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Now, as a new week unfolds, the debate is shifting to how strong the economy performed at year-end and whether 2024 will also bring good tidings. Recent inflation data has shown prices are trending back toward the central bank’s target of 2% annual inflation. The Fed will have its first meeting of 2024 late this month after holding interest rates steady at its December meeting. A stronger economy or a hotter-than-expected reading on inflation might push the first cut into the second half of the year. Another important piece of the economic puzzle will be the leading economic index from The Conference Board, due out Monday.

Persons: ” Christopher Rupkey, “, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Conference Board Locations: COVID

“Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations,” Hsu added. “Like December, there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography,” Hsu said. There may, however, be some relief in 2024 as mortgage rates fall in line with reduced interest rates from the Federal Reserve. “Mortgage rates will continue to remain a wild card for home shoppers,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months."

Persons: Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, ”, Danielle Hale, Lawrence Yun Organizations: University of Michigan, Republicans, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, “, Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s Locations: “, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Permits were 1.9% more than the upwardly revised 1.47 million November number and at an annual level of 1.5 million. Housing starts fell 4.3% from the November annual rate of 1.53 million, a reading that was revised downward from the robust 1.56 million originally estimated. Both permits and starts were higher than a year ago, by 6.1% and 7.6%, respectively. The Best Cartoons on the Economy View All 178 Images“Falling mortgage rates should jump-start the demand for housing in the coming months,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders said its January survey found builder confidence surged as mortgage rates for the benchmark 30-year fixed rate loan dipped to 6.75%.

Persons: ”, Jeffrey Roach, Alicia Huey, Kelly Mangold Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, Housing, LPL, National Association of Home Builders, ” Builders, Real Estate Consulting Locations: Birmingham , Alabama, U.S

Notably, the report suggested that inflation was not as powerful a force as it had been a few months back. These numbers point to a strong spring, especially with the Fed getting more dovish. “Both changes would support the economy and extend growth, but also likely weaken the US dollar,” Khurana says. Businesses are entering 2024 in a positive mood, according to Dun & Bradstreet’s quarterly Global Business Optimism index released on Tuesday. The National Association of Homebuilders’ sentiment index improved in January to its highest level since September.

Persons: “, ”, David Russell, Chip, ” Brij, Khurana Organizations: Federal Reserve, “, Fed, Wellington Management, National Association of Locations: York, Dun

Americans continued to spend heavily as 2023 came to an end, driving retail sales higher by 0.6% in December, fueled by online purchases and spending at bars and restaurants, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. Excluding auto sales and gasoline that tend to be volatile month to month, sales rose by 0.6% as well compared to forecasts of a 0.2% increase. “Strong increase of 0.6% with the control group that feeds into the estimate of GDP up a robust 0.8%. Outstanding credit card spending debt surpassed $1 trillion in the third quarter, although debt-to-income levels were below 10% and modest compared to the early 2000s. Behind the shift is a belief that declining inflation and a cut in interest rates will help the economy grow modestly as the year unfolds.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Carl Marks, ”, Howard Meitiner Organizations: Census, RSM, Carl, Carl Marks Advisors, “ Retailers, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: U.S

Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

Political, business and other elites will gather once again Monday for the World Economic Forum’s 54th annual meeting in the Alpine hamlet of Davos, Switzerland, to tackle the thorniest of problems, from war to inequality to climate change. The forum is not without its own controversy, having been pegged over the years as a haven for globalists and ruling elites. This year’s conference comes on the heels of a report released Wednesday by think tank The Conference Board detailing findings from a survey of global business leaders, which showed a global economic downturn and inflation are among the top concerns of CEOs worldwide. With Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict raging on, global political instability also topped the list of things keeping corporate leaders awake at night. Meanwhile, global growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2024, according to a report from the World Bank released on Tuesday.

Persons: Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Nelson Mandela, Jacques Yvez, Tony Blair, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch, Bono, Antony Blinken, Li Qiang, Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Javier Milei, Antonio Guterres, “, ”, Andres Cadena, Elon Musk, Gayle Markovitz, ” Markovitz, Economists Organizations: corporate titans, McKinsey, Republican, White, Trump, World Economic, World Bank Locations: U.S, Israel, Davos, Switzerland, Argentine, China, Ukraine

Wholesale inflation fell by 0.1% in December, capping a year in which the rate of price increases dropped sharply, according to a report from the Labor Department released on Friday. The producer price index for all of 2023 came in at 1% compared to 6.4% in 2022. No indication of inflation at the wholesale level,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, posted on social media. A lot will depend on how the economy performs this year after putting in a strong performance in 2023. Wages are increasing and now running higher than the level of inflation, giving support to consumer spending.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, ”, Jeffrey Roach, ” “, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Ian Bremmer, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, ” Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, LPL Financial, BCA Research, Fed, U.S, Global Affairs, Goldman, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, JPMorgan Locations: Red, Iranian, Asia, U.S, Ukraine

On an annual basis, inflation ticked up to 3.4% from 3.1% previously. The core CPI, stripping out energy and food costs, was unchanged but dipped down to 3.9% annually from 4% in November. Government measures of housing costs tend to lag market rates, which have been trending down for apartment rental rates lately. The central bank decided at its meeting last month to leave interest rates unchanged while also penciling in at least three cuts in 2024. The Fed did warn that, should the economy perform stronger than expected, it retains the option to increase interest rates, though the probability of that is seen as low.

Persons: “, ”, Phillip Neuhart Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, Markets, First, Bank Wealth Management, Dow Jones Industrial

The number of job openings fell sharply in October, to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.35 million a month earlier, according to the Labor Department. The number released Tuesday was lower than economists had forecast and suggests that the labor market is slowing as the year comes to an end. “Job openings dropped to 8,733,000 in October, the lowest level since March 2021. Despite some volatile jumps/drops month-to-month, job openings have been on a downward trend since early 2022,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist and senior manager on Glassdoor’s economic research team, posted on social media. The Federal Reserve will be looking at the latest readings on the labor market as they come one week before officials meet to consider monetary policy.

Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, Jeffrey Roach, Joanie Bily, ” Bily, “, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, LPL, American Staffing Association, ” Nomura Securities, Hollywood, Government, Federal, Fed

Last Friday provided a split-screen view of the markets and the Federal Reserve. “Indeed, we look for the return of striking workers to add nearly 45K jobs to November’s payrolls. Wednesday brings the first measure of the November job market when private payroll firm ADP releases its monthly survey of employers. October came in at 150,000, a drop from the recent trend of around 200,000 jobs added per month. Consequently, we expect the post-meeting statement will keep the door open to the possibility of additional tightening this cycle.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” William Blair, Richard de Chazal, that’s, de Chazal, –, payrolls, “, Sam Bullard, November’s, Bullard, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Spelman College, “, Futures, United Auto Workers, UAW, Hollywood, Wells, Labor

Both are yet another indication that inflation has moderated from its pace of last year when consumer inflation was running at a 9.1% annual rate. “After fears of "sticky" and "persistent" inflation, the month to month slowing in the core pce readings is encouraging. Core pce has risen by 0.3% or less for 8 consecutive months. Political Cartoons on Inflation View All 19 Images"This report hit the trifecta,” said Navy Federal Credit Union corporate economist Robert Frick. “During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, ”, Robert Frick, “, Zumper, Lawrence Yun, Curt Long Organizations: Federal Reserve, pce, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal Credit Union, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Fed, Labor, National Association of Federal Credit Unions, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: “

The economy was even hotter in the third quarter than initially believed, according to an update Wednesday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Increased investment and government spending drove the higher estimate. in 3Q23, up from initial estimate of +4.9% … personal consumption revised lower while business investment revised higher,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, posted on social media. “Ultimately, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic helped boost consumer spending and delay the onset of recession,” BCA Research wrote on Wednesday. “However, the tailwind from excess savings is ebbing.

Persons: ann, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Consumers, Monday’s Organizations: Gross, BEA, “, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Research, San Francisco Fed, BCA, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: 3Q23, U.S

Consumers grew somewhat more optimistic about the future of the economy in November as expectations about inflation improved, but their sense of the current state of affairs worsened a bit. Still, two-thirds of consumers surveyed still expect a recession to be “somewhat” or “very likely” within the next 12 months. However, that is well above current inflation of 3.2% and forecasts from the Federal Reserve and mainstream economists. In the peak hour from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST, consumers spent $15.7 million a minute, according to online analytics firm Adobe. One thing that might make some consumers happy is that home prices continued to increase in September.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, Jeffrey Roach, Craig J, Lazzara, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, Federal Reserve, LPL, “, Adobe, MLS Locations: Detroit, San Diego

New home sales fell 5.6% in October, worse than expected, as higher mortgage rates took a bite out of demand. The annual level of sales in October was 679,000, down from September’s substantially revised 719,000 pace, However, sales in October were still up 17.7% from a year ago. October saw a sharp increase in mortgage rates to around 8% for a 30-year fixed rate loan. However, the higher mortgage rates have slowed sales of new homes as well. The recent drop in mortgage rates, with more expected next year, could prove to be a tonic to the market.

Persons: ”, Kelly Mangold, Greg Logan, Lisa Sturtevant, ” “, ” Sturtevant Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, Builders, RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, MLS Locations: RCLCO, Southern, Northeast, Midwest

A lot of the spending was driven by deals and buy-now, pay-later programs. The Fed’s “beige book” report on the economy is out on Wednesday, and that will show how inflation is affecting businesses and consumers. But consumers continue to express concern over inflation that has left overall prices higher by about 18% since 2021. “With inflation falling as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, real interest rates continue to tighten,” said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. But consumers remain concerned about inflation and just how much will be seen on Tuesday when the Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index for November.

Persons: SpendingPulse, ”, Vivek Pandya, Signifyd, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, “ Organizations: Adobe Analytics, Adobe Digital, Consumers, Retailers, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wells, ”, Conference Board

Consumer sentiment edged down in November with expectations for future business conditions taking a sharp tumble. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ended the month at 61.3, a 3.9% drop from the 63.8 in October. The current conditions index fell 3.3% to 68.3, while the future expectations index declined 4.2% to 56.8. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 610 Images“Long-run inflation expectations rose from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, a reading last seen in 2011,” Hsu noted. Sentiment also has been divided by political affiliation with Republicans far more critical of the economy than Democrats.

Persons: “ Younger, ”, Joanne Hsu, “, ” Hsu Organizations: University of, Republicans, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Dow Jones

“Participants generally noted a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,” the minutes noted. “FOMC minutes reinforced the ’wait and see’ policy stance was unanimous. Focus was on tightening in financial conditions and slowing in inflation and labor market. The central bank will meet on Dec. 12 for a two-day meeting of its monetary policy committee, but the markets are pricing in no increase in interest rates. “I’m expecting continued relief concerning inventory and mortgage rates as the Fed begins cutting rates in the first half of next year,” Torres says.

Persons: “, ” Kathy Jones, Jose Torres, “ I’m, ” Torres, Torres Organizations: Schwab Center, Financial Research, Fed, National Association of Realtors, Interactive

Sales of existing homes fell by 4.1% in October as a shortage of houses for sale and higher mortgage rates dampened activity, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. The annual level of sales reached 3.79 million, down 14.6% from a year ago when sales were 4.44 million. “Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. There is some relief, however, as mortgage rates have fallen in the past week. Some housing industry analysts believe rates could trend under 7% early next year as overall interest rates begin falling amid expectations the Federal Reserve is done raising rates.

Persons: ”, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, “, Danielle Hale Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Midwest, Federal Locations: “

And gas prices are down around $3 a gallon ahead of this critical week for holiday driving, while mortgage rates have backed off their recent highs. There is little expectation the Fed will raise interest rates in December at its next meeting after being on pause since July and two benign inflation reports last week. Such a benign inflation outcome would increase our conviction that the coming recession will be mild.”It will be a shortened week for economic data and market activity. The week starts with a read on the economy from the Conference Board’s leading economic index. Still, the overriding narrative at the moment is one that sees a slowdown bringing further relief on the inflation front and continued, if weaker, growth ahead for the economy.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Research, US Bond Strategy, Conference, University of

The pace of new construction quickened in October as both building permits and housing starts rose despite elevated mortgage rates, the government reported on Friday. New housing starts were 1.372 million compared to 1.346 million a month earlier. “A good inflation report and steadily declining mortgage rates provide some relief to the market. Also on a positive note, mortgage rates fell this week following the CPI and the resultant drop in bond yields from their recent highs. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average of 7.44% in the week ending Nov. 16, a drop from 7.5% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said on Thursday.

Persons: Wells, ”, Lisa Sturtevant, homebuyers, Freddie Mac, Odeta Kushi Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, National Association of Home Builders, MLS, homebuilders, ”, CPI, “ Builders, First Locations: Midwest, West

☆ Worried About Inflation? Move to Alaska, Sell the Car and Become a Vegetarian
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +7 min

The consumer price index for October showed inflation at a 3.2% level, while the producer price index came in with an annual rate of 1.3%. Perhaps the most interesting and relevant facts about inflation are that the overall number means little to the average person. “Although the overall consumer price level was flat in October, shelter inflation continued,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. Overall inflation among select urban areas was highest in the Miami to West Palm Beach corridor, up by 7.4% in October. Their inflation rate was 1.1%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Richard McPhail, Doug McMillon, McMillon, ”, Kayla Bruun, Joe Biden, PublicSquare, Tony Welch, Danielle Hale, Shawn Ashworth, Ashworth, Maxx, Jeff Bezos Organizations: Federal, Walmart, New York Jets, Realtor.com, Berkeley Research, Goods, Auto Locations: U.S, ”, Florida, Miami, West Palm, Anchorage , Alaska

The monthly decline in the producer price index was the largest since April 2020, when the country was facing the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding energy and food costs, the core index is now at 2.9% annualized, slightly above where it stood in September. Analysts had predicted a monthly drop of 0.1% and an annual rate of 1.9% for the overall index. It was the second reading in as many days that showed inflation receding closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. The core index, leaving out energy and food costs, came in at 4%.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, John Sedunov, ”, Jerome Powell, “, Wells, Dan North Organizations: of Labor Statistics, “, Analysts, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Dow Jones, Research, Villanova University, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Census, North America, Allianz Trade, Consumers Locations: Washington, U.S

Consumer prices held stable in October, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.7% a month ago as energy prices receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. “Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report,” RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on social media, noting that month-over-month inflation was flat at 3.2% and core inflation was up 0.2 percent to 4% over the same period. Although prices for a wide variety of goods and services have cooled this year, the current inflation rate is well above the 2% target set by the central bank. “Inflation expectations over the next 5 years dipped to 2.7%, slightly above the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the outlook.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Stocks, Matt Bush, Patrick De Haan, “, ”, Piyush Patel, Jeffrey Roach, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: of Labor Statistics, RSM, Federal, Treasury, Dow Industrial, Guggenheim Partners, CNBC, National Retail Foundation, NRF, Affinity Solutions, Wall Street, Travel, Gas, New York Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan’s, LPL, Investment, ” Goldman Locations: U.S

The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.

Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, ”, Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, “, Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington

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