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Search resuls for: "doomsayers"


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AI will overtake many tasks, and some roles, he says, leaving people free for more creative work. This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Zach Smith, founder of Nova AI. But the path to my dream career – founder of a newly launched startup called Nova AI – wasn't straightforward or easy for me. And the people who do them should prepare themselves to be shifted towards different, more creative tasks. While I don't think that QA engineers are going to be entirely replaced, all of the manual functions they do will be automated.
Persons: Zach Smith, Gayle McDowell, I've, there's, it's Organizations: Morning, Nova, Google, Georgia Institute of Technology, Nova AI
NEW YORK — When the bond chief of the world's biggest asset manager looks at the U.S. right now, he sees a lot to like. A combination of resilient government, corporate and consumer spending, improving homebuilder data, $1.5 trillion in excess savings and low unemployment tell BlackRock's Rick Rieder that the American economy is faring better than many expected. "I think the U.S. economy's in much better shape than people give [it] credit" for, Rieder said Tuesday at an event at BlackRock's New York headquarters. Talk of a pending recession has been building as the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases ripple through the economy. "When people talk about, 'We're going to a recession or a deep recession,' it's pretty unusual [or] almost impossible when you have an unemployment rate of 3.4%," Rieder said.
So they might also consider another potential scenario: Ever since President Richard Nixon de-linked the dollar from gold, doomsayers have predicted the imminent demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Having the world reserve currency has allowed the United States to run very large budget, merchandise trade and current account deficits for decades. Nations with dollar surpluses can’t sit on them; they recycle them as investments in the United States. That is why New York has the most liquid financial markets in the world. These strong markets in turn encourage many foreign central banks to hold their assets in New York as well.
The dollar's dominance isn't at risk, three currency experts told Insider. Vocal observers, like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have warned that the threat of de-dollarization is real, as countries like China take measures to supplant the dollar. They debunked five myths and misconceptions that are commonly touted by dollar doomsayers:1. The dollar is losing its stance as the top currency in global tradeThis claim also isn't supported by data. Though the percentage of dollar reserves has slipped, he estimates it would take around 24 years for global dollar reserves to drop another 12%.
Stocks have been churning in a narrow channel on low volume for weeks, the S & P 500 about flat on Friday, flat for the week and barely changed this month. Yet rather than finding comfort in the gentle action anchored to familiar price levels, investors are generally frustrated or confused by it. As Bespoke Investment Group summed it up after Friday's close, "For all the talk about whether we're in a new bull market or still stuck in a bear, at this point it seems like neither. All but one of the prior 13 instances saw the S & P 500 higher six and 12 months later (beyond the initial six-month period). This is an organic insulator of S & P 500 volatility.
Dollar collapse fears are bogus as the greenback can't be replaced anytime soon, Brad McMillan said. A lot of the talk is often from doomsayers trying to push gold, Commonwealth Financial's CIO said. The dollar "is not only the established choice and, in most cases, the smart choice, but it is the only choice." "Frankly, a lot of the talk is nonsense designed to panic you into buying something the doomsters are trying to sell, often gold," he wrote. "As far as the markets are concerned, the dollar is still where it has always been.
Seemingly overnight, episodes of Fridman's podcast began racking up millions of views. YouTube/Lex FridmanIn his podcast, Fridman asks world-renowned scientists, historians, artists, and engineers a series of wide-eyed questions ("Who is God? But recently, "The Lex Fridman Podcast" has become a haven for a growing — and powerful — sector looking to dismantle years of "wokeness" and cancel culture. Twitter"The Lex Fridman Podcast" offered a rare opportunity to listen to four-hour conversations with luminaries of tech and science. Bhaskar Sunkara, the founder and publisher of the socialist magazine Jacobin who appeared on Fridman's podcast in December, praised Fridman's interviewing style.
Wes Crill believes the stock market may have already bottomed, according to historical precedence. In the long term, he's bullish on value stocks once again taking the reigns as market leaders. "In fact, the average return for value stocks was a little bit higher in periods where the overall stock market was positive." Across Wall Street, Crill's not the only one with a longer-term overweight towards value stocks. Instead, he says investors should stick to what history dictates works best: value stocks over a long time horizon.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Andrew Slimmon says that stocks are set to rally further. The economy is proving to be "far more resilient" than what the doomsayers had projected, says managing director and senior portfolio manager Slimmon. Stocks went through a difficult year in 2022, with the S & P 500 plummeting nearly 20%. Slimmon predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates a few more times, before pausing. Stock picks Although growth stocks such as tech have bounced back this year, Slimmon says the "real opportunity" is in cyclical stocks.
One type of data point to be wary of involves vehicles for confirmation, which use old data to confirm what an analyst already believes. The index is also revamped after every recession — given new weights and components so the new index perfectly signals the recession that just happened. Let's assume the ISM signals a turning point in the business cycle when it runs below 50 for three consecutive months. In a bull market, when rising stocks lift all boats, these analysts are still making money while arguing the downside just "hasn't happened yet." No single data point is a substitute for good judgment, which is the best leading indicator of all.
Certainly, Friday's inflation data, included in the personal income and spending report, showed a marked deceleration in so-called personal consumption expenditure inflation. Over the past five months, many measures of inflation have fallen more quickly than forecast, including those most closely watched by the Federal Reserve. It now risks doing too much and pushing the U.S. economy into an entirely unnecessary recession next year. That comes at a time when seasonal and historical patterns — like the presidential cycle — favor a positive stock market performance in 2023. First, as was the case in 2021, U.S. population growth was abysmal this year, rising only 0.4%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Jim Cramer says these 7 stocks will be winners in 2023
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday gave investors a list of stocks that he believes will perform well next year. The central bank earlier this month raised interest rates by 50 basis points and projected raising rates to as high as 5.1%. "I see so many segments of the market that could be potential winners in 2023, it's hard to take these supposedly sophisticated doomsayers seriously," he said. But despite his enthusiasm for health care, off-price retail and machinery stocks, there's one industry that Cramer plans to stay away from. Disclaimer: Cramer's Charitable Trust owns shares of Eli Lilly, Humana, Johnson & Johnson, TJX Companies and Morgan Stanley.
JP Morgan Asset Management sees a better 2023 for stocks, even as big Wall Street banks warn of sharp falls. "The worst of the market volatility is behind us and both stocks and bonds look increasingly attractive," JP Morgan Asset said. More interest-rate rises look limited, bringing some cheer for markets in 2023, top asset manager Janus Henderson agreed. Here's a selection of commentary and predictions from the two asset managers on 2023 investment prospects. JP Morgan Asset Management"Our base case sees a moderate recession in most major developed economies in 2023.
There's still hope for the crypto industry despite FTX's collapse, said Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Its crash flushes out bad actors, he said, adding bitcoin has historically delivered good returns. But do I think crypto is dead? "The mistake was to say that banks were untouchable and that's what happened with crypto now," Lee said. He acknowledged the pressure on the crypto industry, saying it's been a "terrible year" for the sector.
This ultra-resilient economy stands in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive attempts to quell inflation by slowing growth through aggressive interest rates. Those higher rates, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates to tame soaring inflation, are beginning to choke the housing market. “The surge in mortgage rates and extremely high housing prices has led to massive pullback in first time home purchasing and has pushed investors to the side. But housing is a bellwether for the rest of the economy, and these contractions will inevitably weigh on broader US growth. Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) fell short of earnings expectations last quarter, citing a slowing digital ad market.
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