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Now, some are wondering if the central bank might not cut rates at all in 2024. He expects the central bank to cut rates two to four times this year. Plus, there’s no official indication that the central bank won’t cut rates this year. • If the neutral interest rate, or the rate that maintains full employment and stable inflation, is revised upward closer to 3.5%. The neutral rate should be 2.5%, based on Fed officials’ estimates for the central bank’s key interest rate, inflation and unemployment.
Persons: stoked, Stocks, won’t pare, , Tom Graff, Jerome Powell, Oliver Darcy, , Eddy, Apple’s, Read, Here’s what’s, Chris Isidore Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Deutsche Bank economists, ” Apple, Wednesday, Apple Sports, NBA, NHL, MLS, NCAA, NFL, MLB, ESPN, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, SAG Locations: New York, America
Ray Francis, Celebrating Blackness
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Blake Gopnik | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
In the late 1970s, in Montreal, photography students were obsessed with getting deep blacks — “max black” — in our prints, squeezing the full range of tones out of our black-and-white photo paper. Few of us realized there might be more to blackness than a lack of light. We didn’t understand that in the right hands, the deep, deep blacks might speak to far more than a darkroom technique — to issues of race and segregation. Four hundred miles south of us, in New York, Ray Francis was printing shots that had the bold shadows we were striving for. Thirty-two of his prints are on view now in “Waiting to Be Seen: Illuminating the Photographs of Ray Francis,” at the Bruce Silverstein gallery in Chelsea, a posthumous show that is Francis’s first solo presentation.
Persons: Ansel Adams moonrise, Ray Francis, , Bruce Silverstein Locations: Montreal, New York, Chelsea
Stocks and bonds both sold off as investors painfully recalibrated their expectations for five to six interest rate cuts this year to align more with the Fed’s projected three cuts. For example, Yardeni Research has pushed back against the idea that immediate rate cuts are necessary to avoid the Fed overshooting on slowing the economy. Stocks wouldn’t crater even if cuts were off the table completely in 2024, according to Bank of America, despite what Tuesday’s losses suggest. “No cuts could stymie a full-fledged recovery in more credit-sensitive areas,” wrote BofA strategists in a note on February 9. That means regional lenders will no longer have that crutch if they run into trouble after the program’s expiration on March 11.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Ed Yardeni, it’s, Marc Dizard, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, ” Read, Alicia Wallace, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Traders, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, US Treasury, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Yardeni Research, Bank of America, PNC Asset Management Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
If nothing else, the January inflation report released Tuesday finally appears to have convinced markets that Federal Reserve officials weren't kidding around when they said they will take a deliberate approach to cutting interest rates this year. Following the consumer price index report showing the year-over-year reading well ahead of the Fed's desired inflation goal, markets recalibrated their monetary policy expectations. The Fed "faces a challenging task in balancing economic growth and employment while trying to control inflation," he added. Indeed, the narrative of the Fed being able to start cutting early, and moving rapidly through the year, was all but dead Tuesday. The January CPI report is a "setback for the Fed and makes a May rate cut unlikely.
Persons: Ditto, , it's, Sung Won Sohn, Dow, Jerome Powell, Jason Pride, there's, Powell, Matthew Ryan, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME, Labor, CPI, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Dow Jones, US2Y, CBS, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fed, Evercore ISI
This year’s DealBook Summit will include conversations with global leaders and powerful figures from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood. Jamie Dimon has been the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase since 2006 and its chairman since 2007, making him one of Wall Street’s longest-serving banking leaders. Bob Iger returned as Disney’s chief executive last year, after stepping down from the role in 2020. David Zaslav orchestrated Discovery’s takeover of WarnerMedia and became the chief executive of the new company, Warner Bros. The transaction helped transform his modest cable television company into an empire that includes the Warner Bros. movie and TV studios, HBO and CNN.
Persons: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Kamala Harris, Ms, Harris, Biden’s, Tsai Ing, Tsai, Elon Musk, Musk, Jamie Dimon, Jensen Huang, chipmaker, Bob Iger, Long, Iger, Lina Khan, Khan, , David Zaslav, Jay Monahan, LIV Golf, Monahan, Kevin McCarthy, Mr, McCarthy, Shonda Rhimes, Rhimes Organizations: Wall, Israel, Elon, SpaceX, JPMorgan Chase, First, Nvidia, Fox, Marvel, Pixar, Hollywood, ESPN, Federal Trade Commission, Columbia Law, WarnerMedia, Warner Bros, HBO, CNN, Republican, Republican Party, Shondaland, Netflix Locations: Silicon Valley, Hollywood, United States, California, San Francisco, Gaza, Taiwan, China, First Republic, Saudi
In seeking to extend the pause and hostage releases, Mr. Biden has American interests to consider as well as those of Israel. Mr. Biden hopes an extension of the pause in exchange for the release of more hostages will result in the rest of the Americans being freed. “We’ll continue to remain personally engaged to see that this deal is fully implemented and work to extend the deal as well,” Mr. Biden told reporters. The release of Avigail gave Mr. Biden a small but emotionally powerful victory amid all the tumult in the region. “She’s been through a terrible trauma,” Mr. Biden said.
Persons: Biden, Idan, Mr, Benjamin Netanyahu, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad, “ He’s, ” Jake Sullivan, Abigail, “ We’ll, Netanyahu, , , Sullivan, Israel, ” Mr, Biden’s, Chris Christie, Christie, can’t, Tom Cotton, Cotton, Avigail, “ She’s, God she’s Organizations: Sunday, Hamas, Israel, , NBC, Mr, , CNN, Republicans, Republican, “ Fox, European Union Locations: Israel, Gaza, Nantucket, Massachusetts, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al, Thani, Qatar, United States, “ State, New Jersey, Arkansas
The future of interest rates is more surprises
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.
Persons: Claudio Borio, , , Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan
Bed and mattress brand Sleep Number recalibrated its sales and marketing strategy after being surprised by a drop in consumer demand. Photo: Sleep NumberBed and mattress brand Sleep Number said it retooled its marketing approach to emphasize affordability and competitive value after a startling slip in consumer demand contributed to a 13% year-over-year net sales drop and an earnings miss. The company, which reported third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, said though the broader bedding industry has been operating at recessionary levels for two years, it was still surprised to see that demand “abruptly changed” in August and September as consumer purchasing power declined.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Hollywood’s months of labor unrest are coming to an end, but the post-strike landscape that awaits actors and writers may be far from happy-ever-after. That helter-skelter transition threw much of the economics of entertainment out of whack. “Going through that with a streaming service that’s losing billions of dollars is really, really difficult to go on offense.”Cancellations have grown more commonplace as streamers get more selective. Due in part to the strikes, series production will dip for the first time in years in 2023 after reaching an all-time high last year, when 599 original series were made. “And so I think really we will see over the coming days, weeks and months what the industry’s real intentions are.
Persons: , HBO Max, Max ”, , Jonathan Taplin, Crypto, Taplin, Puck’s Matt Belloni, Walt, Bob Iger, ” Iger, I’ve, it’s, Peacock, David Zaslav, Max, ” Zaslav, , Martin Scorsese’s, Ridley Scott’s “ Napoleon, ” Duncan Crabtree, Krysta Fauria Organizations: Hollywood, SAG, HBO, Netflix, USC, Innovation Lab, International Alliance, Walt Disney Co, Disney, Comcast, Warner Bros . Discovery, Apple Studios, Associated Press Locations: Hollywood, Los Angeles
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — The U.S. announced a $553- million project Wednesday to build a new, deep-water shipping container terminal in the Port of Colombo as it competes with China in international development financing. The U.S.-backed financing comes at a time when Sri Lanka is struggling to recover from a dire financial and economic crisis. Sri Lanka borrowed heavily from China to build the port and other infrastructure including an airport and a city being built on reclaimed land. Both neighboring India and China are jostling for influence in Sri Lanka and both have already invested in expanding facilities at the Colombo port. Colombo port also has a terminal run by China Merchants Port Holdings.
Persons: , Scott Nathan, Sri Lanka’s John Keells, Lanka’s, Wang Wenbin, William & Mary, AidData, China's, saysChina, Bradley Parks, , ” ___ Didi Tang Organizations: South, U.S . International Development Finance Corp, West, Local, Sri, Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings, Initiative, Foreign Ministry, China Merchants Port Holdings, CHEC Port City Colombo Co, China Communications Construction Company, William & Locations: COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, U.S, Port, Colombo, China, Bay, Bengal, Beijing, Hambantota Port, Hambantota, India, oceanside, Port City, Virginia, “ Beijing, Washington
Nikki Haley Surges Into Second Place in Iowa Poll
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Susan Milligan | Oct. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
Nikki Haley is surging in support among Iowa Republicans and is now tied for second place in the battle for the GOP nomination in the Hawkeye State, according to a poll released Monday morning. Haley has the first-choice backing of 16% of Iowa Republicans – the same as Florida Gov. The poll was conducted before Trump's vice president, Mike Pence, dropped out of the race on Saturday, saying "this is not my time." Even before the realignment, Pence was struggling, having dropped from 6% support in August to 2% in the current poll. The Iowa poll reflects a new political reality for the 2024 elections, with the nominations for both major political parties appearing to be sewn up with two and a half months to go before the first nominating contest.
Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Trump, , pollster J, Ann Selzer, Haley, Iowa Republicans –, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley, Mike Pence, Pence, Joe Biden, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Dean Phillips, Phillips, James Garfield, Jan Organizations: South Carolina Gov, Iowa Republicans, GOP, Republican, Des Moines Register, NBC, Florida Gov, Suffolk University, Boston Globe, USA, New Hampshire Republican, Tech, New, New Jersey Gov, North Dakota Gov, Arkansas Gov, Pence, Trump, Democratic Locations: Hawkeye, Florida, New Hampshire, DeSantis, New, New Jersey, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota
During the pandemic, customers were flocking to big box stores for all manner of stay-at-home gadgets, including huge televisions and exercise equipment. So Walmart said it re-opened 117 stores in 30 states at a cost of half a billion dollars to keep customers engaged and shopping throughout the store. Walmart has given a major new look, and feel, to 117 stores. WalmartThe makeovers are meant to modernize the look of a Walmart store and the experience in it, the company said. Walmart has given a major new look, and feel, to 117 stores.
Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Walmart, Target Locations: New York
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. bond funds saw significant outflows in the week ending Oct. 4, driven by concerns about prolonged elevated interest rates, while money market funds garnered substantial inflows as investors recalibrated their risk exposure amid a bond market sell-off. According to LSEG data, investors offloaded U.S. bond funds worth a net $6.34 billion during the week, the biggest amount since Dec. 21, 2022. Money market funds meanwhile, received about $43.15 billion in inflows, the highest since April 26, 2023. Investors exited equity growth funds worth $2.05 billion and value funds worth $1.23 billion. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsNotably, consumer staples, healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors observed net outflows of $637 million, $461 million and $397 million, respectively.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, outflows, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, William Maclean Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The economic picture may not have to change much for the surprise element to disappear for markets - underlining the significance of this summer's sometimes grudging admissions of investment strategy missteps. SURPRISE, SURPRISEExceptional U.S. economic surprisesU.S. surprise gaps the widest in decades, excluding pandemicAlong with market moves themselves and skewed positioning monitors, the simplest take on the unpreparedness of investors can be seen in economic surprise indices. The global surprise index is close to zero, suggesting expectations for the world economy in aggregate are actually coming in on cue. And if that happens, it may just suck the oxygen from the stellar equity outperformance over bonds to date. If true, markets may find the going harder without that element of surprise.
Persons: What's, Schroders, Johanna Kyrklund, hasn't, Kyrklund, Chris Iggo, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Graphics, AXA IM Investment, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Europe, Japan, China, U.S
But whose responsibility is the carbon produced when forests burn? In the age of extreme weather and climate agreements, the world has learned to tabulate ecological guilt nation by nation — cutting responsibility for the current crisis into so many slices of pie. If the 20th century taught us the perversity of aggressive fire suppression, the 21st is already teaching us the limits of that lesson. But if the costs to human health of wildfire smoke are larger than from the fires themselves, should the goal be recalibrated? Canada has a gargantuan per capita carbon footprint, in fact, by some measures larger than that of the United States.
Persons: ” Henry Mance, Organizations: U.S ., Canadair, Financial Times Locations: North America, Eurasia, China, United States, India, California, Canada, Russia, Ontario, Quebec, Michigan, Maine, U.S, Los Angeles, Tampa
US stocks were mixed on Friday but closed higher for the week as investors cheered a cooler June inflation report. Second-quarter earnings kicked off on Friday with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock all beating analyst estimates. Investors are expecting the latest earnings season to represent a trough for corporate profits. Results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo beat analyst estimates, while Citigroup posted mixed results that were weighed down by a disappointment in its investment banking division. Investors expect second-quarter earnings results to represent a trough for corporate profits before they begin to rebound.
Persons: Wells Organizations: JPMorgan, BlackRock, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Wells Fargo, Citigroup Locations: Wells Fargo, Wall, Silicon
Early Tuesday, a Ukrainian missile slammed into a hotel in the coastal town of Berdyansk that had been taken over by the Russian military. ‘Colossal support’Russian military bloggers have suggested that both Tsokov and Popov were capable soldiers who inspired loyalty among their men. Tsokov, 51, appears to have been a rising star in the Russian military. Senior Russian general, Ivan Popov, raised questions about the mass deaths and injuries of Russian military personnel. The loss of more capable commanders is another sign that Russia’s “special military operation” is looking less special by the week.
Persons: CNN —, Oleg Tsokov, Tsokov, Ivan Popov, Popov, Valery Gerasimov, vilely, Sergei Shoigu, , Vladimir Putin, Rybar, “ Popov, General Popov, , Wagner, Oleg Surovikin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Surovikin, Prigozhin, Defense Andrei Kartapolov, Kartapolov, specter, OGPU –, Gerasimov, “ alarmism, Shoigu, George Hall, Russia Dara Massicot, Tweeting, Massicot, ” Rybar, upbraided, viscerally, Putin Organizations: CNN, Ukraine –, Southern Military District, Arms Army, Kremlin Press, Major, Institute for, Ukrainian, of Defense, Kremlin, Russia’s Aerospace Forces, State, Defense, Defense Ministry, Senior, Ministry of Defense, Surovik, George Hall of, RAND Corporation, Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian Armed Forces Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, Berdyansk, Russian, Svatove, frontlines, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Senior Russian, St, Russia, Vuhledar
UK-provided Storm Shadows are a new threat to Russian forces operating in Ukraine. Russian forces recently claimed to have recovered a downed missile. The recovered Storm Shadow could hold clues for the Russian military, but there's a question of whether they can learn from them. A Storm Shadow missile is prepared for loading to a Royal Air Force Tornado GR4 aircraft in the Gulf in support of Operation TELIC, March 21, 2003. Throughout the fight in Ukraine, Russian forces have had to learn lessons, but it's often a grinding and costly process.
Persons: Storm, Ben Stansall, Ian Williams, Williams, TELIC, Cpl Mark Bailey, that's, Ben Wallace, it's, there's Organizations: Service, Shadow, Storm, Farnborough, Missile Defense, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Russia, Royal Air Force Tornado, REUTERS, ASA, Su Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Zaporizhzhia, Moscow, France
ChatGPT, a publicly available language-learning AI, was not designed to create things like crochet or knitting patterns. Before we begin …A few notes on my methodology:For every crochet pattern I generated, I used the prompt “Create a crochet pattern for (blank).”I followed the crochet pattern exactly. At first glance, ChatGPT’s crochet patterns look and read exactly like a crochet pattern. In a traditional crochet pattern, instructions for assembly would note specific places and methods to attach pieces, along with photos or notes on particularly tricky steps. Theoretically, it would be possible to create AI that generated amazing crochet patterns, but that would require very specific training and programming.
Persons: , AJ Willingham, ChatGPT, ’ AJ Willingham, You’ll, Yoda ’ AJ Willingham, Yoda, Casey Miller, ” Miller, It’s, Antarctica ’ AJ Willingham, , Al Arab ’ AJ Willingham, CNN I’ll, Khalifa, you’ve, Eliot, don’t Organizations: CNN, Antarctica, Burj Al, Burj Locations: Kennesaw , Georgia, Antarctica, Al Arab, Al, Arab, Dubai, Burj, Arab’s
Why Car Repairs Have Become So Expensive
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Lawrence Ulrich | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
New cars and trucks are packed with sensors and technology that protect and pamper drivers and passengers. But those features are also raising the cost of repairs after accidents. New sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks, including a rapidly growing number of electric models, have become so complex and luxurious that seemingly simple repairs can cost a small fortune, auto experts said. Materials designed to crumple or deform in a crash to protect pedestrians or passengers, for example, can be hard or impossible to repair. Many bumpers must be replaced after low-speed dings because the safety sensors embedded in them may no longer work properly after repairs.
Persons: Mitchell
"We've seen a dramatic expansion of rights for conservative religious communities that has had a detrimental impact on equality rights, certainly for LGBTQ people," said Elizabeth Platt, director of the Law, Rights and Religion Project at Columbia Law School. Smith, who said she opposes gay marriage based on her Christian beliefs, was represented by the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative religious rights group. Still, the ruling illustrated a disparity in how the court views protections for LGBT people in contrast to the competing conservative Christian interests, Platt said. He stood out among conservatives in his espousal of sympathy both for conservative Christian causes and for what is sometimes called the "dignity interests" of marginalized groups including LGBT people. Barrett's addition gave it a 6-3 conservative margin and recalibrated how it weighed conservative Christian causes against the dignity interests of people protected by civil rights laws.
Persons: Read, Lorie Smith, Smith, Elizabeth Platt, Kristen Waggoner, Waggoner, Jack Phillips, Phillips, Platt, Anthony Kennedy, Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's, Neil Gorsuch, Friday's, Amy Coney Barrett, Kennedy, Kennedy's, Hodges, Obergefell, Barrett, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Barrett's, Rachel Laser, John Kruzel, Will Dunham Organizations: U.S, Supreme, Law, Columbia Law School . Colorado, Alliance Defending, Defending, Colorado Civil Rights Commission, FOSTER CARE, Catholic Church, Philadelphia, Republican, Trump, Americans United, and State, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Denver, Colorado, U.S, Fulton, City of Philadelphia, Obergefell
There are pockets of optimism elsewhere in the services sector - especially in accounting, where there is a surge in hiring. NLB sees a 20-25% drop in IT employee additions in the first half of the current financial year, while TeamLease Digital expects a 40% decrease for the entire year. Nasscom declined comment on the hiring slowdown. That has "surely left applicants concerned about future prospects", said staffing firm Xpheno's co-founder Kamal Karanth, who highlighted how current hiring activity was "under a third of what was recorded in the buoyant peak". Pai highlighted sectors such as financial services, consumer goods, specialised manufacturing, medicine, law, chartered accounting and other services as more viable options.
Persons: Rohit Azad, Azad, Rishad Premji, Sakshi Gupta, Sachin Alug, NLB, Nilanjan Roy, Nasscom, Gautam, Xpheno's, Kamal Karanth, LTIMindtree, Karanth, Siana, Siddharth Pai, Pai, Dhanya Skariachan, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: New, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Wipro, HDFC, Apple, Citigroup, American Express, Europe's Credit Suisse, UBS, NLB Services, TeamLease, IT, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Reuters Graphics, Sethuraman, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Punjab
Ahead of an election on May 21, a cost-of-living crisis that is eroding earnings is foremost in voters' minds. For Klaoudatou it means voting for anyone but the incumbent conservative New Democracy or the opposition leftist Syriza. Reuters GraphicsThree international bailouts saved Greece from toppling out of the euro zone during a decade-long debt crisis that peaked in 2015. "Εven during the crisis - and this is the joke - I didn't think so much before spending a single extra euro," Klaoudatou told Reuters. Reuters GraphicsPAYCHECK BARELY GETS TO PAYCHECKOne in two Greek households could barely get by on their monthly income last year.
Voyager 2’s priceless data is captured and returned to Earth through its five science instruments, while Voyager 1 still has four operational instruments after one failed earlier in the mission. Both Voyager probes rely on radioisotope thermoelectric generators. Over time, the Voyager team has commanded the probes to turn off instrument heaters and other nonessential systems. The Voyager proof test model, seen here in 1976, has a platform showcasing several of the science instruments. “Picture it as an ocean of space with waves and turbulence and activity going on, and the Voyager instruments can measure what’s happening,” Spilker said.
Morning Bid: Deep breaths as banks calm, but only a bit
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The Federal Reserve is considering tougher rules and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed suddenly last week. Strengthened rules on banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion range could ape those for larger more systemic banks and involve stringent capital and liquidity requirements or beefed up annual "stress tests". Even though reports abounded of depositor flight from the smaller weaker banks to the larger financial firms, stock prices in the sector at large caught a breath. The VIX equity volatility gauge (.VIX) hugged Tuesday's close at 23. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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