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☆ Jobless benefits rolls grow but U.S. labor market remains resilient
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 41,000 to 1.710 million in the week ending Dec. 17. The latest report is the first since February to show them breaching the lower end of the 1.7-1.8 million trend that prevailed in the years leading up to the coronavirus pandemic, a level seen then as emblematic of a tight labor market. Reuters GraphicsAnd, while the figures for new benefits claims have been choppy in recent weeks, they have held well below the 270,000 threshold that economists see as a red flag for the labor market. The unemployment rate is estimated to have remained unchanged at 3.7%. "This dichotomy of demand cannot persist indefinitely, but it will help the labor market achieve a softer landing than it would otherwise."

☆ Dow and stock market tumbles. So much for an end-of-year rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Christmas is just ten days away, and investors are still hoping for a Santa Claus rally. The Dow tumbled more than 700 points, or 2.1%, Thursday, and it is down about 4% in December following solid gains the previous two months. The S&P 500 is now off more than 4% for the month while the Nasdaq has sank 5%. The Fed raised rates by “just” a half of a percentage point Wednesday, as expected. It didn’t help that the government also reported a much bigger drop in retail sales for November than expected on Thursday.

☆ Fed discount window borrowing is edging up, but is it a problem?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

In March 2020 at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic discount window borrowing surged to a peak of around $50 billion. Reuters GraphicsA JUMP IN BORROWINGDiscount window borrowing is opaque by design, and firm conclusions are difficult to reach, analysts say. “There really shouldn't be a reason discount window borrowing is increasing at all,” said Thomas Simons, an economist with investment bank Jefferies. “The increase in discount window borrowing may be a sign that funding pressures are building at the fringes of the market,” Abate wrote. Rising discount window borrowing might also have implications for the Fed's ongoing efforts to shrink the size of its balance sheet.

☆ Investors look for clues on consumer health as holiday shopping kicks off
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Investors are closely watching U.S. retail stocks as a barometer of consumer confidence as inflation bites, as the most important shopping season of the year begins on Friday. That would come in below both the 13.5% jump reported last year, and the 9.3% gain in 2020. Expectations for purchasing long-lasting manufactured goods fell 21% due to high interest rates and high prices, the survey found. Shares of Walmart are up 7.5% for the month to date, while shares of Target are down 1.2%. Kohl's, meanwhile, withdrew its forecast as it faces weakening demand due to rising prices.

☆ Dollar drops as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed results
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. The odds of a 75-basis-point rise went as high as 64% immediately after the payrolls data. Despite the strong jobs data, Fed officials on Friday said a smaller rate increase is still on the table for the December policy meeting. read moreThe dollar fell 1.1% against the yen to 146.65 yen , posting losses for a third straight week.

☆ Dollar tumbles as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed picture
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs added instead of 263,000 as previously reported. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. Despite the strong jobs data, Fed officials on Friday said a smaller rate increase is still on the table for the December policy meeting. read moreThe dollar fell 0.8% against the yen to 147.06 yen , while the euro rose 1.7% to $0.9920 .

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose after the release of the data, as did bets that the Fed may raise its target policy rate higher than anticipated. DIFFICULT TO PIVOTThe job openings data "will make it very difficult for the Fed to pivot" towards a slower pace of rate hikes, as many have expected, Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons wrote. Quits are seen as a sign of labor market strength, evidence that people either have a more attractive option in front of them or are confident of finding one. Balanced against the strength of the labor market is evidence that a slowing of inflation may be in the pipeline. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jump in job openings "is another example of data 'not cooperating' with the Fed's desire to slow the pace of rate hikes," Citi analysts wrote.

☆ The economy may be in better shape than you think...for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Reuters is that GDP grew at an annualized pace of 2.1% in the third quarter. (This will be the first estimate for third-quarter GDP, and there will be several revisions in the coming weeks.) That also means the Fed will likely continue to sharply raise interest rates to finally choke off inflation once and for all. Those rate hikes helped cause a so-called double-dip recession, where the economy suffered two downturns between 1980 and 1982. In other words, the much-hoped-for “soft landing” for the economy could turn out to be a pipe dream.

☆ U.S. factory output solid in September; builder sentiment slumps further
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The two data points out Tuesday illustrate the uneven impact the U.S. central bank's rate hikes are having so far on the economy. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, keeping pace with an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Overall industrial production rose 0.4%, after slipping 0.1% the prior month. The rate hikes have torpedoed activity in the housing sector, and Wednesday's data from the National Association of Home Builders reinforced that. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues."

☆ Swiss National Bank makes another large draw on Fed swap line
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 13 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank this week drew nearly $6.3 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve's currency swap line facility, roughly double the amount drawn a week earlier, New York Fed data released on Thursday showed. A week earlier it drew $3.1 billion at the same term and rate. They are available also to the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada and allow those banks to deliver dollar-funding to financial institutions in their own jurisdictions. The ECB was the only other central bank making a swap trade with the Fed this week. It drew $211.5 million, up from $206.5 million a week earlier but in the range of the ECB's typical weekly draw over the last year.

☆ Reactions: Putin mobilises more troops for Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +20 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin makes an address on the conflict with Ukraine, in Moscow, Russia, in this still image taken from video released September 21, 2022. I think even with this Russia stuff it’s hard to see the market really rally a lot more from here ahead of the FOMC. From a geopolitical standpoint, Putin is frustrated that the war isn’t going his way and he’s threatening the west. "If it gets really, really bad, I'd expect the dollar to rise." This announcement by Putin to intensify the escalation in Ukraine definitely doesn’t help.

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