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☆ US job growth slowing but labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Labor Department's employment report on Friday also showed job growth in May and June was revised lower, potentially suggesting demand for labor was slowing in the wake of the Federal Reserve's hefty interest rate hikes. "We haven't approached that fork in the road yet, but there is still a strong possibility that the labor market can rebalance without a recession." The job growth in June was the weakest since December 2020. With the labor market still tight, wages continued to rise at a solid clip. "The Fed will take comfort from moderating job growth, but will continue to fret about the tight labor market," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nick Bunker, Sal Guatieri, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Data, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Employment, Treasury, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto

☆ These industrials are powering ahead after a bleak start to the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

CAT YTD mountain Caterpillar (CAT) year-to-date performance. Caterpillar had a stand-out quarter , delivering big on an item that previously dinged its share price. The company's backlog – sales made, but not yet completed and recorded — increased to $30.8 billion, an increase of $2.2 billion year-over-year. EMR YTD mountain Emerson Electric (EMR) year-to-date performance. Emerson Electric posted a strong quarter , with better-than-expected profit margins and a raised full-year outlook for sales and earnings.

Persons: Industrials, Stanley Black, Decker, Rockwell, Stanley, Morgan Stanley, Linde, Sanjiv Lamba, Jim Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Jim, David Paul Morris Organizations: Club, Caterpillar, Emerson Electric, Honeywell, Linde, LIN, CAT, U.S, Emerson, Rockwell Automation, Revenue, Citi, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: North America, Wall, West Sacramento , California

☆ Caterpillar hits an all-time high, delivering big on an item that sank the stock last quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Club holding Caterpillar (CAT) delivered another strong quarter before the opening bell Tuesday, sparking a much-deserved rally of more than 8% to an all-time high above $287 per share. Revenue in the second quarter increased 22% year over year to $17.32 billion, exceeding estimates of $16.49 billion, according to Refinitiv. On the call, management called out strong demand in both North American residential and nonresidential construction. Fortunately, China represents less than 5% of sales with weakness being more than offset by strong demand elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region. Caterpillar dealers are independent businesses and they're not going to increase inventory levels if they aren't seeing strong demand on the near-term horizon.

Persons: —, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Caterpillar, Revenue, Financial, Construction Industries, . Resource Industries, Energy, Transportation, Machinery, Energy & Transportation, CNBC Locations: North America, America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Pacific, China, Harbor, Brooklyn , New York

☆ Businesses aren't acting like a recession is coming this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.

Persons: —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Moderate US economic growth expected in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 1.8% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.0% pace in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, likely remained a pillar of support, although the pace of growth slowed from the second quarter's robust 4.2% rate. Further contribution to GDP growth was expected from government spending. Inventory investment is a wild card, though most economists are penciling in a contribution to GDP growth of at least five tenths of a percentage point. Business sharply reduced inventory accumulation in the January-March quarter in anticipation of weaker domestic demand, slicing 2.14 percentage points off GDP growth that period.

Persons: Dean Maki, they're, Mike Skordeles, Joe Biden's, Sean Snaith, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Point72, Management, Labor Department, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Fed, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, Atlanta, United States, London

☆ The US economy is surging
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Real gross domestic product, or real GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 2.4%. That advance estimate for the second quarter beat the 1.8% increase expected. A recent GDP preview from Gregory Daco, chief economist of EY, also highlighted strength in the US economy and what it may mean. "Still, the economy continues to face significant headwinds from persistently elevated prices and costs, tightening credit conditions and rising interest rates. That's also much higher than the 3.2% seen in the second quarter of 2022.

Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gregory Daco, Daco, That's Organizations: Service, BEA, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank's, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US economic growth accelerates in second quarter; inflation retreats
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices rose at a 2.6% pace following a 4.2% rate of increase in the first quarter. Though the pace of growth slowed from the first quarter's robust 4.2% rate, it was enough to add more than a full percentage point to GDP growth. Government spending also contributed to GDP growth. A measure of domestic demand increased at a solid 2.3% rate after surging at a 3.2% pace in the first quarter.

Persons: Amira Karaoud, Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden's, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Gross, Reuters, Fed, Consumer, Labor Department, Conference, Treasury, Investment, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, United States

☆ The US economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington CNN —The US economy picked up steam in the second quarter despite punishing rate hikes and still-high inflation, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economic growth in the second quarter was driven by business investment, government purchases, inventory investment and consumer spending, though at a much weaker pace than in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, grew at just a 1.6% rate in the second quarter, down sharply from a 4.2% rate in the first three months of the year. Nonresidential business investment rose sharply to a 7.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from a 0.6% rate in the beginning of the year. The GDP report showed that spending on structure slowed to a 9.7% rate in the second quarter from a 15.8% rate in the prior one.

Persons: “, Lydia Boussour, ’, ” Shannon Seery, Seery, —, ”, Diane Swonk, Thursday’s, Carol Schleif, Jerome Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Employers, Wells, Investment Bank, Manufacturers, KPMG, restrengthens Investors, BMO Family Office, Investors, “ Locations: EY

Video The attack on the Moscow buildings closed traffic on at least two large avenues, according to state media. Credit Credit... Reuters Smoke was rising from the top floors of a high-rise building in a complex for Leroy Merlin, a French home improvement store. Russia has fired missiles and drones at cities across Ukraine nearly every day while Russian cities, including Moscow, have been spared the violence of the war. Then on May 31, the Russian defense ministry said at least eight drones had targeted the capital and surrounding region. Ukraine has started to publicly take credit for attacks in Crimea, the peninsula that Russia illegally annexed in 2014, arguing that the attacks are happening inside Ukrainian territory.

Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Sergei Sobyanin, Leroy Merlin, Volodymyr Zelensky, Shawn Paik, Jin Yu Young, Ivan Nechepurenko Organizations: ., Reuters, Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian National Defense Management Center, The New York Times, Credit, Military University, Central Military, Russian Armed Forces Locations: Moscow, Ukrainian, Ukraine, Komsomolsky, Russian, Moskva, Russia, Crimea

The attack is the closest Moscow has come to hitting the military alliance’s territory since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. The port strike came amid two drone attacks in central Moscow on Monday morning that Russian officials blamed on Ukrainian forces. At least two nonresidential buildings were hit about 4 a.m. local time, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin of Moscow said on the Telegram messaging app. He added that there had been no “serious damage or casualties.”Ukrainian and Romanian officials denounced the port strike, with President Klaus Iohannis of Romania condemning the attack on Ukrainian infrastructure close to his country’s borders. He said on Twitter that the “recent escalation poses serious risks to the security in the Black Sea,” as well as affecting Ukrainian grain shipments and global food security.

Persons: Sergei Sobyanin, Klaus Iohannis Organizations: Monday, NATO, Twitter Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Romanian, Ukrainian, United States, Reni, Romania, Moscow, ”

The Russian authorities said they destroyed two attack drones targeting central Moscow on Monday morning in what they called a strike by Ukrainian forces. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. At least two nonresidential buildings were targeted about 4 a.m. local time, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin of Moscow said on his Telegram account, adding that there was no “serious damage or casualties.” The Russian Ministry of Defense said earlier that it had used electronic defenses to disable the drones. The authorities blocked off part of Komsomolsky Prospect, an avenue that runs through one of the most upscale parts of central Moscow, after finding one of the drones there, state news media reported. One of the buildings is about a block away from the Russian National Defense Management Center, an imposing structure that is being used to conduct “centralized combat management of the Russian armed forces,” according to the Defense Ministry website.

Persons: Sergei Sobyanin Organizations: Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian National Defense Management Center, Defense Ministry Locations: Moscow, Ukrainian, Ukraine, Komsomolsky, Russian

Russian authorities said they destroyed two attack drones targeting Moscow on Monday morning in what they called a strike by Ukrainian forces. No one was injured, they said. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. The authorities closed off part of the Komsomolsky Prospect, an avenue that runs through central Moscow, and were investigating a drone found there, according to Tass, a state-run news media. Videos verified by The New York Times show damage in at least two locations near the Moskva River in the southern part of the city.

Persons: Sergei Sobyanin Organizations: Russian Ministry of Defense, Tass, The New York Times Locations: Moscow, Ukrainian, Ukraine, Moskva

☆ Wall Street Recession: Stock Market Crash Predictions Are Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street analysts and economists have always had a tendency to fall in love with their forecasts. This stubbornness helps explain why Wall Street is having an exceptionally hard time letting go of the idea that a recession is just around the corner. Despite the year-plus in which analysts have been arguing that a recession is imminent, none of the arguments behind the predictions stand up to scrutiny. Bear growlsOver the past year, Wall Street pessimists' reasons for an approaching recession have shifted. The drag from the US housing market is fading.

Persons: doomsayers, it's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Street, Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro

☆ US economic growth expanded much faster in the first quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose by an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from the second estimate of 1.3%. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output and the latest estimate incorporated data from the Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey. The revised trade flows contributed positively to GDP, with exports rising more than previously estimated while imports were revised down. And consumers might spend a bit more as the still try to recoup lost time or secure purchases they previously weren’t able to.

Persons: —, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, “, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey, Ernst &, Fed, “ Consumers, Comerica Bank, CNN Locations: Washington

☆ A rolling recession in the economy is turning into a rolling recovery that should help limit downside in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A rolling recession in the economy has turned into a rolling expansion, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. He said the resilience of underlying sectors of the economy should help limit stock market downside. Now, that rolling recession is turning into a rolling expansion across that should help boost the ongoing economic recovery and help limit any potential downside in the stock market, market veteran Ed Yardeni said in a Tuesday note. "What happens after a rolling recession? Perhaps a rolling expansion as the economic sectors that fell into a recession recover," he said.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Atlanta Fed, Atlanta Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ US construction spending rebounds in March on nonresidential structures
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. construction spending increased more than expected in March, boosted by investment in nonresidential structures, but single-family homebuilding remained depressed amid higher mortgage rates. The Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending rose 0.3% in March after declining 0.3% in February. Construction spending increased 3.8% on a year-on-year basis in March. Outlays on private non-residential structures like gas and oil well drilling surged 1.0% in March. Investment in state and local government construction projects increased 0.3%, while federal government construction spending declined 0.7%.

Caterpillar shares turn around CAT YTD mountain Caterpillar YTD Dow component Caterpillar delivered a blowout first quarter. Caterpillar revenue in Q1 increased 16.7% year over year to $15.86 billion, exceeding estimates of $15.26 billion, according to Refinitiv. Better-than-expected operating margin of 17% was so strong, due mostly to manufacturing costs that were not as high as expected as well as higher prices. Bottom Line on CAT This was a very strong quarter from Caterpillar as business continues to benefit from pricing power that outweighs costs. Even with oil down in the quarter, Caterpillar continues to see a lot of activity and strength in new engine sales to customers.

☆ U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter as signs build that the economy is slowing
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced for the period, rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The growth rate followed a fourth quarter in which GDP climbed 2.6%, part of a year that saw a 2.1% increase. High inflation and slow growth is sometimes described as "stagflation," which characterized the late 1970s and early '80s U.S. economy. The GDP report comes as the Federal Reserve is seeking to slow an economy burdened by inflation that had been running at its highest level in more than 40 years. In a policy tightening regime that began in March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate by 4.75 percentage points, taking it to the highest level in nearly 16 years.

☆ Construction Industry Has Work, Needs More Workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Bob Tita | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Worker shortages and waits for critical materials are contributing to construction delays. The construction industry has become a pillar of strength in the U.S. economy, despite contractors paying more for expenses and facing labor shortages. A robust nonresidential construction sector is offsetting home construction in the U.S. that has been weakening under the weight of higher interest rates. Contractors said spending on nonresidential projects hasn’t been diminished by higher borrowing costs that usually drive up the cost of financing construction work.

☆ Jim Cramer says these 7 currently undervalued 'franchise names' are stocks worth buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"Franchise names, doing well, undervalued in the portfolio," Jim said during the Club's Morning Meeting on Thursday. TJX 1Y mountain TJX Companies' 12-month stock performance. CAT 1Y mountain Caterpillar's 12-month stock performance. SBUX 1Y mountain Starbucks' 12-month stock performance. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims still low; corporate profits fall in Q4
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended March 25, the Labor Department said. Claims have remained very low, bouncing around in a tight range despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. The so-called continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for the unemployment rate for March. Continuing claims increased moderately between the February and March survey weeks. The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in February.

☆ JPMorgan says commercial real estate decline is intensifying. Beware these exposed stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As commercial real estate comes under even greater pressure, investors should steer clear of these stocks that are overexposed to the sector, JPMorgan said. Commercial real estate is already facing more challenges this year than other parts of real estate, such as retail or lodging. Last year, office real estate dropped 37.6%, also on a total return basis. Given this, JPMorgan screened for a basket of stocks with direct and indirect exposure to U.S. commercial real estate. JPMorgan also identified pharmacy store chains Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health as having direct exposure to any slowdown in commercial real estate.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Pinterest, First Citizens, Caterpillar & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pinterest — Pinterest gained 4.3% after UBS upgraded the social media stock to buy and said shares could pop more than 25% as the company improves its advertising strategy. First Republic , PacWest — Regional bank stocks were moving higher on Monday following a report from Bloomberg News that U.S. authorities were considering expanding government support for banks to provide additional liquidity. Shares of First Republic jumped 23% in premarket trading, while PacWest Bancorp rose about 9%, and Western Alliance gained 5%. KeyCorp — KeyCorp gained 6.8% after Citi upgraded the stock to buy from neutral. Corning — Shares advanced 2.3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded Corning to buy from hold.

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Tesla, Amazon, First Republic, Roku, Walmart & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Here are Monday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Susquehanna upgrades Roku to positive from neutral Susquehanna said it sees an attractive risk/reward for the stock. Citi upgrades KeyCorp and M & T Bank to buy from neutral Citi upgraded several regional banks on Monday and said the risk/reward looks compelling. Morgan Stanley reiterates Amazon as overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees 50% upside for shares of the e-commerce giant. Morgan Stanley reiterates Walmart as overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees an attractive risk/reward heading into the company's investment community meeting on April 4. Morgan Stanley moves First Republic to no rating Morgan Stanley removed its estimates and ratings on the stock due to too much uncertainty.

☆ Salesforce, Caterpillar and Disney are in the news. Here's our take on the headlines
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Meanwhile, analysts who cover Caterpillar (CAT) put out fresh research that cuts against our own thinking, and layoffs will soon begin at Disney (DIS). The Salesforce co-founder echoed the we-can-learn-from-everybody philosophy he laid out on March 1 in an interview with Jim Cramer. Salesforce shares, which rose modestly Monday, has surged more than 44% this year, the third-best performing Club stock behind Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META). Baird turns bearish on CAT CAT 1Y mountain Caterpillar's 12-month stock performance. "It's very hard to get in and out of CAT," Jim said Monday.

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