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☆ Bitcoin’s peak could be a harbinger of a stock market top next, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"Bitcoin & Nasdaq 100 reflect the speculative fever fostered by cheap money after dovish Fed pivots, such as occurred 4Q 2023," Bannister said. Shortly after, on March 28, the S & P 500 reached a new intraday all-time high . .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD If was indeed its peak, that could mean a weaker Nasdaq 100 for six months, Bannister said. Additionally the S & P 500, which is cap weighted, could struggle against the equal-weight S & P 500 for about six months. "When the equal-weighted S & P 500 out-performs the S & P 500, then value tends to out-perform growth," he said.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Nasdaq, Big Tech Nasdaq

☆ Dollar dips, yen draws support from Tokyo's jawboning
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday, owing to profit taking and pressured in part by a slightly stronger yen as Japanese government officials continued with their jawboning to defend the currency. The dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday, owing to profit taking and pressured in part by a slightly stronger yen as Japanese government officials continued with their jawboning to defend the currency. "But it's even tougher for the (dollar) to weaken when other central banks were sounding more dovish than a dovish Fed." The dollar index was last 0.02% lower at 104.20, while the euro rose 0.03% to $1.0840. "While they say that the fundamentals don't justify the price, the market's telling them something else," said IG's Sycamore.

Persons: he's, Tony Sycamore, Thierry Wizman, Shunichi Suzuki Organizations: New Zealand, Federal, IG, FX, Macquarie, Fed, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan's Locations: U.S, Japan, United States, Sycamore

☆ Dollar oscillates on less dovish Fed comments; China inflation data awaited
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In this photo illustration, a person is seen holding 100, 50, and 5 US dollar bills in his hand. The U.S. dollar was trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders digested less dovish remarks from policymakers overnight and looked ahead to fresh economic data from the United States. Attention was also on inflation data out of China in the Asian morning amid concerns about deflation in the world's second-largest economy. Forecasts suggest mixed signals, with year-on-year consumer price deflation expected to have intensified in January but month-over-month prices up at the fastest pace in a year. The offshore Chinese yuan was down 0.11% to $7.2036 per dollar ahead of the data.

Persons: Susan Collins, Tony Sycamore, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang Organizations: U.S, Boston, Traders, IG, Bank of, DBS Locations: United States, China, Asia

☆ Gold set for monthly dip on rate caution; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Spot gold edged 0.1% lower to $2,033.88 per ounce by 0513 GMT, after touching a two-week high of $2048.12 in the previous session. The chances of a March rate cut have dropped to 44% from about 90% a month ago. "With renewed hopes of a truce in Gaza, today's FOMC meeting runs the risk of disappointing doves and weighing on gold," said Simpson. Spot silver dropped 0.5% to $23.05 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.2% to $918.79, and palladium rose 0.2% to $977.67.

Persons: it's, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Jerome Powell Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, Fed, Index, Traders, Treasury Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S, Gaza

☆ Cramer: Earnings take center stage this week, but don't sleep on the Fed and Treasury
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

It's ironic: We are at a moment where supply of money and demand for goods are intersecting. We have two markets: the Treasury market and the equity market, with the first more powerful than the second, even if we can't tell that in the scrum of earnings announcements. If the Fed signals more rate cuts, then we will be set up for higher stock prices if the companies deliver good earnings. The possibility of higher earnings so far has been controlled by supply and demand and the disinflation it is breeding, which may continue this week. Hence the power of their earnings to generate the mask of a higher market price-to-earnings ratio.

Persons: We've, Josh Frost, —, disinflation, Tesla, Amy Hood, McCormick, Costco's Kirkland, Jerome Powell doesn't, Price, it's, Dupont —, Dupont, Josh Frost —, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jerome Powell, Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Devices, Microsoft, Apple, Financial Markets, Nvidia, Google, Walmart, Starbucks, Fed, Caterpillar, Boeing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange

☆ Premarket stocks: January’s turnaround could be a good omen for the year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York (CNN) — US stocks rallied powerfully last week after a topsy-turvy start to the month. History indicates that if the market can cling to those gains, that could bode well for the rest of the year. But last week, all three major indexes turned positive for the year as tech stocks led the broader market higher. The January barometer, introduced in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, states that however stocks perform during January, their year-end performance will follow suit. That is good news for the 85 million homeowning households that enjoyed further gains in housing wealth, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

Persons: turvy, bode, Bell, Anna Rathbun, we’re, it’s, we’ve, Bryan Mena, ” Joanne Hsu, Anna Bahney, Lawrence Yun, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, The University of Michigan’s, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York

☆ Dollar holds near one-month peak as dovish Fed bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar held close to a one-month peak versus major peers on Thursday after robust U.S. retail sales data overnight added to building expectations the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower interest rates. Australia's dollar weakened after data showed an unexpected decline in employment. Traders have trimmed the odds of a first Fed rate cut by March to 53.8%, down from 63.1% on Tuesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg there would likely be majority support among ECB officials for an interest rate cut in the summer, although she stressed they would be data-dependent. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar weakened after data showed a 65,100 drop in jobs for December, where economists had forecast a 17,600 increase.

Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sterling Organizations: Reserve, U.S, hawkish Bank, Japan, Traders, IG, Bloomberg, Bank of England, British, greenback Locations: Japan

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ Dollar down on day, but off lows after hotter than expected inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.

Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation goal in view
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brown | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: Rosemead , California

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation mission accomplished?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

Persons: Justin Sullivan, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: San Anselmo , California

We're selling 25 shares of Caterpillar (CAT) at roughly $293. Following Wednesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 290 shares of CAT, decreasing its weighting 2.82% from 3.05%. We're trimming some Caterpillar shares with the stock trading at a new all-time high. The stock made a strong move over the summer as those fears proved overblown and the company posted blowout earnings . However, raising a little extra cash when the market is this overbought is a discipline we are unwilling to break.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, we've, It's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Caterpillar, CAT, Bears, Federal, CNBC

Dec 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. Many will argue that the U.S. bond and rates markets have gotten far too carried away, and that the Fed will not ease so quickly and aggressively next year. But Fed policymakers are now in their 'blackout period' ahead of the December 12-13 policy meeting. In stark contrast to the Fed, rates futures markets are barely pricing in any rate cuts from the RBA next year at all.

Persons: Wall, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Treasury, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea

☆ Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta

☆ Asia stocks slip as dovish Fed cheer fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But it fell 0.2% in early trade on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures (.IXIC) were down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% early in the Asia day. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month. It was broadly steady at $1.0921 to the euro and 148.17 yen in early trade on Wednesday. In commodity markets Brent crude futures held just above their 50-day moving average at $82.64 a barrel.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Naka, Rabobank's, Philip Marey, Jonathan Petersen, Michele Bullock, Changpeng Zhao, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Thursday's, Federal Reserve, Fed, Capital Economics, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Wednesday Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, U.S, Singapore

☆ Treasury bonds erase this year's losses amid rebound from historic collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Treasury bonds have erased this year's losses amid a rebound from their historic collapse. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly flat. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly back where it was at the end of 2022. The hawkish stance sparked a historic crash in long-dated bonds, which suffered 46% losses between March 2020 and early October. And so far in the month of November alone, the Bloomberg US Treasury index is up 2.8%, its largest increase since March.

Persons: —, Treasurys, there's Organizations: Bloomberg US, Federal, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, YE24

☆ The stock market incorrectly priced in dovish Fed pivots 6 times in the last few years. Will this 7th time be any different?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But the market wrongly priced in a looser stance at least six times in the last few years, Deutsche Bank wrote. The S&P 500 advanced 3.6% that month as bond yields fell. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 jumped 6.6% in the week ending May 27, its strongest weekly performance of 2022. The S&P 500 surged 5.7% over October 3-4, marking the biggest two-day rally since April 2020. Yields on 2-year Treasurys tumbled, and the S&P 500 jumped 7% from a low in the immediate aftermath of SVB's collapse to the end of the March.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Service, Fed, Bank Locations: Ukraine

☆ Wall Street turns to Nvidia earnings in the week ahead as stocks try to keep their November momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.

Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan

☆ JPMorgan's stock guru Kolanovic says don't buy the market bounce, stocks are overvalued and consumer is in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S & P 500 is up more than 7% in November, but JPMorgan wrote to clients this week that the rebound is just a head fake. The biggest bank in the country thinks stocks are expensive and consumer spending is set to slow. Rather, "a significant part of this move was technical in nature, driven by momentum strategies and short covering." The hurdles for the stock market are manifold, according to JPMorgan. Instead, JPMorgan recommends a defensive posture in its model portfolio, underweighting stocks and bonds and overweighting cash and commodities.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Goldman Sachs says investors should go long commodities, sees 20% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should take a long position on key commodities with substantial returns expected in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. OPEC is also expected to keep its crude production cuts in place through most of 2024, according to Goldman. Gold and energy also are potential hedges against supply shocks from geopolitical risks and other developments, according to Goldman. The investment bank views an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz as unlikely, but if such an event did occur the rally would sizable and immediate. It is also gold's time to shine, the investment bank said, with prices rising 5% since the Israel-Hamas war started.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Brent, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Goldman, Federal Reserve Locations: Hormuz, Israel

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation will hit the Fed's 2% target by April and keep falling, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation is poised to hit the Fed's long-term 2% target by April of next year, according to ING Economics. ING said falling oil, rent, and vehicle prices are set to drive a continued period of disinflation. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur Chart of the Day is from ING Economics, which shows that inflation is set to hit the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% by April of next year and fall below 2% not long after that. Also helping drive inflation lower is a reduction in pricing power among businesses, which for the past two years relied on steady price hikes to fuel growth. The dynamic of falling inflation and a decline in economic growth represents the push and pull the stock market will likely face in the next year.

Persons: — Organizations: ING Economics, ING, Service, Fed, ING Economics ING

☆ Barclays sees Fed raising rate in January instead of December
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 5 (Reuters) - Barclays said it now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 basis point interest rate increase in January instead of an earlier expectation for a December hike. The brokerage cited softer-than-expected October employment data and dovish Fed commentary for the forecast push to next year. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, the highest level since January 2022, from 3.8% in September. Reporting by Roshan Abraham in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Roshan Abraham, Subhranshu Sahu Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Barclays, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington, Bengaluru

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation test looms for Fed doves
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

For now, the consistent and - for equity investors - very welcome refrain from Fed officials that caution is warranted before further rate rises has drowned out any concerns about data. But just how quickly markets turned at the start of the week shows how quickly they could turn again. Despite the dovish trimmings, the core Fed message remains that rates will rise as far as they have to in order to rein in inflation. Fed regional bank heads Lorie Logan, Susan Collins and Raphael Bostic have the chance to air their views in remarks at separate events today. It's a big day for British data as well, with GDP and industrial production due first thing.

Persons: Kevin Buckland, Lorie Logan, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Huw Pill, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Sam Holmes Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Hong, Reuters, Bank of England, IMF, Bank, U.S . CPI, Thomson Locations: Asia, Washington, Marrakesh

☆ Dollar loses steam ahead of Fed meeting minutes, U.S. inflation test
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday the central bank did not need to raise borrowing costs any further, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari followed with similar remarks later in the day. U.S. Treasury yields have similarly tracked lower following the dovish Fed comments, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, hitting a one-month low of 4.9260% on Tuesday. The focus now turns to minutes of the Fed's September policy meeting out later on Wednesday, which could offer further clues on its interest rate outlook. So I think markets are a little bit unsure whether that report is real," said CBA's Kong. The offshore yuan, which touched a roughly one-month high of 7.2700 per dollar on Tuesday, last bought 7.2839.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Sterling, Thierry Wizman, Carol Kong, CBA's Organizations: Treasury, dovish, Atlanta Fed Bank, Minneapolis Fed, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, Asia, China

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