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Usually when a meeting of the Federal Reserve is on the week’s calendar, economists and market strategists focus on the decision to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has all but said policymakers would be on hold for this meeting as they digest recent economic data and consider the effects that 11 interest rate hikes have had on the economy. But the Fed will issue a new set of economic forecasts and projections about where interest rates will be over the remaining months of 2023 and in 2024, along with the unemployment rate. However, the LEI has been flashing a recession signal now for many months. “While the LEI continues to signal recession, incoming data show a resilient economy,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment unit.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Steve Wyett, Wyett, LEI, , Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: Federal, BOK Financial, Wells, Congress Locations: U.S
NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. In 2022, the Fed handed back $76 billion, after returning $109 billion in 2021.
Persons: William English, Derek Tang, Meyer, James Bullard, Louis Fed, that's, What's, John Williams, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Yale University, Fed, Treasury, . Bank, Securities, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S
"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.
Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York
For months now, inflation has been steadily trending down to a 3% level after hitting 9% last summer. That will likely bring the annual rate to 3.6%. The Fed actually pays attention to a less well-known inflation metric and tends to focus on core inflation minus housing and those numbers are improving. We look for the monthly pace of core inflation to rebound to 0.2%-0.3% in Q4 and keep the annual rate closer to 4% than 3% through year end. The annual rate of headline CPI is also likely to remain stuck just above 3% through the end of 2023.
Persons: , Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, Janet Yellen Organizations: CPI, White, Fed, PPI Locations: India, U.S
The likelihood that inflation numbers are going to remain stubbornly high for a while could mean more interest rate increases, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday. In a CNBC interview, the the current dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University raised the prospect of more policy tightening as core inflation is stuck around 4%. "That's raising the risk that the Fed will have to follow through on its promise rate increase sometime in the next couple of meetings, and there's some risk that they'd have to go a little bit higher even from there," Bullard told CNBC's Steve Liesman. Inflation numbers "have got to come down into the 3% range, and eventually the 2% range, and if that is not happening and they hang up too high, the Fed may have to do more," he said.
Persons: James Bullard, Mitchell, Daniels, Bullard, CNBC's Steve Liesman, — Jeff Cox Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, CNBC, School of Business, Purdue University Locations: St
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeptember's SEP will have to be adjusted on GDP as the economy persists, says former Fed presidentFormer St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the issue of the Federal Reserve's forecast for September, whether the outlook for the federal funds rate needs to go up to account for economic activity and more.
Persons: Louis, James Bullard Organizations: St, Louis Fed
Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their words
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter. Reporting by Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jeff Schmid, Louis, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Federal, Federal Open, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed, Louis Fed, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St
Fed doves, Fed hawks: a look at how U.S. central bankers fly
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter. Reporting Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jeff Schmid, Louis, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Open, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed, Louis Fed, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles
Fed Chair Powell has said the Fed still has more work to do, and he himself hasn’t ruled out back-to-back rate hikes. But he also suggested that the Fed prefers to get rate hikes over with as soon as possible. The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to raise its key federal funds rate later this month after it paused in June after 10 straight rate hikes. If core inflation continues to moderate only slightly, Fed officials might just want to get the second rate hike over with. The FOMC next meets on July 25-26, with an announcement on rate hikes due at 2 p.m.
Persons: Louis, James Bullard, Adriana Kugler, Powell, hasn’t, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, , weren’t, Kugler, That’s Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Louis Fed, Market Committee, , New York University Locations: Washington, April’s
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Steps Down
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
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Persons: Dow Jones, bullard Locations: louis
New York CNN —Despite promising signs that inflation is abating, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said the fight against price increases isn’t over. But she cautioned, “It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation.”The latest Consumer Price Index report published on Wednesday showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double its 2% target in May. Daly acknowledged there’s a risk the Fed will raise rates higher than what’s ultimately needed to get inflation down to 2%. Daly, who will be voting on interest rates at the Fed’s meetings next year, said she wouldn’t necessarily consider cutting rates once inflation hits 2%.
Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, “ It’s, Daly, there’s, “ can’t, , Daly’s, James Bullard Organizations: New, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, San, St
He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.
Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington
New York CNN —St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard announced Thursday he is stepping down from his position in mid-August. “It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years,” Bullard said in a statement released Thursday afternoon. With the exception of the president of New York Fed, four regional bank presidents from the remaining 11 branches serve one-year terms on the Federal Open Market Committee on a rotating basis. Kathleen O’Neill Paese, the St. Louis Fed’s first vice president and chief operating officer, was confirmed Thursday by the bank’s board and assumed Bullard’s duties “immediately” in the interim, according to the statement. The St. Louis Fed said it is hiring “a national executive search firm” to help identify Bullard’s permanent successor.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis Fed, ” Bullard, Bullard, Purdue University’s Mitchell E, Daniels, Jr, Jerome Powell, won’t, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Louis Fed’s, , Bullard’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Louis Federal Reserve, Purdue, School of Business, Fed, New York Fed, Federal, Seven, Governor Locations: New York, St
James Bullard, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, delivers a speech in London, U.K., on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019. The St. Louis Federal Reserve announced Thursday that Jim Bullard will step down from his post as president, effective Aug. 14. "It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years," Bullard said in a statement. "I am also grateful to have worked alongside such dedicated and inspiring colleagues across the Federal Reserve System." The St. Louis Fed said it will hire a "national executive search firm" to assist in seeking Bullard's successor.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis, Jim Bullard, Purdue University's Mitchell E, Daniels, Jr, Bullard, Louis Fed Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Federal Reserve, Purdue, School of Business, Federal Reserve's, Market, Federal Reserve Locations: London, The St
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSt. Louis Fed President Bullard announces plans to step down in AugustCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Power Lunch' to report on St. Louis Fed President James Bullard announcing his plan to step down from the Fed in August.
Persons: Louis, Bullard, Steve Liesman, James Bullard Organizations: St, Louis Fed, Fed
Morning Bid: World markets calm after Russia drama
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled. For Russian markets themselves, the rouble slipped to 15-month lows - but it too had been falling last week as oil prices ebbed. Largely now isolated from western investment, Russian stocks fell about 1%. U.S. Treasury yields slipped lower, perhaps with a smidgen of a safety bid from the weekend events helping too. Turkey's lira slid again to record lows after the central bank took steps to simplify rules governing lenders' holdings and foreign deposits after a sharp but underwhelming interest rate rise last week.
Persons: Mike Dolan, uneasily, Vladimir Putin, Leonardo, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wall, Saab, Rheinmetall, Brent, . U.S, Treasury, Bank for International Settlements, HSBC, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Central Banking, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Moscow, Shanghai, Europe, United States, ., Canary Wharf, London, Sintra, Portugal
Morning Bid: Business brakes in June swoon, dollar jumps
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanJust as world stock prices raced ahead this month, broader business activity appeared to be stalling again. Equivalent Japanese and British surveys also showed sub-forecast growth and markets nervously await the U.S. version later on Friday. The dollar was the big market mover - surging into the weekend against Asia and European currencies. Inflation is falling faster, real wage growth is back positive, the jobs market is loosening slightly and housing is rebounding somewhat. So even as stock prices have come off the year's highs, the VIX (.VIX) implied volatility gauge continues to fall away - closing below 13 on Thursday for the first time since January 2020.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Wall, Powell's, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Jane Merriman Organizations: Asia, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Brent, Japan's, Swiss, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Asia, United States
Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell reiterated his view that more rate hikes are likely in the months ahead. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he remains unconvinced that inflation is on a steady path downward, but would not prejudge what the Fed should do at its July 25-26 meeting. Investors will also monitor comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed's President Loretta Mester. ET, Dow e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 22 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 101.75 points, or 0.67%. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Shreyashi Sanyal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Matt Britzman, Hargreaves Lansdown, Tom Barkin, Louis, James Bullard, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Shubham Batra, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shashwat Chauhan, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Banking, Richmond Fed, Deutsche Bank, Louis Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland, Dow e, 3M, Carmax Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Still seeking decisive stimulus in China
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Sonali DesaiDisappointment has been the prevailing sentiment so far this week as investors grow impatient with the wait for more decisive Chinese stimulus measures. China delivered the expected 10 basis-point reduction to its lending benchmarks, but disappointed those looking for a bigger cut to the mortgage-linked five-year loan prime rate. Chinese property stocks took a hit and the yuan came under further pressure, reversing much of its bounce against the U.S. dollar late last week when stimulus expectations were driving price action. Still, that helped Australian shares build on recent gains to reach a seven-week high, bucking declines across Asian bourses where rising Treasury yields and souring anticipation of Chinese stimulus efforts spurred broad declines. The wary investor mood is likely to spill into Europe, where the data calendar is confined to German producer prices for May.
Persons: Sonali Desai, Antony Blinken's, Luis de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Olli Rehn, Elizabeth McCaul, Luis de Guindos, St Louis, James Bullard, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Sonali, U.S ., Reuters, Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of Spain, Bank of Finland, St, Barcelona School of, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Europe, Luis de Guindos, Hungary
Yield and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET, the 10-year Treasury was trading more than one basis point higher at 3.7808%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by less than one basis point to 4.7189%. Investors awaited a slew of Fed speaker comments slated for this week which could provide fresh details about the outlook for interest rates. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard and New York President John Williams are expected to speak on Tuesday, followed by other policymakers throughout the week.
Persons: Monday's, Louis, Jim Bullard, John Williams, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, New York Locations: St, U.S
Morning Bid: US housing rebound, China prime cuts
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The main macroeconomic news overnight was a rather underwhelming Chinese rate cut that seemed to disappoint the local stock and currency markets, both of which fell. The People's Bank of China cut two benchmark lending rates - its one-year and five-year loan prime rates - by 10 basis points each. With Goldman Sachs on Monday the latest to cut China growth forecasts for this year and next, nerves about the economy's trajectory are rising again. The big U.S. data input this week is from the housing sector, where signs of some recovery are reinforcing 'soft landing' hopes for the wider economy. On Monday, the NAHB's house market sentiment index rose in June to its highest in almost a year and far above forecasts.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Joe Biden, what's, BOE, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, John Williams, St Louis, James Bullard, Narendra Modi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nasdaq, People's Bank of China, Washington, China's, of, Global, Bank of, Federal Reserve, FedEx, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, New York Fed, St, St Louis Fed, Indian, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Xi, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Bank, Bank of England, United
Also on tap are several speaking engagements for Federal Reserve members, including Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday in his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. ET: St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard speaks 8:30 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 12:25 am. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 10:00 a.m. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell departs after speaking during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2023.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Louis, Jim Bullard, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Tom Barkin, Friday's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mandel Ngan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Darden, FedEx, Louis Fed, Housing, NY Fed, Federal, Chicago Fed, Patterson Companies, Winnebago Industries, Algoma Steel, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, Commercial Metals, U.S, Treasury, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: United States, Olive, Washington ,
Morning Bid: The UK consumer is feeling the heat
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanIt's not just the heatwave. UK consumers are paying through their noses for fish and chips too, and Friday brings the next quarterly survey of their views on inflation and rates. As Britain contends with one of the highest inflation rates among major advanced economies, the BOE seems set to hike rates a lot more. The stock has soared 17% this year, but pared some gains as grocers across Europe cap some prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks in Oslo, NorwayEarnings/updates: Tesco (TSCO.L)Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan It's, BOE, Bullard, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Tesco, Asda, June University of Michigan, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Vidya, gilts, Europe, Brussels, Italy, Oslo, Norway
Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.
Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, , Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, , Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway,
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