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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street disagrees with main street
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] FOMC meeting this weekThe Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday will be the main event to keep an eye on for this week. "Investors remained upbeat about the outlook for stocks and the economy in August," according to a Vanguard Investor Expectations Survey. In that open space between breaths, equilibrium between Wall Street and main street may be reached.

Persons: Gabby Jones, Hong, Kospi, Joe Biden, there's, Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan, CNBC's, Mahajan, Ray, Greg Bassuk Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Index, Nikkei, China, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S, Initiative, FedEx, University of Michigan, Consumers, Survey, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: New York, Asia, Pacific, China Venture, China, India, East, Europe

☆ Nasdaq, S&P end lower as rising US Treasury yields sink big tech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( David French | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 12, 2023. It was the first time this year that the Nasdaq notched two weekly losses in a row. Megacap growth and technology stocks have led outsized gains this year in the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the S&P 500 (.SPX). According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.52 points, or 0.10%, to end at 4,464.31 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 73.83 points, or 0.54%, to 13,647.20. The energy sector's increase was aided by crude prices rising on forecasts for tightening supplies from the International Energy Agency.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Refinitiv, We've, Jason Betz, Ameriprise's Betz, Rupert Murdoch, JD.com, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, David French, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Ameriprise, Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow Jones, University of Michigan, International Energy Agency . Occidental Petroleum Corp, U.S, News Corp, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru, New York

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 12, 2023. U.S. producer price index (PPI) climbed 0.8% in the 12 months leading to July, up from a 0.2% rise in the previous month, as costs of services increased. The drop in megacap growth and technology stocks, which have led outsized gains this year, has put the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the S&P 500 (.SPX) on track to end lower for a second straight week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.10-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.49-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded four new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 34 new highs and 131 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Refinitiv, David Russell, Russell, Rupert Murdoch, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Corp, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Microsoft, Benchmark, Dow Jones, University of Michigan, News Corp, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, JD.com, Bengaluru

☆ American price elasticity stretched to the limit
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The United States may be over the hump on inflation, but consumers aren’t acting like it. Lingering restraint will stretch the power of price elasticity to its limits. Similarly, PepsiCo’s (PEP.O) 14% increase in North American prices of Mountain Dew, Tropicana orange juice and other beverages cost it 4% in quarterly sales. Strong appetites for Oreos and Wheat Thins lifted Mondelez International’s (MDLZ.O) sales 2% in the United States, Canada and Mexico, even as prices climbed 10%. They have climbed 3.5% from a year earlier, surpassing the 3.2% annual increase in the Consumer Price Index.

Persons: Mondelez, Darden, Ricardo Cardenas, Laxman Narasimhan, Marriott, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, of Michigan, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital, Procter & Gamble, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: States, Dew, United States, Canada, Mexico, American

SummaryCompanies JPMorgan, Wells Fargo up as Q2 profit rises on higher interest incomeUnitedHealth rises on Q2 profit beatFutures mixed: Dow adds 0.33%, S&P up 0.02%, Nasdaq slips 0.12%July 14 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Dow futures rose on Friday as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo commenced second-quarter earnings for big U.S. banks on a strong note. UnitedHealth Group (UNH.N) gained 3.6% after the health insurer reported a quarterly profit above analysts' estimates, as the industry bellwether's expenses came in lower than feared. Overall earnings for the S&P 500 constituents are seen dropping 6.4% in the second quarter, according to Refinitiv data released at the start of the earnings season. The earnings are expected to feed into a strong rally in recent days. ET, Dow e-minis were up 114 points, or 0.33%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.12%.

Persons: Wells, Dow, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Christopher Waller, bullish, Morgan, Johann M Cherian, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock, Federal, of Michigan, Dow e, Microsoft, UBS, Activision, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ The US economy is doing way better than the rest of the rich world
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US is performing much better than many other wealthy nations when comparing economic growth and inflation rates. The US had the highest GDP growth since the start of the pandemic among the G7 countries, an informal group of industrialized democracies. Even when taking out food and energy prices, which were especially elevated in Europe due to the invasion of Ukraine, the US came in below the other G7 countries. Despite this data, "inflation going forward remains considerably uncertain across all G7 nations, including the US," the CEA wrote. But despite the US's outperformance on GDP and inflation, many Americans are still worried about the nation's economy.

Persons: —, Joanne Hsu, Hsu Organizations: US, Service, OECD, Commerce Department, White House Council of Economic Advisors, Index, CEA, University of Michigan, Consumers Locations: Canada, Italy, Germany, Japan, Europe, Ukraine

☆ Despite recent good news, many on Wall Street still see a recession coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Despite some recent positive signs for the U.S. economy, the Wall Street consensus is holding out belief that a recession is lurking. Still, LPL doesn't see "another 2008" even though "investors should anticipate some volatility as the economic outlook remains cloudy." However, Wall Street persists in worries that the central bank will not be able to engineer its hoped-for soft landing. "Optimism around a soft landing [is] growing with the rally in equities and strong labor market," Horneman said. "We believe the chance of a soft landing is unlikely."

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Lawrence Gillum, Roach, Gillum, LPL, BlackRock, DBRS Morningstar, Michael Heydt, Jerome Powell, Megan Horneman, Horneman Organizations: LPL, Fed, of Michigan, Atlanta, Wall, Investment, BlackRock, ECB, Wednesday, Financial Services Committee, Verdence Capital Advisors Locations: U.S

☆ US consumers' near-term inflation expectations hit two-year low; sentiment rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Consumer sentiment index rises to 63.9 in June from 59.2One-year inflation expectations drop to 3.3% from 4.2%Long-run inflation expectations dip to 3.0% from 3.1%WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' near-term inflation expectations dropped to more than a two-year low in June and the outlook over the next five years improved slightly, according to a survey on Friday that also showed sentiment perking up. "The Fed will be gratified that the surge in inflation expectations in the late-1970s and early 1980s has not been repeated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. The University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% this month, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.2% in May. The survey's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at a four-month high of 63.9 in June compared with 59.2 in May. Its measure of consumer expectations rose to 61.3 from 55.4 last month.

Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Joanne Hsu, Robert Frick, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Organizations: University of Michigan's, Fed, Wednesday, Brean, The University of Michigan, Treasury, Reuters, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Washington, Vienna , Virginia

☆ Morning Bid: The UK consumer is feeling the heat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanIt's not just the heatwave. UK consumers are paying through their noses for fish and chips too, and Friday brings the next quarterly survey of their views on inflation and rates. As Britain contends with one of the highest inflation rates among major advanced economies, the BOE seems set to hike rates a lot more. The stock has soared 17% this year, but pared some gains as grocers across Europe cap some prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks in Oslo, NorwayEarnings/updates: Tesco (TSCO.L)Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan It's, BOE, Bullard, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Tesco, Asda, June University of Michigan, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Vidya, gilts, Europe, Brussels, Italy, Oslo, Norway

And an increase in underlying core inflation to 4.7%, up from a 4.6% pace in March, underscored the less-than-steady progress on the Fed's inflation fight. In March Mester had already expected the Fed to raise the policy rate beyond its current 5.00%-5.25% range. Fed policymakers also say they are watching credit conditions closely, though Mester on Friday said that so far she's not seeing worrisome "extra" tightening from the recent regional bank failures. Odds in futures markets are running three to one in favor of a rate hike by then. Other Fed policymakers have echoed that hawkish call.

☆ Why is the US dollar so strong again?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - If investors agree on one thing this year, it's that the dollar is going to fall. The go-to explanation of currency strategists right now is the debt-ceiling debacle is boosting the dollar. Traders currently expect the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sharply later this year as a recession takes hold, yet Tan is skeptical. If the dollar rises slightly, some traders may be forced to close out their short positions by buying the dollar, which then boosts its value. But a simple technical indicator is that it is very atypical for you to have a straight-line decline in the dollar."

The greenback took an early dive after data showed the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index plunged to -31.8 this month from a reading of 10.8 in April. "The things that have weighed on the dollar recently have not gone away, such as the debt ceiling, even though there has been some progress made." In late morning trading the dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against six major peers, fell 0.2% to 102.48. Analysts have said many factors could be behind the dollar's recent strength, including concerns about U.S. inflation and safe-haven buying driven by fears about the debt ceiling standoff and global economic growth. It earlier jumped to 19.7 for the first time since March 10, when it hit a record high of 19.8 on a volatile trading day.

SINGAPORE, May 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell slightly from a five-week high on Monday after a period of strength that has confused analysts. The euro was up 0.27% against the dollar on Monday at $1.088, rebounding after falling 1.54% the previous week. That helped send the dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, down 0.19% to 102.49. Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said a pick-up in U.S. bond yields over the last two days had supported the currency. "If you remove the uncertainty around the debt ceiling situation, the sentiment has been turning bearish against the dollar," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

☆ Dollar notches biggest weekly rise since February
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar rose against the euro and sterling on Friday, and notched its biggest weekly gain since February, as investors shifted to safe havens after consumer sentiment data fueled concern about the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy. A University of Michigan survey on Friday showed May U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to a six-month low on worries that political dispute over raising the federal government's borrowing cap could trigger a recession. "Rate differentials are continuing to tilt in the dollar's favor," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist of Corpay in Toronto. Recent data showing a slowing economy has boosted the case that the Fed will pause hiking rates at its June meeting. That left the dollar index up 0.63% at 102.70, notching a weekly gain of 1.4% — its biggest weekly rise since February.

☆ US consumer sentiment deteriorates in March, inflation expectations retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummarySummary Companies Consumer sentiment slips in MarchInflation expectations easeManufacturing production edges up 0.1% in FebruaryWASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, but households expected inflation to subside over the next year and beyond, which could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it confronts financial market instability. The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.4, down from 67 in the prior month. While the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, economists expect tighter financial conditions will undercut consumption and push the economy into recession. A separate report from the Conference Board showed its Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, dropped for an 11th straight month in February. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%.

☆ Morning Bid: Support for troubled banks calms markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Asian stock markets clawed back 1.7% after after a 2.7% fall to more than three month lows since Monday. What seems to have changed is the guidance for rate hikes though many policymakers had suggested in recent weeks that sizeable increases were warranted. On Friday, final CPI data for the eurozone is due in a thin calendar for economic data releases. Citing people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg News reported that UBS Group and Credit Suisse are opposed to a forced merger. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:Europe economic data: Eurozone final Feb CPI, Q4 labour costsU.S. economic data: University of Michigan surveyReporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar hangs near 5-week high as inflation data looms; yen slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The yen slipped with the government set to nominate a candidate who backs the current policy settings as the new Bank of Japan governor on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars eased with Asian equities on worries that higher U.S. rates will choke growth. Ahead of Tuesday's CPI report, revisions to the previous data set showed consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Separately, the University of Michigan surveys showed a one-year inflation outlook of 4.2%, higher than the final number in January. The U.S. currency gained 0.18% to 131.63 yen , although well within the range of the past week of 129.80 to 132.90.

☆ U.S. consumer sentiment improves; inflation expectations rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Its gauge of consumer expectations dipped to 62.3 from a reading of 62.7 last month, likely reflecting lingering recession fears. Rising sentiment also suggested that the sharp declines in retail sales in November and December were a fluke. Data next week is expected to show retail sales rebounding 1.5% in January after tumbling 1.1% in December, according to a Reuters survey of economists. UMichThe University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations increased to 4.2% this month from 3.9% in January. The increase in near-term inflation expectations likely reflected a recent rise in gasoline prices.

☆ U.S. consumer inflation expectations fall in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said the one-year inflation outlook slipped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month from 4.4% in December. Inflation is abating as the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes cool demand, and supply chain bottlenecks ease. With inflation subsiding, consumers' spirits are perking up. The University of Michigan's preliminary January reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 64.6, up from 59.7 in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 60.5.

☆ Premaket stocks: Auto sales are falling — but profits are surging. Welcome to the new normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The US auto industry just posted its worst sales in more than a decade — but that’s not necessarily a bad sign for the sector. What’s happening: 2022 was the worst year in more than a decade for the auto industry, largely because manufacturers couldn’t keep up with consumer demand. To put that into historical perspective, auto sales topped 17 million each year between 2015 and 2019, before Covid. But the auto industry saw sky-high profits even as sales plummeted. The auto industry has entered a new era: Less choice, higher prices and larger profit margins.

☆ U.S. consumers' 1-year inflation outlook drops to 18-month low - UMich
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers expect price pressures to moderate notably in the next year, with a benchmark survey on Friday showing their one-year inflation outlook dropping to the lowest in 18 months in December. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said the one-year inflation outlook, released alongside its bi-monthly reading of overall consumer sentiment, fell to 4.4% this month from a final reading of 4.9% in November and from a preliminary 4.6% reading two weeks ago. That was the lowest since June 2021 and was the half-percentage-point drop in near-term inflation expectations from November was the largest since September 2020. At the five-year horizon, the outlook moderated to 2.9% from 3.0% last month and earlier in December. Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Mark PorterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Consumer prices data for November, due Tuesday, will provide fresh clues on the central bank's monetary tightening plans. The S&P 500 declined 0.73% to end the session at 3,934.38 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.70% to 11,004.62 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.90% to 33,476.46 points. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 3.3-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 5 new highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 54 new highs and 213 new lows.

☆ Premarket stocks: Crypto is in crisis. It's not just because of FTX
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The stunning downfall of FTX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, sent shockwaves through the crypto universe last week. Sam Bankman-Fried, the 30-year-old crypto titan and chief executive of FTX, watched billions of his fortune evaporate in a bankruptcy filing that shook the trillion-dollar industry to its core. Those efforts mean capital is drying up – and that’s not just bad for crypto but other asset classes including stocks, too. Cryptocurrencies enjoyed huge injections of money during the pandemic era thanks to the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy. “In all, the slowdown in global money growth looks set to continue over the coming year, with some contraction looking likely in the US,” wrote JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a note.

☆ These 33 stocks will benefit the most as inflation finally starts to fall, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Both the economy and inflation are set to fall off a cliff, according to the top strategists at UBS. Inflation, which is finally starting to fall as the global economy softens, will drastically decline from here, according to UBS. Lower inflation will be a relief for many companies, but it will especially benefit those stocks in three sectors, according to UBS: communication services, healthcare, and information technology. Communication services and healthcare stocks have outperformed when inflation declines and have shown the least sensitivity to changes in price growth, Kapteyn wrote. 33 stocks that will benefit from lower inflationIn light of these predictions, UBS created a quantitative screen to determine which stocks would fare best as inflation drops.

☆ Americans are feeling worse about the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —Consumers were feeling slightly worse about the US economy in November, amid punishing rate hikes and decades-high inflation, according to a closely followed University of Michigan survey released Friday. The preliminary index reading from the monthly Surveys of Consumers showed sentiment fell to 54.7, from 59.9 in October. The survey showed that sentiment slumped both for current economic conditions as well as for those in the near future. The survey also showed that consumers’ inflation expectations for this year and five years out remained relatively unchanged. Final sentiment data for this month will be released Nov. 23.

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