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What This $100B Ghost City Says About China’s Real Estate Crisis Country Garden, once seen as one of China’s most stable property developers, is now struggling financially, leaving the future of unfinished megadevelopments like the $100 billion Forest City in doubt. Here’s how overbuilding, and a streak of bad luck, have left China’s real-estate developers in the red. Photo: Adam Adada
Persons: Adam Adada Organizations: Ghost, Forest City Locations: China’s
What This $100 Billion Ghost City Says About China’s Real-Estate CrisisCountry Garden, once seen as one of China’s most stable property developers, is now struggling financially, leaving the future of unfinished megadevelopments like Malaysia's Forest City in doubt. Here’s how overbuilding, and a streak of bad luck, have left China’s real-estate developers in the red. Photo: Adam Adada
Persons: Adam Adada Organizations: Malaysia's Forest City Locations: Malaysia's Forest
Here are the seven smartest ways to invest in Chinese markets, according to UBS. Stimulus should keep Chinese stocks from sinkingHowever, UBS believes that plenty of pain has already been priced into Chinese stocks. Naturally, China's property market turmoil has inspired comparisons to the US housing market bubble that led to the global financial crisis, but Yu is confident that such fears are overblown. "The government has the toolkit to minimize the risk of having something that is systematically disastrous in the financial markets," Yu said. If China's growth exceeds expectations, companies in the consumer discretionary and materials sectors will be among the biggest beneficiaries, according to UBS.
Persons: David Kelly, Xingchen Yu, Solita Marcelli, Yu, there's Organizations: US, UBS, Asset Management Locations: China, Shanghai, People's Republic, Swiss, Beijing, Taiwan
China's property troubles may slow the economy down, Nicholas Lardy, a China economy expert, told CNN. However, the issues will not create a financial crisis, he added. Even so, one Chinese economy expert thinks the crisis is unlikely to spill over into the broader economy. Advertisement Advertisement Watch: Ken Rogoff on the next financial crisis and the future of bitcoinChina's property sector has been gripped in a crisis since 2021 when property giant Evergrande ran into a liquidity crisis. The market was so hot that Chinese developers were taking on massive borrowings to build apartments ahead of demand.
Persons: Nicholas Lardy, it's, Ken Rogoff, Evergrande, Lardy, Lina Batarags Organizations: CNN, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Wall, Silicon
And, in the meantime, our China-focused names are poised to ride out the storm, while finding alternate routes to growth. Beyond the housing-sector woes, manufacturing activity is shrinking, a youth unemployment crisis is a ballooning, and consumer spending remains sluggish. With these macroeconomic headwinds holding back growth for some of the Club's key holdings, here's why we're sticking with these China-exposed names — and how each is responding. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, Lauder, Estee Lauder, we're, Tim Cook, That's, Bernstein, WYNN, Wynn, Stifel, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Yan Daming Organizations: Wall, Research, CNBC, Big Tech, Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Wynn, Visual China, Getty Locations: China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Hainan, India, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Americas, Europe, U.S, Macao, Wynn, Nanjing, Shanghai
The news about China’s economy over the past few weeks has been daunting, to put it mildly. The country’s growth has fallen from its usual brisk 8 percent annual pace to more like 3 percent. And China’s citizens, frustrated by lengthy coronavirus lockdowns and losing confidence in the government, haven’t been able to consume their way out of the country’s pandemic-era malaise. If the world’s second-largest economy is stumbling so badly, what does that mean for the biggest? That could change, however, if China’s current shakiness deepens into a collapse that drags down an already slowing global economy.
Persons: haven’t, Wells Locations: United States, China, U.S
Earlier this year, David Yang was brimming with confidence about the prospects for his perfume factory in eastern China. “It is disheartening,” Mr. Yang said. “The economy is really going downhill right now.”For much of the past four decades, China’s economy seemed like an unstoppable force, the engine behind the country’s rise to a global superpower. A real estate crisis borne from years of overbuilding and excessive borrowing is running alongside a larger debt crisis, while young people are struggling with record joblessness. And amid the drip feed of bad economic news, a new crisis is emerging: a crisis of confidence.
Persons: David Yang, Covid, Yang, Mr Locations: China
That model is starting to show its weaknesses, however, as it's created a lopsided economy with too much supply and soft demand. "Stimulus functions on the supply side, and on the demand side you need structural reforms. Everything appears to be boiling over all at once, but China's problems have been years in the making. Confidence crisisThese issues have manifested most clearly in the real estate market, which now faces a glut of inventory thanks to years of overbuilding. "There could be a real rapid decline in real estate prices that would hurt a lot of people's livelihoods."
Persons: it's, William Hurst, hasn't, Hurst, that's, Alfredo Montufar Organizations: Service, University of Cambridge, New York Times, Conference Board, Garden Holdings, Conference Board's China Center Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Cambridge
China's economy is finally hitting a wall after years of optimism about the nation's future, Larry Summers said. According to Summers, US GDP is set to exceed China's for another generation. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. China's struggling economy has become a worry factor for investors amid fears that the Asian nation's deepening slowdown could have spillover effects for global markets. US President Joe Biden went as far as to say China's economy could be a "ticking time bomb" as the nation also suffers from sluggish growth and high unemployment.
Persons: Larry Summers, Summers, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Harvard Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russia, Japan, Washington, United States, Berlin, Cuba, Eastern Europe
The last, best hope for homebuyers
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +12 min
But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.
Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Realtor.com, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's
Additionally, Cargill began marketing several plant-based protein ingredients, made from soy, pea and wheat, to food and beverage manufacturers worldwide. What to expect for plant-based meat in next decade Cargill's calculated approach to plant-based meats coincides with the nascent industry's trajectory. And then there's the consumer's appetite to pay a premium price for plant-based meat. So Cargill's biggest competition will be the established plant-based meat companies, like Beyond and Impossible, he said. The future of plant-based meat might be analogous to the ongoing transition to electric vehicles.
Persons: Florian Schattenmann, Cargill Cargill, Cargill, Schattenmann, it's, John Baumgartner, Baumgartner, Caroline Bushnell, Bushnell, that's, Seth Goldstein, Goldstein, Tyson's Organizations: Cargill, Foods, Tyson Foods, Hormel Foods, Smithfield Foods, Cargill Inc, The, Bloomberg, Getty, Foods Cargill, Mizuho Securities USA, Good Food Institute, Cubiq Foods, FDA, North, Food and Drug Administration, Morningstar Research Services, Nielsen, annualized Nielsen, Nestle, Tesla, tiptoed, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Volkswagen Locations: U.S, Minneapolis, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Spanish, Berkeley , California, Puris, North American, Netherlands, Bflike, Belgian, North America
Andy Jassy, CEO of Club holding Amazon (AMZN), said Thursday he's committed to investing in overall growth while creating cost efficiencies throughout the enterprise. Jim has said that Amazon needs to cut another 200,000 jobs or more to even approach pre-pandemic staffing of around 798,000 in Q4 of 2019. For example, Amazon has stopped physical store expansion, shuttered Amazon Care and Amazon Fabric, and it's letting go of devices that won't provide solid returns. Jassy also addressed Amazon's stock price during CNBC's interview. AMZN .SPX mountain 2020-04-09 Amazon vs. S & P 500 since April 2020 Bottom line Amazon needs to make additional moves to further reduce its headcount.
"I feel stupid driving around with my brand-new Tesla Model Y," Mark told me. Tesla spent the past two decades defying expectations and disrupting the automotive industry, but in 2023 the once revolutionary car company did the seemingly unthinkable: It turned fanboys against it. But after years of rocketing ahead of legacy car companies' tech, the futuristic guts of Tesla's vehicles have started to go stale. Companies like Ford and Audi are changing their sales strategies to model Tesla's innovative direct-sales style. These companies have something Musk doesn't: nationwide networks of brick-and-mortar locations where customers can have their vehicles serviced and repaired.
Price slashes and piled up inventory at Tesla pose a big problem for rival startups. The electric-vehicle company is grappling for the first time with a bloated inventory and softer demand for its cars. Tesla's move "represents a significant setback" for the company's EV competitors, Garrett Nelson, a vice president and senior equity analyst at the investment-research firm CFRA, said in a January 13 note. "This move from Tesla is going to have a huge impact on the EV market but especially on the startups." "Instead, we believe this likely is a bold offensive move, which secures Tesla's volume growth, puts its traditional and EV competitors in great difficulty, and showcases Tesla's considerable pricing power and cost superiority."
The company scaled back warehouse expansion last year in the face of an economic downturn. Amazon grew its warehouse footprint by 125 million square feet in 2020 and 137 million square feet in 2021, Wulfraat estimated. Amazon currently uses about 65% of its total warehouse capacity, lower than the 85% levels from 2019, Wulfraat estimated. That's because Amazon over-expanded in recent years, with warehouse growth "materially" outpacing product sales growth, he said. The company saved up to $4 billion last year when it scaled back warehouse expansion plans, according to Wulfraat.
Even so, Amazon's warehouse footprint is "remarkable" compared to competitors, analysts say. Amazon added roughly half of Walmart's distribution network this year and will keep adding in 2023. The company delayed new building openings and canceled 11 million square feet of projects this year, according to Wells Fargo, citing Wulfraat. But Amazon's moves are by no means a retreat since the company continues to improve delivery speeds and dominate the US market in terms of warehouse footprint. Between 2020 and 2022, Amazon added more than 200 million square feet of warehouse space, doubling its physical footprint in the United States.
Director of homebuilding research Alan Ratner says a housing market recovery will take years. But Zelman & Associates definitely called this housing market slump. "Every 25 basis point increase in mortgage rates is the equivalent of a 3% increase in home prices," Ratner said. That's partly because a steep drop in prices won't make the housing market heat up again right away. But it will be a gradual process because the housing market has been through a historically unusual period.
Mike Schenk, chief economist of Credit Union National Association, said in a statement that the "healthy economic growth will not last." CEOs are pessimistic about the future and the hot labor market is coolingCEOs, for one, aren't feeling too good about the economy. "The labor market continues to be hot, even if it's cooled a little bit since the beginning of this year," Bunker told Insider. "Where we're seeing it does signal that it is sectors normalizing, rather than dramatically pulling back postings because they are concerned about short term economic growth." He noted that excess labor demand "gives you a lot of running room here before the labor market actually gets soft."
John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects price drops of 20% or more for certain housing markets. Higher mortgage rates have wrecked demand for homes, but the firm says prices are still too high. Devyn Bachman, the senior vice president of research for John Burns, told Insider she had begun to expect "GFC-like pricing declines in certain markets." A survey conducted by John Burns last month found roughly 18% of homebuilders were already reporting year-over-year net home-price declines. "It's going to be a challenging one to two years for anyone involved in housing," Bachman said.
New York CNN Business —Stubborn inflation and the Federal Reserve’s jumbo-sized interest rate hikes will drive the American economy into a 1990-style mild recession starting in the spring, Fitch Ratings warned on Tuesday. “The US recession we expect is quite mild,” economists at Fitch Ratings said. “US household finances are much stronger now than in 2008, the banking system is healthier and there is little evidence of overbuilding in the housing market,” Fitch Ratings economists wrote. By contrast, Fitch Ratings sees the unemployment rate rising from just 3.5% today to 5.2% in 2024. “Fitch Ratings expects a very strong consumer balance sheet and the strongest labor market in decades to cushion the impact of a likely recession,” the report said.
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