
Persons: Squarespace, SQSP, Alan Shaw, David Keller Organizations: Squarespace Inc, CMT
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering below levels that caused a massive crash last fall. Yet, persistent inflation and weak Treasury auctions could boost yields past the 5% mark. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. That's why Treasury auctions have become attention-grabbers for markets, as investors watch to see if there are enough willing buyers. The dangers of 5%When 10-year yields broke through the 5% mark last fall, traders panicked and the S&P 500 nosedived nearly 6% from October's peak-to-trough.
Persons: , That's, Treasurys, Bill Gross, Ed Yardeni, Eric Sterner, Yardeni, hasn't, they're, Goldman Sachs, Sterner Organizations: Service, Treasury, Business, Treasury Department, Federal, Yardeni Research, Investment, SEI, Apollon Wealth Management
The S & P 500 is down by more than 3% this month, though it has still registered a more than 6% advance for the year. But many investors worry stocks have further to go before finding a durable bottom. They say stocks look overvalued even after the recent pullback, and they cite troubling headwinds for equities. 'Sell in May and go away' May has a reputation as a historically weak month for stocks. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that stocks have actually been higher in May during the last nine out of 10 years.
Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jeff Hirsch, he's, It's, Hirsch, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury Bond ETF
Investors shouldn't get too scared by the recent market pullback, according to Bank of America. The firm believes the recent downside movement is a promising entry point before the market returns to green this summer. April marks the worst month for the S & P 500 since September 2023 as investors' expectations for rate cuts fell on hot economic data. As of Tuesday morning, the S & P 500 was last trading around 5,100. The S & P 500 has tested its 5,000 support level, Suttmeier added.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America Locations: upsides
Since February, Meta Platforms has been trending slightly higher on weaker price momentum. Since early 2023, META has experienced a period of remarkably positive price momentum. META has been trending slightly higher since February, yet the RSI has been sloping downwards. Thursday's initial gap lower dropped META right into the middle of the price gap formed in early February. This would also mean a retest of the 200-day moving average, which META has not touched since February 2023.
Persons: We'll, — David Keller Organizations: RSI, CMT
Our review of the charts of precious metals tells us that the recent rally in gold prices could be just the early stages of a broad advance in the second quarter and beyond. Interestingly enough, gold stocks have actually been underperforming gold for most of the last 12 months. But over the last six weeks, gold miners have shown renewed strength, outperforming spot gold. This may be just the beginning of a "catch up" trade where gold miners close the performance gap with gold. Gold stocks have been lagging behind spot gold, but that trend of underperformance has begun to change in the last six weeks.
Persons: Alan Shaw, David Keller Organizations: Gold Miners, CMT Locations: retest
Alaska Air shares just getting started Alaska Air Group has recently broken above a key resistance level and could represent a compelling option for investors searching for stocks earlier on in their uptrends. Alaska remained below that retracement level as well as a declining 200-day moving average until this week. Now we're seeing ALK power above $42 with an initial upside target at the 61.8% retracement level around $47. The momentum characteristics are consistent with bullish phases, with Alaska becoming overbought this week after a quick rise. While overbought conditions could indicate a short-term pullback in the coming weeks, we're inclined to assume this uptrend could be just getting started.
Persons: we've, — David Keller Organizations: Nasdaq, US Global Jets ETF, JETS, Alaska Air Group, Alaska Air, CMT Locations: Alaska
CNN —The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, which rates cars and SUVs for safety, examined so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Tesla Autopilot and found them wanting. Of the 14 systems tested by the agency, 11 earned a “poor” rating including Tesla’s Autopilot and so-called Full Self Driving systems. Insurance Institute test drivers also looked at what would happen if the driver became incapacitated with the automated driving system in use. Of the systems tested, only GM’s Super Cruise handled that sort of situation the proper way, according to the Institute. The Insurance Institute will continue to monitor software updates and improvements and will periodically retest the systems, Harkey said.
Persons: , David Harkey, Harkey, , ” Harkey, ” Nissan, Ford, BlueCruise, ” Ford Organizations: CNN, The Insurance Institute for Highway, Ford, Nissan, , Insurance, ” Insurance, Traffic, Administration, The Insurance Institute, Institute, The, . Insurance, Cruise, Tesla, GM, Insurance Institute for Highway, Insurance Institute
Bitcoin charged to new highs on Tuesday, but then retreated about 14%, sending a scare into the market. I've been following the bitcoin story for 10 years now, opened my first Coinbase account back in 2014 and bought bitcoin at $330. Are tech stocks — like semiconductors — acting as a leading indicator for bitcoin, signaling a sustained move through the highs? Higher rates and a higher dollar put downward pressure on U.S. tech stocks and bitcoin due to their positive correlation demonstrated above. As a result, tech stocks and Bitcoin are rallying.
Persons: Bitcoin, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, bitcoin, It's, Gordon, GBTC Organizations: Nvidia, VanEck Semiconductor, BTC, Nasdaq, U.S ., Financial Services, Treasury, U.S, Elliott Locations: bitcoin
Biotechnology stocks have recently shown renewed strength, and improving momentum may just push these names toward the top of the leaderboard. Second, this level also represented a 38.2% retracement level based on the 2021 high and 2022 low, which is a widely followed support level based on the Fibonacci methodology. This week, IBB has bounced off that support level, making a new 52-week high as it briefly pushed above the 50% retracement level around $140. The weekly chart reinforces that biotechnology stocks may still be in the early stages of this advance, with lots of daylight between current levels and the 2021 highs. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: IBB, David Keller Organizations: Biotechnology, Nasdaq Biotechnology, CMT
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