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Dollar rises ahead of Jackson Hole, Turkish lira rallies
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday as investors awaited for U.S. job data ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, while the Turkish lira rallied after a larger-than-expected central bank rate hike. Investors were cautious after softer-than expected data in Europe and the U.S. muddied the economic outlook sending the safe-haven dollar higher. "As the Jackson Hole symposium gets under way, market participants are looking for direction," said Isabel Albarran, Investment Officer at Close Brothers Asset Management. MORE COULD COMEElsewhere, the Turkish lira rallied, up 3% to 26.4040 against the dollar after the Turkish Central Bank hiked the 1-week repo from 17.5% to a much-larger-than expected 25%. Turkey's central bank embarked on a tightening cycle in June after President Tayyip Erdogan appointed former Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as governor.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Jerome Powell, Isabel Albarran, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Piotr Matys, Moh Siong Sim, China's, Joice Alves, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Turkish, U.S, Investors, Investment, Asset Management, Turkish Central Bank, Wall Street, Touch Capital, British, Bank of England, PMI, Singapore, Thomson Locations: Europe, London
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 23, 2023. U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Wednesday and shares of Nvidia jumped nearly 10% in trading after the bell, hitting an all-time high. EASING YIELDSGovernment bond yields eased, adding to a sense of relief across markets. Euro zone yields hit multi-week lows with Germany's 10-year yield 1.5 bps lower at 2.50%, having touched a 2-week low of 2.448%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 1.5% higher, also lifted by Nvidia's bullish outlook.
Persons: Chipmakers, Jerome Powell, Robert Alster, Zhang Zihua, Tom Wilson, Julie Zhu, Toby Chopra, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Federal, Asset Management, Nvidia, Beijing Yunyi Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Turkish, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Beijing, London, Hong Kong
Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates to 25 percent from 17.5 percent on Thursday, a big jump that underscored a shift by the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, toward a more orthodox monetary policy to control inflation that exceeded an annual rate of 80 percent last year. The size of the increase, which put the benchmark rate at its highest level since 2004, was bigger than expected, exceeding forecasts from financial analysts, who had predicted a more modest jump after July’s 2.5 percent rise. After the announcement, the Turkish lira quickly rallied, briefly rising more than 7 percent against the U.S. dollar. It was trading at 25.6 per dollar by early evening in Turkey. In a statement, the Turkish central bank said it had “decided to continue the monetary tightening process in order to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor inflation expectations, and to control the deterioration in pricing behavior.”
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Organizations: U.S . Locations: Turkish, Turkey
VIEW Turkey cements policy shift with super-sized rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. "We should recall that sudden changes in interest rates usually have a delayed effect. "This was also the steepest rate hike since the CBT management reshuffle after the elections in May. We think the strong rate hike meant to address market concerns that the CBT wanted to avoid significant rate hike." TIMOTHY ASH, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON"Really solid move by the CBRT (central bank) to hike policy rates arguably above expectations by 750bps to 25%."
Persons: Cagla, GRZEGORZ DROZDZ, TIMOTHY ASH, 750bps, Hatice Karahan, Hatice Gaye, PIOTR MATYS, Governor Erkan, Erdogan, LIAM PEACH, Erkan, OZKARDESKAYA, SWISSQUOTE Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkish, EMERGINGMARKETWATCH.COM, SOFIA, GENEVA
Exterior of the Turkish Central Bank, known as Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi in Ankara. In volatile trade after the announcement, the embattled Turkish lira gained ground against the U.S. dollar and euro. Ongoing firm inflation rates pushed the central bank to recently revise its inflation forecast for the year-end from 22.3% to 58%. On Thursday, the bank said it expected year-end inflation to sit in the "upper bound of the forecast range." The central bank on Thursday attributed the ongoing stickiness of national inflation to strong domestic demand, wage pressures, exchange rates, persistent services inflation and tax regulations.
Organizations: Turkish Central Bank, Reuters, Turkish, U.S . Locations: Ankara, Turkey's, London, Turkish
Turkey begins rolling back costly FX-protected deposits
  + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In a reversal, the central bank now wants lenders to set a new goal of transitioning KKM accounts into regular lira accounts, in part by dissuading companies and individuals from renewing the KKM accounts. According to a separate decree in the Official Gazette, the central bank also raised lenders' reserve requirement ratios for FX deposits, further nudging customers into regular lira accounts. KKM accounts have since ballooned to some $117 billion, or 3.1 trillion lira, around a quarter of total bank deposits. To cover KKM depreciation costs, the central bank paid an estimated 300 billion lira ($11 billion) in June and July, when the lira plunged again. The central bank said the KKM move would "enforce macro financial stability by supporting lira deposits" and pledged more such steps.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Tayyip Erdogan's, Erdogan, Hakan Kara, Jonathan Spicer, Azra, Deepa Babington, Frances Kerry Organizations: Turkish Lira, REUTERS, Rights, Official Gazette, Bilkent University, Ece Toksabay, Thomson Locations: Turkish, Rights ANKARA
In Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, Demand for Gold and Dollars SoarsPeople are pouring money into assets that they see as a safer bet than the Turkish lira, which has declined by more than 80% in the past five years.
Russia’s central bank raised interest rates last month but it wasn’t enough to stop a slide in the ruble. Photo: Sergei Bobylev/Zuma PressThe ruble’s decline picked up pace in recent weeks, and on Monday the currency fell below 100 to the U.S. dollar for the first time since the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine. So far this year, the ruble has lost almost 30% of its value against the dollar. Only a handful of currencies including the Turkish lira, Nigerian naira and Argentine peso are having a worse year.
Persons: Sergei Bobylev Organizations: Zuma, U.S, Argentine Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Investors ploughed $73.17 billion into money market funds in their biggest weekly net purchase since March 22, data from Refinitiv Lipper showed. U.S. money market funds attracted a net $40.88 billion in inflows while in Europe and Asia net inflows stood at $23.4 billion and $13.15 billion, respectively. Higher-risk equity funds suffered $11.71 billion worth of net selling, the biggest weekly outflow since June 21. Global corporate bond funds drew about $1.16 billion and government bond funds a net $2.71 billion, the biggest amount since July 12. Meanwhile, bond funds faced their biggest weekly net outflow in nine months at a net $1.74 billion.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lipper, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters Graphics, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Global, Thomson Locations: Saudi, China, Europe, Asia, Bengaluru
The Spanish bank also announced a 1 billion euro share buy-back programme. It follows a smaller additional share buy-back earlier this year and a 3.2 billion euro programme it completed in 2022. In the case of Caixabank, the new buy-back programme follows a 1.8 billion euros share buy-back in 2022. In Mexico, the bank's net profit rose 32% while net interest income climbed 38%. In Spain, net profit more than tripled versus a year earlier while NII was up 51%.
Persons: BBVA's, Jefferies, NII, Jesús Aguado, Emma Pinedo, Inti Landauro, Jason Neely, Robert Birsel Organizations: BBVA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MADRID, Mexico, Spain, Turkey, Caixabank, Turkish
"There is a huge gap between rates and inflation, but investors still have faith in this policy shift," Peach said. "They will tolerate a gradual tightening cycle if the key rate rises towards 30% at the end of the year." International bonds are still widely held by foreign investors, though much less so the domestic ones exposed to the lira currency's wild swings. BETTER BUFFERSRising central bank reserves are another positive sign. JPMorgan raised its inflation outlook for Turkey after the rate hike, now expecting year-end inflation at 57% versus 50% previously.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Nick Eisinger, Liam Peach, Peach, Paul McNamara, Emre Akcakmak, It's, Cagri Kutman, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, John Stonestreet Organizations: LONDON, Vanguard, Capital Economics, GAM Investments, Net, East Capital, JPMorgan, United Arab, KNG Securities, Thomson Locations: Turkey, London, United Arab Emirates, Rosario
CNBC Daily Open: Tech stocks were battered
  + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Elon Musk, CEO, CTO, founderElon Musk is CEO of Tesla and SpaceX; CTO of Twitter; founder of Neuralink, The Boring Company and now xAI. Tesla may have reported record revenue for its second quarter and beaten Wall Street's expectations for both profit and revenue. But Wall Street isn't completely cheering the electric vehicle maker because of its shrinking margins.
Persons: Dow, Tesla, Elon Musk, Timothy Ash Organizations: CNBC, Dow outperforms, Netflix, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company, Chicago Board of Trade, Initiative, Agriculture, BlueBay Asset Management, Tesla Locations: Dow outperforms U.S
Turkey's Taksim Square, with the figure of Kemal Ataturk, the first president, and the Turkish flag in the background. Turkey's central bank on Thursday hiked its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 17.5%, coming in below analyst forecasts of 500 basis points as the country's monetary policymakers embark on a long and painful mission to tackle double-digit inflation. "Monetary tightening will be further strengthened as much as needed in a timely and gradual manner until a significant improvement in the inflation outlook is achieved," the bank said in a statement, following its interest rate decision. In its statement Thursday, the central bank reiterated its aim to get inflation down to 5% in the medium term — which many economists see as unrealistic at this rate. Traditional economic orthodoxy holds that rates must be raised to cool inflation, but Erdogan — a self-declared "enemy" of interest rates who calls the tool "the mother of all evil" — vocally espoused a strategy of lowering rates instead.
Persons: Turkey's, Kemal Ataturk, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan —, Organizations: Turkish Locations: Turkey
The lira hit a record low of 26.9 against the U.S. currency, sliding from Monday's close of 26.3505. The central bank will announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday. "News saying that the central bank's interest rate hike will be below market expectations is triggering the lira depreciation," said one trader. But June's hike was below expectations, with economists saying Erdogan's influence over the central bank limits how far they can go in tightening policy. Turkey's annual inflation surged to a 24-year high of 85.51% last October, mainly due to lira depreciation because of Erdogan's policy of low rates.
Persons: Abdulkadir Selvi, Tayyip Erdogan, Nevzat Devranoglu, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: Hurriyet, Ece Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL
Turkish lira briefly touches new record low
  + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
ISTANBUL, June 27 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira touched a record low of 26.10 against the dollar early on Tuesday during low liquidity hours, after an official and bankers said the central bank had stopped using its reserves to support the currency. The lira had firmed slightly by 0437 GMT, standing at 26.05, unchanged from its closing level on Monday. It has weakened more than 28% so far this year, largely after the re-election in late May of President Tayyip Erdogan, who has since moved to backtrack on his years of unorthodox economic policy. Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Ali Kucukgocmen, Kim Coghill Organizations: Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, backtrack
With the use of central bank reserves to protect the lira’s value before the election, reserves fell to a historical low in early June, with net reserves at minus $5.7 billion. Hence, there is no use of foreign exchange reserves and a period of increasing reserves has started," he added. His comments echoed the view of bankers that the central bank had "completely stopped" using its reserves. CENTRAL BANK MEASURESUnder new central bank steps announced at the weekend, the securities maintenance ratio that banks are required to allocate to their foreign currency deposit was reduced to 5% from 10%. The new regulation said banks whose lira deposits are less than 57% of total deposits will have to hold an additional seven percentage points of securities, compared to the previous seven additional points applied to banks that held less than 60% lira deposits.
Persons: Murad Sezer, Lira, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Enver Erkan, Daren Butler, Canan, Jonathan Spicer, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, Securities, Bankers, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ANKARA, backtrack, Turkish
Turkey's lira hits fresh record lows after rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
ISTANBUL, June 23 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira weakened as much as 2.8% to a fresh record low early on Friday, extending losses as the central bank's large rate hike a day earlier, reversing President Tayyip Erdogan's policy, fell short of market expectations. The lira last traded at 25.2015, some 1.3% weaker than Thursday's close. At its weakest point of 25.59 it was nearly 27% weaker against the U.S. currency this year. The move marked a change in course after years of monetary easing in which the one-week repo rate (TRINT=ECI) had been cut to 8.5% from 19% in 2021 in an unorthodox policy pursued despite soaring inflation. Reporting by Can Sezer; Editing by Daren ButlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erdogan, Erkan, Daren Butler Organizations: Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey's
While higher rates are typically supportive of currencies, the risk that they will trigger an economic downturn has pushed some investors to seek safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar. The Turkish lira slid to a record low of 25.589 against the U.S. dollar, after the Turkey's central bank 650 basis points hike to 15% on Thursday missed expectations. In other currencies, the dollar rose broadly and stood near an over seven-month high against the yen at 142.90. The euro slipped 0.04% to $1.0950, while the U.S. dollar rose 0.05% against a basket of six major peers to 102.44. "Most of the Western central banks are now more hawkish than previously projected," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets.
Persons: stoked, Sterling, BoE, Nick Bennenbroek, Jerome Powell, Tina Teng, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S ., Bank of Japan, U.S, Federal, Fed, Swiss National Bank, CMC Markets, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Wells Fargo
The central banks of the UK, Turkey, Norway, and Switzerland all raised interest rates yesterday. The Bank of England is the UK's central bank. Let's start with the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and bring borrowing costs to 5%. Turkey's central bank, meanwhile, raised interest rates by 650 basis points to 15%, which was somehow less than markets expected. Just to cover our bases: Norway's central bank raised its core lending rate by half a percentage point, and Switzerland's policymakers hiked its benchmark rate by a quarter point.
Persons: Phil Rosen, Powell, Myron Jobson, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Spencer Platt, Jerome Powell's, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, it's, Warren Buffett, Jason Ma, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Bank of England, Bank of, Interactive, New York Stock Exchange, U.S . House, Dow, Getty, Apogee Enterprises, Homeowners, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, S3 Partners, BMO Capital Markets, Berkshire Hathaway, Gates Foundation Locations: Manhattan, Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, Maremagnum, Turkey's, New York City, U.S, New York, Los Angeles, London
REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines. "They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course. Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million. "I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.
Persons: Murad Sezer, Thursday's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Viktor Szabo, Abrdn, it's, It's, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Eric Fine, Marek Drimal, Simsek, Dan Wood, William Blair, Fitch, Erdogan, Erkan, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, VanEck
Turkey's Taksim Square, with the figure of Kemal Ataturk, the first president, and the Turkish flag in the background. The Turkish lira sank to new record lows after Turkey's central bank raised the country's benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points in a dramatic monetary policy reversal. The central bank lifted its key interest rate by almost double, from 8.5% to 15% Thursday, marking the country's first hike since March 2021. The lira — which has been extending its plunge since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's reelection — was last trading at 24.97 against the greenback. Newly appointed Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan hinted at more hikes until the inflation situation in the country improves.
Persons: Turkey's, Kemal Ataturk, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's, , Steve Hanke, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan Organizations: Turkish, Johns Hopkins University
Morning Bid: Fragile markets wait on PMIs
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) looks set to snap a 10-week winning streak and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was poised for its worst week of the year, as rates and inflation look higher for longer. The yen earned some reprieve, but it's shaky and at 143 to the dollar is firmly in intervention-watch territory. The Aussie, a growth bellwether, is quickly unwinding a two-week rally and Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are down 3% in three days. The sour turn leaves markets in a delicate spot ahead of global purchasing managers' index surveys due through the day. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Friday:Europe, UK and U.S. PMIsUK Retail SalesReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tom Westbrook, Sterling, Threadneedle, Muralikumar Organizations: Bank of England's, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMIs, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Lira, Europe
SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Asian shares made a tentative start to Thursday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stuck to his recent hawkish tone as investors assess the future rate policy path from the Fed. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday the Fed should not raise rates further or it would risk "needlessly" sapping the strength of the U.S. economy. The comments highlight the growing debate at the central bank over when and if the central bank should hike further. "The BoE's conditional guidance put the burden of proof on the data showing more persistent inflation pressures to continue hiking bank rate. Markets will also be awaiting policy decision from Turkey's central bank, with a policy pivot and a sharp rate increase widely expected.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Australia's, Powell, Kevin Cummins, Raphael Bostic, BoE, Taylor Nugent, Sterling, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Washington, Atlanta, U.S, Turkey's
London CNN —Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates to 15% from 8.5% Thursday in a dramatic reversal of its unorthodox policy of cutting the cost of borrowing to tame painfully high inflation. Annual consumer price inflation has come down from a two-decade high of 85.5% in October but was still almost 40% in May. This is the first rate decision by Turkey’s central bank since last month’s reelection of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan had ordered his central bank to cut rates nine times since late 2021, when inflation around the world started to accelerate, whereas most economies have raised rates. In that time, the value of the Turkish lira has crashed almost 170% to stand at a record low of 23.60 against the US dollar on Thursday.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan, Erdogan —, , Mehmet Simsek, Turkey’s, Merrill Lynch Organizations: London CNN
But the level remains uncertain as the central bank has not given any signals as to its next steps, including the size or pace of potential hikes. Some economists have expressed doubt about Erdogan's commitment to abandoning his unorthodox policy of low rates, which led the central bank to slash its policy rate from 19% in 2021 to 8.5% currently. The median estimate for the policy rate at end-2023 was 30%, with forecasts ranging from 18% to 35%. He named Naci Agbal as central bank governor in Nov. 2020 but, after some sharp rate hikes, replaced him less than five months later. The central bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday.
Persons: Murad Sezer, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Malek Drimal, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Moody's, Naci, Simsek, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, stoke, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ISTANBUL
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