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☆ Traders buying calls for a quick pop in this medical device name rather than owning shares outright
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Despite a slight decline in the S & P 500 since Thursday's close, the financial sector is essentially unchanged as I write this. Risk premiums, as implied by options prices on Financial Select SPDR (XLF) vs. SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , have also narrowed. Put prices on the S & P 500 are slightly higher and put prices in financials are slightly lower. The most active contract, the October $285 calls, traded 445 contracts (44,500 shares worth) at an average price of $6.26/contract. DISCLOSURES: (Owns ISRG calls) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: Let's, Banks, financials, SPDR, we've, Wednesday's outperformance Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Trust, JPMorgan Locations: financials

☆ A low-cost way to protect against an S&P 500 drawdown as risks escalate
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The Cboe Volatility Index , commonly referred to simply as "the VIX", is an index derived from 30-day S & P 500 index options prices. Put simply, the VIX represents the options market's expectations for S & P 500 volatility over the next 30 days. Sometimes referred to as a "fear index", Friday's VIX Index closing level of 19.32 is only slightly below the 6-month high of 20.09 seen on May 4th. Financials significantly outperformed, finishing Friday up 0.2% while the S & P overall fell by 0.5%. Options traders and strategists are often asked, "Is there a way to use options to hedge my portfolio?".

Persons: Gerald Ford, Dwight Eisenhower, Ike, Ray Dalio, Wells, Financials, doesn't Organizations: Investors, Federal, University of Michigan, West Bank, IDF, Bridgewater Associates, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Trader, Trust Locations: Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iran, Europe, Wells Fargo

☆ Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Valuations for U.S technology stocks may be too high given the current macroeconomic backdrop and spike in rates, according to the Bank of England. "Given the impact of higher interest rates, and uncertainties associated with inflation and growth, some risky asset valuations appear to be stretched," the BoE's financial policy committee said Tuesday. "Stretched risky asset valuations increase the likelihood of a greater correction in prices if downside risks to growth materialise." To be sure, this isn't the first time that a central bank has warned of valuations over the years, but as a general rule, central bankers would rather not offer an opinion on any specific market price.

Persons: BoE, premia, Ben Bernanke, Lehman, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan's, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: Bank of England, Microsoft, Nvidia, Lehman Brothers Locations: City, London, Britain, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: 'Remarkable' US markets surf crosscurrents
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Stock futures are higher once again ahead of the bell today. As cash Treasury markets returned from Monday's Columbus Day holiday to a week of heavy long-term debt auctions, they were also greeted with rekindled optimism about the Federal Reserve's policy rate trajectory. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are set to kick off Tuesday's U.S. trading day at some 4.65% - almost a quarter of a percentage point below the peak set just after Friday's blowout September jobs report. Elsewhere, PepsiCo (PEP.O) edged 0.8% higher ahead of the beverage maker's third-quarter results and Unity (U.N) jumped 6.4% after the video-game software maker said its CEO John Riccitiello would retire.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, Logan, Philip Jefferson chimed, John Riccitiello, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Columbus, Federal, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Fund, HK, Bloomberg, Alibaba, Baidu, PepsiCo, Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Atlanta Fed, PepsiCo NFIB Consumer, Reuters Messaging, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Marrakesh, China, Beijing, Minneapolis, San

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?

Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. The tentative bond bid and shifting interest rate picture stopped the rot in stock markets too, with Wall St stocks rallying on Wednesday and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) staging its biggest daily gain since August. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Lamb Weston, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Wall, Metro Bank, U.S, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Brands, Constellation Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, York

☆ Morning Bid: Bond steamroller flattens all
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. That's all on top of the ongoing rethink of the Fed's long-term rate horizon and increasingly high-pressure economy. Hit from all sides, the Treasury market is simply in ructions - catalysed perhaps by technical, speculative and positioning factors too. Ten-year yields hit a whopping 4.88% early on Wednesday - an increase of 80 basis points in little over a month. And implied volatility in the bond market (.MOVE) hit its highest since May.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, St, Louis Fed, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Mehmet Simsek, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Congress, riven, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Treasury, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, P Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Turkish, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Washington, Asia, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Kansas, London

☆ Instant View: World's biggest bond markets hit by wave of selling, then bounce
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, ”, ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. A near-miss on a debt ceiling showdown in the Spring led to the loss of another Triple-A sovereign credit rating. A fiscal adjustment akin to the one enacted in 1993 would be enough to do that again over 5 years. "However, this looks unlikely anytime soon given congressional gridlock, a lack of political attention to deficit reduction and the upcoming 2024 election," it concluded. On current poll readings at least, next year's election will do nothing to end the fiscal war.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, it's, Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Erik Nielsen, what's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Trump, Biden, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, William Maclean Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Presidential, AAA, Democrat, Biden, Trump, Congress, Ukraine, Treasury, Republican, Reuters, GRIDLOCK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, loggerheads, Russia, Ukraine, United States

☆ Bank of Israel says currency intervention will only be necessary 'if we see market failures'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

This picture taken on August 23, 2022 shows a view of the exterior of the headquarters of the Bank of Israel, the country's central bank, in Kiryat Ben-Gurion in Jerusalem. Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron said Tuesday that currency intervention to support the weaker shekel will only be necessary in the event of market failures. "The shekel has had a long relationship with the financial markets abroad, it has been tied to that. "We believe that we should let the market try to figure out that risk premia," he added, noting that markets appear to have "functioned well" in recent months despite the increased volatility. "However, if there will be market failures, which we have not seen thus far or very significant movements that really impede on inflation, then we have the tools to deal with that."

Persons: Gurion, Amir Yaron, Yaron, CNBC's Dan Murphy Organizations: Bank of Israel, Jerusalem . Bank of Israel, U.S Locations: Kiryat Ben, Jerusalem ., Israel

Specifically, she outlined puzzlement at why the inflation-adjusted risk-free rates priced by markets - real Overnight Index Swap yields from one to 10 years - had subsided again since the last ECB rate hike in July - back to where they were in February when ECB policy rates were just 2.5%. Long-term real yields from benchmark German government bond markets are positive again this year for the first time in almost a decade. But they have fallen almost 20bp from just before the last ECB rate hike to just above 0.1% now. Minutes released today from the last ECB meeting suggest the council is still undecided about its next step this month, but many market analysts see the tension building. ECB chart from Isabel Schnabel speech on rising market inflation premiaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, It's, Carsten Brzeski, Josie Kao Organizations: Central Bank, disinflation, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ING, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, U.S

"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The simplest conclusion is the Fed will not be able to ease again in anything like the way many had assumed or still think. This will lift the 'term premium' embedded in long-term bond yields, which has been so subdued since Fed balance sheet expansion met the crash of 2008, even if the Fed is done tightening policy rates, he said. Fed policy is more neutral than restrictive "if you believe we've returned to a pre-2008 world", he said, and that limits the scope for rate cuts in future. Writing by Mike Dolan; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, handwringing, Anujeet, we've, Amanda Lynam, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Treasury, U.S, AAA, Atlanta, Deutsche Bank, Vanguard, Federal Reserve, Brandywine Global, BlackRock, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ US loss of AAA badge a reminder of 'regime shift' for government debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"I think it really brings home that shift being a regime shift rather than a cyclical one," Katimbo-Mugwanya said. S&P said the assumption that governments would prioritise servicing debt over spending promises had rarely been tested at such high debt levels. For now, despite the steepest increases in borrowing costs in decades, investors still see little risk in holding governments' longer-term debt. POLICY WATCHGreater focus on longer-term risks should bring scrutiny of government policies. Still, with higher debt an economic reality, few governments are left with the coveted AAA rating.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Fitch, David Katimbo, Mugwanya, Bill Ackman, Moritz Kraemer, Fichan, Kraemer, Kshitij Sinha, Martin Lenz, LBBW's Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Davide Barbuscia, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, AAA, Financial, Fitch, EdenTree Investment Management, P Global, LBBW, European Union, European Commission, European Central Bank, Syz, New York Fed, Life Asset, Union Investment, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Japan

But management of central bank balance sheets could help - even if central bankers are keen to publicly disassociate the process from monetary policy goals per se. But the U.S. central bank can be more comfortable nearing peak rates with inflation much closer to target than Europe's central banks - where future trade-offs may be more tempting. G3 central bank balance sheetsFed share of Treasury marketReuters GraphicsBACKGROUND NOISE? Ramsden laced his comments with caution about not confusing the run-down of the BoE's "asset purchase facility" with its central policy task. And they reckoned an increase in the volume of QT should theoretically lead to higher term premia in euro bond markets.

Persons: Dave Ramsden, BoE, Ramsden, there's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S

U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.

Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe

☆ Global markets in H1: Banks vs the machines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Linking it all has been the relentless rise in interest rates, which was exactly what battered markets in 2022. But just that this time has been different due to an unshakeable view that the end of the cycle is near. A 12%, or $6 trillion, rally in value of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), (.FTAWORLDSR) although it has been ominously top heavy. Thanks largely to ChatGPT, the AI boom has seen the 'Big Tech' giants enjoy a combined surge of 70%. There have also been around a total of 90 interest rate hikes this year by central banks globally versus just 17 cuts.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Lehman, Trevor Greetham, Gold, Viktor Szabo, Tayyip Erdogan's, haven't, bitcoin, Binance, Milla Savova, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Wilson, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nikkei, LONDON, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Meta, Nvidia, Royal London Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan's, Silicon Valley Bank, behemoth, UBS, Treasury, Wall, BlackRock, Commodities, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, El Salvador, Sri, Zambia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Argentina, Japan, Egypt, Nigeria, London

☆ Wall Street titans including David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott sound off on AI: What they told us about the disruptive technology — from how it will lead to 'permanent displacement' of jobs, to why it's
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, –, capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan

☆ ECB's de Guindos warns financial markets are vulnerable to a sharp sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Financial markets could face a sharp downturn in the event of any further shocks to the global economy, European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos told CNBC on Wednesday. Earlier on Wednesday, the ECB published its May Financial Stability Review, saying that the euro area's stability outlook remained fragile in the aftermath of recent turmoil in the banking sector, which saw the failure of several U.S. regional banks and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. Global stock markets made a robust start to 2023, given falling energy prices, China's reopening and the surprising resilience of the euro zone economy — driving equity valuations back above historical averages, the ECB highlighted. This reversed abruptly in late February and March as a hawkish tone from central banks and unexpected stress in the banking sector roiled investors around the world. De Guindos said current market positioning rendered stocks vulnerable to any further macro surprises.

Persons: Luis de Guindos, De Guindos, de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Credit Suisse, UBS

☆ Asiana Airlines will stop selling exit row seats on some of its Airbus A321 jets after a man opened an emergency door during flight
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Taylor Rains | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

South Korean carrier Asiana Airlines has stopped selling certain exit row seats on its A321-200 planes. Window exit row seats 26A and 31A will no longer be bookable, according to Asiana. The carrier said the move was out of precaution after a passenger opened a door during landing on Friday. South Korean carrier Asiana Airlines said it will no longer sell certain exit row seats on all of its Airbus A321-200 jets after a passenger opened an emergency door in flight, Al Jazeera reported. On both planes, certain exit row window seats on the left-hand side of the cabin will no longer be bookable.

It would see the IMF and other MDBs "cut the excessive macro-risk premia on developing countries with $100 billion per year of foreign exchange guarantees", for financing in more volatile domestic currencies rather than the dollar or euro. A report by the World Bank and other big multilateral lenders said they gave $51 billion in 2021 alongside $13 billion from private finance. Outlines of the proposals have been sent to the key groups preparing the discussions over the last couple of weeks. "This is a call to arms" the source said, referring to the document and its intention to galvanise more concrete action from the IMF and multilateral lenders. The proposals put forward in the April document, which also include redistributing other IMF money, are likely to form a key part of the negotiating position of developing countries at the next round of annual climate talks in Dubai later this year.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 21 (Reuters) - Even though it may surprise some that it's positive at all, the risk premium on equity over bonds has hit historic lows - a key driver of the recent dash for fixed income. The so-called equity risk premium (ERP), the extra return investors can expect for holding stocks over risk-free government bonds, is hovering around its lowest level since before the Great Financial Crisis. The S&P 500 earnings yield is calculated dividing the latest or forecast 12-month earnings per share by the market's current level. The ERP is then arrived at by subtracting a benchmark bond yield, say 10-year, from the equity market earnings yield. "The earnings yield is not what it used to be but it is still attractive relative to other opportunities," Jaffee said.

☆ Analysis: Market turmoil is doing central bankers' jobs for them
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reckons market turmoil may do some of the ECB's tightening for it if it dampens demand and inflation. Financial conditions reflect the availability of funding in an economy, so they dictate spending, saving and investment plans of businesses and households. Central banks have been trying to tighten them by raising rates to slow rising prices. Signs of tightening financial conditions were plentiful. "Central banks no longer have a good idea about the true tightness of monetary policy," he said.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

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