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☆ We're upping our price target on Costco after another steady quarter fortifies our thesis
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

The report didn't blow us away, but it still offered plenty of reminders on why Costco investors should stick around. Total revenue in its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter totaled $79.7 billion, missing analysts' expectations of $79.97 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Costco has succeeded for decades, but the high inflation of recent years has made the company's value-focused ethos really shine. Put it all together, we're increasing our price target on the stock to $950 a share from $875. In the quarter, Costco's membership renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada came in at 92.9%, a tick lower than the 93% rate observed in the third fiscal quarter, while worldwide held constant at 90.5%.

Persons: Gary Millerchip, Ron Vachris, Millerchip, it's, Kirkland, Costco's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Costco, LSEG, Wholesale, Walmart, Club, Amazon, Costco's, Kirkland, Kirkland Signature, Management, U.S, CNBC Locations: Costco's, Yemen, U.S, Canada, Maine, Richmond , California

☆ A big Fed meeting looms in the week ahead as economic concerns percolate
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday — and is is widely anticipated to make its first interest rate cut after embarking on a hiking campaign in March 2022. As it is, stocks are headed for a winning week ahead of the meeting. On Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed markets were split how big the rate cut would be. Investors will also watch what Fed policymakers will signal in its summary of economy projections regarding future policy moves. He worries that stocks will rally heading into the central bank meeting, with investors possibly selling the news afterward.

Persons: It's, disinflation, Chadha, CNBC's, Dave Sekera, Giuseppe Sette, Sette, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Morningstar's Sekera, Bank Asset Management Group's Bill Northey, Mills, homebuilder Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Morningstar, U.S, Bank Asset Management Group's, Olive, Darden, FedEx, Index, Retail, Manufacturing, Housing, Philadelphia Fed Locations: U.S, Olive Garden, NAHB

☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly. Where prices have deflatedFor example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data. Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data.

Persons: Stephen Brown, it's, Sarah House, They've, women's outerwear, Brown Organizations: North, Capital Economics, Finance, Social Security, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, International Air Transport Association Locations: U.S, North America, Wells Fargo, China

☆ Dollar tenses for data verdict on rate cut risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The greenback was idling at 147.17 yen , having briefly touched a one-week high of 148.23 overnight before profit-taking emerged. More important will be the consumer price report and retail sales for July which could have a material impact on whether the Fed eases by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September. The former outcome would likely lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, while the latter would have the opposite effect. The futures market clearly still sees recession as a risk with 101 basis points of Fed easing priced in by Christmas, and more than 120 basis points for next year. "Although the trend is moderating, inflation is too high for the Fed to justify the market pricing 100bp of rate cuts between September and year-end."

Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Swiss, Atlanta Fed, ANZ

☆ The Sahm Rule Hints at Recession, But Don’t Panic - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Do you remember the 2023 recession? But back in 2022 there were so many confident predictions of imminent recession that I wonder whether some people have the vague sense that they must have come true. I could have told you at the time that this analogy was wrong, and in fact I did. The inflation doomerism of 2022, I’m tempted to say, was the least responsible economic projection, at least by mainstream economists, made in the past 40 years. When it inverts — when long-term rates are lower than short-term rates — this has historically predicted a recession (recessions are the shaded areas on the chart):

Persons: I’m

☆ Stock market today: Indexes struggle for direction as investors await wave of data
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks closed mixed as investors awaited a wave of data this week, from earnings to the July jobs report. 171 S&P 500 companies, including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, will report Q2 earnings this week. AdvertisementUS stock indexes closed mixed on Monday as investors awaited a massive wave of data this week. AdvertisementAmid the steady stream of earnings data, investors will also turn their attention to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe jobs report will help inform the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy going forward, as the Fed balances a steady economy with a falling inflation rate.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Fawad Razaqzada, Forex.com Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Service, Federal, Business

☆ The big rotation trade is from cash to stocks - and it could help push the S&P 500 up 17% by year-end, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS said a major rotation from cash and bonds into stocks could happen later this year. UBS' Jason Draho reiterated his bull case for the S&P 500 to rise 17% into year-end. AdvertisementThe cash-to-stocks trade is the more durable rotation investors should be watching, UBS said. "We still recommend that investors position for lower rates, seek quality growth stocks, and seize the AI opportunity," Draho said. There will be a rotation trade in that scenario, but from cash and bonds into stocks," Draho said.

Persons: Jason Draho, —, there's, Draho, it's Organizations: UBS, Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Oil prices rise as investors look for signs U.S. rate cuts to begin
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An aerial view of Phillips 66 oil refinery is seen in Linden, New Jersey, United States. Oil prices rose in early trade on Monday as investors keep a lookout for signs of a rate-cut cycle expected to begin as soon as September. "Since the June FOMC meeting, inflation and labor market data have signaled that disinflation and labor market rebalancing are in place, which we expect will allow the Fed to begin its interest rate cutting cycle in September," ANZ Research said in a note. Slower-than-expected economic growth of 4.7% for China in the second quarter sparked concerns last week over the country's demand for oil and continues to weigh on prices. The 60-point document's publication follows last week's closed-door meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee that takes place roughly every five years.

Persons: Phillips, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Fed, ANZ Research, U.S . Federal Reserve, Market, Republican, Communist Party's Central Committee Locations: Linden , New Jersey, United States, U.S, China

☆ UBS just raised its S&P 500 price target for the 4th time this year. Here's how it says stocks can soar 17% by the end of the year.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS increased its S&P 500 year-end price target to 5,900, marking the fourth increase from the bank this year. It added that the S&P 500 could surge 17% to 6,500 by year-end in a bull-case scenario. AdvertisementUBS is once again raising its year-end price target for the S&P 500. UBS initially had a year-end price target of 4,850. Those earnings and price target estimates would represent a historically high price-to-earnings multiple for the S&P 500, but it's warranted, according to Lefkowitz.

Persons: —, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz materializes Organizations: UBS, Service

☆ IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said "the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path." The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts "could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting."

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, CNBC's, Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, Traders, U.S . Labor Department Locations: U.S

☆ IMF upgrades UK growth forecast in another boost to new Labour government
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its 2024 growth outlook for the U.K. to 0.7% from 0.5%, providing a further boost to the country's new government. Looking ahead, the Washington, D.C.-based IMF reiterated its forecast for 1.5% U.K. growth in 2025 in the July update of its World Economic Outlook. Investment bank Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, to 1.6%. Other economies given a 2024 growth upgrade by the IMF on Tuesday included the euro zone, which it lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 0.9%, Spain, up 0.5 percentage point to 2.4%, and China, up 0.4 percentage point to 5%. It lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6%.

Persons: Taylor, Goldman Sachs, Keir Starmer, Goldman, — CNBC's Sophie Kiderlin, Vicky McKeever Organizations: Nine, Monetary Fund, D.C, Investment, Labour, European Union . Deutsche Bank, Friday, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies, Bank of England, Reuters, IMF Locations: Ruskin Park, London, England, Washington, brightening, Spain, China, U.S, Asia

☆ Underlying concerns are still there around services inflation, says IMF's Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnderlying concerns are still there around services inflation, says IMF's Pierre-Olivier GourinchasPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on disinflation, whether September's too soon to expect a rate cut, and more.

Persons: IMF's Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, September's

☆ Volatile yen keeps markets on edge as intervention risks swirl
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A sheet of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The Japanese currency swung between gains and losses in early trading before trading slightly weaker. It spiked nearly 3% to as high as 157.40 immediately after the consumer inflation report on Thursday. "Currency interventions should certainty be rare in a floating rate market, but we'll need to respond appropriately to excessive volatility or disorderly moves," Kanda said. Tokyo intervened at the end of April and in early May, spending roughly 9.8 trillion yen ($61.55 billion) to support the currency.

Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda, It's, Siong Sim, Charu Chanana, Matt Simpson, Menon, Donald Trump, Sterling Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Asahi, Nikkei, Bank of Singapore, U.S, CPI, Saxo, Federal Reserve, City, Traders, Presidential, Trump Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ Kelly Evans: The cuts are coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Kelly Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Seeing the June CPI print with a negative sign. You can be pretty sure now that Fed rate cuts are coming. Core CPI for the past three months annualized is now running just 1.1%. In fact, core goods prices have dropped 12 out of the past 13 months in the CPI. We could actually be at a pretty nice economic inflection point right now--but only if the labor market doesn't keep slowing.

Persons: we've, we're, Julia Coronado, J.P, Morgan, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Gary Cohn, Kelly Twitter, @KellyCNBC, @realkellyevans Organizations: CPI, Treasury, Trump, CNBC, Nasdaq

☆ Stock market today: Indexes hover near records ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stock indexes are hovering near record highs ahead of the testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Meanwhile, the stock market has continued to strike new highs with help from its tech sector, with Nvidia rising 2% on Monday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia Locations: Here's

☆ Stock market today: Indexes inch higher to new records after Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors tuned into Fed Chair Powell's testimony, but his comments did not shift interest-rate outlooks. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 breached new records on Tuesday, though trades remained muted in the broader stock market. Monetary-policy outlooks were little changed after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress. In his remarks, Powell highlighted mounting data of a cooling job market, and noted that the Fed wanted to see further signs of disinflation. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:Here's what else happened today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Persons: —, Jerome Powell's, Powell, John Lynch Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Federal, Fed, Comerica

☆ How to trade this week’s CPI report, according to JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 would increase 0.25%-0.75% under this outcome. 15% chance — CPI rises 0.25%-0.3%: The S & P 500 would drop 0.75%-1.25% under this scenario, as such a report could show shelter prices increasing. 15% chance — CPI gains by 0.1%-0.15%: This outcome would be viewed favorably by investors as it could signal accelerating "goods disinflation." The S & P 500 would jump 1%-1.5%. 2.5% chance — CPI rises more than 0.3%: Such a hot inflation report would spark a 1.25%-2.5% sell-off in the S & P 500, JPMorgan traders think.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, CPI, JPMorgan

☆ Companies are going bankrupt at the fastest pace since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

When, earlier this year, hope was much stronger for a quick and significant reduction to interest rates, bankruptcies remained more subdued, S&P previously noted. As the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at the 5.25%-5.50% level for nearly a year now, some analysts have called the central bank out for risking unnecessary damage to the economy. AdvertisementYet, deteriorating consumer spending is also grinding down on corporate prospects. AdvertisementAmong notable June bankruptcies tracked by S&P Global, were the electric vehicle maker Fisker, as well as Redbox DVD rental operator Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment. That's followed by healthcare and industrials, S&P Global reported.

Persons: —, Tacking, Mark Zandi, Zandi, That's Organizations: Service, P Global Intelligence, Business, Global, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed, Nike, Walgreens, P Global, Soul Entertainment

☆ Companies are going bankrupt at the fastest past since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewA historic surge of corporate bankruptcies is hitting Wall Street, with this year's volume of filings already above levels seen in the past 13 years, S&P Global Intelligence reported. When, earlier this year, hope was much stronger for a quick and significant reduction to interest rates, bankruptcies remained more subdued, S&P previously noted. AdvertisementYet, deteriorating consumer spending is also grinding down on corporate prospects. AdvertisementAmong notable June bankruptcies tracked by S&P Global, were the electric vehicle maker Fisker, as well as Redbox DVD rental operator Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment. That's followed by healthcare and industrials, S&P Global reported.

Persons: —, Tacking, Mark Zandi, Zandi, That's Organizations: Service, P Global Intelligence, Business, Global, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed, Nike, Walgreens, P Global, Soul Entertainment

☆ Inflation will be in focus in the week ahead as stocks attempt to sustain all-time highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal

☆ Asian shares shaky as investors wary before US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Risk sentiment was also capped as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept near-term U.S. rate cut expectations in check in a boost to the dollar. The comments along with data showing a stable housing market kept expectations in check over when and by how much the Fed will cut rates. Markets are pricing in 47 basis points of easing this year, with a rate cut in September pegged at 66% probability, CME FedWatch tool showed. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit against six peers, was steady at 105.64, while the euro was at $1.0715. The yen touched a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar on April 29, prompting Tokyo to spend roughly 9.8 trillion in late April and early May to support the currency.

Persons: Androniki, Lisa Cook, Cook, Michelle Bowman, Selena Ling, OCBC, OCBC's Ling, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, . Federal, Reuters, Bank of Japan's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific

☆ Economy is enjoying benefits of disinflation without risk of imminent recession: Michael Kantrowitz
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy is enjoying benefits of disinflation without risk of imminent recession: Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, why he believes we're in a 'softilocks' scenario right now, and more.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, we're

☆ Housing inflation will need to come down before the Fed can think about cutting rates, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With shelter inflation "sticky" at a 5.4% year over level, Gapen said it could be months before "greater confidence" is achieved. "We think the Fed is unlikely to achieve the confidence it needs to begin rate cuts until shelter inflation takes a step lower," he said. Monthly housing inflation readings in the PCE measure have been running at either 0.5% or 0.4% since March 2023. We don't target housing prices, for example," Powell said. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, a nonvoter on the FOMC this year, on Tuesday singled out the "long-term stubbornness of shelter inflation."

Persons: Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Patrick Harker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Commerce, Philadelphia Fed

☆ The good economic news this week was just that … good news
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —“Good news is bad news” has been a common refrain for a while now. When economic reports are released that are solid, they have all too often been clouded with concerns that good news for the economy actually means a longer wait before the Federal Reserve rolls out rate cuts. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index cooled more than expected in May, with prices holding flat on the month for the first time since July 2022. The markets don’t seem to be buying the one-cut plan, especially after the Producer Price Index on Thursday showed that wholesale prices fell from April to May and the BLS’ Import and Export Price Index showed that US imports prices fell 0.4% in May after rising 0.9% in April. And more good news is likely on the way this next week and later this month, Brusuelas said.

Persons: CNN —, ”, Joe Brusuelas, —, ” Brusuelas, spoilsport, Price, ” Chris Rupkey, “, ” Rupkey, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, RSM US, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent, Consumer, Index, BLS, Price, FwdBonds, CPI, PPI

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge lower after hitting records on cooling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks dipped on Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached record highs four days in a row. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates at its September FOMC meeting. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Friday's decline in stocks was preceded by a sharp decline in European stocks, as recent election results continue to make waves in France and Germany. The market currently expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates at its September FOMC meeting.

Persons: Loretta Mester, —, DAX, Austan, Mester Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Investors, Federal Reserve, Service, University of Michigan, Fed, Here's Locations: France, Germany

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