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☆ Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 5.0% on Monday, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week. The run-up in yields on the 10-year Treasury bond, seen as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty and a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world, has been driven by investors pricing in stronger U.S. growth as well as fiscal slippage. The 10-year yield touched 5.004% on Monday, up around 8 basis points (bps) on the day. Treasury borrowing costs have climbed, and a divided Congress has bickered over next year's spending bills while using stopgap measures to avert a shutdown of government operations. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury was last up 4 bps at 5.125%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Kyle Rodda, Vidya Ranganathan, Harry Robertson, Kevin Buckland, Neil Fullick, Alun John Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Israel

The individuals' accounts varied but were consistent in describing heightened scrutiny of overseas travel even after China reopened borders in January. Reuters is reporting these measures and the scope of some post-COVID travel curbs for the first time. NEW LIMITSRestrictions on personal foreign travel have long applied to senior government officials and state executives with access to confidential information. MAPPING CONNECTIONSChinese authorities are also scrutinising personal foreign ties, according to a document seen by Reuters, one of the 10 people who discussed travel curbs and three other state-enterprise workers with knowledge of the matter. Thomas said the travel curbs in particular would have implications for China's interactions with the world.

Persons: Carlos Garcia Rawlins, Xi, Neil Thomas, Thomas, Wang Zhi'an, Engen Tham, Julie Zhu, Kane Wu, Xie Yu, Martin Quin Pollard, David Crawshaw, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Asia Society, Center for, State, Information Office, Communist Party, China Construction Bank, China Development Bank, National Council for Social Security Fund, Municipal Eco, Communist, Communist Youth League, Ministry of State Security, U.S . Central Intelligence Agency, CIA, Beijing, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing, Rights SHANGHAI, HONG KONG, Center for China, Washington, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hong Kong, Singapore, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Japan, Italy

☆ Safe-haven dollar steady near one-week high on Middle East conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The dollar held near a one-week high on Monday with fragile sentiment against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East supporting demand for the safe-haven currency. "The conflict between Israel and Hamas continues and is providing volatility to the financial markets with the traditional safe-haven flows. There was some respite for the euro and sterling, which were off one-week lows touched on Friday against the dollar. YEN WATCHINGThe yen was flat at 149.54 per dollar, close to the sensitive 150-level. The yen is still perceived as a safe asset along with the Swiss franc and U.S. dollar, Kanda added.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Jens Peter Sørensen, Benjamin Netanyahu, Poland's zloty, Lukazs Janczak, Christopher Luxon, Masato Kanda, Kanda, James Malcolm, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kirsten Donovan, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Hamas, Danske Bank, country's, Sterling, Erste Group, National Party, ACT, New Zealand, Swiss, ., UBS, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Israel, Israeli, Poland, New, London

☆ Yen intervention a hard sell even as 150 to the dollar 'red line' beckons
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But, Japanese authorities could find propping up their currency both difficult to achieve and hard to justify. To make even a ripple in the $5 trillion currency market, the BOJ would need to draw down massive amounts of dollar reserves. Wakabayashi, like many other analysts and investors, considers the 150 yen per dollar level a red line for currency intervention, not least because of its significance as a symbol of climbing costs of living from imported food and fuel. INTERVENTION IMMINENTThe yen careened to a 32-year trough at 151.94 last October before being reined in by several bouts of heavy intervention, the first by Japanese authorities in a generation. Measures of expected market volatility remain subdued.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Bank of Japan's hesitancy, Kazuo Ueda, You've, they're, Bart Wakabayashi, Fumio Kishida, Shunichi Suzuki, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ray Attrill, Janet Yellen, Aninda Mitra, Mitra, Kevin Buckland, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan's, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, State Street Bank, Trust, Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Ministry of Finance, National Australia Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Washington, Asia, London

☆ Inverted U.S. yields lure investors into short-term bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Patturaja Murugaboopathy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

One-year Treasury note yields are about a percentage point higher than those on 10-year bonds. That has meant global investors can avoid the relatively less liquid, longer-tenure bonds just for the sake of extra yield and premium. LSEG Lipper data shows U.S. short-term bond funds have outperformed this year, delivering a gain of 2.2% in price terms compared with an average 2.1% dip in long-term bond funds. Most analysts expect short-term bond funds to continue to lure more money in the months ahead. "We are anchoring portfolios with the higher yielding short-term bonds.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Coons, SPDR, MATURITIES, Matt Dmytryszyn, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Winthrop's Coons, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Morningstar, Treasury, Reuters, Winthrop Capital Management, Federal Reserve, SPDR Bloomberg, Thornburg Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Telemus, Bengaluru

☆ Take Five: An inflationary dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The week ahead brings more evidence of how much progress is left for developed-economy policymakers, while in the emerging world, India is set to enter the bond-market big time and a raft of central banks wrestle with a dilemma. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.3% in the 12 months through July. Line chart with data from LSEG Datastream show the U.S.'s inflation on personal consumption expenditures (PCE), core PCE inflation and the federal funds target rate from 2019 to 2023. Reuters Graphics5\ASIA'S CURRENCY CONUNDRUMAsian central banks have a dilemma: how to handle weakening economic growth and peaking inflation, while arresting the slide in currencies to maintain stability in their financial systems. But much may rest on decisions of other central banks further afield, namely the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Perry Warjiyo, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, CLUB India, JPMorgan, Russell, Bank of, Bank, Thailand, Reserve, Thomson Locations: India, Vidya Ranganathan, Singapore, New York, London, Washington, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Bank of Indonesia, Philippine

☆ Morning Bid: Bank of Japan also holds policy and stays dovish
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. The yen fell in response, even as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki spoke of the urgency to contain its fall. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank will abolish the 10-year yield control scheme by the end of 2024. More than half reckon that the negative interest rate policy will end next year, too. Further complicating the picture for investors, however, were the surprisingly dovish decisions from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank.

Persons: Issei Kato, Vidya Ranganathan, Shunichi Suzuki, Kazuo Ueda, Bond, Fumio Kishida, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Reuters, MSCI's, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Vidya, MSCI's Asia, India, Australia, Germany, France, Britain

[1/2] A South Korea won note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. South Korean companies repatriated a record $33.13 billion of overseas earnings during the January-July period, 6.3 times the amount a year earlier, central bank data on current account balances showed. "The coming home of earnings retained abroad has been a big help for the won," a government official in charge of foreign exchange market said, asking not to be named due to internal policy. The automaker said on June 12 it plans to invest 7.8 trillion won ($5.82 billion) of retained earnings from overseas operations this year in electric car factories at home. The surge in repatriation also comes ahead of trading reforms planned for next year, when South Korea will extend onshore trading hours until 2 a.m. to improve access for foreign investors.

Persons: Thomas White, Yoon Suk, Hong Sung, kook, Min Gyeong, 1,340.7400, Jihoon Lee, Cynthia Kim, Joyce Lee, Heekyong Yang, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: South, REUTERS, Rights, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Kia Corp, Reuters Graphics Bank of Korea, Woori Bank, Hyundai, Hyundai Motor Group, Shinhan Bank, Yena, Thomson Locations: South Korea, Rights SEOUL, Korea

REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/SINGAPORE, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hovered near a six-month high on Monday as traders looked ahead to interest rate decisions this week from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. the yen was up a similar amount at 147.69 to the dollar, with traders out for a Japanese public holiday. Traders were looking towards central bank decisions later in the week which could shake up the currency market. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold in the 5.25% to 5.5% range on Wednesday. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4% last week, but said this hike could be its last.

Persons: Lee Jae, Alvin Tan, RBC's Tan, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda's, Carol Kong, Ueda, Sterling, BoE, Harry Robertson, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln, Bernadette Baum, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Traders, Investors, Bank of, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Seoul, SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Europe, China, Bank of England, Ukraine, London, Singapore

☆ Japan's yen takes the spotlight in central bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Vidya Ranganathan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday is the highlight of the week in Asia, after Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked speculation of an imminent move away from ultra-loose policy. The yen was flat versus the greenback between 147.63 and 147.88 per dollar, with markets in Japan closed for a national holiday. "Anticipation of new BOJ rate guidance could support the yen into the meeting date, with the FOMC meeting also contributing to volatility this week," Chang said. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4% last week but said this hike could be its last. Futures are pricing in almost no chance that the Fed raises interest rates at the end of its two-day meeting next Wednesday.

Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Kazuo Ueda, That's, Carol Kong, Kong, Ueda, Wei, Liang Chang, Chang, Sterling, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, The, of, U.S . Federal, Bank of, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, DBS Bank, European Central Bank, Japan, . U.S, Treasury, The Bank of England, Brent, Saudi, Global, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Bank of England, Japan, ., U.S, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: Chips are down
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The global chip sector is stealing the spotlight from major central banks, after the world's top contract chipmaker raised concerns over demand, hitting share prices of semiconductor stocks. In a week packed with central bank meetings, decisions are also due from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday. After the European Central Bank's fireworks last week, the euro will be closely watched as a signal for whether the backlash from more hawkish ECB members is gaining any traction with traders and investors. The BOE is likely to hike interest rates for the 15th time later in the week, while the Fed seems set for a hawkish pause. One more little complication is the steady grind higher in oil prices to new highs that is stoking inflation concerns, just as central banks in most developed economies are at or approaching the end of their tightening cycles.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, chipmaker, There's, Kazuo Ueda, BOE, Guindos, Panetta, Sam Holmes Organizations: Vidya, Reuters, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, International, Co, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Thomson Locations: Asia, Detroit

☆ Morning Bid: Shedding pounds, buying dollars
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 29, 2023. Investors are also focusing on English football club Manchester United (MANU.N), whose shares fell 18% on Tuesday in their steepest one-day decline. Brent crude is above $90 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year. Weakness in demand will be the focus of data today as Germany releases July manufacturing data and the euro zone shows us what retailers were doing in July. Not much, going by the share price of French luxury group LVMH (LVMH.PA), which was just dethroned from pole position in Europe's most-valuable list.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, Glazer, Sterling, Philip Morris, Brent, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Vidya, Investors, English, Manchester United, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Labor, Canada BOC, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Danish, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe's, Poland, U.S, Canada

☆ Exclusive: Chinese exporters using currency swaps to retain dollars as yuan sags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The swaps allow exporters to place their dollars with banks and get yuan instead, but through a contract that will eventually reverse the flows and give them back their dollars. However, while they remove a much-needed source of dollar supplies into spot yuan markets, analysts reckon Chinese monetary authorities can't really force exporters to convert dollars. When exporters swap higher-yielding dollars for the cheaper yuan for even 3 months, they get local currency for business needs and also earn a pick-up of an annualised 3.5% on the swap deal. "By trading FX swaps, exporters can postpone their settlements while meeting their yuan demand," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. Exporters' swaps, meanwhile, give state banks a pile of dollars to use in their yuan operations, in which they can undertake swaps to acquire the dollars from the onshore forwards market and sell them in the spot market to stem fast yuan declines.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ding, Gary Ng, Becky Liu, Jindong Zhang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Traders, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Standard Chartered Bank, China Merchants Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, U.S, Shanghai, China, Natixis, Singapore

A record 38 QDII funds had been launched this year until August 17, outpacing the 31 funds launched in 2022, Morningstar data shows. Tianhong, which is planning new QDII products, obtained a $120 million fresh QDII quota in July, less than it had hoped for. Rather than foreign capital selling China equities, this time it's Chinese investors’ outbound investment,” Liu said. HUGE DEMANDThe QDII program, launched in 2006, remains a key outbound investment channel for mainland Chinese investors, alongside the Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership (QDLP) programme. Tracy Liu, an individual investor working in the information technology industry, invested in an India-focused QDII fund in March.

Persons: Aly, Ivan Shi, Liu Dong, Becky Liu, Liu, ” Liu, Desiree Wang, Tracy Liu, Summer Zhen, Samuel Shen, Jason Xue, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Morningstar, Domestic Institutional, Nasdaq, Ben Advisors, Connect, Bond, U.S, Dow Jones, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Tianhong, Management, Ant Financial, Standard Chartered Bank, Reuters, Qualified Domestic Limited, Asset Management Association of China, Guangfa NASDAQ, Technology, Morgan Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management China, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, U.S, HONG KONG, SHANGHAI, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, outflows, Japan, Russia

☆ Exclusive: China asks banks to limit some Connect bond outflows
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. "And it could also drive offshore yuan yields higher to support the renminbi." The southbound leg of the two-year-old Bond Connect scheme allows mainland institutional investors to purchase bonds traded in Hong Kong. Several measures have been aimed at raising the cost of shorting the yuan offshore. China's state-owned banks have taken steps to squeeze yuan this week by mopping up cash from the market, other sources told Reuters earlier this week.

Persons: Florence Lo, Ken Cheung, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Bond, People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Reuters, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Beijing

REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) - China's banks will cut deposit rates soon as part of efforts to make mortgages more affordable and revive property demand, analysts reading China's cryptic policy messages reckon. But China did not opt for a broad rate cut that would further depress banks' narrow net interest margins, instead deferring to banks to cut their deposit rates and give themselves room to cheapen mortgages, analysts said. Lowering deposit rates will give banks much needed wiggle room to cut mortgage rates. "Further reductions to the deposit rates are 'arrows on the string,'" said Wang Yifeng, banking analyst at Everbright Securities. He also expects a tweak to rules so that existing mortgage rates can be reset lower.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Wang Yifeng, Zhu Qibing, LPR, Zhu, Lu Ting, Lu, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Samuel Shen, Vidya Ranganathan, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: China Securities Regulatory Commission, REUTERS, Rights, Bankers, Everbright Securities, People's Bank of China, BOC International China, Nomura, ANZ, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Shanghai, Singapore

REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG/AMSTERDAM, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Global investors fleeing China have one simple message for the country's leadership: put prudence aside for a short while, and start spending big. "At this point there is confusion and, as long as there is confusion, then there's lack of credibility and that means investors are more likely to stay away," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors in London. Prominent examples are heavy Chinese government spending during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and its swift intervention during the 2015 market crash. But the subsidies need to come from local governments, many of which are cash-strapped or even drowning in debt and unable to pay their civil servants. The lack of concrete stimulus measures now is prompting many China watchers to downgrade their growth estimates for the next few years.

Persons: Aly, China's, Seema Shah, Chen Zhao, Zhao, hasn't, Frederik Ducrozet, Ducrozet, Principal's Shah, Yan Wang, Xi Jinping's, we’ve, Lorraine Tan, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Yoruk, Xie Yu, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Westbrook, Li Gu, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Global Investors, policymaking Politburo, Pictet Wealth Management, Local, UBS Bank, Federated Hermes, Foreigners, Asia, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: Huangpu, Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, AMSTERDAM, London, Beijing, Japan, United States, New York, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Singapore

Their new platform is cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (COIN.O), which on Aug. 16 became the first crypto-focused firm to win approval to offer cryptocurrency futures to U.S. retail customers. Yet, trading volumes in derivatives decreased by nearly 13% in July to $1.85 trillion, the lowest monthly volume since December 2022 and second lowest derivatives trading volumes since 2021, research firm CCData reported. Derivatives made up 78.2% of the total cryptocurrency trading volume on centralized exchanges in July, CCData reported. Spot cryptocurrency trading volumes also fell 10.5% to $515 billion in the same period, CCData showed. This essentially means that there is potential for growth in derivatives trading.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lucas Kiely, languish, disinclined, Todd Groth, CCData, Dessislava Aubert, Lisa Mattackal, Medha Singh, Sumanta Sen, Vidya Ranganathan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Derivatives, Research, Reuters, Thomson Locations: United States, Bengaluru

The one unanimous conclusion they came to was that Beijing wants a greater state presence in these sectors. Kroeber says the crackdowns are about "defining what the state does, what the private sector does, and creating a more limited sandbox for the private sector to play in." That has left investors now picking the state over the private sector. The CCP's July Politburo meeting reinforced the message, with the top policymaking body pledging to put a floor under the property sector, help indebted local governments heal and boost consumer demand. Huang Yan, general manager of private fund manager Shanghai QiuYang Capital Co, said Beijing will crack down on any sector seen as increasing people's economic burden.

Persons: Aly, Jack, Arthur Kroeber, Kroeber, Zhang Kexing, Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong's, Thomas Masi, Masi, Xi, Nuno Fernandes, Fernandes, Huang Yan, Huang, Kumar Pandit, Pandit, Jason Xue, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Ant Group, CSI Medical Services, Beijing Tongrentang, HK, Poly, Beijing Gelei Asset Management, Communist Party's, Investors, Mao Zedong's Marxist, Boston, K Investment Management, Shanghai QiuYang, Somerset Capital, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Rights SHANGHAI, HONGKONG, Beijing, New York, London, Singapore

Yields on one-year real estate bonds rated AA- have widened 220 bps in the past month, data from Chinabond shows. That divergence reflects investors' expectations that Beijing will support LGFVs in order to minimise financial contagion, despite rising delinquencies among developers. Yields on LGFV bonds issued in August averaged around 3.9%, the lowest seen this year, according to data provider Dealing Matrix(DM). The chorus of economists calling for China to support LGFVs as part of measures to shore up the economy has grown. Chi Lo, Hong Kong-based senior economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said Beijing needs to refinance LGFV debt over the next three to five years to prevent the system from imploding.

Persons: Aly, Zhu Yangmo, LGFVs, Zhu, Chi Lo, Li Gu, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China Central Depository, Asset Management, Garden Holdings, HK, China International Capital Corp, Tianjin Infrastructure Investment Group, AAA, China, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Hainan, Beijing, Tianjin, Hong Kong, imploding, Singapore

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoHONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Chinese fears of a spillover from missed payments on some shadow banking linked trust products and worsening consumer sentiment are expected to hasten a policy response to revive the country's cash-starved property sector. Zhongrong International Trust Co, which traditionally had sizable real estate exposure, has recently missed repayments on some investment products, fuelling contagion fears. 'CONTAGION'The trust sector had been a major fundraising channel for property developers seeking rapid expansion. The outstanding value of trust products invested in the property sector was 1.2 trillion yuan as of end-2022, down about 30% year-on-year. Still, exposure to the real estate sector varies from different trust firms.

Persons: Aly, Yan Wang, Nomura, Arthur Kroeber, Kamil Dimmich, Phillip Wool, Wool, Vidya Ranganathan, Laura Matthews, David Randall, Ziyi Tang, Sumeet Chatterjee, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, HONG KONG, Trust Co, Barclays, International Trust, South Capital LLP, China Equity ETF, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Zhongrong, Beijing, New York, London, Singapore, Summer Zhen

Analysts see the same lack of confidence in today's Chinese households and companies that Japan grappled with in the 1990s. But in China's case there is a key difference; there is no deflationary threat yet, nor have banks switched off lending. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. China's policymakers have cut rates and encouraged banks to lend more in efforts to revive economic growth after the pandemic. China's 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil's population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year.

Persons: Florence Lo, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, Byron Gill, Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, John, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo's, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai, Singapore

Over the two trading days since, the market has tried to second-guess the pace at which the BOJ wants yields to move, while the BOJ has run special bond-buying operations to cap yields. "There is only a very, very small possibility of a sudden or very steep rise in JGB yields, because too many people want to buy the bonds. The maximum yield investors demanded was 0.6%, just 10 basis points (bps) above the previous policy cap. The promise of an extra 10-20 bps of JGB yield means 10-year JGBs hedged from dollars into yen can yield upwards of 6%. As per BOJ data, lifers and pension funds held roughly 26% of a 1,132 trillion yen ($7.93 trillion) JGB market at the end of 2019.

Persons: It's, we've, Ales Koutny, Rong Ren Goh, BOJ, Tomoya Masanao, Masanao, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Bank of Japan, JGBs, Vanguard Asset Management, Eastspring Investments, Foreigners, U.S, Nippon Life, Asia Pacific, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, TOKYO, United States, Europe, Singapore, JGBs, Belgian, Japan, PIMCO, Sydney, London

☆ Factbox: China's measures to slow yuan depreciation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. The informal instruction, or the so-called window guidance, was meant to slow the pace of yuan depreciation, the sources said. China's yuan has lost 3.6% against the dollar to 7.16 per dollar, becoming one of the worst performing Asian currencies. ** July 20, 2023China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars to buy yuan in the offshore spot market in early Asian trades, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. ** June 29, 2023China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars for yuan in the onshore spot foreign exchange market, sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Winni Zhou, Vidya Ranganathan, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, People's Bank of China, prudential, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China

☆ Exclusive: China asks some banks to reduce or delay dollar buying -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

One source said regulators were emphatic banks should hold off dollar purchases under their proprietary trading accounts due to the "recent yuan depreciation". "The yuan exchange rate expectations are stable, and the foreign exchange market has the foundation to meet authentic and compliant FX needs," SAFE said in response to a Reuters query. Keeping non-urgent dollar demand at bay could relieve some of the immediate pressure on the yuan, the sources said. But that excitement soon faded, as domestic and foreign investors said they would wait for substantive action before putting more money into China. There was also a seasonal factor too, as overseas-listed Chinese companies usually need more foreign exchange in the summer to pay dividends to shareholders.

Persons: China's, Ken Cheung, Alvin Tan, Tan, Goldman Sachs, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S ., People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Reuters, Mizuho Bank, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Goldman, Overseas, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Hong Kong, Asia, China, Shanghai, Beijing

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