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By contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris's tax plan is expected to increase tax revenues by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, but at a cost of negative 2% to long-run GDP and 786,000 jobs. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania estimates that, including her spending proposals, the primary deficits would increase by $1.2 trillion, and accounting for adverse economic feedback effects, primary deficits increase to $2 trillion. Higher deficits and higher debts, just with different paths to get there. One candidate proposes cutting taxes to improve economic activity but increase deficits, and the other proposes raising taxes and increasing spending by even more and growing deficits. If the deficit keeps increasing faster than our economy grows, so will the debt, inflation, and interest rates.
Persons: We'll, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris's, Harris, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Treasuries Organizations: Tax Foundation, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Medicare, Green New Deal, TLT, Treasury Bond ETF, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: United States, Europe
Investors face diminishing returns from cash alternatives as interest rates decline. Today, cash alternatives are yielding slightly less. Specifically, those who didn't have liquidity needs but chose to sit in cash anyway missed out on a strong year for the S&P 500. If liquidity needs arise, investors may be able to sell for a profit if the Fed's cutting cycle is steeper than expected, he added. Simply put, the M2 money supply, which includes cash and cash alternatives, has skyrocketed since 2020 by over 36%, debasing the dollar.
Persons: , Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, David Miller, Miller, Millers Organizations: Service, Treasury, AAA, Catalyst Funds, Federal, World Gold Council, Investors Locations: Treasuries, Russia, Central
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Plus, they are reacting to Tesla earnings and watching an interesting bond opportunity outside of Treasuries. Worldwide Exchange pick: Starbucks Earlier this week, Starbucks (SBUX) pulled its profit outlook and said sales last quarter tumbled in a release of preliminary results. Opportunity in high yield bonds Joanna Gallegos of BondBloxx said while Treasury yields are higher since the Federal Reserve rate cut in September, she is seeing the best opportunity in high yield bonds. She recommended high yield bond ETFs: BondBloxx CCC Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (XCCC) with a yield above 10% and the BondBloxx BB Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (XBB) with a yield above 6%.
Persons: Tesla, George Gianarikas, Cannaccord Genuity, Matt Powers, Brian Niccol, Joanna Gallegos, BondBloxx, Gallegos Organizations: PRO, Worldwide, Starbucks, Powers Advisory, Federal Locations: Treasuries
The art market is in a correction as big spenders fade
  + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Robert Frank | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
The number of wealthy collectors surveyed who plan to purchase art in the next year fell to 43% from over half in 2023. The median spending on art by wealthy collectors remains stable at around $50,000 a year, according to the survey. Higher interest rates also raised the opportunity cost of buying art, since wealthy collectors could earn an easy 5% or more from cash and Treasuries. Just as in the classic-car market, the art market is going through a generational shift that's created a mismatch between supply and demand. According to the survey, the high end of the art market, or works priced at $10 million or more, was the strongest before 2022.
Persons: Andy Warhol, Jean, Michel Basquiat, Wiktor, Robert Frank, Phillips, Bonhams, Paul Donovan, Xers, they're, Donovan, Gen Xers, Gen Organizations: Art Basel, UBS Survey, UBS Global Wealth Management, Art Basel Miami Beach, Dealers, UBS Locations: London, United Kingdom, Christie's, Sotheby's, New York, East, Ukraine, Europe, China
Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
Dollar steady at August high on U.S. rates view, election
  + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. Four Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support on Monday for further rate cuts, but appeared to differ on how fast or far they believe any cuts should go. With the U.S. election just two weeks away, the rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high. The yen on Tuesday was at 150.57 per dollar, hovering close to the two-and-half-month low of 150.88.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Harris, Komeito Organizations: U.S, Reserve, Fed ., Federal, Traders, Fed, Trump, PineBridge Investments, Liberal Democratic Party Locations: U.S, Treasuries
The analyst raised its price target on Palo Alto Networks to $446 (a new Street high) from $421, Check Point Software to $183 from $170, and Fortinet to $105 from $69 while naming it a top pick. There was no action on recent portfolio addition CrowdStrike because the note's focus was on network security. The Morgan Stanley note reinforces our decision to own both Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike. With Palo Alto Networks, it's a couple of quarters away from the beginning of a product refresh cycle. Arora Nikesh, Palo Alto Networks CEO & Chairman at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on May 23rd, 2022.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Bonds, Morgan, CrowdStrike, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, Lockheed Martin, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Arora Nikesh, Adam Galica Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Palo Alto Networks, Alto, Security, Logitech, Zions Bancorp, GE Aerospace, Verizon, GM, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Treasuries, Palo, Davos, Switzerland
Dollar extends gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans
  + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar extended its gains in early Monday trades in Asia as a holiday in Japan sapped liquidity, leaving China's somewhat disappointing weekend stimulus announcements the focus of market attention. The dollar extended its gains in early Monday trades in Asia as a holiday in Japan sapped liquidity, leaving China's somewhat disappointing weekend stimulus announcements the focus of market attention. "Markets are likely disappointed that China's Finance Ministry did not unveil concrete additional stimulus," said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, in a note. The yuan is down 0.9% against the dollar since Sept. 24, when the People's Bank of China kicked off China's most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic. The yen and euro both fell around 0.3% each, sterling shed 0.4% and the dollar index climbed 0.4%.
Persons: Lan Foan, Richard Franulovich, Christopher Wong, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Finance, China's Finance Ministry, Westpac, People's Bank of China, CSI, Fed, Traders, New Zealand Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Singapore, U.S, United States
Market Navigator: Ways to play treasuries
  + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket Navigator: Ways to play treasuriesManju Boraiah, AllSpring Global Investments head of systematic edge fixed income, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss ways to play treasuries in a rate cut environment.
Persons: Manju Boraiah Organizations: AllSpring Global Investments
Circle-issued USD Coin (USDC) did not hit the market until 2018. "Coinbase and Circle have a revenue sharing agreement — they share 50% of USDC revenue," he said. "If the market cap for USDC goes up revenue for Coinbase will increase as well." The market cap for dollar-backed stablecoins has been hitting all-time-highs in recent weeks after a sharp drop in 2023. Tether makes up more than 70% of the market cap of U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins, according to CryptoQuant.
Persons: Owen Lau, Oppenheimer, Lau, stablecoins Organizations: European Union, CNBC, . Locations: Europe, Crypto
Dollar on a roll after U.S. jobs data and Middle East flare-up
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Bank notes of the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. Japan's yen fell to its lowest in nearly two months and other major currencies too were grappling with losses early on Monday as the dollar extended a rally sparked by Friday's strong U.S. jobs data and an escalation in the Middle East conflict. But that came on top of a more than 4% decline last week, its biggest weekly percentage decline since early 2009. Yields dipped early last week when investors bought safe-haven Treasuries after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel in escalating geopolitical tensions. Market expectations have swung to the extreme for the Federal Reserve to do just a 25 bps cut in November, rather than 50 bps, following the jobs data.
Persons: Friday's, Chris Weston, haven't, Brent, underperformance, Shigeru Ishiba, Sterling, Huw Pill, Andrew Bailey, BoE Organizations: U.S ., Federal, U.S, Treasuries, Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: China, East, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, Japan
October is off to a rocky start, but a strong period of seasonality is only just beginning – particularly for select dividend-paying stocks, Bespoke Investment Group found. Dividend-paying stocks have been especially strong when it comes to fourth-quarter returns over the past 10 years, Bespoke found. In addition to having seasonality in their favor, dividend stocks are also expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting cycle. Tapestry also has a dividend yield of 3%. The stock has a total return of more than 21% in 2024, as well as a dividend yield of nearly 5%.
Persons: Matthew Boss, Tabby, Boss, Coach's, it's, Piper Sandler, Scott Siefers, Siefers, Wells, Michael Brown, Brown, Lamb Weston Organizations: Investment, New, JPMorgan, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America Locations: Brooklyn, BlackRock, Wells Fargo
Over time, riskier assets have outperformed cash and cash alternatives, said Brian Rehling, its head of global fixed income strategy. Different types of fixed income Investors can benefit from different types of fixed income in their portfolios, Citi said. But since then, both stocks and high-yield fixed income have increased in price. "Investors should consider taking advantage of any pullbacks in these asset classes to reposition overallocations to short-term fixed income," it said. Meanwhile, it likes U.S. intermediate term taxable fixed income, as it prefers bonds with maturities of between three and seven years.
Persons: Steven Wieting, Brian Rehling, Wells Fargo, overallocations Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Citi, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Securities . Investment Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells
Gold and crude oil rallied, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped. On the economic data front, job openings rose unexpectedly in August. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders elected to crowd into safe-haven assets like gold as Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs oil rallied, so did gold and the bond market, with investors piling into risk-off assets.
Persons: , Helima Croft, Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams Organizations: Treasury, Service, Traders, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Global, LPL, Labor, Comerica Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon
ETF Edge with State Street's Matt Bartolini
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailETF Edge with State Street's Matt BartoliniMatt Bartolini, State Street managing director and head of SPDR Americas Research, joins CNBC's Bob Pisani on the 'Halftime Report' to discuss whether investors would flee Treasuries as yields drop and more.
Persons: Matt Bartolini Matt Bartolini, Bob Pisani Organizations: State Street, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research Locations: SPDR Americas
Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal. New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kristina Hooper, JPMorgan Chase, “ There’s, Will Rhind, Rhind Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Traders, JPMorgan, Treasury, GraniteShares, Citi Locations: New York, China, Turkey, India, China’s
Here's where to invest $1 million, according to the pros
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
If you had as much as a spare $1 million to invest right now, what should you buy? Balanced-to-medium risk profile With as much as $1 million to invest with, investors can buy individual securities instead of being restricted to funds, said David Dietze, managing principal and senior portfolio strategist at Peapack Private Wealth Management. "A much smaller amount leaves an investor forced to invest in funds to get adequate diversification. With one million, one could say invest $20K in fifty different stocks and be well diversified," he said. More aggressive risk profile Gambles says that taking on a more aggressive stance would mean an "all in commitment" on the themes he expects will perform, and removing any hedges against those trades.
Persons: Paul Gambles, David Dietze, Dietze, Bristol Myers, Gambles Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Family, Yen, Wealth Management, Bristol, BHP Group, Hershey, BHP Locations: China, Australian
The Fed cut interest rates in its September meeting, which is the first cut in years. Experts say not to rush to action with your cash savings — but start doing some research. But, the Fed finally cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting on September 18 — the first rate cut since March 2020. This is true now, but it will be just as true if the Fed continues to drop the federal funds rate in the future. However, interest rate increases could lead to having to sell the note on the secondary market at a loss.
Persons: Robert Farrington, Paul Miller, Andrew Crowell, D.A, Davidson, Joseph DiSanto, DiSanto, doesn't, Holly Johnson Freelance, Holly Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, The, Investor, Miller & Company, Barclays, U.S . News, Club Locations: U.S
Khurana thinks what has made boomers the wealthiest generation — stocks and housing — also makes them a risk to economic stability. AdvertisementSuch a scenario is an '"underappreciated risk," he said, given how much boomers' spending habits have fueled economic growth in recent years. The demographic spends around $548 billion a year, more than any other generation, according to a report from marketing research firm Epsilon. AdvertisementBroken down by each generation's holdings of property and stocks, boomers accounted for 42% of all real estate ownership and 54% of all corporate equity and mutual fund ownership. That's not to say boomers will cause the next recession, but the risk during a recession is dialed up under the current paradigm, Khurana said.
Persons: , America's, Brij, Khurana, boomers, they've, John Hussman, That's Organizations: Service, Wellington Management, Business, McKinsey & Company, New York Fed, Epsilon, New, Boomers, Federal Reserve, Governors Boomers, Governors Locations: New, New York, Florida and Texas
Introduction to the federal funds rateDefinition and purpose of the federal fund rateThe federal funds rate, or fed funds rate, is the interest rate set by the Federal Open Markets Committee. The Federal Reserve lowered the federal fund rate on September 19, 2024, to stop aggressive inflation and prevent a recession. Today, the federal fund rate is 5.00%, with the federal fund target rate being 4.75% to 5.00%. How the federal funds rate worksThe federal funds rate, or the overnight rate, is the interest commercial banks charge when they lend money to one another for extremely short-term periods — literally, overnight. Federal funds rate FAQsWhat happens when the federal funds rate is high?
Persons: Karen Fernandez Tessa Campbell, Tessa Campbell, Tessa, she’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Federal Open Markets, Fed, Market, Fed's, Governors, Federal Reserve Bank, Susquehanna University
How to make the Fed rate cut work for you
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
In its August survey of car shoppers, a majority (64%) said a Fed rate cut likely would affect the timing of their purchase. But here’s the thing: Car loan rates are pretty high — the average is 7.1% for new cars and 11.3% for used cars, according to Edmunds. If you do buy a home this year and are considering buying down points to reduce your mortgage rate, crunch some numbers first, Diodato advised. That’s because you will pay thousands of dollars to buy down your mortgage rate now, and then thousands more in fees to refinance. What to do if you’re not near retirement: Reconsider how much money you’re keeping in cash or cash-equivalent investments.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , , Greg McBride, McBride, Chris Diodato, Jessica Caldwell, ” McBride, Caldwell, We’re, Diodato, you’ll, won’t, Kathy Jones, Jones Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Bankrate.com, Fed, Treasury, FDIC, Schwab Center, Financial Research, AAA, Bond Locations: Edmunds, Schwab.com
One of the main takeaways was that the biggest threats to dollar dominance are swelling US debt levels and fiscal deficits, which officials in Washington could step up to tackle. "The biggest challenge to US dollar dominance is the US itself given the mounting public debt levels and elevated fiscal deficits," JPMorgan said, in a note summarizing the webinar. For instance, many alarmists have focused on the dollar's share in foreign reserve holdings, often pointing out that the foreign central banks have piled into gold as an alternative. But this fixation omits the fact that bank deposits, sovereign wealth fund assets, and other dollar instruments have been on the rise among reserve holdings, JPMorgan said. "In China's case, it has had an explicit target to bring down dollar holdings in FX reserve but has shifted USD holdings to state-owned entities.
Persons: , Peter G, Mark Sobel —, Trump, Sobel Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, US, Peterson Foundation, Treasury, Monetary, Financial, greenback Locations: Washington, China
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. ET each day) Worldwide Exchange Word of the Day: Fed Mimi Duff from GenTrust said the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday will dominate the market action this week. Even as the Fed is expected to enter a rate cutting cycle, Duff sees the biggest opportunities in defensives like consumer staples and healthcare. INTC 1D mountain Intel, 1 day Intel continues to be a laggard in the chip space with shares down 60% year to date.
Persons: Mimi Duff, GenTrust, Duff, Jerome Powell, Big Tech Alan McKnight, Jackson, mMoney, McKnight Organizations: PRO, Worldwide, Federal, Big Tech, Regions Bank, Big, Intel, Bloomberg, Pentagon
The bulls on Wall Street have been largely right about the stock market over the past two years. Business Insider asked three bullish stock strategists what they consider the biggest risks. Yet, those economists have been largely wrong about what could sink the stock market and economy. "In May/June, when you had a lot of bears or those that had been late to jump on the bull parade all of a sudden switch their forecasts and kind of chase markets up, which is pretty, I mean pretty, pretty, pretty classic," Belski told Business Insider. The second risk is, similar to Belski's concern, a 1990's type melt-up in the stock market.
Persons: , Brian Belski, Belski, Yardeni Research's Eric Wallerstein Eric Wallerstein, Wallerstein, that's, Carson, Sonu Varghese Sonu Varghese, Varghese Organizations: Business, Service, BMO, Nvidia, Yardeni Research, Carson Group, Federal Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan
MicroStrategy shares jumped more than 8% on Friday after founder Michael Saylor said the company purchased another $1.1 billion worth of bitcoin. The stock jumped 24% for the week and is now up 124% this year. MicroStrategy's stash of 244,800 bitcoins is worth $14.6 billion. Founded in 1989, MicroStategy has a business in enterprise software and cloud-based services, but its value is now almost entirely tied to its bitcoin ownership, effectively making the company a proxy for the world's biggest cryptocurrency. It is the biggest corporate holder of the asset, according to Bitcoin Treasuries.
Persons: Michael Saylor, Saylor, MicroStategy, Bitcoin
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