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Stock Market Today: Dow, Nasdaq Close Lower; Big Bank Stocks Slide
  + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +2 min
A broad sell off in regional bank shares—including KeyCorp and Comerica—made financial stocks among the worst performers in the S&P 500. ET:Stock indexes fell. The S&P 500 and Dow industrials pared some of their losses from earlier in the day, but still ended down. Eli Lilly led the S&P 500 higher. Bank shares were among the biggest losers, with UniCredit and other Italian banks sinking after Rome said it plans a windfall tax.
Persons: Dow industrials, Eli Lilly, Wall Organizations: KeyCorp, Comerica, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, United Parcel Service, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Shanghai, Nikkei, Bank Locations: Government, Europe, Rome
Markets hit the skids on Wednesday after Fitch Ratings downgraded its rating on U.S. debt to AA+ on Tuesday evening — one notch below the agency's highest rating of AAA. "The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management," the rating firm said in a press release. In historical context, though, this week's downgrade is less of a big deal than it seems, experts say. the rating agency dinged Uncle Sam's once perfect credit rating. "In some ways, the S&P downgrade echoes the current downgrade from Fitch," Sam Millette, fixed income strategist for the Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote in a recent note.
Persons: Fitch, Ryan Detrick, — Fitch, , Bonds, Uncle Sam's, Jon Maier, hasn't, Sam Millette, Maier Organizations: Fitch, AAA, Nasdaq, Dow, Carson Group, Moody's, Global, Commonwealth Financial Network Locations: Washington, creditworthiness, Fitch
In the latest week, bitcoin closed lower by 1.9%. Coin Metrics measures a week in crypto, which trades 24 hours a day, from the 4:00 p.m. "August is a quiet month for traditional market investors and crypto is no different," said Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG, the crypto subsidiary of Stone Ridge Asset Management. "Historically, mean returns have waned as we go into the summer months and that may play out again in August." But even with the latest downdraft, bitcoin is still up about 77% for the year, and investors are upbeat.
Persons: it's, Greg Cipolaro, Ric Edelman, Edelman, Bitcoin, , Gina Francolla Organizations: bitcoin, Management, Digital Assets, Financial Professionals, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Binance, Innovation, Technology, Century, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Nasdaq Locations: NYDIG, Stone, Congress, BlackRock
All three "headline indexes" are considered, in one way or another, proxies for the stock market, and over long periods, they've tended to perform pretty similarly. S&P 500When investing pros talk about market returns, they're usually talking about the S&P 500. The index tracks roughly the 500 largest U.S.-traded stocks, comprising 80% of all stocks traded on the market. Created in 1957, the index was the U.S.'s first index weighted by market capitalization (stock price times total outstanding shares), and today it is the favored benchmark index for mutual fund managers who measure themselves against the broad stock market. Nasdaq CompositeThe Nasdaq Composite includes all stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market — the first electronic stock exchange.
Persons: you'll, Tesla, Dow, Nvidia — Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, P, Dow Jones, Wall Street Journal . Companies, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: lockstep, U.S
New York CNN —If you follow right-wing media or Twitter, you may have seen a lot of coverage recently about Target’s stock price falling. Fox News aired more than 2 hours of coverage on Target’s Pride Month displays from May 23 to May 30, according to Media Matters, a liberal media monitoring group. Target faced a homophobic campaign that went viral on social media over its annual Pride Month clothing collection. But Target’s stock drop has nothing to do with its Pride Month clothing collection or the anti-LGBTQ campaign. JP Morgan, which downgraded Target’s stock Thursday, said in a report that “we continue to believe that the consumer is broadly weakening while the share of wallet shift away from goods is ongoing.” JP Morgan did not include a word about consumer backlash to Target’s Pride Month collection.
Persons: Matt Walsh, it’s, Locker, Berna Barshay, It’s, JP Morgan, ” JP Morgan, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Fox News, Target’s, Media, Target, Pride, Walmart, Shoppers Locations: New York, Thursday’s
An imposing, ominous shelf cloud was spotted in the skies above Chicago. Video shows the cloud moving through the city, bringing strong winds up to 60 mph with it. If you see one of these apocalyptic-looking shelf clouds coming toward you, it's important to seek shelter, Wysocki said. The National Weather Service of Chicago said the area was experiencing severe weather threats throughout this morning, with strong winds and rains. Derek Van Dam, a CNN meteorologist, tweeted that the "powerful" shelf cloud brought wind gusts of up to 60 mph to Chicago.
The Nasdaq 100 just flashed a "sell" signal for the first time since November 2021, according to Fairlead Strategies. The sell signal suggests the stock market will soon roll over, leading to a return of strength in defensive sectors. Outperformance in utilities and health care stocks "would be naturally associated with the next market downdraft," Fairlead's Katie Stockton said. The sell signal was generated on Monday via the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator, which generated a counter-trend "13" sell signal. "The implications of the '13 sell' signal are for a two-week pullback in the Nasdaq 100, but sometimes they yield more lasting reversals."
There are four differences between the current banking crisis and the GFC, Moody's chief economist says. Zandi's comments adds to views that the current banking crisis is different from the situation in 2008. In a series of tweets on Monday, Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the current banking crisis is different from the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in four key ways. The financial crisis, which sparked the Great Recession, was one of the worst economic downturns in US history. The economic backdrop is different this time aroundZandi also said the economic backdrop right now is very different from that of the Great Financial Crisis.
Stocks are bouncing but market will soon face next big hurdle
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Strategists see the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday as the next big hurdle for markets, barring any other unexpected developments. Traders in the futures market upped their bets Tuesday to a more than 70% chance that the Fed raises interest rates by a quarter point on March 22. Regional bank stocks rose sharply Tuesday after being crushed on fears there could be more bank failures, following the rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The central bank will also release forecasts after that meeting, including new outlooks for interest rates and inflation. "Something pretty darn significant just broke as a result of higher rates," said Lori Calvasina, head U.S. equity strategist at RBC.
A fund once led by an investing great known for finding opportunities in distressed assets is beating the market — but with a somewhat different focus. The Third Avenue Value Fund (TVFVX) outperformed the S & P 500 in 2022, rising 11.2% while the broad-market index shed 19.4%. 'Go where the opportunities are' Fine said that can happen by looking at both country and industry trends. The fund had just over 40% and 30% of its holdings in small- and mid-cap companies, respectively, at the end of 2022. portfolio manager Matt Fine Fine was able to work under Whitman and eventually take over the value fund, which is one of the first the company created, in 2017, a year before Whitman died.
Intel (INTC) catches multiple price target cuts on Wall Street after missing estimates with fourth-quarter earnings and revenue. Piper Sandler raises On Semiconductor (ON) price target to $85 per share from $75; keeps overweight (buy) rating. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Salesforce (CRM) downgraded to market perform from outperform (hold from buy) at Cowen, which also cut its price target to $160 per share from $175. Barclays upgrades Ralph Lauren (RL) to overweight from equal weight (buy from hold); increases its price target to $134 per share from $101. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Goldman Sachs says 2023 should be a decent year for stocks even if there's a recession. The firm's investment strategy group discussed its multi-asset views this week. The simultaneous nosedive in stocks and bonds last year doesn't debunk the theory behind the traditional 60-40 portfolio, according to Goldman Sachs. But Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, the head of the Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs, says that it's not that unusual for stocks and bonds to move in the same direction. In fact, he noted that if a recession begins and ends in 2023, stocks may not have a bad year.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is telling investors to brace for a winter downdraft. He warns S&P 500 is vulnerable to a 23% drop — bringing it to 3,000. Wilson expects earnings season, which kicks off with financials on Friday, will jolt the market by coming in sharply below expectations. "When we actually talk to people, they talk a bearish game about the first half. But they're not really either positioned for it or they don't really think that it's going to be that bad," said Wilson, who has been defensively positioned since last year.
Cities such as Mumbai have seen the most home sales and new housing starts in India. India’s housing market is defying the downdraft that has inflicted home sales and prices in the U.S. and most of the developed world. Affluent Indians who kept working during the pandemic but throttled back on spending are returning to the country’s housing market in force. They are driving up the volume of new home sales as well as prices, which stagnated in the years leading up to the pandemic.
John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.
JPMorgan cut its iPhone shipment forecast for the December quarter once again as Apple faces the fallout from the temporary shutdown at one of its largest assembly plants. Analyst Samik Chatterjee trimmed the bank's shipment estimates to 70 million from 74 million and cut the bank's price target on the stock to $190 a share, citing supply chain challenges resulting from the plant closure. The cut accounts for a downdraft of both 2 million iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max units. The bank previously cut estimates for the December period by 8 million, accounting for 5 million fewer Pro and 3 million other iPhone shipments. His forecast now expects 235 million iPhone shipments for the full year, down from a previous 237 million estimates, and representing a 5% decline year over year.
The Consumer Price Index was 7.1% in November, and the Fed brought the fed funds rate ceiling up to 4.5% this week. Below we've compiled what four major Wall Street banks believe stocks will do if a recession plays out. UBSUBS economists are predicting a recession starting in Q2 2023, and the bank's Chief US Equity Strategist Keith Parker therefore sees a hit to earnings ahead. Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs economists, meanwhile, see a soft landing as the most likely scenario for the US economy in 2023. Goldman SachsBank of AmericaBank of America's economists see a recession in the first half of 2023.
They are watching the S & P 500 as it trades below its 200-day moving average after lifting above that threshold briefly. The S & P 500 surpassed the average on Nov. 30 and fell below it Monday. The 200-day is now at 4,040 for the broad-market index, and the S & P 500 closed at 3,933.92 on Wednesday. A loss of short-term momentum "I think the real story is within the downturn, we're losing short-term momentum. Stockton said her indicators showed the flip in the S & P 500 Tuesday.
Morningstar's Dave Sekera says it's a hard time for retail, but many stocks are too undervalued. He explained that a number of major retailers are trading for half of their fair value. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Despite all that, Sekara thinks retail in general is getting oversold, with many stocks trading for just half of what Morningstar considers to be their fair value. Sekera named a series of stocks from across the retail and consumer technology spaces that have become overly cheap relative to Morningstar's fair value estimates.
Jordan Vonderhaar | Bloomberg | Getty Imageswatch nowSaylor was speaking on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" as FTX's demise roiled the crypto market. Bitcoin tumbled 19% in December, as investors rotated into assets deemed safer in a tumultuous economy. David Marcus, former head of crypto at Facebook parent Meta , used a phrase that would soon enter the lexicon. "It's during crypto winters that the best entrepreneurs build the better companies," Marcus wrote in a Jan. 24 tweet. Ryan Gilbert, founder of fintech venture firm Launchpad Capital, said the crypto world is facing a crisis of confidence after the FTX implosion.
China vows commitment to growth as pressure on economy mounts
  + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Renewed COVID lockdowns are weighing heavily on China's business activity, consumer confidence and financial markets, adding to a sharp downdraft on the global economy from surging inflation and rising interest rates. OPEN-DOOR POLICYYi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said China will continue to deregulate its markets. With China's zero-COVID policy expected to remain in place through at least the winter, or longer, its near-term growth outlook is bleak. After surprisingly high gross domestic product growth of 3.9% in the third quarter, Nomura expects growth to drop again, with zero or even negative sequential growth from the previous quarter. "We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 2.8% year-on-year for the fourth quarter with a corresponding sequential growth forecast at 0.0%."
Revenue growth slowed to 6% from 41% a year earlier as the company contends with a continued downdraft in online ad spending. Analysts were expecting an increase of about 3% in YouTube ad revenue, but it slid about 2% to $7.07 billion from $7.21 billion a year ago. Raymond James analysts also maintained their outperform rating, citing expectations for long-term ad revenue growth and Google Cloud momentum. Alphabet's report marks an ominous start to Big Tech earnings week for investors focused on the digital ad market, and analysts at Needham said it is likely bad news for Meta . Meta is scheduled to report earnings after the bell Wednesday.
Schatz of Heritage Capital looks for what he calls "high-flier" or "second-tier" technology stocks severely battered this year but pushing higher. Playing defense When looking outside of big tech, investors may also want to consider looking out for more defense-focused names. His picks include IBM, which trades at just 14 times forward earnings and offers a sticky revenue base. Schatz of Heritage Capital looks for what he calls "high-flier" or "second-tier" technology stocks severely battered this year but pushing higher. His picks include IBM, which trades at just 14 times forward earnings and offers a sticky revenue base.
We can at least run through what we know about this market and how market cycles tend to unfold more generally. Fewer individual S & P 500 stocks made a new 52-week low than in mid-June even as the index itself undercut the June low, a modest positive glimmer. The prior extreme lows on this chart were near noteworthy market lows, if not always right at them. The Stock Trader's Almanac notes that of the 23 S & P 500 bear markets since World War II, seven ended in October. The S & P 500 has failed in four tries of since late August even to get above the short-term 20-day moving average, most recently on Friday.
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