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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: We've been in contact with banks that have high CRE exposureFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.
Persons: Powell, We've, Jerome Powell Organizations: Financial Services
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: Systemic economic risks to the CRE market are manageableFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.
Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: Financial Services
New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have named a slate of stocks to buy as March gets underway. The firm said investors should bet on the market's momentum by scooping up shares of undervalued companies. They include HashiCorp , Rivian Automotive , Dell Technologies, Sun Country Airlines and Huntington Bancshares. The stock is down 26% over the last 12 months, but the firm said investors should buy the dip. HashiCorp Analyst Sanjit Singh upgraded the cloud-computing infrastructure company to overweight from equal weight earlier this week.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, scooping, Ravi Shanker, Shanker, Sanjit Singh, Singh, Adam Jonas, , Jonas, Rivian, Dell, , Huntington, HBAN Organizations: CNBC, Rivian Automotive, Dell Technologies, Sun Country Airlines, Huntington, Amazon, Rivian, Airlines Locations: Huntington Bancshares
New York CNN —It’s no secret that commercial real estate (CRE) has become a source of stress for banks. Regional banks were on high alert recently after New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported steeper-than-expected future losses on commercial real estate loans. So why is it that the smaller, regional banks are so much more exposed to commercial real estate? Office real estate is among the bank’s smaller commercial real estate subcomponents. Robbins of Valley National Bank told CNN “we remain comfortable with our diverse and granular commercial real estate portfolio.”Office real estate is just one component of commercial real estate, albeit the most worrisome to banks and economists.
Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, Banks, BankRegData, Flagstar, , JPMorgan Chase, , Michael Brochstein, it’s, Ira Robbins, Robbins, CNN “, Carlos Barria, Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Flagstar Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Bank, JPMorgan, Getty, Valley National Bank, CNN, Fitch, FDIC, Reuters Locations: New York, Morristown , New Jersey
That's one of 10 investing predictions for the next 10 years by the Trivariate Research market strategist. "We have always said 'we prefer a basket of high-quality US growth equities'" when asked about crypto, Parker said in a note over the weekend. "Missing the appreciation of the asset class is not good, but participating in US growth equities has been more than adequate." "Because it is just a proxy for risk taking, investors can mirror the exposure of a basket of crypto through low quality hyper growth stocks," he added. "This sector checks all the boxes … We think there will be continued consolidation, so owning oil-sensitive energy stocks that are mid-cap likely will prove prudent," he said.
Persons: Adam Parker, That's, Bitcoin, Parker Organizations: Trivariate Research, Metrics, Own U.S, Mining, BHP Group, Microsoft, BHP, Vale, Southern Copper, Marathon Petroleum, Treasury, U.S . Treasury Locations: CRE, New York, San Francisco, Chicago, decarbonization, Freeport, McMoRan, Australia, Rio Tinto, Greece, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal
AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is worried about expensive stocks and homes, sinking office prices, shaky banks, and cash-strapped consumers. The S&P 500 soared to record highs this year as investors bet that the Fed will conquer inflation and start cutting rates within months, pushing stocks higher and staving off a recession. Fed economists said during their latest meeting that the value of multi-family homes, offices, and other commercial real estate could decline further. AdvertisementThe commercial real estate sector certainly faces a raft of headwinds. But its experts are clearly concerned about lofty stocks and home values, further commercial real estate fallout, vulnerable banks, and struggling consumers as potential threats to a soft landing.
Persons: They've Organizations: New, New York Community, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: New York, Silicon
US commercial real estate is headed for a $2 trillion wall of maturing debt in the next few years. America's office market is in flux and prices have further to fall amid "secular" challenges facing the sector, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. Commercial real estate pain has been a source of anxiety for the US banking sector, and regional banks in particular. Thus, the challenges facing CRE in general and office loans in particular are intricately linked to the regional banking sector." Real estate pros have been sounding the alarm on commercial real estate since early 2023 when the sector was in the spotlight following a spate of regional bank failures.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's Organizations: Real Capital, National Association of Realtors, Mortgage, Association, New York Community Bank
Read previewThe biggest players in the global economy are on different trajectories, and markets around the world are reflecting the shifting landscape. "Signs of decoupling are present in global growth, trade, and equity markets," Bank of America strategists wrote in a Friday note. AdvertisementTo that point, the outlook for the Euro area looks softer. BofA expects Euro area growth at 0.4% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. Growth forecasts for US, Euro Area, and China.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, BofA, SPX Organizations: Service, Bank, Business, Bank of America, Wall, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of America Global Locations: China, There's, Germany, Spain, Europe
Yet, nearing mission-accomplished on inflation won't be the reason the central bank cuts rates, according to one top economist. Instead, Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, says that the ongoing commercial real estate crisis will force the Fed to cut rates as early as May. Lessons from the 2008 crisis show that the Fed should cut sooner rather than later to avoid the worst of the pain, Sri-Kumar said. The fears stem in part from exposure to commercial real estate. "The commercial real estate problem is also now in Europe.
Persons: , Komal, Kumar, Lehman, Janet Yellen, it's, China's, Jerome Powell, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Sri, Kumar, Business, Lehman Brothers, York Community Bank, Evergrande Locations: China, Europe, Japan
The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.
Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells
And yet Wall Street is suddenly freaking out about bad real estate loans and empty office buildings. One regional lender — New York Community Bancorp — has seen its stock price implode and its credit rating slashed to junk in part because of its exposure to bad office loans. Japan’s Aozora Bank startled investors by blaming bad loans linked to US offices for a projected loss. That’s a major problem for an industry like real estate known for piling on debt. Importantly, Zandi said these bank failures will be limited to smaller lenders — the ones sitting on suddenly shaky office loans.
Persons: , ” they’re, It’s, , Ed Mills, Raymond James, gameplan, Paul Volcker, That’s, Spencer Platt, ” Alessandro DiNello, NYCB, Powell, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, , ” Mills, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Zandi, ” Banks Organizations: New, New York CNN, , York Community Bancorp, Japan’s, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Regulators, New York Community Bancorp, York Community Bank, Getty, Moody’s, CNN Locations: New York, sweatpants, Washington, Brooklyn, New York City
The regional bank reported disappointing earnings, stoking fears of commercial real estate trouble. AdvertisementA smaller lender is facing a firesale of its stock fueled by concerns about its stability, echoing the regional-banking problems last year that stoked fears of a full-blown financial crisis and commercial real estate meltdown. AdvertisementThe increases hit the value of their fixed-income and commercial real estate portfolios. In particular, commercial real estate is under pressure from ongoing remote working, tighter credit availability as lenders have pulled back, and higher debt costs, all of which have weighed on asset values. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers this week she expects the commercial real estate pressures to "put a loss of stress" on property owners, although she expected it to be manageable, Bloomberg reported.
Persons: stoking, , stoked, NYCB, Banks, Moody's, Wall, Thomas Cangemi, pare, Janet Yellen Organizations: Community Bancorp, Service, New York Community Bancorp, Flagstar Bank, Signature Bank, Valley Bank, Silvergate, Bloomberg, Federal
Jefferies initiates Sprout Social as buy Jefferies said the social media software provider is a market leader. Morgan Stanley names Huntington Bancshares a top pick Morgan Stanley said it likes the regional bank's low exposure to commercial real estate. Morgan Stanley reiterates Nvidia as overweight Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Nvidia to $750 per share from $603. Morgan Stanley downgrades Aptiv to underweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said it sees slowing growth for the automotic tech company. Jefferies initiates ZoomInfo as buy Jefferies initiates the software data company with a buy and says it sees new customer growth.
Persons: Redburn, Key, it's, Gordon, Gordon Haskett, Jefferies, Steven Madden, Morgan Stanley, Huntington, Morgan Stanley downgrades Aptiv, Piper Sandler, Piper, Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, DA Davidson, it's bullish, Oppenheimer Organizations: Services, Bank of America, Google, Leerink, SPT, Citi, JPMorgan downgrades New York Community Bancorp, JPMorgan, Jefferies, Nvidia, Crown Holdings, Holdings, Civitas Resources, Corp, Vans, VF Corp, Bank of America downgrades, York Community Bancorp, New, Apple, Apple's Locations: F24E, New York
There are opportunities in the banking sector despite a rise in volatility and concern over steep losses at some lenders, according to fund manager Cole Smead. The stock makes up 1.36% of the Smead Value Fund . He believes UniCredit's share buybacks while the shares trade below book value will drive book value growth higher than the current 8% return on equity. "When you buy back shares below book, there is a multiplier effect on book value growth," Smead explained. The fund manager expects UniCredit will trade above book value over the next 12-18 months and use its stock to pursue further acquisitions.
Persons: Cole Smead, Switzerland's, Julius Baer, Smead, CNBC's, RoE, UniCredit Organizations: Smead Capital, Western Alliance Bank, KBW, New York Community Bancorp, Investors, Western Alliance Bank's, CNBC Pro Locations: Europe, U.S
But while the last crisis was all about interest rate risk, this one revolves around the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. What’s happening: After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. The increase was driven partly by expected losses on commercial real estate loans, it said. “As losses from a [commercial real estate] loan portfolio accumulate, they can spill over into the broader financial system,” they wrote. “There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged and we’re working with them,” he said.
Persons: It’s, Goldman Sachs, Anna Cooban, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Gary Gensler, , Chip Somodevilla, She’s, Powell, , ” McDonald’s, McDonald’s, Jordan Valinsky, Samantha Murphy Kelly, “ We’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, US Regional Bank, Japan’s Aozora Bank, Deutsche Bank, Canadian Public Pension Investment Board, Boston Properties, US Securities and Exchange, Financial, Biden, Senate, CBS, Verizon, Old Telephone Service, landlines, UK, Consumers, CNN, California Public Utilities Commission Locations: New York, Manhattan, Boston, Washington ,, East, United States, California, France, California ”
What’s really going on with bank stocks
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Word quickly spread on Wall Street that the regional bank was under pressure, igniting a bout of selling of other bank stocks over fears of contagion. The KBW Regional Banking Index closed down 6% on Wednesday. Unlike many fellow regional banks, it held on to the vast majority of its deposits. He also highlighted that the banks’ losses were tied to faulty office building loans. The selloff that hit other regional bank stocks is “likely overdone given idiosyncratic factors tied to NYCB,” Bank of America analysts said in a note on Thursday.
Persons: Zions, NYCB, Thomas Cangemi, Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, CNN he’s, , ” NYCB, That’s, It’s, isn’t, ” Marinac, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, New York Community Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, York Community Bancorp, Bank, CNN, ” Bank of America, Aozora Bank, First Republic, Valley Bank Locations: New York, ZION, York
The bank's Tokyo-listed shares fell for a second day, tracking losses in U.S. regional lenders overnight. Aozora Bank shares hit near three-year lows Friday, as investors continued to hammer the Japanese commercial lender after it downgraded its annual outlook to a loss on bad U.S. commercial real estate loans. "U.S. real estate lending for around 10% of (its) total lending with a CET1 ratio of below 7% due to unrealized losses on securities has no precedent." Aozora's update came shortly after U.S. regional bank New York Community Bancorp announced a surprise net loss of $252 million for the fourth quarter. "However, higher losses tied to commercial real estate office exposure, increase in criticized loans tied to multi-family CRE [commercial real estate] are a reminder of ongoing credit normalization that we are likely to witness across the industry," Bank of America U.S. banking analysts wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Aozora, Masahiko Sato, Sato, NYCB, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Aozora Bank, Japan's Aozora Bank, Nikkei, Equity, SMBC Nikko Securities, New, New York Community Bancorp, Signature Bank, Bank of America, Bank of America U.S Locations: Tokyo Japan, Tokyo, U.S, New York
The New York City property exec and veteran real estate broker pointed to potential trouble heading for the US office space, thanks to the plunging demand for office buildings since the pandemic, and poor lending conditions across the commercial real estate sector. AdvertisementExperts have been warning of trouble in the commercial real estate sector for the last year as credit conditions in the economy tighten. Many commercial real estate mortgages are financed at interest rates around 3.5%-4%. New York City alone has around 100 million square feet of empty office space, Knakal estimated. Office buildings, meanwhile, could soon double the price decline they saw in 2023, the real estate firm Cohen & Steers estimated.
Persons: , Bob Knakal, Knakal, Banks, Cohen, Steers Organizations: Service, Business, New, CNBC, National Association of Realtors . New Locations: New York City, National Association of Realtors . New York City
Read previewThis year will be when the distress brewing in commercial real estate finally reaches its breaking point, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to pessimism that has clouded the commercial real estate sector for the past year. Around $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured in 2023, though fallout was muted as many loans were granted extensions, the firm said. Meanwhile, property investors like Brookfield are raising cash to potentially buy cheap commercial real estate properties that hit the market. AdvertisementSome commentators have warned of an even more severe crash coming for commercial real estate.
Persons: , Kiran Raichura, Raichura, Kyle Bass Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Business, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Brookfield
ECB says property slump could last years in threat to lenders
  + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
An ECB report which examines threats to financial stability underscored heightened concern over a property boom that is now unravelling in countries such as Germany and Sweden. Commercial property prices have been hit by economic weakness and high interest rates over the last year, challenging the sector's profitability and business model, the ECB said. The sector is not big enough to create a systemic risk for lenders, but could increase shocks across the financial system and greatly impact the financial firms, from investment funds to insurance firms, collectively known as shadow banks. The ECB issued its report as deep cracks emerged in the property market of the euro zone's top economy, Germany. Commercial real estate transactions were down 47% in the first half of 2023, compared with the same period in 2022.
Persons: René Benko, Banks, Balazs Koranyi, John O'Donnell, Barbara Lewis, Alexander Smith Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Signa, Chrysler, Signa Group, Reuters, Raiffeisen Bank, Bank, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Sweden, Austrian, Hamburg, Austria, Bank Austria
The third quarter saw roughly $3 billion in new collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) backed by CRE loans, according to a Friday report by DBRS. This marks a significant turn from the second quarter, which saw less than $1 billion in CRE CLO issuance. Office-backed loans represented almost half of all CRE delinquencies in the third quarter, according to DBRS. An overall 3.27% delinquency rate for CRE CLOs in the third quarter was roughly in line with the second quarter rate, according to DBRS. There were $2.67 billion in delinquent CRE CLO loans as of September, a $20 million increase from the second quarter.
Persons: Marco Bello, DBRS Morningstar, CLOs, Loans, CRE CLOs, CRE, Matt Tracy, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S, DBRS, CRE, Thomson Locations: Miami, Biscayne Bay, Brickell, Downtown, Miami , Florida, U.S, DBRS, delinquencies
And those workouts are becoming mathematically untenable even for private lenders. Borrowing costs for the CRE market have risen more than income, a situation prompted by the steepest jump in interest rates in decades. NO REAL OPTIONRising caution among private lenders will worsen the paucity of liquidity for property owners who have no real exit option. Some private lenders faced the risk of ending up paring their portfolios that were expensive to manage, he added. But the firm's head of commercial real estate economics Thomas LaSalvia said probability of a contagion effect was low.
Persons: Mike Comparato, Jeff Holzmann, Razmig Boladian, Claudia Faust, Alex Horn, Horn, Jay Hiemenz, Thomas LaSalvia, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Anna Driver Organizations: Realty Trust, RREAF Holdings, Rubicon Point Partners, Hawkeye Partners, Thomson Locations: Franklin, Texas
The special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) unveiled plans earlier this year to combine with London Innovation Underwriters and raise additional funds to deploy in the Lloyd's of London insurance market. The deal by Financials Acquisition Corp differs from a typical SPAC merger because the company has set up London Innovation Underwriters itself. It is not the first time that public market investors in London have backed a new insurance venture. In 2020, Conduit Holdings (CRE.L) listed on the London Stock Exchange, subsequently starting reinsurance activities. UBS and HSBC are joint global coordinators to the Financials Acquisition deal.
Persons: Britain's King Charles, Sarah Meyssonnier, William Allen, Lloyd's, Beazley, Carolyn Cohn, Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro, Anousha Organizations: City of, REUTERS, Financials, London Innovation Underwriters, Lloyds, Innovation Underwriters, Conduit Holdings, London Stock Exchange, UBS, HSBC, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, London, Lancashire, Lloyd's
The Cheesecake Factory is more than a staple of US shopping malls – it's a sign of financial health. Malls without a Cheesecake Factory were much more likely to be behind on their loans, Moody's found. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Cheesecake Factory first opened in Beverly Hills, California, in 1978 and has since grown to more than 200 restaurants across North America. The chain is typically located in or near shopping malls — a commercial real estate segment that has seen a rough few years with changing shopping patterns. To see how that relationship plays out in real life, I headed off for lunch at my local Cheesecake Factory at the West Towne Mall in Madison, Wisconsin.
Persons: Moody's, , Matt Reidy, Reidy Organizations: Service, Sears, Nordstroms, Apple, Factory, West Locations: Beverly Hills , California, North America, West Towne, Madison , Wisconsin
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