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☆ Is it time to worry about stagflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —For the past two years, economists have been worrying about the risks of high inflation rates. But far less attention has been given to inflation’s sibling: stagflation. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and a slowing economy. The current state of stagflation: Last year, then-World Bank President David Malpass warned that stagflation risks were high because of supply chain disruptions stemming from lockdowns in China and bans on Russian oil. What’s happening now: The risk of stagflation varies significantly across different regions of the globe.

Persons: Stagflation, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, ”, Lan Ha, stagflation, Andrew Kenningham, “, That’s, ” Kenningham, ” Ha, Ha, Parija Kavilanz, don’t, Dallin Hatch, Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Matt Egan, It’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, World Bank, Euromonitor, Capital Economics, Bank of England’s, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Trump Locations: Israel, lockdowns, China, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia

☆ Moderate US economic growth expected in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 1.8% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.0% pace in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, likely remained a pillar of support, although the pace of growth slowed from the second quarter's robust 4.2% rate. Further contribution to GDP growth was expected from government spending. Inventory investment is a wild card, though most economists are penciling in a contribution to GDP growth of at least five tenths of a percentage point. Business sharply reduced inventory accumulation in the January-March quarter in anticipation of weaker domestic demand, slicing 2.14 percentage points off GDP growth that period.

Persons: Dean Maki, they're, Mike Skordeles, Joe Biden's, Sean Snaith, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Point72, Management, Labor Department, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Fed, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, Atlanta, United States, London

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoJuly 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The one percentage point fall in June headline consumer price inflation to 3.0% strengthened hopes that the U.S. economy is heading for a 'soft landing', boosting risk appetite and, more importantly for emerging markets, slamming the dollar. The yen has risen five days in a row, its longest winning streak against the dollar since November. That would be the biggest fall in exports since January - economists at SocGen are penciling in a 15.7% crash. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- South Korea interest rate decision- China trade (June)- Thailand parliament elects new prime ministerBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, BOK, Josie Kao Organizations: Shanghai Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Asia FX, South Korean, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, China, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Zealand, SocGen, Korea, Thailand

☆ Market surveys show Wall Street expected less hawkish Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The primary dealer survey was released on Thursday by the New York Fed and was joined by the survey of market participants, most of whom are large money managers. Respondents to that poll were also caught off guard by the Fed outlook and had projected the same Fed stopping point as the primary dealers. The dealer and market surveys also offered projections about the size of the Fed’s reverse repo facility. Mainly used by money funds, this tool finally saw inflows fall below $2 trillion per day last month, and they are widely expected to fall further as private market rates become more attractive and the Treasury ramps up issuance. Primary dealers reckon the daily reverse repo inflow will hit $1.119 trillion by the fourth quarter of 2024.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Logan, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Fed, Federal, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Dealers, Dallas Fed, Columbia University, Treasury, Thomson

☆ Jerome Powell says the Fed is still 'very far' on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House, central bank nominees are talking to the Senate, and the Washington Wizards traded away their star hooper. Powell spoke before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday following 10 consecutive interest rate hikes and one rate "skip" that the Fed chief made sure to clarify wasn't a "pause." "Given how far we've come, it may make sense to move rates higher but to do so at a more moderate pace," Powell said Wednesday. So far, the economy has been more resilient than expected, even as the fed funds rate hovers in the 5% to 5.25% range. US stock futures fall early Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said more rate hikes are likely ahead.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jerome Powell, hooper, Anna Moneymaker, Powell, that's, Patrick McHenry, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, there's, Julia La Roche, Ed Yardeni, isn't, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Apple isn't, Read, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Hallam Bullock, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Senate, Washington Wizards, Financial Services, Fed, Nvidia, Apple, Business, Federal, Accenture, Volex, Bank of America, . Locations: New York, Los Angeles, London

☆ Still-hawkish Fed pauses rate tightening after 10 straight hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

While the market expected a hawkish pause, this is even a little bit more hawkish than market participants anticipated and that’s why you’re having a negative reaction in risk assets. So, it does suggest that the Fed is looking to tighten policy further, but the big question is can the Fed credibly commit to two more rate hikes if they just decided to actually hold rates steady. And what is the threshold for further rate hikes? “GEORGE YOUNG, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, VILLERE & CO, NEW ORLEANS"This a pregnant pause, meaning that they said they're going to pause hikes today but they're going to increase later. ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES, ST LOUIS"We're seeing a more hawkish pause.

Persons: QUINCY KROSBY, Powell, He’s, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” ANDRZEJ SKIBA, ” GENNADIY GOLDBERG, they’ve, ” ELLEN HAZEN, Logan, Waller, “ GEORGE, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, They've, MICHAEL BROWN, hawkishly, WHITNEY WATSON, GOLDMAN, “, STOVALL, ” PAUL NOLTE, MICHAEL JAMES Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, RBC, CPI, PPI, Powell &, Cleveland Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHARLOTTE, NC, WISCONSIN, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, ORLEANS, GOLDMAN SACHS, Manheim, ALLENTOWN, CHICAGO

☆ May Inflation Report Price Increases Are Expected to Ease Again
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Tuesday’s inflation report, which covers May, will offer the latest evidence on how well the fight against inflation is working. The annual inflation rate probably cooled last month, easing to 4.1 percent from 4.9 percent in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would leave the inflation rate at less than half of last summer’s 9 percent peak. Monthly core inflation is expected to remain at 0.4 percent, a pace that economists at JPMorgan called “uncomfortably high” in a note previewing the release. inflation figures — set for release on June 30 — and offer a more timely snapshot of inflation trends, which is what makes the report so important.

Persons: “ Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Barclays

April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as employment growth moderated somewhat and price increases appeared to slow, according to a Federal Reserve report published on Wednesday. Several Fed districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity, the report showed. In the San Francisco Fed district, where failed Silicon Valley Bank was located, "lending activity fell significantly in recent weeks amid higher interest rates and elevated uncertainty in the banking sector," the report said. "Banking contacts reported some movement in deposits but little change in credit availability following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank," the Chicago Fed said. The Fed report noted that inflation pressures had moderated but remained widespread.

☆ Brace for the US economy to crash-land as the banking turmoil creates a credit crunch, Allianz says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is going to crash-land into a recession in the second half of 2023, according to Allianz. "Rapidly tightening credit conditions, exacerbated by the banking crisis" will fuel the downturn, Allianz said. Allianz is expecting the turmoil that's rocked the US's regional banks in recent weeks to fuel a credit crunch. The turmoil could leave banks more risk-averse and result in a pullback in lending, according to Allianz. "While credit growth has still held up, a significant decline in bank lending seems inevitable amid the collapse of monetary aggregates."

☆ Interest rate decision: What to expect from the Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Among the choices, the Fed could continue its aggressive rate-hike campaign to cool inflation that is running at triple the central bank’s target of 2%. Warren — already a critic of the Fed’s inflation fight — leveled further blistering criticism of the Republican Fed chief. In addition to achieving price stability and financial stability, the Fed’s broader mandate includes supervision of individual financial institutions, Leer says, and “that’s where the failure lies. “The Fed needs to secure both price stability and financial stability, something that it has failed to so recently,” he told CNN. And this Fed chief inherited an unprecedented economy.

☆ GameStop surge ignores basic rule of value
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - GameStop (GME.N) investors sent the company’s shares up 40% on Wednesday morning after fourth-quarter results showed it had swung to a net profit. That suggests the company that counts Chewy Founder Ryan Cohen as its chair has put some of its meme-fueled fundraising to use. Unfortunately, investors have forgotten that with such a surge, GameStop will have to grow into a new valuation. The chain reported net profit of $48 million compared with a loss of $148 million in the same quarter a year ago. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Today’s good economic news could spell trouble for Americans down the road
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

From the labor market to consumer spending to inflation, key readings on the economy have been running hot. Although that might sound like good news for Main Street, it’s a problem for the Federal Reserve. After a spate of stronger-than-expected economic data, buckle up for an intense few weeks of Fed guessing, especially surrounding the tight labor market. The strong labor market means workers are enjoying the best wage growth in years. The next two weeks will serve as a crucial test on how much more medicine the economy needs.

☆ A reading of more than 200,000 jobs added in February would be the Fed's trigger for a big March rate hike, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will likely upsize its March rate hike if the February jobs report shows 200,00 or more jobs added, Barclays said. Investors on Tuesday quickly pushed up the odds the Fed deliver a rate hike of a half-percentage point after downsizing the pace to 25 basis points last month. The February jobs report due Friday is expected to show the world's largest economy added 203,000 jobs, with a steady unemployment rate of 3.4%. The January jobs report trounced expectations with growth of 517,000 jobs. Such moves would put the peak of the Fed's benchmark interest rate at 5.5%-5.75% assuming that after June, the Fed sees sufficient evidence that slowing in employment and wages warrant a pause in rate hikes, Barclays said.

☆ Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff is bracing for a brutal recession - and says he was blindsided by the market chaos last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Marc Benioff was blindsided by the sudden shift in markets and the economy last year, he said. The Salesforce CEO was surprised by inflation, flagging demand, and swings in stocks and currencies. Benioff is bracing for another recession after weathering the dot-com crash and financial crisis. Now, he's bracing for a recession that could rival the dot-com crash and the financial crisis. Benioff emphasized that he steered the customer-relationship management (CRM) specialist through both the dot-com crash and the Great Recession.

ORLANDO, Fla., Feb 16 (Reuters) - The notion that higher interest rates would slam stocks has been turned on its head by Wall Street's resilience to the most dramatic upward repricing of the U.S. rate outlook in decades. More remarkable still, it is the areas most sensitive to higher borrowing costs - tech, the Nasdaq and growth stocks - that are outperforming in the face of soaring bond yields, implied rates and Fed expectations. These sectors are more sensitive to rising yields because future cash flows and profits are discounted at higher rates. "Higher interest rates are less bad for stock prices, even though rates can continue to weigh on multiples." In a higher rate regime, profitability matters.

☆ NatWest calls time on UK banks’ rate-hike party
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

But NatWest Chief Executive Alison Rose has brought that excitement to an end. It’s surprising that Rose thinks lending margins have maxed out already. Higher rates take a while to feed into revenue because so many borrowers have long-term or fixed-rate debt, which reprices slowly. That would be a cause for celebration among households and firms with spare cash, but it might bring the bank share-price party to an end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Lyft is second horse in a one-horse town
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Lyft (LYFT.O) shares skidded 35% on Friday morning after the company reported dismal quarterly results. Lyft’s net loss of nearly $600 million in the fourth quarter was twice what it lost a year earlier. Uber dominates ride-sharing because it has five times as many monthly active drivers and couriers as Lyft. The ride-sharing firm recorded a quarterly net loss of $588 million compared to a net loss of $283 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Lyft rival Uber Technologies reported on Feb. 8 that fourth-quarter revenue increased 49% to $8.6 billion.

☆ Inflation: Fed's Neel Kashkari says prices are still too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, understands that consumers are still struggling to deal with high prices. Kashkari told CNN’s Poppy Harlow Tuesday that he knows first hand how expensive many consumer goods and services are. Job market strength fueling more inflationKashkari acknowledged that inflation pressures are easing, but said the Fed is still not comfortable with how high prices are, particularly for services. He told Harlow he’s penciling in short-term rates as high as 5.4% before pausing. It’s hard to have a recession when the job market is still so robust, he told Harlow.

☆ Bond strategists take axe to U.S. Treasury yield forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bond strategists at JPMorgan noted recently that the U.S. Treasury market is already priced for a recession and not just for the heightened risks of one. Already off their peaks from late last year and early 2023, major benchmark government bond yields have eased 20-40 basis points since, and more than 50 basis points on the particularly rate-sensitive U.S. two-year Treasury yield. That is about 30 basis points lower on the one-year horizon than a poll published in December. This would extend one of the longest periods on record where two-year yields have been higher than 10-year ones, a yield curve inversion. The poll expected German bund yields to rise from their current 2.25% to around 2.4% in three and six months.

☆ Inflation is expected to have declined in December, but it may not be enough to stop the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December's jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. Rental market data shows a slowing in rates, but the CPI has not yet reflected it. "Everyone is familiar with the lag that it takes for the data to show up in the CPI," Tilley added.

☆ 7 ways to unwind after an intense therapy session, from a licensed clinical social worker
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Renée Onque | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Depending on what you discuss with your therapist, the end of a therapy session can trigger emotions like sadness or exhaustion. Maybe the next day or two, your body feels a bit sore, you're a bit tired. In therapy, you're doing hard work. That's why it's extremely important to decompress after an intense conversation during therapy, even for just five to 15 minutes, says Kaplan. Here are some practices she recommends penciling into your calendar immediately after a therapy session, especially after difficult conversations.

☆ Nike’s Inventory Problem: Passing It Along
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Jinjoo Lee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Nike said Tuesday that revenue on a currency-neutral basis was up 28% in its fiscal second quarter compared with a year ago. Nike not only scored big last quarter, but it also made some great strategic passes. There was a lot to like in Nike’s latest performance: The company said on Tuesday that revenue was up 28% on a currency-neutral basis in its fiscal quarter ended Nov. 30 compared with a year earlier. Impressively, its sales growth is only slightly behind that of Lululemon , which is growing off a revenue base that is just 14% of Nike’s. Net income was flat compared with a year earlier, much better than the 23% decline Wall Street was penciling in.

☆ Corporate America isn’t afraid of the Fed’s monster rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s super-sized interest rates are not scaring most companies into cutting back on spending, according to a survey released on Wednesday. That’s despite the Fed raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to cool inflation. Only about 30% of CFOs say rates have already dampened spending plans, according to the survey. The Fed has signaled it will likely keep raising interest rates next year, with benchmark rates likely to top 5%. The survey found that inflation remains the top worry of CFOs, followed by the worker shortage and rising interest rates from the Fed.

☆ Chewy’s Online Pet Dominance Could Lose Its Bite
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Jinjoo Lee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Chewy remains the dominant pet e-commerce player, capturing roughly 40% of the market, according to a MoffettNathanson estimate. The online pet kingdom is no longer a free pasture for Chewy . Chewy said Thursday that revenue rose 14.5% from a year earlier in its quarter ended Oct. 30, better than the 10.8% that Wall Street analysts polled by Visible Alpha were expecting. That breaks a streak of six consecutive quarters of slowing year-over-year revenue growth, and easily tops Petco ‘s 4% growth. Chewy turned a profit of $2.3 million, a pleasant surprise compared with the $33 million loss analysts were penciling in.

☆ Nightmare Before Christmas for Department Stores
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Jinjoo Lee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Department stores cozied up to shoppers with early holiday deals, only to be met with cold shoulders. Will they have a late Christmas or none at all? Macy’s and Kohl’s both met tempered expectations in their respective quarterly reports ahead of the all-important holiday selling season. Macy’s, which also owns Bloomingdale’s, saw comparable-store sales at owned stores decline 3.1% in its quarter ended Oct. 29, which was better than the 4.3% decline Wall Street analysts polled by Visible Alpha were penciling in. Kohl’s saw comparable-store sales decline 6.9% over the same period, in line with its recent guidance.

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