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When 2023 began, a single bitcoin could be had for less than $17,000 after losing more than 75% of its value. Now, bitcoin is getting another boost on the prospects of creating a much larger pool of investors. IShares Bitcoin Trust appeared to be temporarily removed Tuesday, but was back online as of Wednesday. Still, the most recent surge bitcoin goes beyond single developments or participants, Kaiko research analyst Riyad Carey notes — crediting “more of a broad market rally" around spot bitcoin ETF prospects. Despite the recent excitement around bitcoin, crypto is still a risky bet.
Persons: Bitcoin, hasn't, Edward Moya, IShares Bitcoin, iShares, Moya, Riyad Carey, , , “ We’re, it’s, , it's, ” Moya, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Industry, Columbia, Securities and Exchange Commission, Grayscale's, SEC, Depository Trust, Clearing Corporation, Associated Press Locations: Silicon, bitcoin, cryptocurrencies
Things seem to have taken a turn lower in the crypto market, but bitcoin offers a glimmer of hope and Wolfe Research is defending its long view of the asset. The crypto market continues to struggle from low volume and liquidity that have dragged on for most of the year. "That changed this week with Monday seeing over $105 million in crypto liquidations, and the equal weight crypto index we track breaking down in turn," Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. On top of that, Treasury yields remain high amid stubbornly high inflation and uncertainty around the Israel-Hamas war. Crypto stocks are also trading down, but may be finding support now, according to Wolfe.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, bitcoin, it's, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC, ETF Locations: bitcoin, Israel
Bitcoin's price this week is near a familiar and key support level, but its latest stop there is a little more worrying than previous ones this year, according to Wolfe Research. "With support in this area on dual fronts, it makes sense that price would hold and consolidate in this region. "Longer term momentum is starting to break in bitcoin," he added. Short term price action is never our worry, it's when longer term trends start to break, that we want to take notice and pivot accordingly." "As the retail investor comes under pressure and liquidity is drained, our concerns will only grow for crypto prices," Ginsberg added.
Persons: bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin's, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research Locations: bitcoin
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.72% as the country's service sector logged its slowest expansion in eight months, according to a Caixin survey. Overinvestment in ChinaChina is "overinvested," said Jitania Kandhari, a managing director and deputy chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley. By contrast, India is underinvested, Kandhari said, giving its economy and markets investment opportunities.
Persons: Narendra Modi, China —, Jitania Kandhari, Morgan Stanley, Kandhari, Weizhen Tan Organizations: CNBC, Labor, Shanghai, Indian, BMW, Ford, Mercedes Locations: Miami Beach , Florida, U.S, Asia, Pacific, India, Russia, China, China China, Munich, Germany
FILE PHOTO: Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are placed on a PC motherboard, in this illustration taken June 16, 2023. A spot bitcoin ETF would give investors exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization without having to own it. The SEC has denied all spot bitcoin ETF applications, saying applicants have not shown they can protect investors from market manipulation. Grayscale argued the same setup should be satisfactory for its spot ETF, since both products rely on bitcoin’s underlying price. Other firms have spot bitcoin ETF applications with the SEC, including asset management giant BlackRock, Fidelity and WisdomTree.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Grayscale’s, It’s, , Christopher LaVigne, Withers, , Michael Sonnenshein, Bitcoin, Sui Chung, Joseph Toner, Seth Hertlein, Ryan Louvar, Paul Grewal, ” Coinbase, Withers ’ LaVigne Organizations: WASHINGTON, REUTERS, District of Columbia, Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, CNBC, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Fidelity, Coinbase, BlackRock, Supreme Locations: Washington, New York, WilmerHale, BlackRock
It’s at 12 percent this year, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, and Bitcoin’s price has risen more than 75 percent from its 2022 low. Crypto conviction — or just curiosity — is not something that merits condescension from the olds and scolds of personal finance. It just requires you to ask a few questions about who you are and why you find crypto alluring. It is true that younger adults are more open to this way of putting money to work. If you’re under 40, you’re more likely to own crypto than people over 60, according to the N.B.E.R.
Persons: It’s, Sam Bankman, you’re, You’re Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: United States
Coinbase is a crypto conundrum, squared
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Shares in Coinbase got a major boost after money management behemoth BlackRock (BLK.N) applied to launch a bitcoin-backed exchange-traded fund this month with Coinbase as its custodian. Coinbase shares are up nearly 54% in July, handily beating the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC), which rose 4%. Price targets range widely: analysts polled by Refinitiv think Coinbase is worth anywhere from $8 billion to nearly $50 billion. Coinbase investors would therefore be unwise to count on a judge delivering Coinbase a win. Given bitcoin’s current $584 billion market capitalization, that suggests $74 billion of ETFs would not be much of a stretch.
Persons: Brian Armstrong, Coinbase, behemoth BlackRock, , Gary Gensler, there’s, Goldman Sachs, Cowen, Refinitiv, Armstrong, Sam Bankman, Larry Fink, Charles Schwab, doubters, Ripple, John Foley, Streisand Neto Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Securities and Exchange, Nasdaq, SEC, Citigroup, Commodity Futures, BlackRock, Bank, New York Mellon, Interactive, Securities and Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, U.S
He told investors to "utilize pending near-term weakness to add exposure near important technical support at their 50-day moving averages." Investors should expect the first level of resistance at about $30,493 on the upside and the next at $31,476, he said. Should the bitcoin price turn lower, first support would be at $28,717, about the level of its 50-day moving average. "This confirms the long-term trend is now up, a strong technical positive, and is consistent with a four-year cycle taking hold in cryptocurrencies," Mirza wrote. Lately, investors have been drawing similarities between the cryptocurrency's recent behavior and its moves in the lead up to the last halving.
Persons: Canaccord, Bitcoin, Javed Mirza, Canaccord Genuity, Mirza, bitcoin, CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: cryptocurrencies
Dow Futures Hover; Nvidia Falls: Live Updates
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
U.S. stock futures pointed to declines for tech shares following the opening bell after The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. was considering new restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Jerome Powell is set to speak at a European Central Bank forum alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Gov. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.1%, under pressure technology stocks. Bond yields in Italy and Australia also weakened after inflation data in both countries came in weaker than expected. Bitcoin’s rally appeared to be running out of steam, with the cryptocurrency declining 1% to $30,352.60 from its 5 p.m.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Bond Organizations: Street Journal, Nvidia, Devices, Intel, European Central Bank, Bank of England Gov, Bank of Japan Gov, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Micron Technology Locations: U.S, China, Italy, Australia, Shanghai, Europe
Are investors ignoring the Federal Reserve’s warning?
  + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
CNN —Stocks fell last week as several signs pointed to the Federal Reserve continuing to hike rates this year. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, is derived from S&P 500 index options prices and measures volatility expectations. Meanwhile, the May Producer Price Index showed that inflation at the wholesale level cooled to below its pre-pandemic average. Tuesday: Case-Shiller home price index and new home sales. Friday: May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and University of Michigan June consumer sentiment and inflation expectations final reading.
Persons: CNN — Stocks, Jerome Powell, BoE, Tom Graff, Price, , Graff, it’s, Liz Young, Gina Bolvin, Bitcoin, Charles Schwab Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bolvin Wealth Management, , Valley Bank, Signature Bank, BlackRock, EDX, Fidelity Digital Assets, Citadel, Index, University of Michigan
Joe Delich, a classmate who later worked with Mr. Roche at his law firm, remembers him constantly checking the price of Bitcoin on his laptop during classes. Mr. Roche cashed out before a big price drop, earning about $100,000 in profits. As a third-year student, Mr. Roche collaborated with a professor on a paper discussing Bitcoin’s virtues as the first currency free from government interference. By then, Mr. Roche was a first-year associate at Boies Schiller Flexner, where he was developing a reputation as the kid who understood crypto. But many people considered Dr. Wright a fraud, calling into question the notion that he had mined early blocks of Bitcoin, much less cheated someone out of them.
Persons: Joe Delich, Roche, , Boies Schiller, Ira Kleiman, Craig Wright, Satoshi Nakamoto, Kleiman, Wright, David, David Kleiman Organizations: Purdue University, Northwestern University’s Pritzker School of Law, Mr, Street Locations: Miami
The S&P 500 broke out above a key level. Now what?
  + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —The S&P 500 index on Friday closed at its highest level in almost a year. The S&P 500 ended last week up 1.8% at about 4,282, marking its best weekly gain since late March. Now that the index has managed to breach the top level of resistance, that raises the question: Does this rally have legs? An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is up only about 1.5% for the year. The good news is that the S&P 500 will likely return to trading within the 3,800 - 4,200 range, meaning any downside — at least in the short term — will likely be limited, according to Turnquist.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, , José Torres, Adam Turnquist, “ There’s, , ” Bitcoin, Saqib Iqbal, ” Iqbal, bitcoin, Iqbal, Smucker Compan, Baker Hughes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Interactive, LPL, Treasury Department, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Trading.biz
Stocks were mixed Monday afternoon after the Federal Reserve’s lending officer survey showed credit conditions tightened in the first quarter. The report kicked off a busy week with more corporate earnings and inflation data on tap. Regional bank stocks jumped at the open but lost much of that ground as trading progressed. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking index lost 1.8%. Oil prices rose, pointing to a recovery for Brent crude after finishing Friday with a third straight weekly loss.
Weary Bitcoin Investors Chase Shiny New Object—Gold
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Hardika Singh | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
For three years, Mitch Day rode bitcoin’s wild swings, through the record highs of 2021 to the cold-water plunge of 2022. Mr. Day and a number of his cryptocurrency compatriots have since turned to the asset favored by pharaohs, pirates and Scrooge McDuck, helping drive an outbreak of gold fever.
But about 50 years ago, gold did the same thing, Morgan Stanley said in a recent note. If bitcoin's current moves continue to follow those of gold in the 1970s, the cryptocurrency could be in for some tough times ahead. "Bitcoin, on a logarithmic scale, has so far followed a similar path to the price speculation of gold in the 1970s, which also seemed to follow a four year cycle." Starting in 1971, gold prices quadrupled within four years as the U.S. dollar money supply grew rapidly, the strategist said. At the end of March, that correlation fell to its lowest since 2021 , while bitcoin's correlation with gold has been climbing.
And so, the adoption cycle always accelerates when the price is going up – and we're seeing that – but it really has been a crypto-led rally." Bitcoin halving, a pending credit crunch and greater adoption should drive crypto to new highs within the next two years, he added. The comments from Novogratz come as bitcoin punched above the $30,000 level for the first time since June, while ether advanced toward the $2,000 level. Crypto assets have rallied this year as some investors bet the Federal Reserve will soon pause its hiking cycle. Despite renewed regulatory scrutiny around Coinbase , he expects the company to thrive because it's "doing a lot of smart things."
Bitcoin is still the market’s runaway success story of the year. Bitcoin has gained more than 80 percent in price so far this year, far outperforming many other assets. The latest Bitcoin rally appears to be partly tied to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which has included nine interest rate increases over the past year. The cryptocurrency is up more than 45 percent since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last month. Industry advocates point to the recent rally as a sign that investors are converting some of their cash into digital currencies, though there is little evidence of that happening.
The break became more noticeable in March, as investors rediscovered bitcoin's appeal as alternative banking system as the regional banking crisis unfolded. Bitcoin's correlation with the S & P 500 is now at its lowest since September 2021, after reaching its highest ever in 2022 , according to Coin Metrics. Meanwhile, bitcoin's correlation with gold, a traditionally "risk-off" asset, has risen. This break in correlation is perhaps a sign more investors are waking up to this fact." Bitcoin became more of an institutional asset at the start of 2021 as big investors, short term traders and macro funds jumped into the market.
Bitcoin held on to its new highs this week and saw the biggest exchange inflows of the year, but the rally could be dwindling, investors say. Bitcoin's exchange net inflows were the largest of the year and 8.2x larger than the prior week's, suggesting this month's rally was led by retail investors, Citi analyst Alkesh Shah, noted in a separate report Friday. This past month's banking crisis, however, brought a moment of awareness to bitcoin investors that has partly driven the recent rally. "While bitcoin's rally is somewhat extended, the now 40% bounce off the 200-day moving average highlights strength of trend," he said. What the charts say This week, bitcoin briefly dropped to the $26,000 level, almost returning to the key level of $25,200 chart analysts have been monitoring.
Bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Since his Miami proclamations, bitcoin’s price has fallen by nearly 40%, though in the last few weeks after Silicon Valley Bank’s failure it has had a resurgence. At first glance, his prediction seems wildly optimistic but directionally reasonable – bitcoin has surged by over 35% since SVB’s collapse on March 10. What’s more, bitcoin may never have surpassed $60,000 to reach its highest-ever price level in 2021 had the Fed not kept interest rates consistently low. It’s the prospect of lower rates – not the lack of government stability – that is opening the door to riskier bets like those on bitcoin. Gold is a tangible asset, unlike bitcoin, and that’s precisely what makes it an inflation hedge.
Bitcoin's market dominance has been climbing in March and is now up to levels not seen since June. Investors use it to determine which parts of the crypto market are outperforming or underperforming relative to their peers. When bitcoin dominance climbs, it implies that bitcoin is doing well, but more specifically, it means its outperforming altcoins. Bitcoin dominance has risen steadily since March 8, the day after Silvergate Bank announced its voluntary liquidation. "That's reflecting a view that a lot of macro investors have, that we're either at or very near the bottom of this macro cycle."
Bitcoin Booms in Wake of Bank Crisis
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Vicky Ge Huang | Caitlin Ostroff | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Bitcoin was all but left for dead after the implosion of crypto exchange FTX, but its recent rally is proving naysayers wrong. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has risen 21% so far this month on the back of the banking crisis, bringing bitcoin’s rally to almost 70% so far this year. Bitcoin traded above $28,000 on Sunday for the first time since June.
Crypto prices suffered badly in 2022, but developer activity for the year paints a more optimistic picture for investors. That puts developer growth at 9% for the year, the report showed, even as the price of ether dropped 67%, according to Coin Metrics. Its price collapsed 50% last year, but the strength of its developer community gave investors hope it would pull through. Meanwhile, bitcoin's developer population shrunk 4%, though it's still the fifth largest in the market at 300 full-time builders. Why it matters for investors Developer activity is an indicator of a network's utility and potential for end users.
Markets are pushing higher but don’t get comfortable just yet — if last year taught us anything it’s to expect the unexpected. Russia and UkraineIn late February Russia invaded Ukraine and began a prolonged war that would drive global food and fuel prices sky-high. The CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter is now worth $137 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Musk’s $44 billion purchase of Twitter hasn’t helped Tesla’s stock or Musk’s personal wealth, either. Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, has sold $23 billion worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April.
The European Central Bank gave a strong critique of bitcoin on Wednesday, saying the cryptocurrency is on a "road to irrelevance." "More likely, however, it is an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance — and this was already foreseeable before FTX went bust and sent the bitcoin price to well below USD16,000," they wrote. Bindseil and Schaff said that bitcoin didn't fit the mold of an investment and wasn't suitable as a means of payment, either. "Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."
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