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Our listeners have lots of questions about polling. At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination. But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well. Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

Persons: Nate Cohn Organizations: Super, New York Times

Nevada is doing things differently this year. Or at least, it tried to. The first presidential nominating contest in the west takes place on Tuesday — and on Thursday. But that’s not what state officials were hoping would happen when they decided to move from a caucus to a primary in 2021.

Persons: that’s Locations: Nevada

President Biden has started to switch gears into campaign mode. On the trail, he’s particularly focused on South Carolina, which holds the first official Democratic primary contest on Saturday. And one of his first campaign events of the year took him to Emanuel A.M.E. Church in Charleston, for a speech that addressed the dangers of white supremacy. But a few minutes into the speech, he was interrupted by protesters calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. Today: The activists drowning out the president at campaign events.

Persons: Biden, Emanuel A.M.E, Abdullah Hammoud Organizations: Democratic, Hamas Locations: South Carolina, Charleston, Gaza, Israel, Dearborn, Mich

Caitlin O’Keefe and Rachel Dry , Rachel Quester, Paige Cowett andListen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicInside the Republican Party, a class war is playing out between the pro-Trump base, which is ready for the nomination fight to be over, and the anti-Trump donor class, which thinks it’s just getting started. Astead Herndon, a political correspondent for The Times and the host of “The Run-Up,” explains the clash.

Persons: Caitlin O’Keefe, Rachel Dry, Rachel Quester, Paige Cowett, it’s, Astead Herndon, ” Organizations: Spotify, Republican Party, Trump, The Times

Donald Trump’s victory over Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary made two things clear: The MAGA wing of the G.O.P. is ready for his coronation, while anti-Trump Republicans believe the race is far from over. From inside Trump’s victory party on Tuesday night, we hear from supporters of the former president and from the stars of his orbit, who see themselves as being on the verge of “obliterating the establishment.” And from Tim Draper, a billionaire venture capitalist who is backing Haley. About ‘The Run-Up’“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. New episodes on Thursdays.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Nikki Haley, Tim Draper, Haley, Herndon Organizations: Trump Republicans, New York Times Locations: New Hampshire

On Sunday, after a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses and with just two days to go before the New Hampshire primary, Ron DeSantis ended his campaign for president. His decision made it official: The race for the Republican nomination is now a head-to-head contest between two wildly different candidates, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump. And now, the famously independent New Hampshire voters are going to determine how serious a contest it is. First, how Haley’s recent change in tone and sharpening attacks on Trump will play with independents. And third, what the Democrats are up to — since there’s a contest here on that side too.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Trump, there’s Organizations: New, Republican, New Hampshire voters, Trump Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire

And I think he’s right there with Reagan as far as his track record, what he did overall throughout his presidency. I think it really does set her up well as you do move on into some other states. nick corasanitiSo New Hampshire has a long history of really just going against Iowa, right? Those independents is where the question of the final results really, really come in. They were economic voters, taxation voters, pro-gun voters, not any of those kind of evangelical issues that we heard in Iowa.

Persons: I’m, We’ve, I’m Astead, ”, Iowans, Donald Trump, Trump, Nikki ”, Haley, it’s, Ames, Harrison Barnes, Doug McDermott, Troy Hill, Nikki Haley, Vivek, — he’s, wouldn’t, “, aren’t, Reagan, DeSantis, Nikki, Ramaswamy, Ron, he’s, Biden, Ron DeSantis, —, I’ve, who’s, It’s, hasn’t, caucusing, Roe, Astead Herndon, Aaron, it’s Trump, They’re, Mike Pence, you’ll, we’re, Anna, Teresa didn’t, Teresa, haven’t, Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump’s, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nick Corasaniti, astead herndon, Nick, Trump’s, astead, There’s, they’re, Rand Paul, herndon, Bill Clinton, — astead herndon Isn’t, John McCain, George W, Bush, isn’t, They’ve, unquote, astead herndon It’s, He’s, Chris Christie, Christie, that’s, “ Trump, it’ll, she’s, I’d Organizations: Trump, The New York Times, Republican, CNN, Iowa, America, Iowa State University, NBA, Republicans, Republican Party, Associated Press, NBC, CBS, Iowa Republican, New, astead herndon, New Hampshire, Democrat, New Hampshire Republican, Prosperity Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, I’m Astead Herndon, , Iowa, Ames , Iowa, Des Moines, Trump, Troy, Ukraine, Congo, , New Hampshire, COVID, Indiana, Ames, “, Hampshire, astead herndon, Portsmouth

Ron DeSantis of Florida refocused his campaign strategy to be all-in on Iowa, and right in the midst of debilitating winter weather, the Iowa caucuses are upon us. And “The Run-Up” has everything you need to know to understand what might happen today — and what it will mean for the race going forward. Going into the caucus, Mr. Trump has a dominant polling lead. Iowa voters tend to care more about candidates who can speak more to small-town and religious values. The state’s evangelical leaders have largely backed Mr. DeSantis, but evangelical voters themselves — including people coming out to Trump events in freezing temperatures in the last week — have largely backed Mr. Trump.

Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Trump, DeSantis Organizations: Gov, Iowa, Trump Locations: Florida, Iowa

☆ How Tunnel Girl's DIY storm shelter took over TikTok — then turned people against her
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-04 | by ( Sirena Bergman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

By August 2023, Kala referred to her project as an "underground tunnel system." They did not comment further regarding whether the home in question was linked to the TikTok account. However, FOX5 reported receiving a tip identifying the home, which two residents confirmed matched the property in Kala's videos. But on December 30, Bogado posted a TikTok video disputing this account. When contacted via TikTok direct message, Kala declined to comment for this article.

Persons: —, Kala, TikTokers, it's, she'd, FOX5, Bogado, who's, Kala's, Derek Organizations: Service, Business, NBC News, FOX, The Center, Investigative, NBC, BI Locations: Washington, DC, Herndon , Virginia, Herndon, Kala's, Central America

Evan McPherson's 48-yard field goal in overtime was the difference and ended a three-game losing streak on the season and a nine-game road skid on MNF. It ended an otherwise stellar night for Lawrence, who completed 22 of 29 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Browning completed 32 of 37 passes and directed the overtime drive that set up McPherson's field goal. Beathard put the Jaguars in position for Brandon McManus’ 40-yard field goal with 26 seconds remaining in regulation. “It should have been a game-winning field goal,” said Jaguars coach Doug Pederson, pointing to the 48-yarder McManus missed early in the fourth.

Persons: — Jake Browning, Browning, Zac Taylor, Evan McPherson's, Trevor Lawrence, Walker Little, Lawrence, Joe Burrow, McPherson, Beathard, Brandon McManus ’, ”, Doug Pederson, McManus, Ja'Marr Chase, “, Taylor, ” Joe Mixon, Chase Brown, Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Josh Allen, Allen, ” Taylor, Mixon's, Orlando Brown, Brown, HIGGINS, Tee Higgins, Higgins, TAYLOR BRO, Sherwood Taylor, Christian Kirk, Tre Herndon, Foley Fatukasi, Andre Cisco, ___ Organizations: Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Bengals, Jaguars, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Press, Kansas State, NEXT, Indianapolis, Sunday Locations: JACKSONVILLE, Fla, Florida, banged, Lawrence, Kansas, Norman , Oklahoma, Cleveland

The former president’s legal status is one of the biggest wild cards heading into 2024. Even as he dominates the Republican primary and his party, Trump has been indicted on 91 felony charges, across four criminal cases in state and federal courts. We spent a day talking to our colleagues in The Times’s newsroom, trying to get answers to questions it’s surreal to even be asking. Among them: Are Republicans coalescing around a man who may soon be a convicted felon? And how much will Trump’s legal troubles collide with an election cycle that is unlike any we’ve seen before?

Persons: Trump Organizations: Republican, coalescing

☆ A group of Black voters recently sounded off on Biden, Trump, and their feelings about Democrats. One voter said the party 'has forgot about the Black male.'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

An a episode of NYT's "The Run-Up," Black voters discussed Biden, Trump, and the Democratic Party. Several Black voters expressed varying degrees of disappointment with the administration. One Black voter told The Times he perceives Democrats as empowering Black women over Black men. Many voters in group told Herndon that they largely backed Democrats due to a GOP agenda which they find intolerable. AdvertisementA Black male in the group, who said that the GOP espoused values of entrepreneurship that might attract some Black men to Trump next year, also spoke openly of how he felt that Democrats empowered Black women at the expense of Black men.

Persons: Trump, —, Joe Biden's, Biden, Donald Trump, Herndon, Kamala Harris, we've, Barack, Obama, Harris, they're Organizations: Biden, Democratic Party, Times, Service, Democratic, Black, New York Times, Trump, White, GOP Locations: Georgia , Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Siena, Black

“The Run-Up” is in a particularly good position to try and answer those questions. We convened a focus group — a very special, one-time only focus group in the childhood home of Astead W. Herndon, who hosts “The Run-Up.”For the wide-ranging discussion, he gathered family members, parishioners from his father’s church, community members and people he grew up with, all of whom largely leaned Democratic, but were clear about the ways in which the party had let them down. The conversations were anchored in questions about Black voters and the Democratic Party, but also covered the apparent appeal of Mr. Trump to Black men specifically.

Persons: Herndon, Trump Organizations: Democratic, Democratic Party

Vice President Kamala Harris is crucial to the Biden campaign’s strategy for winning over a skeptical Democratic base. Her central role — combined with President Joe Biden’s advanced age — means that certain questions have taken on renewed importance. Specifically: What does Ms. Harris believe, and what kind of president would she be? The question of what Ms. Harris believes is one Astead returned to in August. That’s when he sat with the vice president for a wide-ranging interview in Chicago, conducted as part of the reporting for a New York Times Magazine cover story on Ms. Harris.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, —, Joe Biden’s, Harris, Herndon, That’s Organizations: Democratic, New York Times Magazine Locations: Chicago

☆ Demonstrators in Washington back Israel, denounce antisemitism
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jonathan Landay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/4] Israeli Americans and supporters of Israel gather in solidarity with Israel and protest against antisemitism, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, during a rally on the National Mall in Washington, U.S, November 14, 2023. REUTERS/Leah Millis Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Washington on Tuesday for a "March for Israel" to show solidarity with Israel in its war with Hamas and condemn rising antisemitism. We will fight for Israel. Underscoring support in the U.S. Congress for Israel, busloads of senators and members of the House of Representatives attended the pro-Israel rally. Those perpetrating the poison of antisemitism and bigotry around the world are trying to scare us," Schumer said.

Persons: Israel, Leah Millis, Marco Abbou, Israel —, ” Natan Sharansky, We'll, Sharansky, ”, Ariel Ben, Chitrit, Biden, busloads, Charles Schumer, Schumer, Erica Taxin, “ didn’t, Isaac Herzog, Herzog, Neturei, Jonathan Landay, Patricia Zengerle, Simon Lewis, Daphne Psaledakis, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Palestinian, Hamas, REUTERS, Rights, Israel, Jewish Agency, Soviet Union, U.S ., U.S, Congress, Representatives, Democratic, Authorities, Arms, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Israel, Washington , U.S, Washington, U.S, Hackensack , New Jersey, Gaza, United States, Soviet, rearm, Herndon , Virginia, Philadelphia, America

☆ A modern etiquette guide for group chats
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Michael Venutolo-Mantovani | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

A recent poll of 1,005 US adults found the average American spends 26 minutes a day reading and responding to group chats. For us to survive and thrive as humans, it's time to agree on the Definitive Etiquette of the Group Chat. The ultimate appeal of group chats — their necessity, really — is that they've become the only social media that's actually social. Group chats can become overwhelming, of course, especially as they creep into other apps and especially as they often duplicate participants. Don't talk about the group chat outside the group chat.

Persons: who's, Sam Bankman, Fried, siphoning, Emily Post, they've, Mark Zuckerberg, Twitter, Hua Hsu, e Organizations: Bank, Democratic, Street, Wall, Mets, New York Giants, Facebook, Adidas, Nazi, Yorker Locations: Bankman, Silicon, Indonesia, American, Business, Politics, Netherlands, Rome, Tucson, le

Over the course of a few days this week, we got two pretty remarkable data points for the 2024 election. In Virginia, Democrats took control of the state legislature, flipping the House of Delegates and preserving control of the Senate. Just a few days earlier, though, The New York Times and Siena College released a new poll of battleground states. Former President Donald J. Trump was leading President Biden in five out of the six states where voters were surveyed. What to make of bad news for the president followed by good news for his party just a few days later?

Persons: Andy Beshear, Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: Gov, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Kentucky, In Ohio, State, In Virginia

Clallam County in Washington State is far from Washington, D.C. — almost as far as you can go without leaving the continental United States. It’s right on the border with Canada. It’s home to about 78,000 people and Olympic National Park. It’s home to Forks, perhaps best known as the setting of Stephenie Meyer’s “Twilight” series. It’s also the home of a particular piece of political trivia.

Persons: —, Stephenie Meyer’s, It’s Organizations: Washington , D.C, Olympic Locations: Clallam County, Washington State, Washington ,, United States, Canada, Forks

☆ The Run-Up Returns, Every Week Through Election Day
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( The Run-Up | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

We’re just about a year away from Election Day 2024. In a race in which the incumbent Democratic president is running for re-election and the leading Republican candidate is a former president himself, it can be easy to write off this presidential election as one we’ve seen before. It does seem likely that the country is heading toward the same matchup voters faced in 2020. And why it demands a different kind of political reporting. “The Run-Up” and its host, Astead W. Herndon, will be covering this election from the usual early voting states and candidate events.

Persons: Herndon Organizations: Democratic, Republican Locations: Iowa

☆ A prominent Black voting rights activist says there are 'saboteurs' within the Democratic Party who don't want Kamala Harris to succeed, arguing they are worried about her 'outshining' Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Kamala Harris' tenure as vice president has been marked by a series of high-profile ups and downs. Voting rights activist LaTosha Brown told The New York Times Magazine she feels some Democrats have undermined the VP. AdvertisementAdvertisement"I think there have been saboteurs within the administration," Brown told The Times' Astead W. Herndon. The vice president has also been an in-demand speaker among college students — especially at historically Black colleges and universities. Dunn also shut down any rumors that Harris might be replaced as Biden's running mate next year.

Persons: Kamala Harris, LaTosha Brown, Anita Dunn, Harris, —, Barack Obama, Obama, Joe Biden, Brown, Kamala outshining Biden, Roe, Wade, Biden, hasn't, Brown —, Raphael Warnock, Jon Ossoff, Sen, Elizabeth Warren of, Lester Holt —, she's, Dunn Organizations: The New York Times Magazine, White House, Service, Black, New York Times Magazine, Times, MSNBC, Democratic Party, Biden, Democratic, NBC News Locations: California, Washington, Herndon, Georgia, Sens, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mexico

☆ TikTok is paying a small army of creator coaches to help influencers make money from livestreams
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Marta Biino | Dan Whateley | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

TikTok creators make money from livestreams by receiving virtual items from fans that can be converted into real money. Dozens of agencies have joined the TikTok Live partner program, two sources told Insider. How agents are helping creators boost livestream performanceUnsurprisingly, there is no single growth strategy that applies to all TikTok Live creators. "What's great about TikTok Live is that we get to see the data in real-time," Herndon said. On top of the agency program, TikTok also offers an "accelerator program" for individual creators who have already found success with livestreams to help them scale further.

Persons: TikTok, Salome Khazaradze, Khazaradze, Jack Healy, Bill Herndon, Herndon, Joseph Sottile, livestreams Organizations: Google, TikTok Spartans, ATRX Agency Locations: Europe

☆ US colleges refashion student essay prompts after ban on affirmative action
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Sharon Bernstein | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. colleges are set to release their essay prompts on Tuesday when the common application used by many schools becomes public for the upcoming admissions cycle. Many high school counselors are uncertain how students should handle questions of race and identity in their essays, Perez said. They also are wary that if they mention race in student recommendations, they will be inviting scrutiny or violating the court's order. "The general feeling with school counselors right now is mostly anxiety," Perez said. Private admissions counselors have already started working with students of color on essays that discuss their cultural heritage.

Persons: upending, John Roberts, Timothy Fields, Kevin McKenna, Amin Abdul, Malik Gonzalez, Angel Perez, Perez, Shereem Herndon, Brown, Fields, Sharon Bernstein, Colleen Jenkins, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Emory University, Emory, U.S, Supreme, Sarah Lawrence College, Reuters, Wesleyan University, National Association for College, College, Connecticut, Thomson Locations: Atlanta, California, Michigan, Yonkers , New York, Connecticut, New York

☆ It's about to get easier for homeowners in Denver to build tiny homes in their backyards
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Denver's housing shortage has reached crisis proportions. When the law goes into place on Wednesday, homeowners will be allowed to build ADUs big enough to house a family. Courtesy of AboduSince 2018, more than 60,000 new units have been approved throughout the Golden State, which has an estimated housing shortage of 2 million. She also serves as the Director of Planning at the Denver Housing Authority. Keeping families togetherAlonso Carrillo-Muñoz, a Spanish-speaker, who has lived in the West Denver area for over 20 years, was a part of the WDRC's ADU pilot program, per WDRC.

Persons: —, They'll, Chris Herndon, Renee Martinez, Stone, WDRC, Alonso Carrillo, Jon Paciaroni, Miriam Carillo Organizations: Service, City, Denver, Golden State, West Denver Renaissance, Denver Housing Authority Locations: California, High City, City of Denver, Sonoma ., Golden, Denver, West Denver, Spanish, . Denver, FirstBank

☆ How U.C. Berkeley tried to buoy enrollment of Black students without affirmative action
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Sharon Bernstein | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

[1/5] Prospective students tour the University of California, Berkeley campus before beginning of the new semester, in Berkeley, California, U.S., June 8, 2023. Black student enrollment across the system - which hovered at 3 or 4% for decades after the affirmative action ban - last year rose to 5%. While other campuses in the system have struggled to enroll Black students, the issue has been particularly painful at Berkeley, which under affirmative action had exceeded the system overall in enrollment of Black students. For one, factors such as economics and a school's location are no longer as useful for recruiting Black students, Ogundele said. Last fall, Black students made up 7% of UCLA's freshman class, the same as before affirmative action was banned.

Persons: Carlos Barria, James Bennett, I've, Bennett, Femi, Berkeley's, we've, Ogundele, Tyler Mahomes, didn't, Allexys Cornejo, Judith Painter, Painter, powell, Berkeley's Othering, Shereem Herndon, Brown, They're, Sharon Bernstein, Colleen Jenkins, Diane Craft Organizations: University of California, REUTERS, U.S, Supreme, Berkeley, U.S . News, Best Global Universities, UCLA, Multicultural Resource Center, Stanford, Harvard, Yale, Emory University, College, Thomson Locations: Berkeley, Berkeley , California, U.S, BERKELEY, California, Stanford, Puerto Rican, Los Angeles, U.C, Sacramento, Cambodian, Black, Atlanta

☆ Trump and the Fun Factor
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Astead W. Herndon | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges in New York City two months ago, I tried to make sense of the political fallout with my colleague Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst. After poring over traditional markers about fund-raising and poll numbers, Nate mentioned another standard I’ve been thinking about over the past few days: Do Trump’s legal challenges make him more (or less) fun? But after Trump’s arraignment in federal court in Miami this week, I’m reminded of its importance. Nate wasn’t calling Trump fun as a self-evident fact, but rather identifying a set of voters who are attracted to showmanship and celebrity, are distinct from Trump’s base and follow politics only casually, if at all. Perhaps you have a friend who doesn’t care about politics, but can’t believe Trump said THAT.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nate Cohn, Nate, I’m, Nate wasn’t, Trump, Marco ” Rubio, “ Lyin, Ted ” Cruz Organizations: New York City, Democracy Fund Locations: New York, Miami

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