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watch nowHousing inflation has remained stubbornly high even as inflation in the broad U.S. economy has cooled significantly from peak levels during the pandemic era. At a high level, "shelter" inflation is a measure of U.S. rental prices, said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Why CPI shelter inflation has fallen slowlyThe pullback in shelter inflation has been slower than expected, economists said. How the CPI reflects homeownershipThe shelter inflation index is meant to measure the average cost of housing in the U.S. economy, J.P. Morgan's Seydl said. "When it comes to the CPI, [shelter] does not mean the cost for homes for purchase," said the NAR's Lautz.
Persons: Joe Seydl, Jessica Lautz, Olivia Cross, We've, Jerome Powell, Selma Hepp, Morgan's Seydl, Powell, Seydl Organizations: Morgan Private Bank, Housing, National Association of Realtors, of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, Finance, Federal, CoreLogic, BLS, Olivia Cross North, Capital, CPI Locations: North America, U.S, Olivia Cross North America
How to trade Carnival before earnings using options
  + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Both the dividend and debt levels have important implications for the stock's volatility, the price of options generally, and the relationship between the price of puts and calls. The trade All else equal, higher levels of corporate debt increase leverage and, therefore, the volatility of a company's equity. Carnival's options are nearly twice as expensive now as they were at the end of 2019, but the higher levels of debt justify higher prices. Typically, we do not recommend selling covered calls into earnings unless options prices are very high, as earnings provide a catalyst that can move a stock. In this case, an 8% implied move is substantial, but due to the high debt levels, it merely represents a fair price for the options.
Persons: Francis Scott Key Organizations: Management, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Baltimore, Norfolk , Virginia
Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000, the highest since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since late August 2023 in a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing. Also, job openings have been declining amid expectations that the labor market is likely to slow through the year. The four-week moving average of claims, which helps smooth out weekly volatility in numbers, increased to 215,000, up 4,750 from the previous week. "One week does not a trend make, but we can no longer be sure that calm seas lie ahead for the US economy if today's weekly jobless claims are any indication." Markets reacted little to the jobless claims release, with stock market futures slightly negative and Treasury yields mixed.
Persons: Dow Jones, Christopher Rupkey, Robert Frick Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union Locations: New York
Some white-collar parents are leaving their jobs to take family gap years. It's sticking around as the world somewhat normalizes; Reddit is littered with threads looking for family gap year advice, which posters can easily find in various blogs. She now offers a family gap year and extended travel planning service for $80 to $100 an hour. "It could expand into a big business," she said, adding that her family gap year clients typically have disposable income and kids around 8 to 11 years old. AdvertisementWorld lessons, no classroom requiredNo family gap year is complete without immersive travel.
Persons: , Claire Williams, Matt, they'd, Claire, It's, Jennifer Spatz, itineraries, Amy Chang, Chang, Allen, they've, Spatz, Marisa Vitale, it's, She's, hadn't, what's Organizations: Service, Area, Federal, Global, United Nations Sustainable Locations: Sri Lanka, Sahara, worldschooling, COVID, Massachusetts, Asia, Europe, Venice, Italy, Airbnbs, Greece, Nepal, Sydney, Australia, Santiago, Chile, Spanish, Guatemala, Vietnam, Argentine, Jordan, Patagonia, Los Angeles, California, Salt Lake City, U.S
Speculating about how the economy would perform under a second Donald Trump presidency normalizes the candidacy of a deeply flawed human being. So it seems important to talk about the economic outlook under another Trump term. They told me that a Trump 2.0 administration would be a lot like the Trump 1.0 administration — except, they hope, more disciplined and more effective. Trump has said he wants to extend in full the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, parts of which are set to expire at the end of 2025. The hope: If Trump can pull down inflation, the Federal Reserve will gain confidence to lower interest rates, which will boost the economy’s growth.
Persons: Donald Trump, normalizes, Trump, hasn’t Organizations: Trump, Federal Reserve
So the Fed can keep interest rates higher for longer to cool price rises — although the central bank also has room to cut should the labor market "unexpectedly weaken," Powell added. Related storyHigher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for anything from mortgages to credit cards — it encourages people to save rather than spend, which in theory, helps bring down prices. AdvertisementConversely, lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending — thus driving the economy when growth slows, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic when the Fed cut rates massively and pumped money into the system. But Reid thinks the excess money could be drained from the economy later this year, when money supply in the economy normalizes. AdvertisementDemand, supply chain snarls, and fiscal stimulus also contribute to inflationTo be sure, money supply isn't the only thing that contributes to inflation.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Reid, it's, Reid, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, Wilson Center, Business, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington, New York, Dudley
Read previewThis year, we took our 6-year-old to get her ears pierced. If our kids wanted them, we would take them to get their ears pierced. I got my ears pierced with a piercing gun at a mallI myself was not allowed to pierce my ears until I was 12. AdvertisementWhen my kids decided they wanted to get their ears pierced, I opted to take them to a professional piercing studio. AdvertisementNow, it's a place I go on a Monday night to get my daughter's ears pierced.
Persons: , Merle Norman, Professional Piercers, it's, Johns Hopkins, Rachel Dawkins, piercers Organizations: Service, Business, Professional
DETROIT – General Motors on Tuesday reported a 1.5% decline in first quarter U.S. vehicle sales compared to a year ago, as the overall auto industry normalizes after years of disruptions and volatile results. Retail sales to customers were up 6%, GM said. GM's sales are below expectations for the overall industry, which Cox Automotive forecast to be up 5.5% from a year earlier. Buick was the only GM brand to report a sales increase during the quarter, up 16.4% from a year earlier. GM reported sales of its full-size pickups totaled roughly 197,000 units, up 3.6% from a year earlier, during the first quarter – marking their best performance during that time since the first quarter of 2020.
Persons: Marissa West Organizations: DETROIT, Motors, U.S, Detroit automaker, GM, Cox, Buick, GMC, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GM North America
The Nike logo is displayed at a Nike Well Collective store on February 16, 2024 in Glendale, California. In North America, where demand has been unsteady, sales rose about 3% to $5.07 billion, compared with estimates of $4.75 billion, according to StreetAccount. In China, sales reached $2.08 billion, just below the $2.09 billion analysts had expected. In China, sales grew 5% to $2.08 billion, just below the $2.09 billion analysts had expected. Sales in Asia Pacific and Latin America rose 3% to $1.65 billion, below the $1.69 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.
Persons: Matthew Friend, Friend, Nike, Jordan, Brooks, Devin Booker, Jane Hali, Jessica Ramirez, She's, it's, They've, Ramirez Organizations: Nike, LSEG, Asia, StreetAccount, Associates, CNBC Locations: Glendale , California, China, North America, Europe, East, Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America
For those assigned female at birth, puberty blockers pause the development of breasts, wider hips or a menstrual period. Here’s what else you should know about puberty blockers and, if you’re a parent, whether they’re something your child needs. “Many kids have already completed puberty by the age of 13 or 14 … so we start blockers when puberty starts,” Forcier said. The one right way to do things is to listen to the patient.”How safe are puberty blockers? Some people worry that children who take puberty blockers may change their minds about their gender identity later in life.
Persons: , Michelle Forcier, it’s, Forcier, ” Forcier, , Melina Wald, Wald, Lauren Wilson, who’s, shouldn’t, Wilson, , ” Wilson, There’s, ” CNN’s Tara John Organizations: CNN, Health Service, Warren Alpert Medical, Brown University, Folx Health, Reuters, Health, Columbia University Medical, American Academy of Pediatrics, Columbia University Locations: Rhode Island, United States, Connecticut, New York, Montana, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Parents aren't always sure how to most effectively support their kids' development and help them sharpen their brains. When we're in our growth mindset, we believe that our capacity to learn is unlimited. 1 way to help kids succeed is to encourage them to access their growth mindset more of the time. Since storytelling is one of the most powerful ways to impart lessons, you can use stories to show them that's not the case and teach them about growth mindset. Helping kids tap into their growth mindset isn't just about encouraging them to hang in there or try harder.
Persons: aren't, who's, we're, they'd, they've, Organizations: Research
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s written testimony submitted to congressional lawmakers, released Wednesday. Recent economic data showed that price pressures persisted in January, leading investors to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts this year. Still, the timing and pace of rate cuts remains up in the air. Too soon to cut rates? In a recent interview with CNBC, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “we’ll see” if the Fed cuts rates in 2024.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell’s, inflation’s, , José Torres, “ Young, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, , “ I’m, Austan Goolsbee, we’re, Adriana Kugler Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Financial, , Interactive Brokers, CNN, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Richmond Fed, Congress, Chicago Fed, , Stanford University Locations: Washington
New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
Now, some economists think the Fed won’t cut interest rates at all this year. “The Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer,” he added. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. In some ways, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed undermined their efforts to actually cut the rates. Still, about half of investors are expecting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: , that’s, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, ” Robert Frick, , Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, Fed, National Federation of Independent, Investors, Financial Services, Senate Locations: New York, Richmond
Inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to an important gauge the Federal Reserve uses as it deliberates cutting interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate. The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. January's price increases reflected an ongoing shift to services over goods as the economy normalizes from the Covid pandemic disruptions. Thursday's BEA report also showed that consumers are continuing to dip into savings as prices stay elevated.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, PCE, Commerce Department's, Treasury, BEA, Labor Department, Dow
Away from the pitch, Promes has recently been convicted for drug trafficking by an Amsterdam court. “It is particularly bad that the suspect [Promes] normalizes and almost romanticizes the large-scale cocaine trade,” said Dutch prosecutors. Promes was convicted in absentia to six years in prison for drug trafficking. And Dutch soccer clubs seem to be taking notice. So there are indeed preventative measures taken by some of the clubs,” Nelen adds.
Persons: CNN — He’s, Quincy Promes, Promes, , , calculatedly, Hans Nelen, David Klein, Criminologist Hans Nelen, Nelen, “ He’s, hadn’t, Femke Halsema, Peter R, Vries, Dutchman David Endt, hasn’t, Endt, “ There’s Organizations: CNN, Ajax, Sevilla, Spartak Moscow, Russian Premier League, Appeal, Reuters, Maastricht University, Promes, Rotterdam –, Customs, National Alliance, Subversive Locations: Netherlands, Amsterdam, Brazil, Antwerp, Belgium, Russia, Russian, Dubai, isn’t, Rotterdam, Mexico, Columbia, Italy, Germany, Europe, Dutch
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt'll be a 'pivotal moment' when BOJ normalizes monetary policy, says portfolio managerKei Okamura, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, says it'll be a "pivotal moment for the Japanese economy [to] finally exit the last decades of deflation once and for all," but it'll be a "gradual process."
Persons: Kei Okamura, Neuberger Berman, it'll
For investors looking for high-quality income with the potential for significant total return, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be the answer. Fitting MBS into your portfolio In fact, Atluri believes agency MBS are more attractive than investment-grade corporate right now. In addition, agency mortgage-backed securities also trade defensively if the economic outlook were to worsen, he added. About 25% of core bond fund holdings are in mortgage-backed securities, according to Morningstar. "Mortgage-backed securities didn't do as well [as investment grade] last year," said Wei Li, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist.
Persons: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Jason Smith, Neuberger Berman, Smith, Michael Kessler, Kessler, Pramod, Atluri, Morningstar, Wei Li, Albion's Kessler Organizations: Agency MBS, U.S ., MBS, Mortgage News, Albion Financial Group, Federal Reserve, Capital Group, Fund of America, BlackRock
In the ad, FKA twigs looks directly at the camera. What’s clear, though, is that the Jeremy Allen White ads expose much more of his body than the FKA twigs ad exposes of hers. And the FKA twigs ad isn’t the only one in which a woman appears partly nude to advertise her Calvins. And in another, she’s wearing just socks and underwear with no top — again covering her breasts with her arms, but, like FKA twigs, also exposing the side of her leg, torso, arm and breast; unlike FKA twigs, she’s sitting rounded over, in a less stereotypically powerful, and more passive-appearing, position. The Calvin Klein company said its ad was from a partnership with FKA twigs, a confident and empowered woman.
Persons: Jill Filipovic, Calvin Klein, Jeremy Allen White, she’s, Josephine Baker, Eartha Kitt, Grace Jones, , Kendall Jenner, Jean Kilbourne, , wasn’t “, , Brooke Shields, Shields, White, Jenner Organizations: Twitter, CNN, New York Times, Authority, Standards Agency Locations: New York
But chasing lower quality stocks is not a great long-term strategy. That's why we look to buy high quality companies when they are put on sale. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Estee Lauder, hasn't, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, Nike, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Palo
Both children received help through telehealth therapy, a service that schools around the country are offering in response to soaring mental health struggles among American youth. The growth reflects a booming new business born from America’s youth mental health crisis, which has proven so lucrative that venture capitalists are funding a new crop of school teletherapy companies. For rural schools and lower-income students in particular, it has made therapy easier to access. Schools let students connect with online counselors during the school day or after hours from home. It now employs more than 300 clinicians providing teletherapy in over 150 school districts in 15 states.
Persons: Maria Ishoo’s, Valerie Aguirre’s, , Ishoo, , ” Ishoo, Trish Wilson, that’s, Wilson, Doreen Hogans, Kevin Dahill, Hazel, Josh Golomb, Prince George’s, Golomb, ” Golomb, Ashwin Vasan, ” Vasan, Fern Yoshida, Valerie Aguirre's, Aguirre, teletherapy, ” Aguirre, , Sharon Lurye Organizations: Associated Press, Schools, Hazel Health, Hazel, Los, Clark County, Dade, Press, Carnegie Corporation of New, AP Locations: California, Hawaii, Lancaster , California, Lancaster, Prince George’s County , Maryland, San Francisco, Los Angeles County, Clark, Las Vegas, Miami, Houston, New York City, New York, Maui, Carnegie Corporation of New York
US bond rally points to more affordable housing market
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Amina Niasse | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Growing confidence that U.S. bond yields have hit their peak and could head lower from here looks set to make the housing market more affordable in coming weeks. Some analysts think mortgage rates are positioned to come down even more quickly as the spread between conventional 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield, now near the largest since the 1980s, normalizes. "That's part of the reason why mortgage rates are so elevated - because of that uncertainty on rates and the volatility of rates," Kiefer said. Reuters GraphicsMeasures of bond market volatility have fallen from earlier this year, and as bond yields show signs of falling further, home affordability may be set to improve. The median mortgage payment has risen steadily since 2022, and is now 11% higher than the current period last year.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac's, Kiefer, Joel Kan, Kan, Amina Niasse, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, Reuters, Mortgage Bankers Association, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Treasuries
2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.
Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna
Federal Reserve policymakers will have to hold interest rates higher than they think over the long term, according to Goldman Sachs. Even after the central bank starts cutting, which markets expect to happen in 2024, Goldman economists expect the Fed to have to hold its policy rate higher than it previously had indicated. However, Goldman said a variety of factors are lining up to make both the Fed's target and those of other global central banks unrealistic. Factors pushing policy rates up include high government deficits , investment in AI and carbon emission reductions and productivity increases from generative AI. Moreover, the ability of developed economies to keep growing in the face of higher rates also could diminish the need for cuts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Market, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Australian, Fed Locations: Canadian
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 3 (Reuters) - Fortinet (FTNT.O) sank 23% and sparked a selloff in cybersecurity stocks with a dismal forecast that compounded fears of slowing client spending in an uncertain economy. Fortinet cut its annual revenue target on Thursday and said it expects current-quarter sales between $1.38 billion and $1.44 billion, below estimates of $1.50 billion, LSEG data showed. Growth is also slowing in some parts of the company's business as demand normalizes after two years of rapid growth during the pandemic. Overall, five brokerages downgraded the company and at least 14 analysts cut their price targets, pushing the median to $60, LSEG data showed. It currently trades at nearly 33 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, compared with Palo Alto's 44.6 and CrowdStrike's 54.5.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Raymond James, Keith Jensen, Samrhitha Organizations: REUTERS, Palo, Thomson Locations: Palo Alto, Bengaluru
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