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"We should be anticipating higher highs in the market," Lundgren, the chief market strategist at MOTR Capital Management & Research and a portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, recently told Business Insider. The 28-year market veteran's upbeat sentiment is more widespread now than last fall, when the S&P 500 struggled mightily before a powerful end-of-year surge. There can be negative or positive stretches within an established bull or bear market, Lundgren noted. Only one of the ETFs tracking Lundgren's preferred sectors has beaten the S&P 500 (in dark blue) since late last summer. When adjusting for market cap, cyclicals have fared much better and have bested the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 in several cases.
Persons: , David Lundgren, Lundgren, he'd, we've Organizations: Service, MOTR Capital Management & Research, Little Harbor Advisors, Business, Yahoo Finance, Yahoo
He previously took home the title of Morningstar fixed-income manager of the year in 2016. Generating long-term outperformance The largest among the many funds O'Neil co-manages is the Fidelity Total Bond Fund (FTBFX), which has $35.8 billion in assets and a 5.32% 30-day SEC yield. From December 2004 through the end of March 2024, Fidelity Total Bond Fund's 3.7% annualized gain topped the typical intermediate core-plus bond Morningstar Category fund's 3.3% and the 3.1% of its benchmark, the Bloomberg U.S. The 'secret sauce' The fixed-income team also benefits from teaming up with equity analysts when they talk to corporate executives, public agencies and government issuers. "If you're a buyer of nominal yields, you're finding the market very attractive.
Persons: Fidelity's Ford O'Neil, O'Neil, O'Neil —, Morningstar, Ford …, Dan Culloton, Morningstar's Culloton, FTBFX, it's Organizations: Fidelity, Harvard University, One, CNBC, Harvard, Bond Fund, SEC, Bloomberg U.S, Total Bond, Bond, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury Locations: Wharton, U.S
The firm began coverage of this corner of the ETF space on Monday. An ETF play Woodard's team began coverage of one CLO fund: the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) . "Among covered ETFs with higher credit quality, it has the highest yield," Woodard said. There is also BlackRock's AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) , an actively managed offering with an expense ratio of 0.20% and a 30-day SEC yield of 6.59%. Investors digging into the CLO ETF space shouldn't just focus on yield, of course.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, Jerome Powell, CLOs, Janus Henderson, JAAA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, AAA, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, SEC, AA, AAA CLO, CLOs, BBB
Mounting geopolitical tensions stemming from conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have helped drive oil prices to five month highs, challenging the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. U.S. crude oil gained 4.5% this week, touching $87 a barrel on Friday before settling at $86.91. Rising energy prices may affect the timing or magnitude of interest rate cuts, he said. The Federal Reserve is focused on bringing down core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices. Escalating attacks are coming against a backdrop of an already tightening global crude market.
Persons: Brent, Bart Melek, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Bob Yawger, Yawger, Netanyahu, Manish Raj, White, Biden, John Kilduff, Kilduff, Melek, Saudi Arabia doesn't Organizations: Federal, American Automobile Association, West Texas, TD Securities, Lipow Oil Associates, Mizuho Americas, Valero, Philips, Marathon Petroleum, Velandera Energy Partners, Kyiv, JPMorgan, Financial Times, Again Capital, Bank of America, Saudi Locations: East, Eastern Europe, Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Damascus, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Deutsche Bank's Fresh Money List has beaten the S&P 500 since its inception. It includes favored names from the bank's leading analysts across various sectors. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementIf you're wary of following the crowd and think the S&P 500 is too expensive but aren't sure where to look next for gains, consider Deutsche Bank's Fresh Money List. It's a basket of the top stocks that the bank's leading analysts predict will outperform the market over the coming 12 months.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Deutsche, Business
Stellar stock-market returns have boosted Americans' retirement account balances. The number of 401(k) millionaires is up and average account balances are the highest in two years. Markets are volatileInvesting experts also caution against the belief that the market will keep producing strong returns year after year. Markets are up big (+20%) or negative nearly two-thirds of the time whereas 'average' returns (0-20%) only happen about a third of the time," Anderson wrote. Future uncertainty often brings a "sequence of returns risk" that's overlooked by early retirees.
Persons: , Brian Spinelli, Halbert Hargrove, Aaron Anderson, Spinelli, Stocks, Anderson, boomers Organizations: Service, Fidelity, Fisher Investments
But let's say you're 30 years old and haven't started stashing money away; you may have difficulty getting there. And as a result of this, if you're going to live during a 30 or 40 year retirement. In Edelman's opinion, you're late to the game if you're over 25 and haven't started saving and investing. When people do set money aside, it's often in the wrong places, such as bank savings, money market accounts, and government bonds, Edelman said. All of this might sound complicated for a beginner, but diversification can be achieved through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Edelman noted.
Persons: haven't, Ric Edelman, Barron's, Edelman, it's, aren't, Franklin Templeton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Edelman, New York Times, Trust, Vanguard Locations: America
"Bitcoin reclaiming its all-time high yet again shows it is never going away," said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital. Catalysts driving the surge in the cryptocurrency include the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs that started trading earlier this year, along with the tightening bitcoin supply ahead of the late April "halving." "The odds have always been against bitcoin," Thorn said, citing naysayers who have referred to it as "a bubble" and compared it to the "tulip mania" in Holland during the 1600s. "Retail interest is oftentimes momentum driven, and all-time high levels are a pivotal momentum driver for even more investment," he told CNBC. Nevertheless, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have brought legitimacy to it and been hugely popular, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) passing $10 billion in assets under management last week.
Persons: Jaap Arriens, FTX, crypto's Lehman, Alex Thorn, bitcoin, Clara Medalie, Thorn, naysayers, Needham, John Todaro, Crypto, BlackRock's Organizations: NurPhoto, Getty, Metrics, Galaxy, CNBC, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: U.S, Holland
"You want to be able to embrace the sell-off and say, 'OK, it's going to get me my price,'" Jim said. During these declines, Jim said to focus on a stock's price and pick a level to start buying. Let the other people give you your price," Jim said. "If you just wake up one morning and say, 'Listen, I can't take it anymore,' that's going to be a bad buy," Jim said. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Here's, — Emanuel, Jim, Peter, Jeff, Wells, — Ben, they'd, destocking, Seth, we've, it's, hasn't, Eaton, — David, — Kyle, you've, It's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Humana, DuPont, Eaton Corp, Palo Alto Networks, Enphase Energy, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Eaton
The study, published in November 2023, compared eight mainstream approaches to retirement investing. The portfolio with 100% domestic stocks did just as well as the one split between domestic and international equities on average, Cederburg noted. AdvertisementTherefore, Cederburg pointed to the second-best contender as the portfolio comprising an equal split between domestic and international stocks, with a small percentage allocated to bonds. The study also showed that the all-stocks investor was least likely to run out of money during retirement. The target-date fund combines domestic and international stocks, bonds, and bills.
Persons: Scott Cederburg, Cederburg, Jeremy Stempien, Stempien, David Blanchett, PGIM's Organizations: Service, Finance, University of Arizona, Cederburg
Today's dominance by the "Magnificent Seven" is starting to look eerily similar to how markets were during the 1990s dot-com bubble, according to JPMorgan. By the end of 2023, the 10 largest U.S. stocks, which includes all of the Magnificent Seven names, accounted for 29.3% of the MSCI USA. The 10 largest stocks are: Apple, Microsoft, both share classes of Google parent Alphabet , Amazon , Nvidia , Meta , Tesla , Broadcom and JPMorgan . .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 To be sure, the valuations of the top 10 stocks in 2000 were "significantly more extreme" than they are today, Chaudhry said. What's more, the top 10 stocks today are more crowded than they were even in 2000.
Persons: That's, Khuram Chaudhry, Chaudhry, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, USA, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Broadcom, Apple Locations: U.S, USA
Here's a breakdown of the bitcoin chart and what to watch for to confirm that the cryptocurrency is resuming its long-term trend back to all-time highs. A quick glimpse of BTC's chart shows that the last five months have been peppered with additional breakouts and overbought readings. Bigger picture, this is the most important chart pattern we're watching right now. For bitcoin, that gets us to a target near $66,500, which is right in line with its former, all-time highs. Zooming even further out, last year's bounce allowed bitcoin to maintain the same uptrend line it's been riding for years.
Persons: bitcoin, overbought, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: SEC, BTC
Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed. To be sure, prices overall are higher in 2023 despite slowed price growth, with October's consumer price index climbing to 3.2% year-over-year. The figure remained flat on a month-over-month basis, signaling some holiday item prices may be slow to come down. Despite a dip in sporting goods prices, they continue to pace above 2019 levels. Walmart WMT.N said prices of general merchandise - clothing, electronics, furniture - had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season.
Persons: Theresa Forsberg, Jill Lizzo, Barbie, Walmart WMT.N, it's, , Christina Hennington, Vincent Alban, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Jeffrey Roach, Macy's, Kevin Simpson, Simpson, Siddharth Cavale, Amina Niasse, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Walmart, Reuters Graphics Reuters, REUTERS, Associates, LPL, Dick's Sporting, Reuters, Wealth, Target, Home Depot, Wayback Machine, Thomson Locations: New Milford , Connecticut, New York's Harlem, Chicago , Illinois, U.S, New York
A child looks at toys in a Target store ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and traditional Black Friday sales in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. November 21, 2023. Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed. Walmart WMT.N said prices of general merchandise - clothing, electronics, furniture - had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season. Black Friday discounts are 30% to 50% at major retailers and could go deeper later in the season. "You're going to see margin compression and potentially lower sales," said Simpson, whose firm holds shares in Walmart and Home Depot.
Persons: Vincent Alban, Barbie, Walmart WMT.N, it's, , Christina Hennington, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Jeffrey Roach, Kevin Simpson, Simpson, Siddharth Cavale, Amina Niasse, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Walmart, Associates, LPL, Wayback Machine, Dick's Sporting, Reuters, Wealth, Target, Home Depot, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Macy's, New York
Bonds The case for fixed income is "fairly clear," according to Budden, who was speaking on Nov. 9. By comparison, he said that if you "just stick it in cash," its value is likely to get eroded by high inflation. Stocks Meanwhile, the equities expert believes there is no better time to play the stock market. 'Haven't missed the market' As much as Budden is optimistic on stocks, he cautioned that "not all equities are the same." For one, the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks – Alphabet , Amazon , Apple , Meta Platforms , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla – have been reigning supreme this year.
Persons: Andy Budden, Budden, Haven't, haven't, " Budden, CNBC's Katrina Bishop Organizations: U.S . Federal, Capital Group, CNBC Pro, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
The furious rise in interest rates appears to be fueling a spike in trading for long-term bond products, even those focused on high quality Treasurys. While many long-term bond funds have seen recent inflows, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is extending its ETF market leadership position. The popularity of ARKK was a classic momentum trade, while bond funds have mostly been crushed over the past year. TLT YTD mountain Long-term bond funds like TLT have fallen sharply in 2023. Klingelhofer did say he was more interested in adding mid-term duration than long-term duration products, however.
Persons: Todd Sohn, ARKK, " Sohn, Sohn, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Allison Bonds, it's, Bonds Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, Innovation, CNBC, Thornburg Investment Management, State Street Global Advisors
The projections prompted U.S. Treasury debt yields to fall slightly, with the benchmark 10-year yield last at 4.88%. "Interest in today's borrowing projections have been higher than normal," said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jeffries in New York. Investors awaited the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday for details on which maturities will be increased as the department pursues record borrowing levels. QUARTERLY RECORDSThe reduced $776 billion borrowing estimate would still be a record for any October-December period, exceeding the $689 billion in the 2021 quarter boosted by high COVID-19 relief outlays. In the third calendar quarter of 2023, the Treasury said it borrowed $1.01 trillion and ended that period with a cash balance of $657 billion.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Thomas Simons, Jeffries, Steven Zeng, Wednesday's, Zeng, Karen Brettell, David Lawder, Daniel Burns, Davide Barbuscia, Andrea Ricci, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Investors, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, California, New York
Michael Burry, best known for calling 2008's subprime mortgage crisis, just added a new notch in his belt by predicting the latest market correction led by tech stocks. The California-based investor, who now runs his hedge fund Scion Asset Management, had amassed massive bets against the stock market in the second quarter. These 20,000 options contracts were against shares worth $738.8 million at the end of the second quarter. These two indices fell into correction territory this week , making Burry's bets lucrative in theory. Also in the second quarter, Burry bought small stakes in travel names Expedia and MGM Resorts , as well as health care plays Cigna and CVS Health .
Persons: Michael Burry, SPDR, Burry, Michael Lewis, it's, Burry's Organizations: Asset Management, Scion, Nasdaq, Meta, CNBC, Federal Reserve, MGM Resorts, CVS Health Locations: California
The US has outfitted Ukraine with AIM-9 missiles that it says are to be used for "air defense." A Ukrainian official said the Sidewinder missiles will be used in an improvised air-defense system. AdvertisementAdvertisementWith winter on the horizon, Kyiv is turning to its improvised air-defense systems to help get the country through an anticipated onslaught of Russian missile and drone barrages. A senior Ukrainian official said this involves tinkering with the primary job description of an American-made missile. The US official said that one system to come from the FrankenSAM program will be capable of launching the AIM-9 missiles.
Persons: , Lloyd Austin Organizations: US, AIM, Pentagon, Service, Russian, Financial Times, Kyiv, Associated Press Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, American, Russia, Moscow, Washington, Kyiv
The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.
Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris
Oil prices jumped 4% on Monday before shrugging off those gains in subsequent sessions, and gold prices have inched higher by a little over 1% since the attack. "Global markets have yet to fully price the inflation risks from developments — from higher oil prices and more defense spending," Savage cautioned. That would cause the premium [of oil prices] to go higher," said Rapidan Energy Group's President Bob McNally. This could spike oil prices well north of $150 per barrel," Alpine Macro said in a note following the incursion. One analyst is of the view that even if the conflict prolongs, its implications on global markets is still largely contained.
Persons: Sameh, BNY Mellon, shrugging, BNY, Bob Savage, Savage, Amir Cohen, Bob McNally, McNally, Antony Blinken, Marko Papic, Mahmud Hams Organizations: Nurphoto, Hamas, U.S ., Swiss, BNY, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Reuters, Energy, United Nations, U.S, ., NBC News, Palestinian Health Ministry, Clocktower Group, CNBC, Brigades, Afp, Getty Locations: Gaza City, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Ukraine, Stockholm, U.S, Ashkelon, Iran, United States, Persian, Mahmud
High yield bond funds tout sweet yields, but swirling concerns around the economy are spurring questions on how much longer the income party will last. Consider that the 30-day yield on the SPDR Bloomberg Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (SJNK) is 8.78%. Indeed, the Morningstar U.S. high yield bond index has a year-to-date total return of 4.61%, compared to the -1.29% total return on Morningstar's U.S. corporate bond index . Consumers are also a focal point when it comes to the economic outlook, according to Peter Higgins, head of fixed income and senior fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management. Being selective about risk UBS is neutral on high yield overall, but positive on short-dated high yield paper of good quality companies.
Persons: Paul Olmsted, Olmsted, Alina Golant, Golant, Peter Higgins, Dow Jones, Shelton's Higgins, Morningstar's Olmsted, Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, Federal Reserve, Morningstar U.S, Morningstar's, Morningstar, UBS, Shelton Capital Management
The stock market is missing one key ingredient to mount a year-end rally, according to Bank of America. Favorable fourth-quarter seasonal patterns would support a year-end rally if the capitulation event materializes. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US stock market is missing one key ingredient for a year-end rally to materialize, according to a recent note from Bank of America. This is likely a key ingredient ahead of a year-end rally for the S&P 500," Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier said. Ultimately, Suttmeier believes the stock market is in a long-term bullish uptrend, and that 2023 will represent a pivotal year for the bull market.
Persons: , Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, it's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, Big, Trump, Corrections Locations: China
A capitulation event is likely in October before stocks can ride a year-end rally, according to Bank of America. Investors are coming off the worst month of the year for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite . The Cboe 3-Month Volatility Index and Cboe Volatility Index are used in tandem to measure volatility in the S & P 500. The former gauges the S & P 500's implied volatility over three months, while the latter reflects the index's 30-day volatility. "The late 2023 setup resembles those from late 2012, late 2016 and late 2019," Suttmeier wrote.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Trump, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Nasdaq, China Trade Locations: Brexit
2023's surge in technology stocks fizzled in September as rising rates put a heavy dent in the artificial intelligence-fueled rally . Over the next few weeks, Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster is keeping an eye on September's consumer price index and nonfarm payrolls report ahead of the start of big technology earnings later in the month. "The good news is that this should right itself once the September quarter earnings come up." Sean Sun, a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, likened the earnings season to a "gut check" on AI beneficiaries. But these drawdowns could offer opportunities for long-term investors to snatch up technology bets at bargain prices, said Nancy Tengler.
Persons: what's, behemoths, Street's, Gene Munster, Erika Klauer, Sean Sun, Paul Meeks, Nancy Tengler, Meeks, Klauer Organizations: Nasdaq, Reserve, Enphase, Lucid, ASML, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft, Devices, Nvidia, Tech, Thornburg Investment Management, Laffer, Investments, ServiceNow, Adobe, Broadcom, Oracle, Meta, Jennison, AMD
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