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☆ Save like a boomer: Younger generations have a chance to make high interest rates work for them
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interest rates on traditionally "safer" investments like Treasury bonds are high. Economist Thomas Hogan of the American Institute for Economic Research recently pointed out this upside to the interest rates and how it is helping Americans. "Now, interest rates on US Treasury bonds are at the highest in more than a decade, giving savers a safe, stable place to store their money." If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. However, to the extent that strength in the economy is behind the increase in long-term interest rates, the FOMC may need to do more."

Persons: —, Thomas Hogan, Hogan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Dietsch, Tim Hayes, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Service, Treasury, American Institute for Economic Research, Federal, NDR, U.S, Supreme, Dallas Locations: Israel

☆ Can China's economy reverse a sluggish 2023 in the last quarter? Here's what to watch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In 2020, Beijing tried to rein in real estate developers' high reliance on debt with new restrictions on financing. "The decline in the real estate sector was the result of the government's intentional measures to correct the bubbles in the market," Yao said. But he and other economists mostly don't expect real estate to return to significant growth in the future. Morgan StanleyThis week, worries about China's real estate sector persisted with highly indebted Evergrande running into more liquidity problems — along with reports Wednesday its chairman has been put under surveillance. This month, weekly data from Nomura indicate the real estate sales slump has moderated.

Persons: Stringer, Yao Yang, Yao, Dan Wang, Morgan Stanley, Clifford Lau, William Blair, China's, Robin Xing, there's, Bruce Pang, Pang doesn't Organizations: Afp, Getty, National School of Development, Peking University, Hang, China Center for Economic Research, Communist Party, Financial Work, Communist Party of, Nomura, CNBC Locations: Chongqing, China, BEIJING, Covid, Beijing, Shanghai, Hang Seng China, Communist Party of China, JLL

☆ German GDP expected to contract by 0.6% this year, economic institutes say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Business sentiment has recently deteriorated again and overall, the indicators suggest that production fell noticeably in the third quarter of 2023, the economic institutes said. GDP is expected to shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter, following stagnation in the second quarter. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. In the following years, a decreasing potential growth rate due to the shrinking labour force will become more and more apparent, the economic institutes said. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halley Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Oliver Holtemoeller, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Ifo Institute, Halley Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

Growth of 0.3% had been expected in the institutes' spring forecasts. The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts are to be presented in Berlin on Thursday. The economics ministry usually updates its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Persons: Annegret, Christian Kraemer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Rachel Armstrong, Kirsti Knolle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ifo Institute, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany

The Viking Star cruise ship is moored at Greenwich with the City of London financial district in the distance, in London, Britain, August 29, 2023. It is absolutely the time for action over words," Alasdair Haynes, CEO of Aquis Exchange, a share trading platform, and chair of financial industry body TheCityUK's Business Council, told Reuters. The main problem for trade bodies is the vast scope of Britain's financial services industry, with each sub-sector and TheCityUK presenting their own reform priorities and ideas, often overlapping. In the meantime, top financial sector executives running global teams of bankers and traders are increasingly bewildered by Britain's inability to make faster progress on a matter of such economic significance. ELECTION LOOMINGSome senior financial industry sources say politics may hamper the City's reform agenda even further, with a general election expected next year.

Persons: Kevin Coombs, Alasdair Haynes, Jeremy Hunt, Nicholas Lyons, TheCityUK, ” Samuel Gregg, Richard Gardner, Huw Jones, Sinead Cruise, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Viking, City, REUTERS, London’s, Mayor, European Union, Aquis, Business, Reuters, Finance, stoke, of, Arm Holdings, Labour, Conservative, American Institute for Economic Research, Investment Funds Association, EU, Thomson Locations: Greenwich, London, Britain, Europe, Asia, United States, Edinburgh, of London, New York, Amsterdam, City, France

☆ Is Arm Holdings a smart way to play the booming AI market? Experts break down 2023's biggest IPO, and why you should invest with caution.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Arm Holdings, the British semiconductor and software maker, is set to go public on Thursday in the biggest initial public offering of 2023. This isn't the first time Arm shares have been available to the public. In its F-1 filing to go public, Arm said its CPUs "run the vast majority of the world's software." That would make Arm stock impressively expensive compared to peers in the tech sector. That said, while Arm shares are looking expensive today, if the company lives up to its high expectations, then the price begins to look more reasonable.

Persons: SoftBank, Arm, it's, Seth Farbman, ARM's, Farbman, Matt Bryson, he's, Bryson, Peter C, Earle, We've, It's Organizations: Arm Holdings, Bank of America, SoftBank, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, ARM, Apple, Google, AMD, Samsung, VStock, Intel, Wedbush Securities, American Institute for Economic Research, IPOs, China Arm's Locations: China

That has put pressure on risky EM currencies, echoing the dynamics observed last year when the Fed began raising rates. In the Sept. 1-6 poll, almost all beaten-down emerging market currencies were forecast to move little, or trade modestly higher against the dollar in a year, with some making small gains in three months. The underperformance of China has probably been the biggest story holding back EM currencies." Earlier this year, many analysts expected China's reopening to boost the yuan and other EM currencies, especially those exporting commodities to the world's second-largest economy, but this scenario did not unfold as anticipated. Through the end of this year, we believe most EM Asia currencies can weaken," said Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Wells Fargo.

Persons: Chris Turner, Nick Bennenbroek, Hugo Pienaar, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Treasury, greenback, Fed, ING, Reserve Bank of India, Korean, Bureau for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, JOHANNESBURG, China, Asia, Wells Fargo, Russian, South Africa, Bengaluru

☆ Explainer: More nuclear challenges await Japan after Fukushima water release
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Kiyoshi Takenaka | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Activists attend a protest against Japan's plan to release treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean, at the national assembly in Seoul, South Korea, August 24, 2023. MOLTEN FUEL REMOVALTepco has described the effort to remove highly radioactive fuel debris from reactor cores as an "unprecedented and difficult challenge never attempted anywhere in the world". That was the worst nuclear plant accident before the 1986 Chornobyl tragedy in Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union. About 12.1 trillion yen had been spent on such activities by March 2022, Japan's audit panel, which reviews government expenditures, has said. That represents an expenditure of more than half of the government's estimate, even before really tough tasks such as fuel debris retrieval have begun, in turns raising concerns about cost overruns.

Persons: Kim Hong, Kiyoshi Takenaka, Katya Golubkova, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Tokyo Electric Power Co, Tepco, U.S, Japan, Japan Center for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Japan, Pennsylvania, Ukraine, Soviet Union, Fukushima

☆ Why some are calling the German economy 'the sick man of Europe'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.

Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, ”, Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France

Moscow's actions have deprived many foreign investors of the ability to trade in Russian securities, including depositary receipts. Investors are worried about future copycat actions by other governments who might look to reduce foreign influence over their leading companies. Depositary receipts, or DRs, are certificates issued by a bank representing shares in a foreign company traded on a local stock exchange. But events in Russia have forced many investors to write down the value of depositary receipts of Russian companies to zero, given their inability to trade them. CONSEQUENCESLoss of confidence in DRs could drain needed foreign capital from firms in emerging economies, for instance.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Peter C, Earle, Christopher Day, Michael Ashley Schulman, Goldman Sachs, III, Detsky Mir, Goldman, Otkrytie, Schulman, Grzegorz Drozdz, Malcolm Dorson, Sinead Cruise, Carolina Mandl, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Global, American Institute for Economic Research, Reuters, Citigroup, Companies, Citi ., Reuters Graphics, DR, Investors, Doliver Advisors, Running, Capital Advisors, Conotoxia, Russian, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Brazil, China, Russia, GDR, GDRs, United States, Britain, London, Carolina, New York

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoAug 4 (Reuters) - Shares of Tupperware Brands (TUP.N) surged 44% on Friday, after the kitchen storage container maker finalized a debt restructuring deal as it attempts a turnaround of its business, reinvigorating retail investors' interest in the company. It was the seventh most traded stock by retail investors at 10:00 a.m. The share gains were reminiscent of eye watering "meme stocks" rallies, where retail investors coordinate on social media and typically focus their speculative bets on companies that were financially struggling or had high short interest. Tupperware was the second most actively traded single stock by retail traders over the past week, according to a J.P.Morgan note.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tupperware, Bartosz, stocktwits.com, Peter Earle, Medha Singh, Savyata Mishra, Krishna Chandra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Tupperware Brands, American Institute for Economic Research, American, Corp, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Florida, Bengaluru

"The culture wars are coming to UK businesses, including the financial sector," said Andre Spicer, dean of City University's Bayes Business School. It also cited "risk factors including... controversial public statements which were felt to conflict with the bank's purpose". However, data from watchdog the Financial Ombudsman Service showed complaints about account closures represented a tiny fraction of a bank's overall customer base. Experts say other banks will now be scrambling to ensure their own policies and committees are behaving appropriately, to avoid further scandals. The CEO of Britain's biggest domestic bank Lloyds said on Wednesday the bank's own policies did not include looking at customers' political or personal beliefs.

Persons: Nigel Farage, Coutts, Andre Spicer, Howard Davies, Alison Rose, Rose, Peter Flavel, Charles Dickens, Queen Elizabeth II, Spicer, Harriet Baldwin, Bill Winters, Samuel Gregg, Banks, Gregg, University's Spicer, Rupert Younger, ", Sinead Cruise, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Brexit Party, NatWest, Bayes Business School, Coutts, Treasury, Bank of England, BBC, Standard Chartered, Farage, American Institute for Economic Research, Facebook, Financial, Service, Barclays, Lloyds, Centre, Oxford University's Said Business School, Thomson Locations: America

☆ Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Olena Harmash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

In previous refugee crises, for example in Syria, refugees' desire to return home has faded with time, UNHCR studies show. Conscription-aged men are restricted from leaving Ukraine, so working-aged women, and children, make up the majority of refugees. Ukraine's population problem goes beyond millions of refugees. A census in 2001 - the country's only so far - recorded a population of 48.5 million. Demographer Libanova estimated the population at between 28 million and 34 million at the start of 2023 in parts of the country controlled by Kyiv.

Persons: Korzh, Volodymyr Kostiuk, Kostiuk, It's, Dmytro Tsygankov, Ella Libanova, Libanova, Ksenia Karpenko, Karpenko, Corina Rodriguez, Catarina Demony, Mike Collett, White, Frank Jack Daniel Our Organizations: United Nations, UNHCR, Kyiv, for Economic Research, Political, for Economic, MEN, National Academy of Science, European Commission's, Research, The, Economic Strategy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KYIV, Europe, Kyiv, Portugal, Ukraine, Lagoa, Syria, Ukrainian, Moscow, Russia, Crimea, Belarus, Russian, Tarragona, Spain, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon

☆ German Government Slashes Spending, Except on the Military
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Melissa Eddy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Why It Matters: Germany has long neglected military spending. Despite intense pressure from the United States, Germany last spent 2 percent of its G.D.P. on defense in 1991, a year after the reunification of the former East and West German nations, according to statistics from the World Bank. The United States is using incentives, including tax breaks, to lure businesses in the green energy and technology sectors. “Germany is increasingly falling behind when it comes to investment and location decisions,” said Tanja Gönner, general director of the German Federation of Industries.

Persons: Marcel Fratzscher, Lindner, ”, Tanja Gönner Organizations: World Bank, German Institute for Economic Research, German Federation of Industries Locations: Germany, United States, West, Russia, Ukraine

"We expect inflation to quite clearly slow below 2%" toward the middle of the current fiscal year, Ueda told parliament. "Inflation is likely to rebound thereafter ... though there is high uncertainty" on the outlook, he added. Positive signs included a likely big increase in pay in this year's annual wage negotiations, which could help shake off Japan's deflationary mindset. The BOJ will review its quarterly growth and inflation forecasts at the July 27-28 policy meeting. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ German exports to Russia's neighbours fuel sanctions evasion fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Rene Wagner | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although they remain relatively modest in value, German exports to Georgia rose by 92%, while those to Kazakhstan rose 136%, to Armenia 172% and to Tajikistan 154%. An 11th package of EU sanctions, currently being negotiated, will also focus on people and countries circumventing existing trade restrictions. "The circumvention of sanctions against Russia is unacceptable," German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in Brussels on Tuesday. That came after a six-fold rise in German exports to Kyrgyzstan last year following Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "But because Turkey does not participate in EU sanctions, EU goods are further exported from there to Russia."

☆ Bangladesh to pay Russia $300 million in Chinese yuan for a nuclear plant loan
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bangladesh will pay Russia $318 million worth of yuan for a loan payment on a nuclear power plant. Russia, whose state-owned Rosatom is building the nuclear plant, had initially insisted on payment in rubles and refused yuan due to concern over potential conversion losses, according to Bloomberg. But a representative for Rosatom confirmed to the Washington Post that the loan payment will be made in yuan. The payment is partial reimbursement for a $12 billion loan the South Asian country previously received from Moscow, and will help fund a nuclear power plant near the capital city of Dhaka. Bangladesh's yuan payment is the latest example of de-dollarization.

The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts, to be presented in Berlin on Wednesday, expect a 0.1% expansion in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The five economic institutes which prepare the Joint Economic Forecasts predict GDP growth in Germany of 0.3% in 2023, up from a predicted contraction of 0.4% in the autumn, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters. The economics ministry will update its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts this spring. The economic institutes predict inflation of 6.0% in 2023, before slowing to 2.4% in 2024. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

☆ As new data shows inflation rose in January, here's what consumers can expect next
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the inflation rate is poised to subside this year, "it will not be a straight line," Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman told CNBC.com at the time. The Federal Reserve is tasked with getting inflation under control, while trying to avoid a deep economic recession. What the latest inflation measure showsThe personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCEPI, is the central bank's preferred measure as it seeks to bring inflation down to a 2% target. Based on Friday's data, it's "almost a certainty" the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in March, and maybe even higher, Luther said. A period of below 2% inflation would be needed to see prices subside back to where they were, Luther said.

☆ Gas, airfares, car insurance: How transportation costs are impacting high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty ImagesMeanwhile, fuel oil dipped 1.2% in January but was up 27.7% for the past 12 months. While high gas prices made headlines in 2022, prompting gas tax holidays in some states, those prices have subsided from last year's highs. Gas prices "did rise in January and that was mostly due to the weather," said Andrew Gross, spokesperson at AAA. Other transportation costs are in fluxNew vehicles are up 5.8% over the past 12 months ending Jan. 30, and up 0.2% for the month. However, used cars and trucks, a category that surged during record high inflation, are now down 11.6% for the past 12 months and down 1.9% for January.

☆ Economists still worry recession could be on the way. But here's how a soft landing may still be possible
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We are still on the path to lower inflation rates," House said. Economists said they still expect a recession following the new January inflation data. But the Federal Reserve lacks tools to prompt that area to cool off, he said. The new data shows slowing disinflation, he said, while the Federal Reserve will probably have to hold rates higher for longer. A 'Goldilocks scenario' could bring a soft landingThere is still hope, however, that the central bank may execute a so-called "soft landing," according to House.

☆ China remains Germany's main trading partner for seventh year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Trade between Germany and China rose to a record level last year, making the Asian country Germany's most important trading partner for the seventh year in a row despite political warnings in Berlin about excessive dependence. In 2022, Germany imported goods worth 191 billion euros from China, a third more than in 2021. Exports of German goods to China increased by only 3.1% to around 107 billion euros. Overall, Germany had a trade deficit with China of around 84 billion euros. The United States is much more important for German exporters than China, Zenglein said.

☆ A Mexico soccer icon entered politics. Prosecutors say narcos followed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Cuernavaca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +27 min

Regional politicians, officials and military officers gathered in the Morelos state capital of Cuernavaca for breakfast in February 2022 to mark Mexico’s annual Army day. Mexican drug lords have a long tradition of buying off politicians in exchange for government protection of their illicit trade. Attempts to reach two of the alleged drug traffickers in the photo – Figueroa and Irving Solano Vera – were unsuccessful. Prosecutors in April asked the Morelos state congress to impeach Blanco so that he could be stripped of that shield. “He likes me very much because I’m not a politician,” Blanco told Reuters, in reference to the president.

Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports. Long lines are forming at gas stations as prices swing wildly in the country of 220 million. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, recently dropped to new lows against the US dollar after authorities eased currency controls to meet one of the IMF’s lending conditions. The country has been spending more on trade than it has brought in, running down its stock of foreign currency and weighing on the rupee’s value. Pakistan's usually bustling ports, like this one in Karachi, have ground to a halt as the country grapples with a severe shortage of foreign currency.

☆ Just how bad was the war in Ukraine for Europe’s biggest economy last year?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —Germany’s economy grew slightly last year despite battling an energy crisis sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The bank predicts the German economy will stagnate this year, rather than decline, as it had previously forecast. Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty ImagesEither way, it’s welcome news for Europe’s biggest economy. “The German economy has been more resilient than initially feared,” Jan-Christopher Scherer, a research associate at DIW Berlin, told CNN. About 40% of German companies expect business to decline in 2023, and another 35% think it will stagnate, according to a November survey of 2,500 firms conducted by the German Economic Institute.

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