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☆ The Fed insists it will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. While the Fed says it wants inflation to cool further, it doesn't need for the measure to hit its 2% target in order to cut rates. AdvertisementFed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday silenced the growing chorus of forecasters questioning the prospect of rate cuts this year. AdvertisementPowell did clarify that inflation doesn't have to fall all the way to 2% before the central bank decides to cut rates. Experts like Torsten Slok have forecasted no rate cuts may arrive at all in 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Powell, Torsten Slok Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, House Financial Services Committee, CPI

☆ Premarket stocks: Why it’s not all doom and gloom for commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.

Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, —, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States

☆ The Fed is 'held hostage' by data and risks sparking financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's over-dependence on data risks financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a recent op-ed for Bloomberg. He says the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's strict adherence to data is sapping it of policy alternatives, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote for Bloomberg on Friday. Many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2024, citing that neither inflation nor the US economy is sufficiently cooling.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Torsten Slok Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed

☆ Apollo Global says the Fed won't cut rates this year because inflation is moving higher again
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Some measures of inflation are trending higher, Apollo's Torsten Slok said in a note to clients. The upshot is, "the Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer." Slok cited a host of data showing underlying measures of trend inflation moving higher or set to do so, mentioning the Fed-preferred "supercore" basket of goods and services. He also noted evidence of higher prices paid in both manufacturing and the service data as further evidence of storm clouds gathering. In this environment, Slok said the Fed will need most of the year to continue batting down inflation.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok, Slok Organizations: Federal Reserve, Apollo Global Management, Deutsche Bank Locations: U.S

☆ The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Now, some economists think the Fed won’t cut interest rates at all this year. “The Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer,” he added. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. In some ways, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed undermined their efforts to actually cut the rates. Still, about half of investors are expecting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: —, that’s, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, ” Robert Frick, ”, Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, Fed, National Federation of Independent, Investors, Financial Services, Senate Locations: New York, Richmond

☆ 10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024, according to a chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok laid out 10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024. AdvertisementAdd Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok to the growing chorus of people skeptical the US will see a rate cut this year. "As a result, the Fed will not cut rates this year, and rates are going to stay higher for longer." Underlying inflation trends are moving higher, not coolingBLS, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist3. RB of Atlanta, NFIB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Slok, —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, BEA, Haver, RB Locations: Atlanta, NFIB

☆ Premarket stocks: Revolution or market bubble? Investors weigh the AI boom
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —What’s the difference between a revolution and a market bubble? Thanks to strong performances in stocks and bonds in 2023, coupled with steady savings rates and employer-provided matching contributions, 401(k) investors ended 2023 very much in the black, reports my colleague Jeanne Sahadi. That’s according to new fourth-quarter data from Fidelity Investments, one of the largest providers of workplace retirement plans that cover 23 million 401(k) participants. The troubled plant-based meat company, which has partnerships with McDonald’s and KFC owner Yum! On a Tuesday call with Beyond Meat’s investors, Brown outlined a set of initiatives intended to rightsize the struggling company.

Persons: New York CNN —, ’, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, ”, Torsten Slok, Yung, Yu Ma, “, Jeanne Sahadi, Gen Xers, Fidelity, Samantha Delouya, Ethan Brown, Brown Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, JPMorgan, CNBC, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, BMO Wealth Management, Big, Norges Bank Investment Management, Legal, General, AFL, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Lawyers, SEC, Fidelity, Fidelity Investments, McDonald’s, KFC, Brands Locations: New York, California, “

☆ Apollo's Torsten Slok talks the connection between low housing starts and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailApollo's Torsten Slok talks the connection between low housing starts and inflationTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk falling housing starts, the Federal Reserve and the state of inflation.

Persons: Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve

☆ The number of home sales per real estate agent is at its lowest level in over a decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, Apollo's Torsten Slok said. There are also fewer real estate agents per 1,000 jobs in states like California and New York as people flock to southern states. And it's slowing things down for real estate agents. The number of home sales per agent has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, a note from Apollo Management's Torsten Slok stated. Real estate agents per 1,000 jobs Apollo ManagementThe cost of living and even the climate have helped warp the market.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok, —, Apollo Management's Torsten Slok, Sløk, There's, Still Organizations: Service, Apollo, San Locations: California, New York, Florida , Texas , Arizona, Colorado, Real, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, New York City

☆ The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, ”, Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan

☆ Fed will only cut rates three times this year, says Apollo Global's Slok
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will only cut rates three times this year, says Apollo Global's SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether Slok is still unconvinced about the soft-landing narrative, how many cuts will happen this year, and what the market's saying about the Fed's trajectory.

Persons: Slok Torsten Slok, Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management

Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

☆ Expect rates sustained at the higher levels for at least another 7-8 months, says Apollo's Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect rates sustained at the higher levels for at least another 7-8 months, says Apollo's SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the expectations of rate cuts next year, what to make of where the consumer is going, and more.

Persons: Apollo's Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management

☆ US new home sales fall more than expected in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

New home sales dropped 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. September's sales pace was revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, would fall to a rate of 723,000 units. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 3%, making many reluctant to sell, boosting demand for new construction. Mortgage rates soared as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to fight inflation.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Torsten Slok, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Apollo Global Management, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, New York

[1/3] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. So far, he said at a Boston Fed labor market conference earlier this month, measures like the employment-to-population ratio largely have not behaved differently for key racial groups, for women versus men, or among those with different education levels. Research has since tended to suggest that there may be untapped pools of labor that only become available when the job market is tight - an argument for keeping monetary policy looser than not. The labor market recovery so far has been "remarkably equitable," she said. Pandemic-era programs threw a safety net under many families, and the tight job market that has since developed helped many get a foothold, Rouse said.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers, Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, quartile, Chris Wheat, Cecilia Rouse, Joe Biden, Rouse, what's, we're, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Institute for Economic Equity, St, Louis Federal Reserve, Boston Fed, Blacks, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Workers, Reuters Graphics, of Economic Advisers, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, joblessness

☆ Stock futures fall slightly on Sunday evening with Wall Street riding a four-week winning streak
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 38 points, or 0.1%. The rally has come despite warnings from some U.S. retailers that consumer spending is weakening. "The New York Fed's latest household survey shows that a record-high share of consumers are saying that it is much harder to obtain credit ... On Monday, new home sales and the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are due out.

Persons: Torsten Slok Organizations: Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Black, Apollo Global Management, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Locations: York

If both are calculated in dollar terms, however, Chinese stocks have, by some measures, carried an advantage over the very long term. Many observers say demographics, deleveraging, and de-risking - U.S. firms on-shoring, new supply chains, and trade tensions – will be a considerable long-term drag on Chinese growth. Little wonder, perhaps, that Chinese stocks are so cheap. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBased on 12-month forward price/earnings multiples, U.S. stocks are twice as expensive as Chinese stocks. For the past 10 years Chinese stocks have been substantially cheaper than U.S. stocks, and most of the decade before that they were usually cheaper too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Colin Graham, Graham, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai, CSI, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, China, Mexico

☆ American consumers may be starting to buckle. Here are 5 warning signs a spending slowdown is on the horizon.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are saving lessThe personal savings rate slumped to 3.4% in September. That's well-below the pre-pandemic savings rate, when Americans were stashing away around 7% of their disposable personal income. Consumers aren't planning to splurge this holiday seasonAmericans are less likely to splurge this holiday season than last year. McKinsey & CompanyAmericans are looking less likely to splurge, even as they head into the holiday season. "Hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, —, Wizman, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok Organizations: Service, Macquarie Global, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Conference, Conference Board, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Apollo, of Labor Statistics Holiday, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Locations: York

☆ The case for a career in bond investing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

I sensed familiarity with the recent fate of fixed income benchmarks such as Austria’s hundred-year government bond. For this reason, when bond yields are low, the sensitivity of capital prices to inflation and interest rate shocks is high, and vice versa. The appreciating greenback has been a drag on much of the global fixed income universe for the past decade. The real reason to go into fixed income investing, I explained, is that you get to tell governments what to do. Now that the end of monetary anaesthesia has awoken fixed income from its 15-year coma, I told the MBA students, you’ve got your chance.

Persons: Bonds, That’s, Torsten Slok, GMO’s, Liz Truss, ”, Bill Clinton’s, James Carville, you’ve, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S ., JPMorgan, Economist, UK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Venezuela

After 525 basis points of interest rate hikes, financial conditions are now the tightest in a year, and biting. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the impact on GDP from tightening financial conditions takes anywhere from one to two years to be felt. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsThe renewed weakness of U.S. regional bank shares is one of them. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBNP Paribas analysts reckon the impact on GDP growth from tighter financial conditions recently equates to a 40 basis point rate hike. Around a third of the bank's financial conditions index rise since April is from higher bond yields.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Slok, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, October's

☆ Recession is coming on the horizon, says Apollo Global's Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession is coming on the horizon, says Apollo Global's SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the global economy, why the Federal Reserve believes policy may not be tight enough, and the Federal Reserve's tools to bring the economy out of recession should it begin.

Persons: Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve

☆ Jamie Dimon is right: Economic forecasts have been wrong lately, but that's really nothing new
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Win Mcnamee | ReutersForecasters have been really wrong on the economy recently, but it's nothing new: They've always been wrong. — that the economic forecasts of the major Wall Street banks had been "100 percent dead wrong" in the last 18 months. It's true that Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine threw off forecasts, but that's beside the point: Wrong forecasts are the norm, not the exception. The Federal Reserve's own research staff studied the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts from 1997 to 2008 and found that the Fed's predictions for economic activity one year out were no better than average benchmark predictions. The Times story notes other factors that threw off recent economic forecasts: the Russian invasion of Ukraine: being too pessimistic on growth prospects, lack of good data on real-time consumer savings.

Persons: Win Mcnamee, Jamie Dimon, —, Dimon, He's, Torsten Slok, Russia hadn't, It's, Philip Tetlock, Covid Organizations: U.S . Federal, Washington , D.C, Reuters, JPMorgan Chase, Future Investment, New York Times, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Federal, University of Pennsylvania, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine, U.S

☆ Analysis: Wall Street's 'Magnificent Seven' face moment of truth as earnings season arrives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.

Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, “, Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple

☆ It's still too early for the Fed to say 'mission accomplished', says Apollo's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's still too early for the Fed to say 'mission accomplished', says Apollo's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the current U.S. job market.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York

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