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☆ Morgan Stanley outlines the best-case scenario for stocks in the 4th quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley is now looking ahead at the perfect mixture of conditions for a strong fourth quarter. The firm is squarely focused on an improvement in the labor market driving the best possible returns. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve nailed the rate-cut scenario that Morgan Stanley called its best-case result leading into the decision. Heading into last week's announcement, Morgan Stanley was looking for a 50-basis-point cut that didn't also stoke worries about unnecessary growth. To be sure, job conditions are not the only thing Morgan Stanley is watching.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, —, didn't, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Federal, Service, Reserve, stoke, Bank of America, Conference Board

☆ How stocks can roar by 10% into year-end, Citi US equity-trading head says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could jump as much as 10% by the year-end, Citi's stock-trading strategy head said. He said the economy only needs to avoid a recession, which will ultimately depend on the labor market. And that is now a plausible scenario," the firm's head of US equity-trading strategy told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. If this is achieved, stocks can surge another 5% to 10% by the end of this year, Kaiser said. But though the Fed emphasized that it was not forecasting a looming downturn during its latest policy meeting, it all hinges on incoming labor market data, he noted.

Persons: Stuart Kaiser, —, Citi's Stuart Kaiser, Kaiser, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Park your cash in these 3 places to get higher yields than money-market funds as interest rates fall, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

3 trades for falling interest ratesFor investors concerned about the yield on their cash, one solution might be ultrashort bond funds. In the last 12 months, ultrashort bond funds have materially outperformed taxable money market funds, returning an average of 6.36% compared to 5.09% for money markets, according to Morningstar. McCarthy recommends investing in a mix of ultrashort securities such as investment-grade corporates, asset-backed securities, and government securities for diversification purposes. AdvertisementThe Nuveen Ultrashort Income ETF (NUSB) and the Goldman Sachs Access Ultrashort Bond ETF (GSST) are examples of ultrashort bond funds. Investors can gain exposure to premium income funds through the SPDR SSGA US Equity Premium Income ETF (SPIN) and JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPI).

Persons: —, Scott Diamond, Brendan McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Morningstar, McCarthy, Diamond Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Equity, Business, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bond, Bond ETF, JPMorgan Ultrashort, Investors, JPMorgan Equity Locations: Treasurys

☆ These 9 'Back to the USA' stocks will get the biggest boost from an American manufacturing boom: Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. He believes that the rise of the US trade deficit over the past year will likely make it a key issue for both political parties. AdvertisementAlthough the Trump administration has traditionally been linked to trade wars and more protectionist measures, Biden's administration maintained the Chinese tariffs. It will create more manufacturing jobs and boost demand for domestic companies with in the logistics and supply chain process. A September 19 research note from Bank of America suggests that this shift is set to benefit domestic small- and mid-cap stocks most.

Persons: —, Trump, Manish Kabra, Kabra, Jill Carey Hall Organizations: Service, Business, US, of, Tax, Bank of America Locations: China, Red

☆ Investors are pouring into this defensive corner of the stock market amid fears of an economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Analysts are increasingly recommending defensive stocks to blunt the impact of an economic slowdown. The S&P 500's consumer staples sector has risen more than 4% in the last month. AdvertisementAmid fears of a recession and increased market volatility, analysts have been pointing to defensive stocks as a safe bet to hedge macro risk. Among defensive sectors — which include things like real estate and financials — investors recently have been pouring into consumer staples in particular. With the Federal Reserve likely to finally cut rates at its meeting this week, defensive stocks could be poised for further growth.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: Service, Retailers, Walmart, Target, Bank of America, P Global Semiconductor, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Locations: cyclicals

☆ Trump and Harris are both fans of solar power. That's good news for these 4 stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

During the recent debate, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump expressed their support for solar energy. Trump said he was a "big fan" of solar power, and Harris doubled down on her support for clean energy. Trump caveated his support of solar power, saying that solar plants take up "400, 500 acres of desert soil." AdvertisementInvesting in solarFor investors interested in increasing their exposure to solar energy solutions, Baker shares the following 4 investments. These companies provide solar power offerings across the entire renewable energy value chain.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, Graeme Baker, Baker, David Bianco, she'll, Biden, He's Organizations: Service, Business, Environment, Big Tech, Microsoft, Green, Deal, Environment Fund

☆ 'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The AI boom is still in its infancy, following the path of the internet in the 1990s, BofA said. AI's impact will be felt sooner than past tech booms, the bank says. Skepticism about AI has mounted recently as investors get impatient to see AI returns. "Skeptics declare that GenAI's revenue potential doesn't justify the current level of AI infrastructure investment," the report says. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said the AI investment theme has been "overcooked," and suggested investors should retreat into defensive stocks.

Persons: BofA, —, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, ChatGPT

☆ The AI theme is 'overcooked' and investors should take shelter in quality defensive stocks, Morgan Stanley's CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the meantime, they should take shelter in quality defensive stocks, Morgan Stanley says. We just got overcooked on the whole AI theme," Wilson said. AdvertisementWith the AI rally fading for now, Wilson says investors are waiting for a new theme to emerge, and taking shelter in "quality defensive stocks" in the meantime. "In our view, a slowing labor market is consistent with a late cycle backdrop and quality + defensive leadership," Wilson wrote. AdvertisementLast month, Wilson's team added three new quality defensive stocks to its "Fresh Money Buy List," which now totals nine stocks.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, —, they're, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Morgan, We're Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Surveillance, Nvidia, Semiconductor

☆ This volatility-resistant area of the stock market is ripe for outperformance after two decades of decline, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, one area of the market is set to benefit from increased market volatility: quality stocks, or stocks with strong business models and financial fundamentals. And the cherry on top is that quality stocks — which typically become expensive during downturns — are still cheap despite their recent rally, coming out of a two-decade rut. As seen in the graph below, the high-quality factor serves as a hedge against elevated market volatility. Bank of AmericaQuality is still cheapLuckily for investors, this safe-haven area of the stock market is trading at an attractive valuation. Bank of AmericaWhile quality stocks have recently re-rated to a slight premium, they're still reasonably priced, according to Bank of America.

Persons: —, Subramanian, Financials, Schwab Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PMI, Investors, of, Companies, Equity Locations: of America's

☆ Why the S&P 500 could drop by 10% by the end of 2024 — and 4 trades to cash in on the turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewDon't expect the stock market's seemingly unstoppable rally to continue through the end of the year, says Stifel's Barry Bannister. "If Russia makes a countermove in Kursk, it would probably be between the election and January," Bannister said. 4 trades to make amid market turbulenceWith the market poised for a turbulent period ahead, Bannister said he prefers defensive value stocks, particularly the healthcare, utilities, consumer staples, and real estate sectors. "Seventy percent of all the outperformance of defensive or value occurs before a recession is actually declared," Bannister said.

Persons: —, Stifel's Barry Bannister, Bannister, — Bannister, there's, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Utilities, Consumer, UCITS Locations: Russia, Kursk, Iran, China

☆ 45 unfairly punished stocks primed for a revival: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

During the sell-off, strategists at Goldman Sachs recommended buying the dip in US stocks, albeit carefully, as they reiterated their year-end S&P 500 price target of 5,600. Economically sensitive stocks have lagged defensives by at least 5 percentage points in a single week 12 times since 2000, according to Goldman Sachs. "Despite the weak jobs report, our economists believe continued economic expansion is far more likely than recession," Kostin wrote. Goldman Sachs found that those micro factors explained 86% of stock returns in the first half of 2024, versus the long-term average of 57%. Fewer worries about the near-term economic outlook mean stocks will no longer trade in lockstep — a win for active investors.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, abate, lockstep — Organizations: Service, Goldman, Business, Institute of Supply, Walmart Locations: Japan, lockstep, Monday's

☆ S&P 500 may struggle in the next two months, according to history of past volatility spikes
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America found that the S & P 500 typically is lower two months after the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spikes above 45. In the eight weeks after such a volatility surge, the S & P 500 is higher only 40% of the time and loses 0.72% on a median basis, BofA data shows. Typically, the broad market index gains 66% of the time and advances 1.95% on a median basis. Roughly three months after a Vix spike, the broad market index is higher 80% of the time, gaining 5.17% on a median basis, per BofA. One year later, the S & P 500 is up 80% of the time, rallying 18.18% on a median basis.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, it's Organizations: Bank of America Securities . Bank of America, BofA Securities

☆ 'Babies tossed out with the bath water': Why top strategists aren't scared during the wildest market since March 2020
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesWhile those concerns served as the kindling, it was the July jobs report that sparked terror. A closer look at the jobs report reveals that while job additions underwhelmed, jobless claims were also minimal. AdvertisementSecond-quarter earnings growth has been impressive so far and seems set to rise by low single digits, according to UBS GWM. The bullish strategy chief remarked in a note Monday that six of the 11 market sectors have enjoyed double-digit earnings growth this quarter, while only three have seen declines. "Such sell-offs can offer an opportunity to 'catch babies tossed out with the bath water,'" Stoltzfus wrote.

Persons: —, Oppenheimer, Jonathan Golub, Oppenheimer Jason Draho, Americas Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Beryl, Draho, That's, David Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Business, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Labor, UBS GWM Locations: Americas

☆ Investors are fleeing Big Tech. Bank of America says to take advantage of these 2 stock trades instead.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewBuying and holding Big Tech stocks has led to great performance in recent years, but this might not be the case going forward. As a result, buy-and-hold investors are probably seeing more red than they'd like in their portfolios right now. AdvertisementBig Tech overexposureIf you hold a lot of Big Tech stocks in your portfolio, you're not alone. Related storiesThere's definitely reason to be bullish on tech overall, especially as AI spurs growth, but overexposure to Big Tech isn't without its drawbacks. According to Subramanian, there's more room for Big Tech to fall, especially if investors don't see AI monetization cases soon.

Persons: —, Savita Subramanian, overexposure, Subramanian, That's, there's, They're Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Down, Dow, Business, Bank of America, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Fund, Vanguard, Energy

☆ How hedge funds are dealing with the global market meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The VIX, Wall Street's go-to snapshot of market volatility, is at its highest point since the onset of the pandemic. And hedge funds are sifting through the wreckage, with some looking to survive and others planning to pounce. In any market meltdown, there are clear winners and losers given the strategies and positioning of different firms. The yen carry trade has also likely wrong-footed many macro funds, several industry veterans said. It also slowed dealmaking, annoying private equity investors whose capital was tied up in older vintage funds.

Persons: —, Wall Street's, there's, allocators, Harvey Schwartz, Carlyle Organizations: Service, Business, Citadel, Eisler Capital, Universa Investments Locations: Europe, Asia, New York, London

☆ The end of the 'carry trade'? How Japan's yen could be ripping through U.S. stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are experiencing a broad slump, with many market participants caught off guard by the speed of the yen's rally. The Japanese national flag is seen at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in Tokyo on July 31, 2024. 'An implosion of the carry trade'U.S. stocks kicked off the month sharply lower, as fresh data prompted fears of a worsening economic outlook. "First of all, the hawkish Bank of Japan caused an implosion of the carry trade over a short-term basis. And all of that helps push equity markets, which had been quite expensive, even lower," he continued.

Persons: Nogi, Russell Napier, Napier, Cedric Chehab, Chehab, CNBC's Organizations: Afp, Getty, U.S ., U.S, Bank of Japan, The Bank of Japan, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, BMI, hawkish Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, China, Japan, U.S

☆ 'You have to be invested': 6 hot stocks to buy as US markets rebound to record highs by Labor Day
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In a little over a week, the index sank from near 5,670 to under 5,400 as the mega-cap tech stocks that drove the market higher suddenly sold off. Advertisement"You have to get involved in stocks; you have to be invested in the US equity market," Salama told Business Insider. However, the trader isn't abandoning his bullish view on mega-cap tech stocks. AdvertisementStoltzfus agrees that the market's favorite stocks, including those tied to artificial intelligence, aren't wildly overvalued, as some bears have argued.

Persons: —, John Salama, he's, Salama, There's, John Stoltzfus, who's, Stoltzfus, I've, Trump, Biden, Harris, Parris, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Labor, Oppenheimer Asset Management, House, Shmump, Dell Technologies

☆ Why investors should buy industrial stocks now as a valuable market driver deteriorates, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Earnings-revision breadth, cited as a bullish market driver, has deteriorated, Morgan Stanley says. But industrial stocks are still uniquely positioned to outperform, the firm says. AdvertisementA key driver of stock-market bullishness is deteriorating, although there are still opportunities available, Morgan Stanley wrote in new research. The firm is referring to earnings-revision breadth, which enjoyed an increase that coincided with a rally in small-cap stocks in recent weeks. The chart below shows a deceleration in earnings-revision breadth for S&P 500 companies in recent months:Morgan Stanley"This does not offer support for a broad cyclical rotation," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Mike Wilson, Industrials Organizations: Companies, Service, CIO

☆ 3 reasons to invest in America's crumbling infrastructure instead of flashy AI winners, and the 2 cheapest sectors right now: BofA
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Traditional infrastructure might not seem as sexy as the newer AI data centers, but Bank of America believes traditional infrastructure has stronger growth prospects than AI infrastructure. The heavy focus on technology and AI has resulted in investors overlooking traditional infrastructure investment. Invest in industrials and materialsIn particular, Bank of America identified the industrials and materials sectors as the best investment opportunity within traditional infrastructure. The industrials sector trades at a relative forward PE of 0.98, and materials trades at 0.92. AdvertisementSome specific industries within those sectors are especially undervalued, such as construction materials and metals & mining.

Persons: —, there's, Savita Subramanian, it's, Reshoring Organizations: Service, Big Tech, American Society of Civil Engineers, Business, Bank of, Bank of America Government, Bank of America, Bank, Invest, Industrial Locations: North America, industrials

☆ Barclays raises S&P 500 target to 5,600, sees strong tech earnings ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Venu Krishna raised his 2024 S & P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,300. The S & P 500 has already rallied more than 16% year to date, reaching record levels and blowing past many Wall Street estimates. Investors have piled into tech stocks this year amid expectations that artificial intelligence would bolster corporate profits. The S & P 500 tech sector is up 29% in 2024, with AI-related stocks Nvidia and Super Micro Computer more than doubling. Barclays also set its 2025 S & P 500 target at 6,500.

Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna Organizations: Barclays, CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Monday's

☆ Goldman says this investment is seen as a potential Trump trade and it's jumping Monday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Russell 2000 gained 6% last week, its best week of the year, and looks poised to rally further on Monday. A cool consumer price index report last week was seen as a major catalyst for small caps, as it suggested interest rates could go lower. "Many investors view small caps as a potential 'Trump trade,' but the path for small cap outperformance is a narrow one," the note said. Kostin said that small caps outperformed after Trump's 2016 election, but that was when interest rates were much lower. The Goldman note was published before the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday.

Persons: Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Russell, David Kostin, Joe Biden, PredictIt, Kostin, Trump, Goldman Organizations: Republican, Trump

☆ 14 stocks to buy for at least 25% earnings growth in 2025 while the stunning market rally stalls, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The most bullish year-end target for the S&P 500 was 5,100, which represented solid upside of about 7% from where it ended the year. Those predictions look paltry in hindsight, as the S&P 500 finished the first half of the year up 14.5% at 5,460. Bulls are getting bolder, but risks remainIn response, several major firms have boosted their year-end S&P 500 targets in recent months. AdvertisementGoldman Sachs recently shared earnings growth projections for the 100 biggest stocks in the S&P 500, both for this year and next. Below are those 14 large-cap stocks expected to grow earnings by at least 25% next year, along with each one's ticker, market capitalization, and 2024 and 2025 earnings growth estimates.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Service, Business, Bulls, BMO Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia —

The next round of filings for spot ether ETFs with the SEC is due today, part of the ongoing regulatory process required before spot ether ETFs can be launched. One thing's for sure: the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs this year has been a success. That's still true for this year, but two of the top 10 ETF inflows year to date have been into spot bitcoin ETFs: iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at number four, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC) at number eight. Would 50% of the inflows of the spot bitcoin ETF be a win? We'll talk about this with Matt Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management, one of the applicants for a spot ether ETF.

Persons: That's, iShares, Matt Hougan, Matt, Nate Geraci Organizations: SEC, Nasdaq, Fidelity, Bitcoin, Stock, Aggregate, Blackrock US, Bitwise Asset Management, Edge

☆ Stocks are likely to see a 10% correction as earnings weaken and election uncertainty swirls, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks are likely to drop around 10% between now and the November election, Morgan Stanley predicted. That's because corporate earnings look weak and need several catalysts to improve, the bank's Mike Wilson said. Other forecasters have sounded the alarm for a soon-to-come correction as stocks look overvalued. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks are poised to see a double-digit drop, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.

Persons: Stocks, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, —, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, That's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business

☆ Goldman Sachs: 89 stocks expected to be winners as they build out AI infrastructure
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks within the adoption frameworkWhile there could be a few angles one might use to determine where a company fits within AI's development, Goldman Sachs created their version of AI's adoption phases. Additional early winners of AI were mega-cap technology names that had steep earnings growth and attracted a lot of investors. Throughout 2023, there was a 53% gap in annual earnings growth between the top five AI names and the rest of the S&P 500. But as we enter 2025, Goldman estimates that the earnings growth between the big five and the rest of the market will tighten. The graph below demonstrates Goldman's forecast of a slowdown in earnings growth from the concentrated names and a modest pickup for the broader market.

Persons: —, It's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Service, Business, Chief US, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Management

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