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☆ Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's

☆ Exclusive: German court ruling could hit growth next year - econ ministry source
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Nov 17 (Reuters) - A German court ruling that forced Berlin to freeze 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in planned green investment spending could have a negative impact on growth in Europe's biggest economy, an economy ministry source told Reuters on Friday. "According to initial rough estimates, a loss of investment funds could cause growth in 2024 to be about half a percentage point lower," the source, who is familiar with the economy ministry's forecasts, said. "So the ruling could have a negative impact on economic growth," the source added. Last month, the economy ministry predicted 1.3% growth for next year. The economy ministry is run by the Greens, who share power with Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Andreas Rinke, Miranda Murray, Madeline Chambers, Sabine Wollrab Organizations: Greens, Scholz's Social Democrats, Free Democrats, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Europe's

☆ Two key indicators with with spooky significance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

As in 5% yield on the 10-year T-bill, and 8% interest on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The 10-year Treasury yield, which goes up as prices fall, is flirting with 5% for the first time since 2007 (that’s ominous comparison No. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is barreling toward 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Because:In addition to painfully high interest rates, prices on the homes themselves have soared. “Unfortunately, the upward shift in Treasury yields this week will likely make returning to ‘normal’ an even more challenging target to hit,” Walden said.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Nicole Goodkind, Sellers don’t, Anna Bahney, Andy Walden, ” Walden, ”, Jerome Powell, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, econ, Treasury, US Treasury, ICE Mortgage Technology, ICE Locations: New York, Econ

☆ 'No doubt' Peru in recession, econ minister says, seeking stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LIMA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - There is "no doubt" Peru is in a recession, Economy Minister Alex Contreras said on Friday, his first acknowledgment of the country's negative growth, before speaking before congress to request a fiscal stimulus. Contreras had previously downplayed months of economic contraction, but told journalists outside congress on Friday that the "difficult" situation was now definitively considered a recession. Reporting by Marco Aquino; Editing by Isabel WoodfordOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Alex Contreras, Contreras, Marco Aquino, Isabel Woodford Organizations: Thomson Locations: LIMA, Peru

☆ Zelle Fraud: I Got Scammed Out of $31,000 and My Bank Didn't Care
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Devin Friedman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +38 min

Because a lot of bank branches were still closed, and the crew wanted their money, he requested that we transfer the money via Zelle. When I asked Chase to discuss Zelle fraud, I received an email saying, "Unfortunately, we don't have anyone available for an interview." The way the email messages from Gary were subliterate in a completely different way from the way a classic Gary email is subliterate. When Gary Kruglitz told us to Zelle him, he didn't really tell us to Zelle him. It's possible that the government will eventually be moved to safeguard consumers against Zelle fraud.

Persons: Madison Ketcham, Gary Kruglitz, Gary, couldn't, he'll, Gary —, —, Cheryl, Sheryl, Sheryl —, we'd, Jeff Allen's, didn't, Jeff, Krystal, we'll, He'd, you've, Karen, I'm, she'd, Yellllow, Zelle, Chase, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, there's, That's, It's, Jesus, who'd, Donald Trump, Gary Kruglitzes, Cheryls —, Yasmine48, Nixon, Evan Kohlmann, cybercrime, we've, I've, Kohlmann, Guess, Let's, that's, Elizabeth Warren's, it's, they're, Warren's, Warren, I'd, they'd, blinked Organizations: Boston Pops, The New York Times, New York Times, Chase, Bank of America, PNC, US Bank, PayPal, Disney, NBC, Warner Bros, Netflix, JPMorgan Chase, Bank —, of, Professionals, Justice Department, Northeast . Contractors, Cloudburst Technologies, Facebook, FBI, Mafia, Massachusetts State Police, Monterey Police Department, Police Locations: Massachusetts, Lyme, Tennessee, Wells Fargo, Truist, Silicon Valley, Amsterdam, Northeast, what's, Paxful, Estonia, Korea, Monterey , Massachusetts, Monterey

☆ The Great Zelle Pool Scam
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Devin Friedman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +38 min

When I asked Chase to discuss Zelle fraud, I received an email saying, "Unfortunately, we don't have anyone available for an interview." The way the email messages from Gary were subliterate in a completely different way from the way a classic Gary email is subliterate. When Gary Kruglitz told us to Zelle him, he didn't really tell us to Zelle him. Out of all the kinds of money, money to build a pool is probably the very best kind of money for the world to suffer the loss of. It's possible that the government will eventually be moved to safeguard consumers against Zelle fraud.

☆ China's economic situation isn't as dire as it seems, and policymakers in Beijing were just expecting too much, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy isn't doing as bad as it seems, according to economist Nancy Qian. But Beijing has been disappointed due to outsized expectations for economic growth. Though it's weighed down by a bloated property sector and looming demographic problems, China's economic growth actually clocked in at 6.3% year-over-year over the second quarter, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That's the second-highest projected growth rate among countries tracked by the OECD, with the US, by comparison, slated to grow just 2.2% this year. AdvertisementAdvertisement"But is China's economy really in dire straits?

Persons: Nancy Qian, it's, That's, Qian Organizations: Service, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, OECD, Northwestern University, Northwester's, Research Lab, China Econ, Syndicate, Japan Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, China, Italy, Spain, Sweden

FILE PHOTO-Italy's Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti delivers a speech at the G7 High-Level Corporate Governance Roundtable in Niigata on May 11, 2023. "It may be that the tax is inappropriate, it can certainly be improved upon ... but I do not accept that it is considered an unfair tax," Giorgetti said at The European House - Ambrosetti economic forum. Bank shares tumbled before the economy ministry clarified that the new tax would amount to no more than 0.1% of their total assets. Forza Italia is also seeking an exemption for small banks and wants a guarantee the levy will not be extended beyond 2023. Giorgetti did not comment on his government ally's proposals on the bank tax.

Persons: Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti, KAZUHIRO, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Giorgetti, Antonio Tajani, Siena, Giselda Vagnoni, Giancarlo Navach, Hugh Lawson, David Evans Organizations: Economy, Finance, Bank, League, Forza Italia, Monte, Thomson Locations: Niigata, Italy, Cernobbio

☆ Econ data is now very consistent with a soft landing, says Goldman's Hatzius
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEcon data is now very consistent with a soft landing, says Goldman's HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist and head of global investment research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how to frame Friday's jobs report, Hatzius' thoughts on the Federal Reserve's moves next year, and how the Fed looks at excluding current events.

Persons: Goldman's Hatzius Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal

☆ Why JPMorgan's trading desk says a new record high in the S&P 500 'feels inevitable'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A group of analysts from JPMorgan's trading desk say a new record high for S&P 500 "feels inevitable." The S&P 500 closed at 4,576.73 on Tuesday, less than 5% shy of its record closing level of 4,796.56 reached in January 2022. The fact earnings can beat expectations in an high-rate environment creates the argument for elevated valuations, in their view, and that could push the S&P 500 well beyond record highs. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital's chief investment strategist, told Insider on Monday that all-time highs indeed look possible for the S&P 500 in the near-term. Steady multiples and fulfilled earnings expectations should be enough to justify the S&P 500 at 4,800 or above."

Persons: Andrew Tyler, there's, that's, it's, Anastasia Amoroso, Amoroso Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ A study in Swiftonomics: Why we're willing to spend so much on Eras Tour tickets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Sirena Bergman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

People's willingness to pay huge amounts for Taylor Swift tickets defies the current economy. I also got swept up by the Eras Tour hype. So when tickets to Taylor Swift's US tour went on sale last year, I wasn't expecting the astronomical demand to basically break the internet. Desperate fans who missed out were paying extortionate amounts of money for second-hand tickets, which were being sold at up to a 4,000% markup. Insider reported that at least two people spent $20,000 on the Eras tour, and that doesn't factor in the elaborate outfits that are pretty much mandatory.

Persons: Taylor Swift, Taylor, —, Brett House Organizations: Service, Columbia Business School Locations: Wall, Silicon, Paris

☆ Resetting student loans brings Econ 101 lessons
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Joe Biden’s student loan forbearance erases as much as $20,000 in potential relief for graduates. Combined with the resumption of debt payments, borrowers will be feeling the pinch in their wallets and their confidence. The court said on Friday that a plan to wipe out swathes of student loans was unconstitutional, ending hopes of an easier financial future for some 43 million borrowers. If the Supreme Court had supported the relief, it also risked stoking inflation just as it slides to a healthier level. The proposal aimed to relieve $10,000 of student loans for individuals earning less than $125,000 annually, and an additional $10,000 for eligible borrowers who received Pell Grant subsidies.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Taco, Pell Grant, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Supreme, White, Census Bureau, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Taco Bell, Yum Brands, Biden, Democratic, Congressional, Office, Former U.S, Thomson

☆ Breakingviews: Student-loan ruling offers Econ 101 crash course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Joe Biden’s student loan forbearance erases as much as $20,000 in potential relief for graduates. Combined with the resumption of debt payments, borrowers will be feeling the pinch in their wallets and their confidence. Had Biden’s policy covered $10,000 of their debt, the typical monthly payment would have shrunk by about a quarter. If the Supreme Court had supported the relief, it also risked stoking inflation just as it slides to a healthier level. CONTEXT NEWSThe U.S. Supreme Court on June 30 ruled 6-3 against President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive student loan debt for some 43 million borrowers.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Taco, Pell Grant, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Supreme, White, Census Bureau, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Taco Bell, Yum Brands, Biden, Twitter, Democratic, Congressional, Office, Former U.S, Thomson

☆ Argentina to make $1.9 bln payment to IMF as scheduled - econ min source
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BUENOS AIRES, June 21 (Reuters) - Argentina will make scheduled payments totaling some $1.9 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday, an economy ministry source said. Argentina has $2.7 billion due to the fund this month alone. The government hopes to bring forward over $10 billion in IMF disbursements this year, though has been reluctant to agree to tough austerity measures as the next general elections scheduled for October approach. Economy Minister Sergio Massa is set to travel to Washington once an agreement to ease economic targets is drafted with IMF officials. Reporting by Jorge Otaola and Walter Bianchi; Editing by Conor HumphriesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Jorge Otaola, Walter Bianchi, Conor Humphries Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Washington

☆ Why do businesses keep raising their prices?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Los Angeles CNN —After two years of surging prices, economists still can’t agree on what has caused the world’s worst inflation crisis in decades. The survey of 700 businesses across New York, Atlanta and Cleveland found that strength of customer demand outranked all other factors that companies weigh when setting prices, including steady profit margins and overall inflation. More than 82% of businesses surveyed said demand factored into their pricing decisions, while only 52% of businesses said they take the overall rate of inflation into account when setting prices. Are customers too willing to pay higher prices? Murphy said the restaurant has since raised prices more than once to keep up with inflation.

Persons: “, John Zheng, ”, Zheng, Mr, Mac’s, Mark Murphy, Murphy, ” Murphy, Emily Netti, “ I’ve Organizations: Los Angeles CNN —, New York Federal Reserve, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, CNN, Colgate, Procter, Gamble, PepsiCo, Federal Reserve, New York Fed Locations: Ukraine, New, New York, Atlanta, Cleveland, Manchester , New Hampshire, Syracuse , New York, Syracuse

The draft plan, which was presented at Kishida's top economic advisory panel on Wednesday, underscored the challenge for the leader, who is seen as a fiscal hawk, to strike a balance between economic growth and fiscal consolidation. The closely-watched policy framework will be approved by Kishida's cabinet this month, along with a separate action plan on his "new capitalism" agenda. "We will not abandon the flag of fiscal reform," Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto told reporters after the panel's meeting. "There's no change to the government stance of striving to achieve a primary budget surplus in fiscal 2025," Goto added. The framework said the government will conduct a review of any progress of its fiscal reform in the fiscal year 2024 so as to create a medium-term economy and fiscal scheme.

Persons: Fumio Kishida's, Takahide Kiuchi, Shigeyuki Goto, Goto, largesse, Kishida Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP ₎, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

☆ McCarthy and Biden's debt-ceiling deal could hurt student-loan borrowers and people on food stamps — and cost some Americans their jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Hannah Getahun | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Biden and McCarthy finally reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling on Saturday night. The deal strengthens work requirements on welfare programs and codifies the end of the student-loan payment pause. The deal also alters Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program work requirements for those between 18-54 who do no not have children and are able to work. The financial intelligence agency added that the new work requirements for income support programs could additionally result in tens of thousands of lost jobs. Still, it's vital a bill to raise the debt ceiling gets signed into law because a default could mean a recessions — and millions more jobs lost as a result.

☆ Opinion | If You’re Reading This, You’re Probably ‘WEIRD’
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( The Ezra Klein Show | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +83 min

You’re probably very weird, and not just for all the obvious reasons you’re thinking of. Because, obviously, there’s going to be some overlap in the curve here. How you’re going to behave with your professor is quite different than how you’re going to behave with your friends. But it’s really kind of faceless, and you’re not really helping anybody you know. I think things are dynamic, and directions are changing, and that sort of thing.

☆ Big Japanese manufacturers remain gloomy as external demand ebbs - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The survey confirmed the economy is on track for a post-coronavirus recovery backed by service-sector firms, although manufacturers are affected by a slowdown in global demand," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. The Reuters Tankan, which closely tracks the Bank of Japan's (BOA) quarterly key tankan survey, canvassed 493 big non-financial firms. The sentiment index for big manufacturers in the Reuters Tankan survey stood at minus 3, unchanged from the previous month and posting a fourth straight month of negative readings, according to the survey. The Reuters Tankan manufacturers index is expected to rebound to plus 7 over the next three months. The large service-sector firms' index edged up to plus 24 in April from plus 21 seen in the previous month, hitting the highest level since December.

The Federal Reserve has gone too far with its interest rates hikes — creating a difficult upcoming three-to-six months for stocks, Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel said Wednesday. Siegel said he was bullish on stocks in January. And that's the official forecast of the Fed," Siegel said. It could be more severe than that, which could lead to more decline in earnings," he added. To be sure, Siegel is still bullish on equities for the long term and thinks the markets will tick up in 2024 and 2025.

☆ 'Black wealth matters': How a millennial is helping his community build wealth through education
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Learning the tricks of the tradeMac's wake-up call to start investing came early in his undergraduate career. "That was the one thing that opened my eyes and my curiosity and made me say, 'OK, I want to start investing.'" His interest in investing and wealth management eventually led him to a career on Wall Street. Making music as the "Wall Street Rapper," Mac began fusing the worlds he'd come to know so well: Black and urban hip-hop culture with Wall Street financial know-how. Mac adopted the slogan "Black wealth matters" to bring attention to the idea that economic empowerment is a major step toward equality for Black Americans.

☆ A professor says he's stunned that ChatGPT went from a D grade on his economics test to an A in just 3 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

An economics professor was stunned by the progress ChatGPT made in an exam in just three months. Bryan Caplan of George Mason University said the chatbot got a D in his economics test in January. Bryan Caplan, an economics professor at George Mason University, told Insider the latest version of ChatGPT could now be responsible for the first big bet he's ever lost. Caplan told Insider the bot failed to understand basic concepts, such as the principle of comparative and absolute advantage. "I'm probably going to lose this AI bet but I am totally on board to do a bunch more end-of-the-world AI bets because I think these people are out of their minds."

☆ OPEC raises Chinese oil demand growth view, flags econ risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"China's reopening, following the lifting of the strict zero-COVID-19 policy, will add considerable momentum to global economic growth," OPEC said in the report. "The rapid rises in interest rates and global debt levels could cause significant negative spill-over effects, and may negatively impact the global growth dynamic," OPEC added. OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by 710,000 bpd in 2023, up from last month's forecast of 590,000 bpd and a contraction in 2022. OPEC was cautious on economic prospects, leaving its 2023 global growth forecast at 2.6%. OPEC's share of the cut is 1.27 million bpd.

☆ All-weather stocks that can outperform in any economic 'landing,' according to Evercore ISI
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As investors weigh the possibility of a U.S. recession or a soft landing, there are certain stocks that should outperform in either scenario, according to Evercore ISI. However, Evercore ISI is among those on Wall Street that have a base-case scenario of a recession in the second half of the year. The other is what he calls " valmentum stocks " — value stocks with momentum — that have high free-cash-flow yield and strong earnings-per-share momentum, he added. Booking Holdings is one of Evercore ISI's valmentum stocks and could rally about 15% from Friday's close, according to the firm's price target of $3,000. Wynn is up more than 40% year to date, while Las Vegas Sands stock has gained more than 26%.

☆ 3 reasons why the housing market won't crash in 2023, according to the real estate research director at the National Association of Realtors
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But the director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors doesn't believe it. Here are three reasons why there won't be a housing market crisis this year. Renters hoping to buy a home after the US housing market collapses may be waiting a while. "Usually, the pending home sales is the indicator for the existing home sales," Evangelou said. Another near-term driver for the housing market is the seasonal trend of demand picking up in warmer months, Evangelou said.

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