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“Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations,” Hsu added. “Like December, there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography,” Hsu said. There may, however, be some relief in 2024 as mortgage rates fall in line with reduced interest rates from the Federal Reserve. “Mortgage rates will continue to remain a wild card for home shoppers,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months."

Persons: Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, ”, Danielle Hale, Lawrence Yun Organizations: University of Michigan, Republicans, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, “, Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s Locations: “, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21.4% from a year ago. On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey's director. "Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations," Hsu said. Along with the improved outlook on general conditions, survey respondents displayed more confidence that inflation is coming down. The outlook for the inflation rate a year from now declined to 2.9%, down from 3.1% in December for the lowest reading since December 2020.

Persons: Joanne Hsu, Hsu, Andrew Hunter, Stocks Organizations: Veteran, The Department of Labor, The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey, Consumers, Republicans, Federal Reserve, AAA, Capital Economics Locations: Long Beach , California

☆ Weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since September 2022
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The labor market continued to show surprising resiliency in the early days of 2024, with initial jobless claims posting an unexpected drop last week. Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since Sept. 24, 2022, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The total marked a 16,000 decline from the previous week and came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 208,000. Along with the drop in weekly claims came an unexpected decline of 26,000 in continuing claims, which run a week behind. The total for continuing claims hit 1.806 million, below the FactSet estimate for 1.83 million.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Central

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Wall Street should worry about retail
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, so a recession is nearly impossible as long as consumer spending is growing. Wednesday’s report is expected to be a good one — economists polled by FactSet expect that a strong holiday shopping season boosted consumer spending by 0.4% in December from the month prior. But new data from the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday has soured the mood on Wall Street. The outlook for consumer spending doesn’t look so bright, either. The trend marked the deepening of a demographic challenge set to have significant implications on the world’s second largest economy, report my colleagues Laura He and Simone McCarthy.

Persons: Alicia Wallace, shutdowns, It’s, Brian Moynihan, ”, CNN’s Richard Quest, they’ve, Bob Iger, Samantha Delouya, Walt Disney, Iger’s, Disney, Laura, Simone McCarthy Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, FactSet, New York Federal Reserve, Consumer, Hamas, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Economic, Disney, National Bureau of Statistics, Communist, NBS Locations: New York, Suez, Iranian, Asia, Europe, United States, Drewry, Davos, Switzerland, China, Communist China

☆ Americans are pulling back on their spending, but debt remains top of mind
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.

Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The number of job openings fell sharply in October, to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.35 million a month earlier, according to the Labor Department. The number released Tuesday was lower than economists had forecast and suggests that the labor market is slowing as the year comes to an end. “Job openings dropped to 8,733,000 in October, the lowest level since March 2021. Despite some volatile jumps/drops month-to-month, job openings have been on a downward trend since early 2022,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist and senior manager on Glassdoor’s economic research team, posted on social media. The Federal Reserve will be looking at the latest readings on the labor market as they come one week before officials meet to consider monetary policy.

Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, Jeffrey Roach, Joanie Bily, ” Bily, “, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, LPL, American Staffing Association, ” Nomura Securities, Hollywood, Government, Federal, Fed

☆ Japan's aging population offers a roadmap for the US economy's inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Eurizon strategists forecast US inflation to steadily fall to the Fed's target of 2%. Since the 1990s, Japan's aging population has caused inflation and interest rates to fall. By Eurizon's calculations, Japan's labor force peaked in 2019, at 1.7 times its size from 1950, which suggests an average annual labor force growth rate of 0.77 percent a year through the expansion. Similarly, China's labor force peak from 2018 will likely be pushed back by new policies. Eurizon SLJ Capital LimitedAs more countries follow Japan's demographic path, inflation should follow a similar trajectory.

Persons: —, Stephen Jen, Joana Freire, Jen, Freire Organizations: Service, Japan, JPMorgan, Bank of, SLJ, Bank of America Locations: Japan, South Korea, Italy, China, EU, India

☆ UK's Jeremy Hunt to announce tax cuts aimed at reviving stagnant economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Autumn Statement budget announcement on Wednesday, facing pressure from within the ruling Conservative Party to implement tax cuts as the country's economy stagnates. Hunt will have more money at his disposal than a year ago and is under pressure from the right of his party to enact tax cuts. He is expected to announce reductions in National Insurance and business tax, while one Treasury minister has suggested that personal taxes could also be coming down. While Hunt has not ruled out tax cuts, he has emphasized the fragile state of the economy and reiterated that reducing living costs is the government's priority. The U.K. Treasury last week announced £4.5 billion ($5.6 billion) in funding for British manufacturing to boost investment in eight sectors across the U.K., available for a five-year period from 2025.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak's, Liz Truss, Hunt, Sunak Organizations: Finance, Conservative Party, Bank of England's, National Insurance, Treasury, Labour Party Locations: U.K

☆ Sterling eases after cooler British inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Sterling eased on Wednesday after data showed British inflation cooled more than forecast in October, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will be cutting interest rates by the middle of next year. Sterling was last down 0.2% on the day at $1.2471 by 0724 GMT, compared with $1.2487 shortly before the data. The figures reinforced the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve has probably also finished raising interest rates. Money markets show traders believe there is a good chance the BoE could start cutting rates by May next year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, BoE, Richard Garland, Rishi Sunak, we’ve, Huw Pill, Amanda Cooper, Alun John, Robert Birsel Organizations: Pound, U.S, REUTERS, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Omnis Investments, government's Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: September's, Britain

☆ Inflation cooled off in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation cooled off in October based on new year-over-year data out Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index increased 3.2% year over year in October, less than the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in September. AdvertisementInflation cooled but is still above the Fed's 2% target per the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, for October. The year-over-year increase in October was just less than the forecast of 3.3%, and the increase is less than the September's 3.7% year-over-year increase . AdvertisementThe food index didn't see as large an increase as the shelter index, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Kelly, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Asset Management, PMI, Federal Reserve, Federal

☆ October's inflation report 'broke the hiking cycle's back,' and signals the Fed is done raising rates, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America changed its Fed outlook on Tuesday after a softer-than-expected CPI report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementOctober's softer-than-expected inflation reading prompted Bank of America on Tuesday to change its outlook on further interest rate increases, with strategists declaring that the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle is over. Inflation in October came in at 3.2% year-over-year, down from 3.7% in September and the lowest reading since June. In its note on Tuesday, the bank called the report "the straw that broke the hiking cycle's back."

Persons: —, Katie Stockton, seasonality, Stockton Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Markets, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: New York

☆ Euro zone recession fears harden
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone business activity accelerated last month as demand in the dominant services industry weakened further, a survey showed on Monday, suggesting there is a growing chance of a recession in the 20-country currency union. The economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, official data has shown, and Monday's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October indicated the bloc entered the final quarter of 2023 on the back foot. Services activity in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slipped back into contraction in October amid persistent weakness in demand while in France it shrank again. In another bright spot, investor morale in the euro zone rose more than expected at the start of November, with expectations for the future at their rosiest since early this year, Sentix's index showed on Monday. Policymakers there, who have failed to get inflation to target, will likely take some cheer from easing price pressures shown in the PMI survey, as both the input and output prices indexes fell from their September readings.

Persons: Adrian Prettejohn, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson, Toby Chopra Organizations: PMI, P Global, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: September's, COVID, Germany, Europe's, France, Spain

Private employers added 113,000 workers in October, led by the education and health care sectors, payroll firm ADP said on Wednesday. “No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behind us,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 605 ImagesThe ADP report kicks off the week’s focus on employment data. “The 1.1% rise in the Employment Cost Index in Q3 was a touch stronger than expected but showed labor cost pressures continue to slowly ease on trend,” said Wells Fargo economists. “With the ECI still running north of 4%, labor cost growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, “, it's, Wells, Rucha Vankudre, ” Vankudre Organizations: Labor Department, “

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The inflation that has been wearing on European consumers fell sharply to 2.9% in October, its lowest in more than two years as fuel prices fell and rapid interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank took hold. Inflation fell from an annual 4.3% in September as fuel prices fell by 11.1% and painful food inflation slowed, to 7.5%. The lower inflation figure follows a rapid series of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. The future path of inflation toward the ECB's target remain uncertain because core inflation, excluding volatile fuel and food prices, remains higher than the headline figure, at 4.2%. The current burst of inflation was set off as the global economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to shortages of parts and raw materials.

Persons: Rory Fennessy, ”, Jack Allen, Reynolds Organizations: European Central Bank, European, Oxford Economics, European Central Bank . Higher, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, France, Europe, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow, U.S

In the United States, the manufacturing sector pulled out of a five-month contraction on a pickup in new orders, and services activity accelerated modestly amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. HEADACHE FOR THE ECBIn the euro zone, business activity drooped as demand fell in a broad-based downturn across the region, causing the bloc to enter the fourth quarter on the wrong foot and suggesting it may slip into recession. "The flash PMIs mark a poor start to October for the euro zone, especially after showing some early signs of recovery in September," said Rory Fennessy at Oxford Economics. Suggesting a recession is well underway in Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity contracted there for a fourth straight month as the downturn in manufacturing was matched by a renewed decline in services, its PMI showed. In France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, business activity remained in contraction territory in October, PMI data showed, improving just slightly from September's near three-year low.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Chris Williamson, Christine Lagarde's, Rory Fennessy, Williamson, Ajay Banga, Dan Burns, Jonathan Cable, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle, REUTERS, P Global, Composite, Federal, Commerce Department, Reuters, P, P Global Market Intelligence, P Global PMI, September's, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, PMI, European Union, Bank of, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dearborn , Michigan, U.S, United States, joblessness, Germany, Europe's, France, September's, Britain, Gaza, Ukraine

☆ Euro zone PMI hits lowest in nearly 3 years, stirs recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide to overall economic health, fell to 46.5 in October from September's 47.2, its lowest since November 2020. "In the euro zone, things are moving from bad to worse," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "We wouldn't be caught off guard to see a mild recession in the euro zone in the second half of this year with two back to back quarters of negative growth." While the 20-country euro zone will narrowly dodge a recession, according to a recent Reuters poll, the economy was expected to have only flatlined last quarter and will do the same again in the current one. The composite employment index fell to 49.4 from 50.8.

Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Carrefour, REUTERS, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Service, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Montesson, Paris, France, September's, Hamburg

WEST READING, Pa. (AP) — A Pennsylvania chocolate factory was fined more than $44,000 by the federal workplace safety agency on Thursday for failing to evacuate before a natural gas explosion that killed seven people. Palmer Co. did not heed warnings from employees about a natural gas leak, according to the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which issued multiple citations to the company. Palmer Co. did not evacuate the facility after being told of a suspected gas leak,” OSHA Area Director Kevin T. Chambers, of the agency’s Harrisburg office, said in a written statement. Employees in both buildings told federal investigators they could smell gas before the explosion. Workers at the plant have accused Palmer of ignoring warnings of a natural gas leak, saying the plant, in a small town 60 miles (96 kilometers) northwest of Philadelphia, should have been evacuated.

Persons: Kevin T, Chambers, ” Palmer, Palmer Organizations: Palmer Co, . Occupational Safety, Health Administration, Palmer, Employees, Workers Locations: Pennsylvania, Palmer, Harrisburg, West Reading, Philadelphia

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in August, slightly below estimates, while the yearly rise was 3.5%. But it was the core index that strips out food and energy prices coming in at 3.9%, its lowest reading since September of 2021, that is likely of most interest to the Fed. While goods prices have slowed considerably, costs in the services sector have proven harder to bring down, driven largely by housing prices. Looked at just over the past three months, the rate of core inflation has slowed markedly and is not far from the Fed’s 2% annual target. “PCE and core pce figures indicate continued inflation easing,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, commented on X.

Persons: “, ”, Carol Schleif, ” Kathy Jones, Andrew Patterson, Downside, ” Patterson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, PCE, BMO Family Office, Schwab Center, Financial Research

☆ Euro zone economy likely contracted this quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely contract this quarter and won't return to growth anytime soon, a survey showed, as the dampening effect of central banks' long campaign of interest rates rises becomes clearer. HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 47.1 in September from August's 33-month low of 46.7. "The increase in the ECB key interest rate by 450 basis points in the meantime is slowing down the economy in all euro countries." OUT OF ORDERSeptember's fall in overall activity in the euro zone came despite firms barely increasing their charges. The services PMI rose to 48.4 from 47.9 but spent its second month below the breakeven mark this year.

Persons: Christoph Weil, France's, Andrew Bailey, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, August's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, ECB, PMI, European Union, Bank of England, Carrefour, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ING, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Commerzbank, Europe's, Britain, Montesson, Paris, France, Spain

☆ US stocks fall as 10-year Treasury yield surges to highest since 2007 after Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell on Thursday as the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007. Jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, signaling the labor market remains tight. The 10-year US Treasury rate jumped to a high of 4.49% on Thursday, representing its highest level since October 2007. "He underscored numerous times that while the Fed remains data dependent and can proceed carefully, but another rate hike remains on the table as the Fed is seemingly wedded towards restoring price stability," LPL Financial strategist Quincy Krosby told Insider. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, the lowest reading since January and below economist estimates of 225,000, signaling the labor market remains tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US stocks end higher but Wall Street closes out losing week amid interest rate concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major indexes ended Friday higher but were down on the week as rate fears persisted. Signs of a tight labor market renewed fears of further interest rate hikes this year. Apple fell 5% during the week on fears of a widening crackdown in China on the use of iPhones. Through the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.26%, the Dow fell 0.53%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.11%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 43.5% of investors are expecting an interest rate hike in November.

Persons: John Williams, Apple Organizations: Apple, Service, Dow, Nasdaq, New York Fed, Here's, Dow Jones Locations: China, Wall, Silicon

☆ Global business activity showed signs of slowdown in August -PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Germany's services sector contracted for the first time this year and France's shrank more than first estimated. Japan proved an outlier as service sector activity expanded there at its quickest pace in three months, underpinned by robust consumer spending as inbound tourism regained momentum. "August's services PMI pointed to a contraction in UK private sector activity. ASIAN PAINChina's Caixin/S&P Global services PMI dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July, the lowest reading since December when COVID-19 confined many consumers to their homes. The data broadly aligned with the official services PMI released last week, which showed the sector continued to trend downwards.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Adrian Prettejohn, Martin Beck, Duncan Wrigley, Jonathan Cable, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, RBC, P Global, Capital Economics, PMI, Bank of Japan, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, India, Japan, Asia, July's, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, COVID

☆ GLOBAL ECONOMY Global business activity showed signs of slowdown in August -PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was reinforced by a survey from the Conference Board showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market cooled in August. Nevertheless, labor market conditions remain tight, with 1.51 job openings for every unemployed person in July, compared to 1.54 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.465 million job openings. State and local government education job openings declined by 62,000 and there were 27,000 fewer federal government vacancies. Reuters GraphicsDeclining job openings are likely to be mirrored by slower job growth in August.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Conrad DeQuadros, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Scott Anderson, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Board, Brean, Reuters, Midwest, Reuters Graphics, LPL Financial, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Northeast, West, Wyoming, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, San Francisco

☆ 'Interest rates are killing our industry': Here's what businesses are saying about the Fed's impact on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are having a negative impact on the economy. "Interest rates are killing our industry," said an executive from the transportation equipment sector. AdvertisementAdvertisement"High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before... interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates," one survey respondent in the computer and electronic product manufacturing industry said. Finally, a survey respondent from the transportation equipment manufacturing industry had this to say about what the Fed is doing with interest rates: "Interest rates are killing our industry."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson Organizations: Dallas Fed's, Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Locations: Dallas Fed's Texas, Dallas

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