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The IMF said Wednesday that increased government spending, growing public debt and elevated interest rates in the United States had contributed to high and volatile yields — or interest rates — on Treasuries, raising the risk of higher rates elsewhere. “Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, told reporters. Higher interest rates make it more costly for households and businesses to service their loans, which can lead to defaults that cause losses at banks and other lenders, increasing financial instability. That means that even if the Fed cuts interest rates later this year — the IMF’s central scenario — US government funding costs may not fall by the same margin, he added. The IMF expects US public debt to continue rising, helping drive government debt worldwide to close to 100% of global gross domestic product by 2029, from 93% last year.
Persons: ” Vitor Gaspar, , Jerome Powell, ” Tobias Adrian, Gaspar, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, That’s Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Treasury, US, Federal Locations: United States, Washington
CNN —At 111 years and 224 days old, John Alfred Tinniswood from England has officially claimed the title of world’s oldest living man. Guinness World Records made the announcement on Friday, two days after announcing the death of former title holder Juan Vicente Pérez at the age of 114, a month shy of his 115th birthday. “You either live long or you live short, and you can’t do much about it,” Tinniswood said in an interview with Guinness in which he was presented with his certificate. He was born the same year the Titanic sank. The great-grandfather currently resides in a care home in the English seaside town of Southport.
Persons: John Alfred Tinniswood, Juan Vicente Pérez, , ” Tinniswood, Tinniswood, , , Katie Howard Organizations: CNN, Guinness World Records, Guinness, Titanic, Liverpool football, FA, Southport ., BBC Locations: England, English, Liverpool, Southport
There are five major trends that have China headed for a "100-year storm," according to billionaire investor Ray Dalio. They include a big debt problem, a growing internal wealth gap, and increasingly fraught foreign relations with the US. "The circumstances and the mood in China have indisputably changed to become more threatening," Dalio said in a LinkedIn post. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyAdvertisementThere are major economic and geopolitical challenges brewing a "100-year storm" in China, says billionaire investor Ray Dalio.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio Organizations: Service, Business Locations: China, Beijing
A TikTok about Costco's emergency food kits went viral, sparking some panicked speculations. But emergency meal kits are handy during emergencies and natural disasters, not just the apocalypse. AdvertisementWhen a TikTok showcasing some of the emergency food kits for sale at Costco went viral, people in the comments had questions — and some mild panic. Related storiesReadywise's emergency meal kits can last up to 25 years, while Mountain House says it has a 30-year taste guarantee. Mountain House Breakfast Skillet Kelsey VlamisThe breakfast option from Mountain House was also a winner.
Persons: , Readywise, Norm Ramos, there's, Mount House, Kelsey Vlamis, Chili, Fettuccine Alfredo, Kelsey, Kraft, Skillet Kelsey, It's, Beef, Alfredo, Chicken Kelsey, I, Alfredo … Organizations: Service, Costco, Mount, House Locations: Readywise, Tabasco
The expansion of government-subsidized housing loans meant that cheap space was also easy to come by, as New York had a then-ample stock of residential and industrial buildings. But the city has always romanticized artist-dominated buildings, the kinds of communal spaces in which every unit might be home to an artist’s studio (and sometimes, unofficially, their residences, too). In an almost unheard-of feat of perseverance, the same artist, Don Dudley, 93, has been working out of this loft since 1971. So artists have had to create a kind of whisper network to withstand New York’s unimpeachable forward march, which the art market has, ironically, enabled. Most of them are temporary fixes before an artist — who’s grown out, or been priced out, of their space — has to move on.
Persons: Bill, Don Dudley, What’s, it’s, — who’s Organizations: Veterans, Pop Art, Brooklyn Army, Financial, Artists Locations: Europe, Paris, New York, York, Sunset, Williamsburg , Brooklyn, Ridgewood , Queens, TriBeCa, , Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese companies are doing something rarely seen since the 1970s: setting up their own volunteer armies. According to China’s Military Service Law, male militia members should be 18 to 35 years old. It was latest in a slew of militias established by major Chinese companies in the past year. After 1949, when the party took control of mainland China, the units were eventually embedded into governments, schools and companies. This can, in the long run, save the PLA resources by delegating some duties to militia forces to care for,” Heath said.
Persons: Xi, , Neil Thomas, Nuo Nuo, Huang Zhiqiang, Qilai Shen, Liu Jie, Mao Zedong, Mao, Timothy Heath, homebuyers, Heath, ” Heath, Willy Lam, Sam Yeh, ” Lam, China’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, People’s Armed Forces Departments, America’s National Guard, Communist, Asia Society, Center for, Communist Party, China Labour Bulletin, Foxconn, Yili, Armed Forces Department, China’s Military Service Law, People’s Liberation Army, PLA, government’s Communist Party, Inner Mongolia Autonomous, Bloomberg, Getty, Shanghai Municipal Investment Group, Construction Investment, Development, Defense Ministry, People’s Armed Police, Armed, Rand Corporation, Jamestown Foundation, Party, Taiwan Locations: China, Hong Kong, Center for China, Beijing, Zhengzhou, Henan, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, Yili, Shanghai, Mengniu, Nantong city, Jiangsu, Huizhou city, Guangdong, Wuhan, Hubei province, People’s Republic, United States, Taiwan, Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, , PLA, Taiwan's, AFP
Richard Branson and other public figures have signed an open letter warning of AI risks. The letter, issued by The Elders and the Future of Life Institute, urges world leaders to take action. The letter highlights risks, including the climate crisis, pandemics, nuclear weapons, and AI. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRichard Branson and the grandson of J. Robert Oppenheimer are among the signatories of an open letter warning of the risks of uncontrolled AI.
Persons: Richard Branson, , J, Robert Oppenheimer Organizations: The Elders, Life Institute, Service, Business
Richard Branson believes the environmental costs of space travel will "come down even further." Dozens of high-profile figures in business and politics are calling on world leaders to address the existential risks of artificial intelligence and the climate crisis. Virgin Group founder Richard Branson, along with former United Nations General Secretary Ban Ki-moon, and Charles Oppenheimer — the grandson of American physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer — signed an open letter urging action against the escalating dangers of the climate crisis, pandemics, nuclear weapons, and ungoverned AI. Signatories called for urgent multilateral action, including through financing the transition away from fossil fuels, signing an equitable pandemic treaty, restarting nuclear arms talks, and building global governance needed to make AI a force for good. The letter was released on Thursday by The Elders, a nongovernmental organization that was launched by former South African President Nelson Mandela and Branson to address global human rights issues and advocate for world peace.
Persons: Richard Branson, Ban, Charles Oppenheimer —, J, Robert Oppenheimer —, Nelson Mandela, Branson, MIT cosmologist Max Tegmark, Jaan Tallinn Organizations: Virgin Group, United Nations, Elders, South, Life Institute, MIT, Skype
The Doomsday Clock Keeps Ticking
  + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Dennis Overbye | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
In Seattle, where I grew up in the 1950s and ’60s, it was common wisdom that in the event of nuclear war, we were No. 2 on the target list because Seattle was the home of Boeing, maker of B-52 bombers and Minuteman missiles. In school we had various drills for various catastrophes, and we had to remember which was which. “The 40-year-long East-West nuclear arms race has ended.”A year ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine and brandished the threat of using nuclear weapons, the clock was set to 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has yet come to The End. The threat of nuclear weapons in Ukraine has diminished since then, but the clock remains poised at 90 seconds before zero.
Persons: , Organizations: Seattle, Boeing, Minuteman, Atomic Scientists Locations: Seattle, Santa Monica, Los Angeles, San Fernando Valley, Soviet Union, Russia, Ukraine
Vas Narasimhan, chief executive officer of Novartis AG, listens during a panel session on the opening day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019. Vas Narasimhan, CEO of pharmaceutical firm Novartis, told CNBC Tuesday that he didn't believe there had been much improvement in preparedness for pandemics in the wake of the Covid crisis. "I'm sad to say, I don't think we've improved unfortunately," said Narasimhan, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He explained that there did not appear to be the continued level of investment as hoped for, during this "inter-pandemic" period. "Now that we're past the pandemic — and really because of the feats of our industry, companies coming up with incredible mRNA vaccines and diagnostic tools — we're back to almost no investment from governments," Narasimhan said.
Persons: Vas, Narasimhan Organizations: Novartis AG, Economic, Novartis, CNBC Locations: Davos, Switzerland
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
The boomers had it great, the argument goes, but then they went and screwed it all up. For one thing, baby boomers didn't have it easy: The America they grew up in was poorer, less educated, less healthy, and more unfair than the society we live in today. To better understand how individuals and families are experiencing the economy, it's important to look at wages, income, and wealth. Boomers have consistently passed laws to make building housing harder, leaving the country with a structural housing deficit. Beyond the economy, the boomers have handed off other deep problems that the younger generations will have to solve.
Persons: Gen Zers, Zers, millennials, Norman Rockwell, , they've, we're, it's, Zer, Andy Kiersz Organizations: Black, Boomers, Business Locations: America
Worrying About Pandemics Is So 2020. Should It Be?
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Jon Sindreu | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The Covid-19 pandemic has widened differences between rich and developing countries. Photo: Johis Alarcon/Bloomberg NewsAmid all the concerns about inflation, interest rates and wars this year, at least investors haven’t needed to worry about pandemics. Exhibit one: The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, is on shaky ground. This U.S. initiative, created by George W. Bush in 2003, claims to have saved the lives of about 25 million people around the world. This year, though, opposition led by Rep. Chris Smith—who claims PEPFAR has been hijacked to promote abortion—has foiled the effort.
Persons: Johis Alarcon, haven’t, George W, Bush, Chris Smith —, PEPFAR, Organizations: Bloomberg, AIDS Relief, Rep Locations: U.S
The analyst community (which forecasts individual stock earnings and prices) is also making estimates for 2024. Unfortunately, like their macroeconomic strategist brethren, Wall Street analysts also have a long history of being wrong on their forecasts. Since the S & P 500 rises in almost three out of four years, analysts are understandably a generally bullish group. There have been four years in the last 20 where the analyst estimates at the start of the year differed from the final estimates by a margin greater than 25%. No wonder the S & P 500 closed Friday at a new high for the year.
Persons: Bob, John Butters, FactSet, Morgan Housel Organizations: Wall Street
The author behind the best-selling book "The Psychology of Money" is trying to relieve investor anxiety over market downturns. "Realizing how inevitable it is makes it more palatable to deal with when you go through it," author and behavioral finance expert Morgan Housel told CNBC's "ETF Edge" recently. He also advises investors to always have a plan for surprise events because they can catch the market off guard. Housel added these surprise events, such as natural disasters and pandemics, tend to be all that matter in market shakeups. But just as the market eventually stabilizes, even times of calm can also "plant the seeds for crazy."
Persons: Morgan Housel, CNBC's, Housel Organizations: Collaborative Fund Locations: Housel
BEIJING (AP) — A surge in respiratory illnesses across China that has drawn the attention of the World Health Organization is caused by the flu and other known pathogens and not by a novel virus, the country's health ministry said Sunday. The emergence of new flu strains or other viruses capable of triggering pandemics typically starts with undiagnosed clusters of respiratory illness. Chinese authorities earlier this month blamed the increase in respiratory diseases on the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. Other countries also saw a jump in respiratory diseases such as RSV when pandemic restrictions ended. WHO said that there was too little information at the moment to properly assess the risk of these reported cases of respiratory illness in children.
Persons: , Mi Feng Organizations: BEIJING, World Health, National Health Commission, WHO Locations: China, Beijing, Wuhan
GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization says it has made an official request to China for information about a potentially worrying spike in respiratory illnesses and clusters of pneumonia in children. The U.N. health agency cited unspecified media reports and a global infectious disease monitoring service as reporting clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia in children in northern China. Political Cartoons View All 1265 ImagesWHO said media reports about a week later reported clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia in children in northern China. WHO said that northern China has reported a jump in influenza-like illnesses since mid-October compared to the previous three years. It is rare for the U.N. health agency to publicly ask for more detailed information from countries, as such requests are typically made internally.
Persons: David Heymann, ” Heymann, Francois Balloux, ” Balloux, China's, ___ Cheng, Wanqing Chen Organizations: GENEVA, World Health Organization, WHO, National Health Commission, London School of Hygiene, Tropical Medicine, University College London, Beijing Children’s Hospital, China National Radio, Health Commission, Xinhua News Agency Locations: China, Beijing, London
Emmett Shear is the new interim CEO of OpenAI after Sam Altman's surprise ouster. AdvertisementEmmett Shear, the man slated to be the new interim CEO of OpenAI, believes artificial intelligence has a very real potential to destroy all life. "That loop will get tighter and tighter and tighter, and faster and faster and faster, until it can fully self-improve itself. There's a 5 to 50% probability that this could actually play out, Shear told Bartlett, though he said there was still "uncertainty" around such estimates. In another interview in September, Shear told podcast host and entrepreneur Shaan Puri that it was his optimism toward AI that made him fear its capabilities.
Persons: Emmett Shear, Sam Altman's, Altman, , Shear, Logan Bartlett, Bartlett, Shaan Puri, Sam Altman, Shear's, Dall, it's, OpenAI Organizations: Service, Business Insider Locations: There's
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel's war cabinet has approved letting in two fuel trucks a day into Gaza to help meet U.N. needs, an Israeli official said on Friday. The official, who declined to be identified, said the decision came after a request from Washington. Allowing in the fuel, the official said, gives Israel extra room to maneuver in the international arena so it can continue its campaign to eradicate Hamas in Gaza. The amount of fuel will give "minimal" support for water, sewage and sanitary systems in Gaza to prevent pandemics, the official said. (Reporting by Ari Rabinovitch; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
Persons: Ari Rabinovitch, Philippa Fletcher Locations: JERUSALEM, Gaza, Washington, Israel
The coronavirus pandemic exposed frailties in their supply chains. Chinese President Xi Jinping, too, met with American business leaders — at a $2,000-per-plate dinner Wednesday evening. “The global economy is recovering, but its momentum remains sluggish,” Xi said. “Industrial and supply chains are still under the threat of interruption and protectionism is rising. The new framework has four major pillars: supply chains, climate, anti-corruption and trade.
Persons: Fresh, Joe Biden, “ We've, ” Biden, hasn't, Bill Clinton, Biden, Kamala Harris, Alexei Overchuk —, “ Will, Xi Jinping, , , Xi, ” Xi, Josh Boak, Didi Tang Organizations: FRANCISCO, APEC, Russia's, U.S, Smithsonian National Zoo, Atlanta Zoo, Biden, Pacific, won’t, Associated Press Locations: China, U.S, Bangkok, Ukraine, Israel, Russia, United States, Northern California, Tokyo, Washington, San Francisco
Tuvalu's Department of Foreign Affairs describes climate change as "one of the most existential security risks currently threatening" the country. Australia and the South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu are to forge closer ties thanks to a new agreement covering areas including security, migration and climate change. The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, a bilateral treaty, sees Australia pledging to create "a special mobility pathway" that will enable Tuvaluans to go to Australia to work, study and live. To start with, the number of Tuvaluans eligible to go to Australia will be capped at 280 a year. "With a population of just over 11,000 people, Tuvalu is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change, especially rising sea levels, and is trying to preserve its culture, traditions and land," the Australian government said in a statement.
Persons: Tuvaluans Organizations: Tuvalu's Department of Foreign Affairs, Tuvalu Falepili Locations: Funafuti, Tuvalu, Australia, South Pacific, Tuvalu Falepili Union
New York CNN —A pair of Republicans leading powerful House committees are calling for the Department of Veterans Affairs to speed up efforts to decrease the agency’s reliance on China for medical supplies, CNN has learned. The Covid-19 pandemic laid bare a dangerous vulnerability in America’s medical supply chains that resulted in shortages of masks, respirators and other life-saving gear. “The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the national security and public health risks of failing to guarantee adequate medical supplies. As the biggest buyer of medical supplies among federal agencies, it has considerable influence. Congress has attempted to take steps to boost the resilience of the nation’s medical supply chain by easing dependence on goods from less friendly nations like China.
Persons: Mike Gallagher, Mike Bost, Denis McDonough, Bost, Gallagher, , ” Terrence Hayes, Joe Biden, Health Richard Stone, ” Bost, McDonough, Democratic Sen, Tom Carper, Republican Sen, Thom Tillis, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Department of Veterans Affairs, CNN, Veterans ’, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Department of Veteran Affairs, Defense Department, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Health, Human Services, Republicans, Health, World Trade Organization, Congress, Democratic, Republican Locations: New York, China, United States, America, Covid, Mexico, Malaysia
In ‘The Future,’ Earth Barrels Toward Fiery Destruction
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Ian Wang | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
THE FUTURE, by Naomi AldermanThere are few figures in the Bible more cruelly evocative than Lot’s wife, who is transfigured into a pillar of salt for looking back at Sodom. Early in her novel, a woman is frozen to death with a chemical refrigerant made of paramagnetic salts: a Lot’s wife for the Information Age. Alderman’s Sodom is our own polarized, plutocratic world. Whether by divine will or not, “The Future” finds the earth barreling toward fiery destruction. But no such fever pitch is reached in Alderman’s new novel, whose outlook is decidedly more reformist than revolutionary.
Persons: Naomi Alderman, Anna Akhmatova, , Kurt Vonnegut, ” Naomi Alderman’s “, Zimri Nommik, Ellen Bywater, , Alderman, Harvey Weinstein, Locations: United States
Blinken described all of these as “a work in progress” and acknowledged deep divisions over the pause concept. There has also been resistance to discussing Gaza's future, with the Arab states insisting that the immediate humanitarian crisis must be addressed first. Securing agreement from G7 members, none of which border or are directly involved in the conflict, may be a slightly less daunting challenge for Blinken. Despite some fraying around the edges, the group has preserved a unified front in condemning and opposing Russia’s war. Yet the Gaza crisis has inflamed international public opinion and democracies are not immune from intense passions that have manifested themselves in massive pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel demonstrations in G7 capitals and elsewhere.
Persons: Antony Blinken, we’re, ” Blinken, Jordan, Turkey — Blinken, we’ve, , Blinken Organizations: TOKYO, West Bank Locations: East, U.S, Israel, Asia, Japan, Gaza, Russia, Ukraine, North Korea, Ankara, Turkey, Tokyo, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Cyprus, Iraq, United States, Korea, China
Elon Musk announced his new company xAI which he says has the goal to understand the true nature of the universe. Elon Musk said Friday that his AI company, xAI, will debut its technology on Saturday. "Tomorrow, xAI will release its first AI to a select group," Musk posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. In August, xAI seemed to be hiring, according to posts on social media by multiple members of the company. Musk incorporated xAI in Nevada in March, according to filings.
Persons: Elon Musk, xAI, Musk, Bard, Claude, Tesla, DeepMind's AlphaCode, OpenAI's, Greg Yang, Toby Pohlen, Dan Hendrycks Organizations: Google, Nvidia, Team, DeepMind, Google Research, Microsoft Research, Twitter, CNBC, Fox News Channel, xAI, X, X Corp, Center, AI Safety Locations: Nevada, San Francisco
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