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☆ A.I. is changing national security systems. Here's what's ahead for defense stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Vladimir Putin said in 2017 that whoever becomes the leader in artificial intelligence "will be the ruler of the world." The department examined AI technology in defense through two pathways: The first was "autonomy at rest," which describes decision-making support software. Critically, artificial intelligence in defense will help automate more dangerous tasks while also reducing the risk of human casualties. "As of now, there is not the development of artificial intelligence technology in regards to making life-or-death choices. Boeing announced earlier in 2023 that it would partner with defense technology company Shield AI to expand AI pilot offerings for its military clients.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Bob Work, Jonathan Sakraida, Lockheed Martin, Sakraida, Northrop, Booz Allen Hamilton Organizations: Pentagon, Deutsche Bank, Department of Defense, Center, New, New American Security, U.S, Defense, CFRA Research, U.S . Army, Lockheed, Dynamics, Department of, Carnegie Endowment, International, IBM, Palantir Technologies, Cisco, BAE Systems, Research Projects Agency, Northrop Grumman, Booz, Boeing, Air Force Locations: New American, There's, China, U.S, United Kingdom

☆ Wall St. Pessimists Are Getting Used to Being Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Beaten as they might be by the stock market’s rally, worriers on Wall Street still question how long it can last. After starting the year with dour warnings about the economy, many investors and analysts have changed their minds. Marquee earnings from some large tech companies, like Meta and Alphabet, helped drive stock prices higher. Consumer-facing companies like Coca-Cola and Unilever that are dependent on households continuing to spend also posted bumper financial results. The benchmark sits roughly 5 percent away from the record it reached in January 2022.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Consumer, Cola, Unilever, Federal Reserve

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar flexes into Fed week, calm returns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Another unexpectedly tight weekly reading from the U.S. labour market sowed some lingering doubts that we're on the cusp of 'peak Fed' just yet. The tech wobble saw the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recoil 2% in its biggest drop since March. A quieter earnings schedule is topped by American Express - but nearly all the other banks have been impressive over the past week. Pessimists think the Fed is not done tightening yet and any further rate hikes after next week will just hasten a downturn in 2024. That has sobered up the Treasury market a touch after a couple of weeks of disinflation relief.

Persons: Mike Dolan, jockeying, we're, Dow Jones industrials, Johnson, Pessimists, Huntington Bancshares, Janet Yellen, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Big Tech, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, American Express, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Comerica, Regions, Roper Technologies, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Huntington, Schlumberger, Canada, Hanoi

Voters appear to be persuadable on some of those issues, the poll showed, while they are finding fault with Republicans for their efforts to restrict abortion. Both he and Trump supported the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last year to end the nationwide right to abortion. Republicans were solidly against teaching gender issues in public schools, with 76% opposed, 20% in favor and the rest unsure. Independents were less decided, with 49% against teaching gender issues, 27% in support and 24% unsure. Seventy percent described teaching of gender issues in schools that way and 61% saw importance in the issue of transgender athletes in children's sports.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Biden, Jacob Rubashkin, DeSantis, Trump, Rubashkin, Jason Lange, James Oliphant, Scott Malone, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Reuters, Republicans, Biden, Florida, Elections, Trump, Democratic National Committee, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington, Florida, U.S .

☆ Japan companies less confident about business conditions - Reuters Tankan
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Last month saw Asian factory activity drop, hurt by sluggish demand from China in particular. The service-sector index fared much better, with the non-manufacturers index slipping just one point to +23, though it was a second straight month of decline. Retailers and real estate firms logged big jumps in confidence but sentiment at information and communications companies - while still robust - dropped somewhat. The Reuters poll, conducted July 5-14, found corporate confidence was expected to rebound over the coming three months, with manufacturers' sentiment seen at +7 and service sector sentiment seen at +25. The Reuters Tankan indexes, which can serve as leading indicators for the Bank of Japan tankan surveys, are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones.

Persons: Tetsushi Kajimoto, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Jan Service, Reuters, Industries, Bank of, pessimists, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, China, Ukraine, Bank of Japan

But last week, Chinese state media slammed Goldman Sachs after the Wall Street firm recommended selling shares in local banks because of their exposure to risks in the domestic economy. Group of 20 central bankers and finance ministers are meeting this week in India, with this data adding to their worries about the state of the global economy. Some pessimists say the Chinese economy has peaked and a significant slowdown is coming. But, Mr. Pettis added, international investors need to look at China differently than they once did. “When China was growing at double-digit rates, even poor parts of the economy were growing,” he said.

Persons: ” George Magnus, DealBook, Xi, Goldman Sachs, Covid, Michael Pettis, Pettis, ”, “ Organizations: Oxford University’s China Center, UBS, West, Street, Peking University Locations: China, Beijing, India, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Kyiv

☆ Slow pace of Biden’s reelection campaign feeds Democrats’ 2024 anxiety
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Edward-Isaac Dovere | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

It’s a persistent sense that the inner circle of advisers to the president and several of the very few aides who have been hired for his reelection campaign dismiss as absurd. “They are so underestimated, and they keep getting it right,” said Jim Messina, former president Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign manager, who has been one of the people privately advising Biden’s team to ramp up gradually. “We will grow and ramp up alongside the Biden campaign, probably in late fall or early next year,” Barnes said. “The most important power of incumbency is taking time to plan and build your campaign while your challenger is busy with a primary,” a Democratic campaign veteran said. “You can raise more now, but President Biden is raising less,” a veteran Democratic fundraiser on the West Coast said.

Persons: –, Joe Biden won’t, Biden, “, ”, Jim Messina, Barack Obama’s, Obama, aren’t, Donald Trump, ‘, “ I’m, Trump’s, David Axelrod, “ Trump, ” Axelrod, Biden’s, Kevin Munoz, Harris, Roe, Wade, Mitt Romney, Trump, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Messina, ” Messina, Roy Cooper, you’re, ” Cooper, Kamala Harris, Lavora Barnes, Julie Chávez Rodriguez, Barnes, ” Barnes, ’ ”, Axelrod, who’s, – “ it’s, Larry Cohen, Bernie Sanders, Obama’s –, Lis Smith Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Trump, GOP, Republicans, MAGA Republicans, Biden, Democratic National Committee, Republican, America, White, North Carolina Gov, ” Michigan Democratic Party, Communications Workers of America, Obama, Biden pessimists Locations: America, Wilmington, Capitol Hill, Washington, Chicago, stoke

☆ Wall Street Recession: Stock Market Crash Predictions Are Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street analysts and economists have always had a tendency to fall in love with their forecasts. This stubbornness helps explain why Wall Street is having an exceptionally hard time letting go of the idea that a recession is just around the corner. Despite the year-plus in which analysts have been arguing that a recession is imminent, none of the arguments behind the predictions stand up to scrutiny. Bear growlsOver the past year, Wall Street pessimists' reasons for an approaching recession have shifted. The drag from the US housing market is fading.

Persons: doomsayers, it's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Street, Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro

☆ Forecasts show U.S. earnings decline in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to fall 5.6% in the second quarter from a year ago, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Fourth-quarter 2022 earnings for S&P 500 companies declined 3.2%, so a first-quarter profit fall would have been a second straight quarterly decline, which some strategists call an earnings recession. Package delivery firm FedEx (FDX.N) this week posted disappointing quarterly earnings and said waning global demand is pressuring its profit margins. "S&P 500 EPS estimates and stock prices will need to reset lower." The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down about 1% this week, but remains up more than 13% for the year to date.

Persons: COVID, Jerome Powell, Oliver Pursche, Olive, Morgan Stanley, Nick Raich, Caroline Valetkevitch, Alden Bentley, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Reserve, Bank of England, Wealthspire Advisors, Walmart Inc, FedEx, Olive Garden, Darden, Nike, Thomson Locations: Refinitiv, Washington, U.S, Westport , Connecticut

Recessions haven't always resulted in declining stock markets, and good opportunities can be found amid them. Sectors for recession naysayersThe best sectors for recession disbelievers are the most economically sensitive ones: industrials, materials and financials. Well-positioned companies with good growth prospects currently include: Corteva, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp., PPG Industries and Sherwin-Williams. Currently buyable names include: Campbell Soup Co., General Mills, The Hershey Co., Kellogg's, Kimberly-Clark Corp., Kroger, Procter & Gamble and Walmart. Sector names with reasonable risk levels and good growth prospects include: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc., Veeva Systems Inc., IQVIA Holdings Inc., Cigna Group and Zoetis Inc.

Persons: Sherwin, Williams, Mayur, Martin Marietta, JPMorgan Chase, Rowe Price, Willis Towers Watson, Campbell, General Mills, Clark, Willie B, Thomas, Digitalvision Organizations: Westend61, University of Michigan Consumer, Investors, Westinghouse Air Brake Co, Cummins Inc, CSX, Emerson Electric, Otis Worldwide, Carrier, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Illinois Tool, Lockheed Martin Corp, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp, PPG Industries, XLF, JPMorgan, Rowe Price Group Inc, American International Group, Allstate, The, McLennan, Sectors, Co, Hershey Co, Clark Corp, Kroger, Procter, Gamble, Walmart, Getty Images Health, iShares U.S, Medical Devices, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc, Veeva Systems Inc, IQVIA Holdings Inc, Cigna, Zoetis Inc Locations: American, The Hartford, Marsh, Kimberly

☆ Japan big manufacturers' sentiment positive for 3rd consecutive month -Reuters tankan
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The monthly poll suggested there would be a steady recovery in business sentiment in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) closely watched tankan quarterly survey due next on July 3. The Reuters poll found manufacturers' mood was expected to rise over the coming three months, and service-sector morale would hover above +20. The manufacturers' index was up 11 points compared with three months ago. The service-sector index slipped one point from May to +24 in June, led by information/communications and transport/utilities. Compared with three months ago, the service-sector index was up three points.

Persons: Tetsushi Kajimoto, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Reuters tankan Manufacturers, Reuters, Bank of Japan's, optimists, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Ukraine, Japan, China

☆ Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a 'Soft Landing'? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +22 min

Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.

☆ Opinion | Legalizing Marijuana Is a Big Mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

But Lehman explains in detail why the second-order effects of marijuana legalization have mostly vindicated the pessimists and skeptics. But Lehman argues that there is also no good evidence so far that legalization reduces racially discriminatory patterns of policing and arrests. Most casual pot smokers won’t have this experience, but the legalization era has seen a dramatic increase the number of non-casual users. Because of all the years of prohibition, a mature and supple illegal marketplace already exists, ready to undercut whatever prices the legal market charges. So to make the legal marketplace successful and amenable to regulation you would probably need much more enforcement against the illegal marketplace — which is difficult and expensive and, again, obviously uncool, in conflict with the good-vibrations spirit of the legalizers.

☆ Australian consumer mood bleak in May after surprise rate hike, budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 16 (Reuters) - A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell in May after a surprise hike in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a "mildly disappointing" federal budget clouded the outlook for family finances and the economy. But Evans expects the RBA to leave rates on hold in June as it awaits more data on inflation and the economy. Some consumers may have had "unrealistic expectations" going into the budget with many expecting more support, Evans said. Higher living costs meant consumers were holding off on buying a major household item, with the index dipping 0.4%. Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Opinion | Which Inflation Measures Matter?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Of course, if you have been following this discussion, you have indeed heard this before. Clarity in the inflation discussion has been very hard to come by, even if you ignore the people filling my inbox with declarations that the dollar is doomed and that hyperinflation is just around the corner. I’ve compared debates among economists over each new trove of inflation data to ancient Roman priests seeking auguries in the entrails of sacrificed animals, a remark that, oddly, doesn’t seem to have won me many friends among my colleagues. It’s also disturbing that many economists always seem to come down on the same side of these debates: Optimists are always optimistic, pessimists always pessimistic. So I thought I’d devote today’s newsletter to a probably doomed attempt to bring some clarity to this discussion.

☆ Big Japanese manufacturers remain gloomy as external demand ebbs - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The survey confirmed the economy is on track for a post-coronavirus recovery backed by service-sector firms, although manufacturers are affected by a slowdown in global demand," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. The Reuters Tankan, which closely tracks the Bank of Japan's (BOA) quarterly key tankan survey, canvassed 493 big non-financial firms. The sentiment index for big manufacturers in the Reuters Tankan survey stood at minus 3, unchanged from the previous month and posting a fourth straight month of negative readings, according to the survey. The Reuters Tankan manufacturers index is expected to rebound to plus 7 over the next three months. The large service-sector firms' index edged up to plus 24 in April from plus 21 seen in the previous month, hitting the highest level since December.

☆ Pessimism persists at big Japanese manufacturers amid global slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Reuters Tankan, designed to closely track the Bank of Japan's key quarterly tankan survey, suggested the central bank's survey due next April 3 will likely show deterioration in business confidence at big manufacturers. The sentiment index for big manufacturers stood at minus 3, slightly up from minus 5 seen in the previous month, according to the survey conducted March 8-17. Compared with three months ago, the manufacturers' index was down 11 points, suggesting worsening of sentiment in the BOJ tankan's headline big manufacturers index. The Reuters Tankan index is expected to rebound to plus 10 over the next three months. The large service-sector firms' index rebounded to plus 21 in March from plus 17 seen in the previous month.

☆ We're about to find out whether AI might replace those 200,000 laid-off tech workers as Silicon Valley prioritizes efficiency
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As companies like Meta and Twitter get leaner, AI could replace those engineers. A consistent research finding is that AI tools make humans more efficient. "One reason that large firms struggle with new tech like AI: managers are squeamish about risk," Mollick tweeted. The best pro-human case is that workers are kept on and given access to AI tools like ChatGPT. It may be time for tech workers to update their favorite smug adage: Learn to code.

☆ Australia consumer mood stuck in the doldrums in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 14 (Reuters) - Australian consumer sentiment stayed stuck at historically depressed levels in March amid concerns over inflation and interest rates, a survey showed on Tuesday, with the appetite for buying big-ticket items especially weak. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment was unchanged in March, following a dive of 6.9% the month before. "Index reads below 80 are rare, back-to-back reads even rarer," noted Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "Both the COVID shock and the Global Financial Crisis saw only one month of sentiment at these levels." The index of the economic outlook for the next 12 months dropped 2.3%, though the outlook for the next five years did bounce 5.6%.

☆ Here are 6 tips to navigate this year's stock market, according to the CIO of a wealth management firm for high-net-worth individuals
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

He also suggests having some exposure to small-cap stocks .. Non-US equities, especially in emerging markets, could outperform in a multi-year cycle. As for the fixed-income market, Bharath says it will continue to yield positive returns, even though they may not be massive. Second, an investor's portfolio should return to an equal balance between value and growth stocks this year. However, the same thesis for growth stocks can be applied to small-cap stocks. This is why investors that dollar cost average every month, such as through a 401(k), are able to get close to market returns, he added.

☆ Wall Street closes green as GDP data eases recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] People stand by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 26, 2023. Fourth-quarter earnings season has hit full stride, with more than one fourth of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Analysts now see aggregate fourth quarter earnings falling 2.7%, worse than the 1.6% year-on-year decline seen on Jan. 1, but an improvement over the 3% annual decline as of Wednesday, per Refinitiv. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, all but consumer staples (.SPLRCS) advanced. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 111 new highs and 32 new lows.

☆ Premarket stocks: How Wall Street reacts to the GDP data will be telling
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Wall Street analysts are holding their breath and crossing their fingers this morning as they await gross domestic product numbers for the final quarter of 2022. But that could all change if a recession looms into view and the US debt ceiling standoff drags on. “That is the worry: That you get turmoil in financial markets, a big tightening in financial conditions and that adds to downward pressure on economic activity,” he said. It’s not our expectation.”The United States hit the debt ceiling last week, forcing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to make accounting maneuvers to avoid breaching that $31 trillion borrowing limit. They argue it unfairly targets the fast-food industry and will increase prices and force businesses to lay off workers.

☆ Bill Gates is ‘very optimistic’ about the future: ‘Better to be born 20 years from now...than any time in the past’
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Tom Huddleston Jr. | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bill Gates spends a lot of his time sounding the alarm over existential global threats, like climate change and future pandemics. Yet the billionaire Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist says he's still "very optimistic" about humanity's future on Earth. Even with challenges facing current and future generations, Gates says anyone born in the next few decades will be better off than people born at any previous point in history. Gates asked, noting that the average lifespan for human beings has vastly improved over the past three centuries. "So, the scope of human innovation over time ... is a phenomenal story."

☆ JPMorgan says this biotech stock could rally 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan has moved off the sidelines on Allogene Therapeutics , a clinical-stage immuno-oncology company the bank believes could see positive catalysts. Analyst Brian Cheng upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral. Cheng also cut his price target nearly in half to $11 from $20, but the new forecast implies the stock will gain 60.3% over the next year. The CD19 franchise is centered around studies for relapsed or refractory non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The analyst noted that one concern about the company is the state of its BCMA franchise, which is focused on treatments for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma.

☆ Yes, You Can Train Yourself to Be a Positive Person
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Rachel Feintzeig | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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