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☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesHigh rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, ” Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, University of Arkansas, Nationwide, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

Retail sales fell 0.1% last month after jumping a strong 0.9% in September, according to a report released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Excluding sales of gas and autos, retail sales ticked up 0.1%. “The October retail sales report was stronger than expectations, but confirmed a slowdown in consumption,” Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients. Restaurants and bars reported a 0.3% sales increase, though that was much lower than September's 1.6% gain. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging.

Persons: “, ” Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Commerce Department, Consumer, Walmart, Target, Federal Reserve, National Retail Federation Locations: U.S, Europe, United States

☆ Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner believes the Fed's appetite for further hikes has waned
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner believes the Fed's appetite for further hikes has wanedEllen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's stance on inflation and the economy.

Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley

☆ The Fed will definitely be done tightening if there's a government shutdown, top Morgan Stanley economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve could be about to call time on its rate-hiking campaign, according to Morgan Stanley's top economist. That's because a government shutdown could rob the central bank of key economic data. "In monetary policy making, uncertainty tends to lead to policy paralysis," she told Bloomberg's "What Goes Up" podcast. "If it's a full government shutdown, then you don't really get any of the government data," Zentner added. Around 40% of traders expect the central bank to hike borrowing costs again before the end of this year, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, ” Ellen Zentner, Ellen Zentner, Bloomberg's, Zentner Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Washington

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

Striking United Auto Workers members Laura Zielinski and Aisha Cochra hold their strike signs outside the Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 19, 2023. The fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. A prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices. The United Auto Workers strike against the 'Detroit Three' automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis entered its fifth day on Tuesday. Annual inflation has plummeted this year and by some measures now has, or is close to having, a "2" handle - the central bank's 2% goal is within sight.

Persons: Laura Zielinski, Aisha Cochra, Rebecca Cook, Morgan Stanley, Michael Feroli, JP Morgan, Cox, Stellantis, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: United Auto Workers, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, General Motors, Ford, Cox Automotive, UAW, UBS, University, Thomson Locations: Toledo , Ohio, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Detroit

☆ New economic rules shatter US bonds’ crystal ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Yield curve “inversions” belong to the latter group. At first sight, they are right: Yield curve inversions have been a consistent predictor of future downturns. Yield curve inversions take place when the yield on short-dated government debt climbs higher than that on longer-term bonds. Lower long-dated bond yields are seen as a sign that investors predict lower rates due to an economic downturn. As such, yield curve inversions have become a popular forward indicator of economic recessions.

Persons: Treasuries, There’s, Eugene F, Fama, Kenneth R, joblessness, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Morgan Stanley U.S, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Covid

☆ Even if the Fed holds rates steady in September, policy will stay restrictive, says Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEven if the Fed holds rates steady in September, policy will stay restrictive, says Morgan StanleyEllen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, discusses her expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.

Persons: Morgan Stanley Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, Chief U.S, Federal

☆ Hollywood strike, Yellow bankruptcy likely restrained US job growth in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Still, employment growth would be more than the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. "This (job growth) would be one more piece of evidence that would be consistent with that, but that also depends a lot on the upcoming inflation data."

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, it's, Brian Bethune, Nonfarm, payrolls, Conrad DeQuadros, Dean Maki, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Boston College, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Yellow Corp, Brean, Point72, Management, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Stamford , Connecticut

☆ How more than a trillion dollars in U.S. government infrastructure spending can boost these 3 industrial stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The U.S. government is deploying trillions of dollars of stimulus money into infrastructure investments, boosting the prospects for a number of industrials in the Club portfolio. Club names Honeywell (HON) and Emerson Electric (EMR) might also grab some of the IRA's funding for green energy. Gains were linked to a boost in demand for construction equipment because of the "once in a generation" Infrastructure bill. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. The White House's infrastructure plan estimates to set aside approximately $35 billion for Texas projects.

Persons: Joe Biden, Emerson, Morgan Stanley, Economist Ellen Zentner, Zentner, Larry Fink, Jim Umpleby, Jim Cramer, Josh Pokrzywinski, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brandon Bell Organizations: Club, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Act, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Emerson Electric, Morgan Stanley Chief, Economist, CNBC, CAT, Inflation, Bank of America, National, Software, Control, Getty Locations: U.S, North America, Houston , Texas, Texas

☆ US annual inflation posts smallest rise in more than two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, the Commerce Department said. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.2% after rising 0.3% in the prior month. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 4.1%, the smallest advance since September 2021. The annual core PCE price index climbed 4.6% in May. Line chart with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve shows PCE inflation slowed to 3% year-on-year in June, while core PCE inflation also eased to 4.2%.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Cory Stahle, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commerce Department, Reuters, Treasury, Labor Department, Employers, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Ukraine, Salt Lake City , Utah

☆ Wall Street economists say rate hikes are over, even if the Fed won't admit it
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

At least that's the opinion across much of Wall Street, where the money is rising on the likelihood that Wednesday's quarter-point rate hike was the last one before the Fed goes on pause, then ultimately starts cutting. "Powell said that the FOMC will be particularly focused on the inflation data, and we expect the next few [consumer price index] reports to be soft," Mericle wrote. The implied fed funds rate for the December contract is at 5.41%, just above the midpoint of the 5.25%-5% target range following Wednesday's hike. And to be sure, not everyone on the Street thinks the Fed is done this year. The latter mark references Giannoni's belief that the Fed is probably more likely to hike twice more than it is to stop.

Persons: they're, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mericle, Dow Jones, Matthew Luzzetti, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Zentner, That's, he's, Marc Giannoni Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME Group, Gross, Commerce Department, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of America, Citigroup, Barclays Locations: Wall

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Let’s talk about the Dow
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. For the second half, the bank thinks GDP will grow 1.3%, compared with 0.6%. "India and China combined will make up 2 million barrels a day of demand pick-up in the second half of this year," he said. The bottom lineLet's talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average and why it did better than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite last week.

Persons: Michael M, Tesla, Wood, Morgan Stanley, Joe Biden's, Ellen Zentner, Joseph McMonigle, McMonigle, Sarah Min, Dow, Goldman Sachs, Gamble Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, KE Holdings, Joe Biden's Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, International Energy, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, JPMorgan Chase, Apple, Microsoft, Nike, Procter, Nvidia, UnitedHealth, Dow Locations: New York City, China, U.S, India

☆ Morgan Stanley credits Bidenomics for 'much stronger' than expected GDP growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Christina Wilkie | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As a result of these unexpected swells, Morgan Stanley now projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of this year. Morgan Stanley's revision came at a pivotal time for the Biden White House. "Together we are transforming the country, not just through jobs, not just through manufacturing, but also by rebuilding our infrastructure," Biden said Thursday during a visit to a Philadelphia shipyard. The White House has dubbed this brick-and-mortar economic growth formula "Bidenomics," a phrase originally used by Republicans to jab the president, who co-opted the term as a badge of honor. "This report confirms what we've long said: Our strong and resilient economy is Bidenomics in action," White House assistant press secretary Mike Kikukawa said in an email to CNBC.

Persons: Joe Biden, Jill Biden, WASHINGTON — Morgan Stanley, Joe Biden's, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, That's, Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Mike Kikukawa Organizations: Marine, WASHINGTON, Biden's Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Biden White House, Philadelphia shipyard, CNBC, America Economic Survey, Republicans, House Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, Philadelphia, America

☆ Q3 is likely when we will see full effect of credit tightening, says Morgan Stanley's Zentner
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailQ3 is likely when we will see full effect of credit tightening, says Morgan Stanley's ZentnerEllen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. economist, joins 'The Exchange' to talk what's next for the Federal Reserve, the latest CPI data and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Morgan Stanley Chief, Federal Reserve

☆ Real-estate guru Brandon Turner shares the low-risk investing approach his company is now taking amid housing market uncertainty — and which strategies he's avoiding
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He's still bullish on real-estate investing as a strategy to build wealth. But he's taking a buy-and-hold approach right now, and not taking out risky loans. It's hard to imagine anyone who hails the virtues of real-estate investing more than Brandon Turner. He again sang the praises of real-estate investing as a method for building generational wealth, and brushed off calls for a housing market crash that have grown louder since last year. But that's not to say Turner is particularly bullish on every investing approach right now.

Persons: Brandon Turner, He's, Turner, David Greene, that's, Skylar Olsen, Anne Curry, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Credit

☆ Against the Odds, the U.S. Economy Chugs Along, as Fears Linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the dampening effect of higher rates has confronted the robust income and spending of many households and the staying power of businesses — both buttressed by emergency pandemic support from Congress and the Fed. Though families, business managers and investors alike have had to contend with the frustrating realities of inflation and economic uncertainty, growth has continued, almost defiantly. Some economists think it might be possible to wrestle inflation down fully without causing a big jump in unemployment. “The environment of ‘pick the data point that supports your narrative’ persists,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “I still think a recession is more likely than not.”

Persons: Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, ”, Oren Klachkin, “ Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Oxford Economics

☆ Forget about a housing market crash, Harvard researchers say. Here are the 4 reasons they say a repeat of the mid-2000s drop in home prices is unlikely.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

They cited a strong labor market, low foreclosure rates, favorable demographics, and low supply. That was their biggest drop since the mid-2000s housing bubble, when home prices fell 27% over the course of a few years. As long as interest rates remain elevated, home price growth will likely continue to slow. First is that the labor market remains healthy. But so far this year, the labor market has continually surprised economists to the upside.

Persons: Hoff, Ian Shepherdson, Desmond Lachman —, millennials, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Z, it's, there's, Louis Organizations: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, Federal Reserve, Harvard Joint Center for Housing, FHFA National Mortgage Database, Federal Reserve Bank of St, JPMorgan, Mortgage, Association

☆ With more than $1 billion in deals in the works, Wall Street is poised to get back into the home buying game
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street landlords raised $110 billion to buy homes but have had a quiet year. One large transaction, and one large listing, could signal that investors are ready to start buying. The single-family rental market, a popular playground of Wall Street landlords in 2020 and 2021, has been in a deep-freeze for the last year. Rising borrowing costs and a shakier housing market halted most transactions, leaving idle much of the $110 billion raised to buy homes. The company, which was valued at nearly $2 billion last year, says it has facilitated more than $5 billion in deals.

Persons: dealmaking, Goldman Sachs, Don Mullen, DR, Barry Sternlicht's, redemptions, Gary Beasley, Roofstock, Allison Arest, Topping, Beasley, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Jay Powell, LeMaistre, everybody's Organizations: Bloomberg, Barry Sternlicht's Starwood Group, Fed Locations: Beach

☆ Morgan Stanley's chief US economist now says home prices are likely to drop only 2% in 2023. Here's why she thinks the housing downturn is virtually over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner says housing activity has bottomed. After a huge drop off in activity, demand is starting to stabilize. Yardeni ResearchThe pickup in activity has likely been due to housing affordability stabilizing. Zentner's view that the housing market is stabilizing is a big contributing factor to her call for a soft-landing scenario, where the US economy avoids a recession. But nevertheless, housing activity has bottomed, and that's probably the most important pillar to a soft-landing."

Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Zentner, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jonathan Woloshin, Suisse's Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson, undershoots, David Rosenberg Organizations: National Association of, National Association of Homebuilders, UBS Wealth Management, Rosenberg Locations: Zentner

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

☆ Credit Suisse's chief US economist says home prices will likely fall another 5-10% — and that gridlock between buyers and sellers will prevent both appreciation and a larger crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Credit Suisse's Chief US Economist Ray Farris says home prices will see a 'long recession.' Rather, the market is likely to go through a sort of holding period, where activity stays low and prices neither boom nor bust. You can spread the housing market over many more locales in the US and that's what's happening." And the way I think of that, as a base case, it means that even as mortgage rates come down, the housing market doesn't recover rapidly. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is one economist that — like Farris — doesn't expect a recession, and only sees prices falling another 4% this year.

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