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PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis says that high US debt levels do not pose an immediate threat. Before that happens, volatility will rise in financial markets and the macro economy, he noted. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't fear US debt crisis just yet, as the situation is more benign than it appears, PIMCO econmist Peder Beck-Friis wrote on Thursday. In an op-ed in The Financial Times, Beck-Friis wrote that investors will need to prepare for higher instability before policymakers treat the debt seriously. Like many other big-name market observers, he argued that the aggressive rise in the US debt will eventually hit unsustainable levels.
Persons: Peder Beck, Friis, , PIMCO econmist Peder Beck, Beck, Bill Gross, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Financial, US Locations: Washington, Europe
“So far, the labor market has adjusted slowly, and the unemployment rate has only edged up. The industries that were most likely to advertise part-time work as of May were beauty and wellness; personal care and home health; retail; food preparation and service; and sports, Indeed said. During the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, part-time work rose sharply, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. “There was this rise in part-time work when the economy and the labor market were doing well coming out of the pandemic,” Culbertson told CNN. The US Labor Department releases June figures gauging the state of the labor market, including monthly job growth, wage gains and the unemployment rate.
Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, Daniel Culbertson, ” Culbertson, Alicia Wallace, Friday’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN — Companies, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of, CNN, Commerce Department, Commerce, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, Constellation Brands, Constellation Brands . New York Fed, US Commerce Department, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Constellation Brands .
Burgeoning debt and deficits are threatening to make the next recession deeper while tying the hands of policymakers, according to two leading economists. The Congressional Budget Office this week revised its estimates to paint an even bleaker version of the U.S. financial picture. Teetering on trouble In fact, Rosenberg thinks the economy already is nearing or in the early stages of recession. "With budget deficits historically high relative to an economy operating at full employment, the government could be facing double-digit budget deficits when the next downturn hits." While equity markets have largely shrugged off worries over the fiscal situation, LaVorgna and Rosenberg both insist that bond investors should pay attention.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Teetering, Janet Yellen, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, LaVorgna Organizations: Congressional, Rosenberg Research, Federal, CBO, CNBC, White House, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: U.S
Excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, the core PCE price index slowed for the month, rising 0.2% as compared to a 0.3% gain in March. On an annual basis, the core PCE price index held steady at 2.8%. Forecasts called for the monthly and annual increases in the overall and core index to be unchanged from March, according to FactSet consensus estimates. While the overall PCE price index is technically used as the Fed’s target rate, the core index has received more attention from Fed officials because it provides a clearer lens into how underlying inflation is behaving. Consumer spending also cooled for the month, rising just 0.2% as compared to the 0.7% increase recorded for March.
Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commerce Department
US real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter. While a slowdown was expected for the first quarter, the forecast was 2.5%. AdvertisementAmid US job growth above forecasts and accelerating inflation, the US economy in the first quarter of this year slowed more than expected. A news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis out Thursday showed US real gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 1.6%. "Looking ahead, we see the economy gently cooling as slower labor demand, easing wage growth, stubborn inflation, and tight credit conditions constrain private sector activity," Daco said.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, EY, Daco Organizations: Service Locations: That's
More CEOs expect hybrid work is here to stay
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Tim Paradis | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
"Hybrid is likely here to stay," Paul Knopp, chair and CEO at KPMG US, told Business Insider. AdvertisementThe survey of 100 CEOs of large US companies found that 46% of them expect what had been office roles will be hybrid, up from 34% in 2023. But corporate chiefs seem to be holding the line on remote work, with only 3% of top bosses backing fully remote work. AdvertisementSome seven in 10 CEOs said they expect to boost hiring during the next year, while only 4% expect to cut jobs during that time. AdvertisementNearly four in 10 CEOs expect their companies will move from AI pilots to broader use within their organizations during the next 12 to 18 months.
Persons: , It's, Paul Knopp, Knopp Organizations: Service, KPMG US, Business, America, KPMG,
China said it is "gravely concerned" over reports that Japan could join the AUKUS security pact. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementChina's foreign ministry said it is "gravely concerned" over reports that Japan could join AUKUS, a security and defense pact between Australia, the UK, and the US. Japan needs to earnestly draw lessons from history and stay prudent on military and security issues," she added. Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese clarified that working with Japan wouldn't signal recruitment.
Persons: , wasn't, Pilar, Aukus, Biden, Fumio Kishida, Mao Ning, Anthony Albanese, " Albanese, nothing's, There's Organizations: Service, US, Japan, White, China Morning Post, US Naval, Forbes, Australia, Reuters Locations: China, Japan, Australia
In China, which is angling to produce its own chips or get more from Nvidia, no dominant gen AI contender to OpenAI has emerged yet among dozens of Chinese tech titans and startups. Last year, funding of gen AI upstarts accounted for nearly half of $42.5 billion invested globally in artificial intelligence companies, according to CB Insights. "China is at a big disadvantage in building the foundation models for Gen AI," said Rui Ma, an AI investor and co-founder of investment syndicate and podcast TechBuzz China. China does have the tech talent to make a difference in the AI rivalry in the years ahead. Additionally, among top-tier AI researchers working at U.S. institutions, 38% have China as their country of origin, compared with 37% from the U.S.New Chinese gen AI market entries can also reach mass adoption quickly.
Persons: Ernie Bot, OpenAI, Paul Triolo, Jenny Xiao, Rui Ma, Triolo, Sora, Ma, Marco Polo, Baidu's, Ernie, Leong Organizations: Global, Trade, Hangzhou International, Nvidia, tech titans, titans Microsoft, Google, Amazon, U.S, Dentons Global Advisors, Leonis Capital, OpenAI, Paulson Institute, U.S ., Samsung, Apple, Baidu Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, Washington ,, Silicon, San Francisco, The U.S, U.S, OpenAI
New York CNN —Rising prices continued to loom large in January, but new data released Thursday showed that inflation is still on a downward — albeit bumpy — path toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was up 2.4% for the 12 months that ended in January, a slowdown from December’s 2.6% increase, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The closely watched core PCE index that excludes energy and food edged down to 2.8%. While the latest read on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed progress toward the central bank’s target, Thursday’s data also highlighted the choppiness of this yearslong battle to rein in spiking prices: Prices rose in January from December at their fastest clip in months. On a monthly basis, the PCE price index rose 0.3% and core jumped 0.4%.
Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Commerce Department Locations: New York
America has gone from a pandemic crash and recession fears to stocks at record highs and an economic boom. Lockdowns, wars, shortages, inflation, interest rates, day trading, and AI have all played a role. Noam Galai/SOPA/Getty ImagesMany Americans also socked away money during the pandemic, as they saved on expenses like travel and live entertainment. Stimulus-fueled demand, combined with pandemic and war-related supply disruptions, caused inflation to spike to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June that year. The Fed swiftly raised interest rates to rein in the price growth, lifting them from virtually zero to upward of 5% in under 18 months, and hasn't touched them since.
Persons: , We've, Noam Galai, hasn't, It's, dory Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, GameStop, AMC Entertainment, AMC, Bank Locations: America, China, Ukraine
German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz arrives for the weekly federal government cabinet meeting on Oct. 11, 2023 in Berlin, Germany. MUNICH, Germany — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Saturday reaffirmed Berlin's commitment to spend 2% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, this year and over the longer term. "Germany will invest 2% of its GDP on defense in the 2020s, in the 2030s and beyond," Scholz told the Munich Security Conference. It comes as NATO members across Europe have committed to upping their defense spending. Eighteen of the US-led military alliance's 31 members will meet the 2% spending target this year, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Scholz, Jens Stoltenberg, Stoltenberg, Donald Trump Organizations: Munich Security, Reuters, NATO Locations: Berlin, Germany, MUNICH, Europe, Russia
JAKARTA (Reuters) - The three main candidates contesting Indonesia's presidential elections this month are proposing to bolster government coffers by creating a new tax collection agency, despite scepticism from the tax and business community. Prabowo has set the highest tax-to-GDP target of 18%, or about $100 billion in additional tax revenue, if he wins the presidency, while also promising personal income tax cuts. NEW AGENCY NOT ENOUGHHowever, some economists and the business community say a new tax agency might not lead to higher revenue if other issues like the low tax base are not addressed. "There may be more binding constraints to revenue collection than administrative independence of the tax authority," the multinational lender told Reuters. "Tax officers should be fair ...
Persons: Joko Widodo's, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo, Drajad Wibowo, Jakarta Governor Anies, Wijayanto Samirin, Jahen, Fajry Akbar, Tutum, Stefanno Sulaiman, Stephen Coates Organizations: Jakarta Governor, U.S . Internal Revenue Service, Central Java, University of Indonesia, Bank, Reuters Locations: JAKARTA, Asia's, Indonesia
Ukrainian officials were quick to thank the European Union Thursday for approving an assistance package of about $54 billion, funds that will help alleviate a potentially severe financial crisis. The money will cover pensions, payments to people displaced by war and routine outlays such as salaries for teachers and doctors. But in thanking his European neighbors, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, also alluded to uncertainty over future American support, which Ukraine also needs. A $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is currently languishing in the United States Congress. Europe’s commitment, Mr. Zelensky said, would “send a signal across the Atlantic.”“Europe sets the tone for global affairs,” he told the E.U.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelensky, Organizations: United States Congress Locations: Ukraine, Europe
New York CNN —Stocks of small US lenders are still in the doldrums nearly a year after the regional banking crisis. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking index, which tracks the performance of regional lenders and thrifts, has fallen more than 2.4% this year compared to the benchmark S&P 500’s 2.6% gain. “This development is likely to … challenge the health of regional banks,” wrote José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a note on Thursday. Regional bank stocks struggled for much of 2023 after the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank sparked a flight on deposits and sent shockwaves through the stock and bond markets. High interest rates threatened to put pressure on regional banks’ bond portfolios and squeeze their bottom lines, creating a good old-fashioned bank run.
Persons: Huntington, PNC Financial Service’s, , José Torres, Alex McGrath, , McGrath, Samantha Murphy Kelly, David McQueen, ” Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, PNC, Comerica Inc, US Bancorp, Citizens, PNC Financial, Federal Reserve, Interactive Brokers, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, Bank, Microsoft, Apple, ABI Research, Gross, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China
The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.
Persons: , Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, , ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, , Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine
NEW YORK (AP) — Airbnb on Tuesday donated a total of $10 million to more than 120 nonprofits in 44 countries on six continents, the short-term rental giant's latest outlays in its unusual distribution of $100 million through its Airbnb Community Fund. “Airbnb has a 21st century company view,” said Janaye Ingram, Airbnb’s director of community partner programs and engagement. By supporting nonprofits that its hosts find valuable, Airbnb can get more funding to groups that help keep their communities strong, Ingram said. The board solicited recommendations for nonprofits from the hundreds of Airbnb Host Club leaders around the world. However, the Airbnb Community Fund is operated separately from that.
Persons: — Airbnb, “ Airbnb, , Janaye Ingram, Ingram, Brian Chesky, , , ” Chesky, Nadia Giordani, George Floyd, ” Giordani, “ We’re, Airbnb, ” Airbnb’s Ingram Organizations: Fund, Japanese, Dog Resource, Atlanta Habitat, Humanity, Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Airbnb Host Club, Corporate Purpose, Community Fund, Lilly Endowment Inc, AP Locations: Digify Africa, ” San Francisco, Airbnb, New York City, Atlanta, Minneapolis
GENEVA (AP) — The U.N.'s migration agency is launching its first “global appeal,” seeking $7.9 billion to help people on the move and ensure smoother pathways to migration, at a time when the fallout from climate change, conflict and both economic distress and opportunities has caused millions to leave their homes. His agency is seeking $46 billion this year. IOM says it hopes funding for its appeal will come from individual and private-sector donors in addition to governments. Political Cartoons View All 253 Images“Irregular and forced migration have reached unprecedented levels and the challenges we face are increasingly complex,” Pope said. “The evidence is overwhelming that migration, when well-managed, is a major contributor to global prosperity and progress."
Persons: Martin Griffiths, Amy Pope, ” Pope, , IOM's Organizations: GENEVA, International Organization for Migration, Humanitarian Affairs, IOM Locations: Geneva, Africa —, Libya, Europe
China's economy is headed for an era of stagnation and disappointment, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman wrote. The country's economic model has been unsustainable for years, given ultra-low consumer spending. "Let's not gloat about China's economic stumble, which may become everyone's problem." AdvertisementBut even under better stewardship, China's economic approach has been unsustainable for years and was set to break down eventually. "Let's not gloat about China's economic stumble, which may become everyone's problem."
Persons: Nobel, Paul Krugman, , Krugman, Xi, That's Organizations: Service, New York Times Locations: China, Japan, Tokyo, Beijing
Those hopes were reinforced by other data on Thursday showing the labor market gradually easing. Though wages remain elevated, the pace of increase has slowed from earlier in the year as the labor market eases. Personal consumptionINFLATION COOLINGInflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in October after rising 0.4% in September. Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index edged up 0.1% after gaining 0.3% in September. Still, the labor market is cooling in tandem with overall demand in the economy.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome, Powell, Conrad DeQuadros, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Brean, Commerce Department's, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Fed, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, New York, outlays, U.S
The core PCE price index is at its lowest annual rate since April 2021, marking another step toward the Fed’s target of 2% inflation. When including gas and food prices, the overall PCE index was unchanged last month. Consumer expenditures increased 0.2% last month, a marked pullback from the 0.7% jump seen in September. When taking out inflation, however, the 0.2% real spending in October was down only slightly from September’s 0.3% gain. Holiday uncertaintyThe spending patterns last month align with the ongoing trend of people spending their money more on experiences.
Persons: Bharat Ramamurti, Kayla Bruun, Jill Renslow, Bruun, ” Ramamurti, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, PCE, National Economic Council, CNN, Consumers, Morning, of, National Retail Federation Locations: Minneapolis, of America, Bloomington , Minnesota
Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, , Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, , American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City
The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina
The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
He had just flipped a Long Island congressional seat, improbably helping deliver Republicans a House majority. Over just a few days last November, Mr. Santos dropped $6,000 at Ferragamo, perhaps some of it on the red designer sneakers he later wore to walk the marble halls of Congress. He paid off his rent, and he pulled out another $1,000 in spending money at an A.T.M. It would have been nothing for the kind of wealthy financier Mr. Santos purported to be on the campaign trail. All of it was being illegally funded by Mr. Santos’s congressional campaign, which wired him $20,000 just after Thanksgiving without ever telling campaign donors or the Federal Election Commission.
Persons: George Santos, Santos, Santos siphoned, propping Organizations: Mr, Commission Locations: Ferragamo, Queens
REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson's plan to avert a government shutdown faces a key test on Tuesday, as he tries to overcome hardline opposition from his own Republican conference, even as some Democrats signal tentative support for the measure. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Congress' top Democrat, gave a tentative welcome to the proposal on Monday. But House Republican hardliners are threatening to use procedural roadblocks to stop the bill from advancing. With a slim 221-213 majority, the Republican speaker can afford to lose no more than three party votes on legislation that Democrats oppose. They claim the bill also leaves in place policies favored by prominent Democrats including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Nathan Howard, Mike Johnson's, Johnson, Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Schumer, Chip Roy, Roy, bipartisanship, Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi's, Andrew Clyde, Biden, McCarthy, David Morgan, Moira Warburton, Scott Malone, Richard Chang Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, ., Republican, Democratic, Republicans, Food and Drug Administration, House, Social Security, Total U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Mexico
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