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☆ A 'litmus test' for a looming recession could come next quarter, says an economist who's been predicting a downturn for 18 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He told CNBC in an interview the fourth quarter of this year would be the "litmus test" for his call. He added a recession typically starts two years after a rate hike cycle begins. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementVeteran economist David Rosenberg has been calling a recession for the last 18 months, and he isn't letting the current resilience in the US economy change his mind. "It hasn't materialized, dot dot dot, yet," Rosenberg told CNBC on Wednesday, in response to his bearish call.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg, — Squawk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Rosenberg Research, US Federal Reserve, Energy, West Texas, Brent Locations: Toronto, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Oil prices rise as Russia fuel export ban stokes supply concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Robert Harvey | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban counteracted demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates. Both benchmarks were relatively flat on the week, having gained more than 10% in the previous three weeks amid concerns about tight global supply. Russian wholesale gasoline prices were down nearly 10% and diesel down 7.5% on Friday on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. But macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on oil demand sentiment. "It is signals on the demand side that are mainly likely to affect oil prices in the short term," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Brent, WTI, Transneft, Robert Harvey, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Jan Harvey, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, West Texas, RBC, St . Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, U.S . Federal Reserve, IIR Energy, Thomson Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Russia, St, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Dollar hovers below 3-month high to euro as ECB decision looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen pulled away from near a 10-month trough to the dollar as a decline in long-term Treasury yields removed some support for the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar index - measuring the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro and yen - edged 0.1% lower to 104.63 in the Asian morning. The euro added 0.1% to $1.07415, continuing its grind higher from last week's low of $1.0686. The dollar slipped 0.2% to 147.125 yen , falling back from near last week's peak of 147.875. At the same time, a hike by the ECB "could potentially catalyse a shift in momentum, relegating the dollar to a secondary position as the euro gains traction," he added.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, James Kniveton, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Treasury, Labor Department, Traders, ECB, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Melbourne

Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $92.24 a barrel at 0300 GMT. Elsewhere, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday retained its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024. "The oil market looks decidedly tight over the next two to three quarters as supply constraints persist amid robust demand," said analysts at ANZ Research. U.S. crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels last week, confounding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 million-barrel drop. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Persons: Priyanka Sachdeva, Phillip Nova, refiners, buoying, Arathy Somasekhar, Leslie Adler Organizations: Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Brent, . West Texas, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, Reserve, Thomson Locations: Idemitsu, Ichihara, Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Houston, Singapore

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday stuck to its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024. Both benchmarks climbed to 10-month highs on Wednesday before data showed a surprise build in U.S. crude and fuel inventories that worried markets about demand. U.S. crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels last week, confounding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 million-barrel drop. Fuel inventories also rose more than expected as refiners stepped up activity. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Persons: refiners, buoying, Arathy Somasekhar, Leslie Adler Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, International Energy Agency, of, Petroleum, Reserve, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, Houston

☆ Dollar hovers above 3-month low to euro as ECB decision looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen pulled away from near a 10-month trough to the dollar as a decline in long-term Treasury yields removed some support for the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar index — measuring the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro and yen — edged 0.1% lower to 104.63 in the Asian morning. The euro added 0.1% to $1.07415, continuing its grind higher from last week's low of $1.0686. The dollar slipped 0.2% to 147.125 yen , falling back from near last week's peak of 147.875. At the same time, a hike by the ECB "could potentially catalyze a shift in momentum, relegating the dollar to a secondary position as the euro gains traction," he added.

Persons: James Kniveton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Labor Department, Traders, ECB, Reuters Locations: U.S, Melbourne

☆ Japan finance minister offers no clues on intervention as yen weakens
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022. Some market players were surprised by the lack of determination to keep the yen from falling beyond 145 yen to the dollar. Traders are watching for any signs of intervention by Japanese officials to shore up the ailing currency. However, Japanese officials have rarely escalated verbal warnings since last month against speculators trying to sell off the yen. The weak yen has driven up import bills for fuel and foods, depriving households of purchasing power and prompting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to scramble for measures to subsidise gasoline retail prices and to mitigate rises in utility bills.

Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Japan's, Daisaku Ueno, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japanese Finance, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, Authorities, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan

☆ 'Shark Tank' investor Kevin O'Leary says it's weird there's no recession yet — and predicts mortgage rates will exceed 8%
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Kevin O'Leary finds it surprising the US economy has avoided a recession so far. The "Shark Tank" investor expects interest and mortgage rates to rise further. The US economy has managed to escape a recession so far — but mortgage rates are headed higher in the months ahead, he said. "We have this weird situation in America, we're at full employment," the "Shark Tank" investor told Fox News. Wonderful" — said interest rates were on track to hit 6% at least, pushing mortgage rates from about 7% today to above 8%.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, Jerome Powell, Jim Chanos, O'Leary, — Organizations: Service, we're, Fox News, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, Texas, Florida

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. Data for June additions was revised lower to 185,000 jobs, from 209,000 reported previously. Reuters GraphicsAverage hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, unchanged from the previous month, exceeding expectations, taking the year-on-year increase in wages to 4.4%. The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note dipped after the jobs data, partly boosting some megacap stocks. Buoying the S&P 500 index, Amazon.com shares (AMZN.O) rose after the company issued an upbeat third-quarter outlook.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Greg Bassuk, jitters, Said, Echo Wang, Shubham Batra, Bansari, Savio D'Souza, Shounak Dasgupta, Shinjini Ganguli, Louise Heavens, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Nasdaq, Treasury, AXS Investments, Labor Department, Reuters, Microsoft, Dow Jones, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Ukraine, China, New York, Bengaluru

Sterling traded higher after recovering knee-jerk losses following the Bank of England's decision to downshift to a quarter point rate hike on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index , which gauges the currency against a basket of six counterparts, edged 0.06% lower to 102.39 in Asia. On Thursday, it had pushed to the highest since July 7 at 102.84 at one point, but lost steam later in the day with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report looming on Friday. The dollar slipped slightly to 142.40 yen , as long-term Treasury yields - which the currency pair tends to track closely - retreated from Thursday's nearly nine-month high at 4.198% in Tokyo trading. At the same time, "unless or until what's been happening with Treasury yields reverses, there's no meaningful prospect of dollar-yen coming down here, unless we see a very dramatic deterioration in risk sentiment," he added.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kristina Clifton, BoE, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, of, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Thursday's, Tokyo, U.S

☆ Inflation takes center stage in the week ahead as Wall Street looks for more clues on Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

New inflation data set for release in the week ahead could help Wall Street regain its footing. However, he does not expect that the inflation data releasing next week will be very threatening, even if they show a slight rise from the prior reading. A smattering of results will roll out in the week ahead including from major firms like the Walt Disney Company, which reports Wednesday. Other economic data Investors will digest other major economic data in the week ahead. Hourly earnings (July) Earnings: RL Friday, Aug. 11 8:30 a.m. PPI (July) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (August)

Persons: it's, Jack Ablin, Ablin, McCormick, Archer, CFRA'S Sam Stovall, FactSet, Stovall, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk, Tyson, Eli Lilly, Fox Organizations: Federal, PPI, Cresset, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Daniels, Midland, Chevron, Investments, Walt Disney Company, Wynn Resorts, Dow, Consumer Credit, Tyson Foods, Paramount, Parcel Service, CPI Locations: U.S, Michigan

European stocks (.STOXX) fell 0.2%, stepping back from a 2% gain in July, its second month of gains. UK stocks (.FTSE) edged up 0.1%, however, with HSBC (HSBA.L) climbing 2.6% after announcing a $2 billion share buyback and raising its key profitability target. Oil prices traded near a three-month high hit on Monday amid signs of tightening global supply. Also buoying prices were producers cutting output and demand in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer, remaining resilient. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers - rose as high as 102.07 for the first time since July 10.

Persons: Sandrine Perret, Hong, HSI, Alec Jin, Tom Wilson, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Bernadette Baum Organizations: HSBC, LONDON, . Federal, Fed, Brent, Energy, BP, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Unigestion, United States, London, Asia, Tokyo

☆ Wall St sees bargains and lure of Europe buoying cruise, hotel earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Doyinsola Oladipo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Passenger ticket and onboard spending revenue is expected to increase 66% and 36%, respectively. Cabin bookings in the second quarter were up 58% compared to this time last year. For Carnival, booking volumes in the second quarter were 17% higher than in 2019, Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein told investors in June. Meanwhile, investors will be watching if record nightly rates for on-shore accommodations can offset revenue in the second quarter. Hotel and short-term rental rates were about 18% and 35% more expensive in the second quarter than in 2019, according to analytics firms CoStar and AirDNA.

Persons: Brandt Montour, McKinsey, Sylvia Jablonski, Patrick Scholes, Josh Weinstein, AirDNA, Hilton, Doyinsola Oladipo, Granth, Susan Heavey Organizations: YORK, Investors, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Barclays, Royal, Carnival Corp, Cruise Line Holdings, Airlines, Cruises, Cruise, Truist Securities, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, AirDNA . U.S, Asia, New York, Bangalore

Voters appear to be persuadable on some of those issues, the poll showed, while they are finding fault with Republicans for their efforts to restrict abortion. Both he and Trump supported the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last year to end the nationwide right to abortion. Republicans were solidly against teaching gender issues in public schools, with 76% opposed, 20% in favor and the rest unsure. Independents were less decided, with 49% against teaching gender issues, 27% in support and 24% unsure. Seventy percent described teaching of gender issues in schools that way and 61% saw importance in the issue of transgender athletes in children's sports.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Biden, Jacob Rubashkin, DeSantis, Trump, Rubashkin, Jason Lange, James Oliphant, Scott Malone, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Reuters, Republicans, Biden, Florida, Elections, Trump, Democratic National Committee, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington, Florida, U.S .

Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, has deep political connections, and his prognostications on the economy are scrutinized in some circles as closely as a central banker’s musings. The U.S. economy “continues to perform better than many had expected,” said Charles W. Scharf, the bank’s chief executive. Unlike the other banks, Citigroup reported a fall in second-quarter profit, although the decline was not as severe as analysts had predicted. The U.S. government debt-limit standoff in April and May was also reflected in the banks’ results, with Citi citing anxiety during the negotiations as pushing investment-banking clients to the “sidelines” during the second quarter. What’s NextIn the next week or so, a slew of other banks will report quarterly earnings.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, didn’t, ”, Wells, “, Charles W, Scharf, Jane Fraser, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Citigroup, Citi, Western Alliance and Comerica Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Republic

☆ JPMorgan’s Profit Jumps, but Interest Rates Remain a Threat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Rob Copeland | More About Rob Copeland | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Why It MattersGiven its size, JPMorgan is a proxy for the banking industry at large. Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, has deep political connections and his prognostications on the economy are scrutinized in some circles as closely as a central banker’s musings. On Friday, in a statement, Mr. Dimon said the U.S. economy was “resilient,” echoing language he has used repeatedly this year, but listed a litany of risks, including that consumers are burning through their cash buffers and that inflation remains high. BackgroundJPMorgan and Mr. Dimon have been all over the news this year, thanks to their prominent role as an attempted stabilizing force during the spring’s banking crisis that felled three smaller lenders. What’s NextThe next week or so will see a slew of other banks report their quarterly earnings.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Western Alliance and Comerica Locations: U.S, Republic

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had accused Ripple Labs and its current and former chief executives of selling unregistered securities when conducting a $1.3 billion offering for XRP, which was created in 2012. Shares in Coinbase, which is also embroiled in litigation with the SEC over its trading of crypto tokens, surged 24.5% on Thursday following the decision, finishing at $107. Coinbase said it would allow trading of the XRP token again on its platform in line with the court ruling. Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, was last up 4.1% at 31,584 while Ethereum , the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 6.43% to $1,993.3. Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; editing by Michelle Price and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Coinbase, We've, Analisa, Torres, Paul Grewal, Chibuike Oguh, Michelle Price, Deepa Babington Organizations: YORK, Coinbase Global Inc, Ripple Labs, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Labs, Inc, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc, Microstrategy Inc, Mining Corp, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Coinbase, New York

July 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Purchasing managers index (PMI) reports on Monday from across the Asia-Pacific region, including China, India, South Korea and Australia, will give the first glimpse into private sector services and factory activity in June. Monday's Asian economic calendar is dominated by a raft of manufacturing PMIs including China's, Indonesian inflation, Japan's 'tankan' business sentiment survey for the second quarter, and Australian housing. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 50.2 from 50.9, signaling a slowdown in factory sector growth almost the point of stagnation. The official PMI, expected to show a third month of contraction, will be released on Friday.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, U.S, PMI, Equity, Indonesia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Pacific, China, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia

June 27 (Reuters) - Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.O) slashed its profit forecast for the year as persistently high inflation hits sales of consumer healthcare goods and demand for COVID shots and tests wanes, sending its shares plunging 8% on Tuesday. "Our revised guidance takes an appropriately cautious forward view in light of consumer spending uncertainty," CEO Rosalind Brewer said in a statement. Walgreens' shares were trading at $29.21, on track to open at their lowest levels since 2012, if losses held. In the third quarter of the fiscal year, Walgreens reported a 0.2% fall in same-store sales at its retail division, compared with estimates of a 2.1% rise, according to brokerage TD Cowen. Walgreens said its forecast cut reflected "challenging consumer and macroeconomic conditions, and lower COVID-19 vaccine and testing volumes".

Persons: Rosalind Brewer, TD, Walgreens, Manas Mishra, Mariam Sunny, Pooja Desai Organizations: Walgreens Boots Alliance, CVS Health, Walgreens, TD Cowen, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

With some 1.6 million of those due to re-fix mostly 2-5 year fixed rate deals over the next 18 months - half of those by the end of this year - this super-hike will burn. Two-year fixed mortgage rates have doubled to 6% in just 10 months and were less than 1% two years ago. Fixed-rate deals were only introduced at all in 1989 and the vast majority were floating rates until just eight years ago. As Leaviss points out, five-year inflation expectations in the bond market are still stubbornly one percentage point above the 2% goal. In the end, the BoE has few good choices - but the days of fine tuning the economy with nudges and tweaks may be over.

Persons: BoE, that's, Moyeen, Jim Leaviss, Vivek Paul, Paul, Leaviss, Mike Dolan, Naomi Rovnick, Conor Humphries Organizations: Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Barclays, Bank, Investment, BlackRock Investment Institute, OECD, Twitter, Thomson Locations: United States, Germany

As billions of dollars have flooded into Big Tech over the last six weeks, bitcoin trading volumes and demand have slumped. Since April 25, the NYSE FANG+TM index of big tech and growth stocks has surged 24%, nearly three times the broader Nasdaq. The AI boom has gathered momentum despite the rise in bond yields and discount rates. This has highlighted bitcoin's underperformance and strongly suggests that outside the rarified world of Big Tech, investors are much more discerning. Indeed, just seven U.S. tech stocks have driven all of the positive S&P 500 returns so far this year, according to analysts at Barclays.

Persons: Crypto, Matt Weller, Weller, bitcoin, Vanda, Vanda's Marco Iachini, cryptocurrencies, Jamie McGeever, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nasdaq, NYSE, Reuters, Big Tech, Microsoft, Barclays, Vanda Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

☆ Stephen Schwarzman says Blackstone has dumped office investments. Another corner of the firm kept lending billions.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Blackstone Mortgage Trust's $8.2 billion portfolio of office loans leaves it exposed to the sector. The Blackstone-managed firm issued about $3.3 billion of US office loans since the pandemic began. Even as clouds began to gather, Blackstone Mortgage Trust continued to lend to the office sector. In addition to managing the mortgage trust, Blackstone is among its largest shareholders. A Washington office complex shows how far values have fallenThere are ongoing issues, however, in Blackstone Mortgage Trust's portfolio.

May 28 (Reuters) - Global investors are gaming out how a tentative deal to raise the United States debt ceiling could ripple through markets, as lawmakers strive to pass the agreement through Congress before a June 5 deadline. U.S. five-year credit default swaps narrowed, meaning that the cost of insuring against exposure to a U.S. debt default fell. “The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday.

☆ Japan's Nikkei hits 1990 high on weak yen, US optimism; SoftBank surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, May 29 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Monday to its highest level since July 1990, buoyed by optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal and a weaker yen. SoftBank Group jumped more than 8% as shares of Japanese chip-related companies continued to outperform amid the AI euphoria that also propelled Wall Street peers. "The trigger for everything was Nvidia," said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. The broader Topix (.TOPX) rose as much as 1.36% to 2,175.13 in early trading but failed to get close to last week's 33-year high at 2,188.66. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sohini GoswamiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

“The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday. S&P Global Ratings stripped the United States of its coveted top rating over a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, a few days after a last-minute agreement the agency at the time said did not stabilize "medium-term debt dynamics." S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody's did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

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