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The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, , Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan needs to increase interest rates to defend the Japanese yen: StrategistAmir Anvarzadeh of Asymmetric Advisors discusses the outlook of the Japanese economy and what role the Bank of Japan can play to strengthen the Yen.
Persons: Amir Anvarzadeh Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, Advisors, Bank of Japan
Chatter that President-elect Donald Trump could appoint former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to oversee trade policy is moving markets, from the dollar on currency exchanges to stocks that would be sensitive to tariffs. During Trump's first term as the president, Lighthizer was central to his protectionist policy and was U.S. trade representative role when Trump launched the trade war with China. "Any clues on Trump's appointments may be market moving," Jim Reid, research strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. Trump's policy proposals to cut taxes and slap tariffs on imports are believed to undermine the currencies of some of America's biggest trading partners. Bank of America tracks a basket of consumer stocks with high exposure to China tariffs, and these companies plunged on Friday.
Persons: Donald Trump, Robert Lighthizer, Lighthizer, Trump, Jim Reid, Kamala Harris, hasn't Organizations: . Trade, Financial Times, Deutsche Bank, US Trade Representative, Trump, CNN, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: U.S, China
Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' rejection of incumbent political parties across the world this year. South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth. He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, , Donald Trump, Biden, Harris, Narendra Modi, Korea's Democrat Party snagged, Jim Reid, Tina Fordham, Louis Perron, Deutsche Bank's Reid Organizations: Service, Democratic, Britain's Labour Party, Conservative Party, Rally, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Indian, Korea's Democrat Party, National Congress, ANC, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of England, European Central Bank, CNN, Win, Deutsche Locations: Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Cape Town, Washington, Gaza, country's, South, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBOJ may be 'cornered' into raising rates if yen depreciates quickly after Trump victory: MizuhoShoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities, says if the yen starts to hit the 158-160 level, the Bank of Japan may be forced to raise rates earlier than it intended.
Persons: Omori Organizations: Trump, Mizuho, Mizuho Securities, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan
Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar further unwound some of its sharp gains from earlier in the week as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency after his election victory. That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark, while the yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level. Sterling last traded $1.2983, recovering from its fall to a roughly three-month low earlier in the week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.03% to 104.44, on track to gain just above 0.1% for the week. "All eyes are on what may emerge from China's policy toolkit after the conclusion of the NPC standing committee meeting."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kerry Craig, Trump, Wells, Jay Bryson, Sterling, David Chao Organizations: White, National People's Congress, Trump, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Traders, Bank of England, NPC, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, European Union Locations: U.S, Beijing, Germany, Wells Fargo, Japan, Invesco
People visit a riverside in front of the Lujiazui financial district, during the National People's Congress (NPC) in Shanghai, China, March 7, 2023. Aly Song | ReutersAsia-Pacific markets were set to climb on Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and major U.S. indexes continued their postelection rally. In Japan, the country will be releasing spending data for September, which will offer clues to the policy path ahead for the Bank of Japan. Strong spending data would support the case for the BOJ to raise rates, and vice versa. If stocks follow futures, the Hong Kong index will hit its highest level in about a month.
Persons: Aly Song, Australia's Organizations: National People's Congress, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, China's National People Congress, Bank of Japan, Nikkei Locations: Shanghai, China, Reuters Asia, Pacific, U.S, Asia, Japan, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England looks set to cut rates four times in 2025, economist saysKallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, weighs in on the likely course for U.K. interest rates, saying the Bank of England looks set to cut by a total of 100 basis points in 2025.
Persons: Kallum Pickering, Peel Hunt Organizations: Email Bank of England, Peel, Bank of England
European markets are heading for a mixed open as global investors digest Donald Trump's presidential election win and political upheaval in Germany. They also await monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Global markets continue to react to Donald Trump's decisive election win, with U.S. stocks rallying Wednesday as Wall Street rejoiced the speedy conclusion of the presidential election. Central banks will be closely watched Thursday, with the Fed and BoE both expected to announce rate cuts. Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on Jan. 15.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Germany's DAX, BoE, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Lindner's, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, Global, Fed Locations: Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
Firm dollar keeps peers on back foot ahead of BOE, Fed decisions
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Trump's policies on restricting illegal immigration, enacting new tariffs, lowering taxes and deregulation may boost growth and inflation and crimp the Fed's ability to cut rates. Following the election, markets now see about a 70% chance the Fed will also cut rates next month, down from 77% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. Anything less than a "dovish cut" from the Fed on Thursday could see traders trim back bets for a December cut and the dollar and yields rising higher, Simpson added. The yen was up 0.22% at 154.30 per dollar, after touching 154.7 on Wednesday, its lowest against the greenback since July 30. The Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points, and the Norges Bank is set to stay on hold.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, Trump, Treasuries, Simpson Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Trump, White, Index, Treasury, Fed, Republicans, CME, Bank of England, Norges Bank, Bitcoin Locations: U.S, Index ., cryptocurrencies
A pedestrian crosses the streets in front of The Bank of England illuminated by a ray of sunlight, in central London, on February 12, 2024. LONDON — The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates Thursday, when policymakers deliver their first monetary policy decision following Labour's bumper budget announcement last week. The BOE is forecast to lower rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, bringing its key rate to 4.75%. Policymakers had signaled a "gradual approach" to cuts after holding rates steady at their September meeting. The Federal Reserve on Thursday will also deliver its latest interest rate decision following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, having previously cut by 50 basis points in September.
Persons: BOE, Goldman Sachs, Rachel Reeves Organizations: The Bank of England, LONDON, Bank of England, Finance, Federal Reserve, U.S Locations: London
The Bank of America Institute found the top eight cities where people are moving for cheaper rent. "Consumers would rather pack their bags than pay a higher rent, and that can play out in two ways," Joe Wadford, an economist at the Bank of America Institute, tells CNBC Make It. Cleveland, Ohio Ken Redding | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesTop 8 U.S. cities where people are moving for cheaper rentCleveland, OhioIndianapolis, Ind. The state of Ohio had two cities land in the top 8 on the Bank of America Institute list. The city is home to major sports teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Cleveland Guardians, and the Cleveland Browns.
Persons: Major metropolises, Joe Wadford, Wadford, Cleveland , Ohio Ken Redding, Bill Dickinson Organizations: of America Institute, Bank of America Institute, Bank of America, Las Vegas , Nevada Eyeem Mobile, Istock, Getty, CNBC, Bank, Cleveland, Cleveland Cavaliers, Cleveland Guardians, Cleveland Browns, Roll Hall of Fame, Cleveland Museum of Art, Columbus, Columbus Ohio Sky Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, West, Northeast, New York, Boston, San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Cleveland , Ohio, Cleveland , Ohio Indianapolis, Ind, Las Vegas, Nev, Columbus , Ohio Jacksonville, Fla, Austin , Texas Phoenix, Ariz, Nashville, Tenn, Ohio, U.S, Columbus Ohio
She got her first credit card as a freshman to build up her credit score and kept a strict budget. Griffin now uses her AmEx cards to earn points for travel costs and flew to Japan for free. I'd marked all the due dates in my calendar, and I was never late for a credit card payment. AdvertisementIn addition to all the benefits I've received when traveling, my credit cards helped me raise my credit score to 755. I never stop learning about financeI think college students should consider getting a student credit card with no fee.
Persons: Skylar Griffin, Griffin, , I'd, I've, I'm, Amex isn't Organizations: Service, Columbus State University, Bank of America, Marriott, Hilton, Hertz, Rentals, Business, of America Locations: Japan, Georgia, New York, Bahamas, Japan , New York, Miami
A screen displays the Nikkei 225 Stock Average figure on the trading floor at the Nomura Securities Co. headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Jan. 11, 2024. SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Wednesday after Wall Street surged overnight ahead of the U.S. presidential election results. Japan's Nikkei 225 opened up 0.7%, while the Topix gained 0.4%. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released later in the day, which could give insights on where the members stand on the bank's policy path. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% higher.
Persons: Kospi Organizations: Nomura Securities Co, U.S, Nikkei, People's Congress Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE — Asia, Pacific
Oversnap | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britons are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates for longer after the government's tax-and-spend budget threw off expectations for a series of near-term interest rate cuts. Mortgage rates also took a hit from the uncertainty, with a number of smaller and mainstream lenders raising mortgage rates on the expectation that interest rates may stay higher for longer. watch nowVirgin Money became the first major lender to raise mortgage rates after the budget, lifting them by 0.15%. "This isn't the radical spike in rates that have blighted mortgage rates in the last couple of years. He added that interest rates could now remain 50-basis-points higher than previously expected at the end of the cutting cycle.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , David Hollingworth, Hollingworth, Allan Monks, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, Wednesday, Virgin Money, Santander, Morgan's Locations: London's, Oversnap
Capital One Quicksilver Student Cash Rewards Credit Card OverviewCapital One Quicksilver Student Cash Rewards Credit Card Apply now lock icon An icon in the shape of lock. Capital One Savor Student Cash Rewards Card ReviewCapital One Quicksilver Student Card vs. the Bank of America® Unlimited Cash Rewards Credit Card for StudentsThe Bank of America® Unlimited Cash Rewards Credit Card for Students is another strong option, offering a flat 1.5% cash back on all purchases, similar to the Capital One Quicksilver Student card. Bank of America Unlimited Cash Rewards Card for Students ReviewCapital One Quicksilver Student Card Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat is the difference between Quicksilver Rewards and Quicksilver Rewards for Student? The difference between the Quicksilver Rewards Card and the Quicksilver Rewards Card for Students is that the former offers more perks. Why You Should Trust Us: How We Reviewed the Capital One Quicksilver Student Cash Rewards Credit CardOur experts evaluated the Capital One Quicksilver Student Cash Rewards Credit Card relative to other student credit cards and cards for folks with fair or average credit.
Persons: it's, That's, you'll, , There's, Modest, David McMillin David McMillin, Guy, David, he's, Angela Fung, Read, Gabriel Vito Gabriel Vito, Gabriel, Education Gabriel, ExperienceExpertiseEducation Read Organizations: Business, Bank of America, Capital, Chevron, Entertainment, Walmart, Gas, Quicksilver, The Bank of America, Review, Finance, Forbes, CNN, University of California, Banking, Education, The University of California Locations: Capital One's, Chicago, Alaska , Utah , Oklahoma, Vermont, Riverside
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen . Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. "A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in 'Trump trades' quickly reversed and priced out," he added. Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing. Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Chris Weston, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Dealers, Trump, Reserve, of England, Norges Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Labor, China's National People's Congress, Reuters Locations: Asia, United States, Iowa, Treasuries, gilts, Beijing
Defense firms are busy — but high inflation and interest rates past 20% have left them struggling. AdvertisementIn Russia's defense sector, demand is surging — but its companies are struggling all the same. Rising interest rates and export bans were eroding Russian defense companies' profits across the board, they said, making the Russian state the only guarantor of revenues. Sheremeta described the situation as a "death spiral," where war spending begets more inflation, which requires more war spending. "If some defense companies cannot fulfill their obligations, the Kremlin can simply nationalize them," Sheremeta said.
Persons: , Sergei Chemezov, Roman Sheremeta, Sheremeta, Daniel Treisman, Korhonen, Julian Cooper, Konstantin Sonin, Sonin Organizations: Service, Rostec, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, Bloomberg, University of California, National Bureau of Economic Research, Central Bank, Bank of Finland Institute, Emerging, Centre for Russian, East European Studies, University of Birmingham, University of Chicago Harris School of Public, Project Syndicate Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Los Angeles
Loading chart...LONDON — U.K. borrowing costs posted two days of gains right after the Labour government unveiled a huge package of borrowing and tax rises in its Wednesday budget — but analysts downplayed the possibility of a second "mini-budget" crisis in the British bond market. The 10-year gilt yield , representing medium-term borrowing costs for the government, was slightly lower on the day at 11:20 a.m. London time. Yields move inversely to prices, so higher yields represent a sell-off in bonds — and an aversion to funding U.K. debt. The incident sent bond yields soaring so rapidly, they threatened to destabilize pension funds. Loading chart..."The market is right to be concerned" about the U.K. fiscal outlook, Mohit Kumar, chief financial economist for Europe at Jefferies, told CNBC.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Liz Truss, BOE, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, It's, Streeter, CNBC's, Sterling, Mohit Kumar, We've Organizations: LONDON, Labour, Wednesday, Bank of England, Deutsche Bank, Hargreaves, U.S ., Jefferies, CNBC Locations: London
Dollar steady as investors eye U.S. jobs report, election
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week. The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week. The U.S. dollar started November off at a lower level after coming under pressure against the yen and euro on Thursday. (Kazuo) Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday. The Fed's monetary policy decision next week comes just days after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
Persons: Nonfarm, Tapas Strickland, Kazuo, Ueda's, Morgan Stanley, Takeshi Yamaguchi, Masayuki Inui, Sterling, Rachel Reeves, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump's Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Reuters, National Australia Bank, Gov, U.S, Republican, Democratic, Trump, Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
After a messy election, the Bank of Japan decided to hold its benchmark policy rate at 0.25%, as expected. These outlook risks highlight that the timing of the next BOJ rate hike could depend heavily on developments overseas, as well as the exchange rate and its impact on the Japanese economy, Otani added. He added that it would surpass the 13 trillion yen ($84.6 billion) allocated in last year's supplementary budget. When Ishiba returns, he is expected to hold an extraordinary Diet session, during which he hopes to pass the supplementary budget plan, according to local news. Then I would probably rule out a rate hike in December, because that would create a lot of uncertainty about the fiscal situation."
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Akira Otani, Goldman Sachs, Otani, Marcel Thieliant, Shigeru Ishiba, Ishibia, Ishiba, Thieliant Organizations: Japan, Bank of Japan, Moody's, Liberal Democratic Party, Asia Pacific, Capital Economics, CNBC, Democratic Party Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Brazil
watch nowLONDON — U.K. bond yields spiked sharply Thursday after the ruling Labour Party unveiled a sweeping package of tax hikes and increased borrowing. Yields had already risen on Wednesday shortly after the budget announcement by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, which contained plans for £40 billion ($52 billion) worth of tax hikes and committed to substantially higher borrowing in the coming years. Despite the big moves this week, the gilt market is remaining relatively stable compared to September 2022, when the U.K. suffered its so-called "mini-budget crisis." Analysts had said ahead of the October 2024 budget that such bond market volatility was unlikely to repeat itself, largely because the U.K. inflation has dropped sharply since the Truss era. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said Thursday it would "reduce the urgency for sequential cuts in the near term."
Persons: Rachel Reeves, We've, Liz Truss, Truss, Reeves, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Andrew Sheets, BOE, Sterling Organizations: Labour Party, Labour, ING, Budget, Conservative Party, Bank of England, Goldman, CNBC, U.S Locations: London
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan paused its interest rate normalization to wait for the outcome of the U.S. electionShigeto Nagai of Oxford Economics says the Bank of Japan cannot explicitly state so, but the main concern and reason behind its monetary policy decision is how the U.S. elections might affect the Yen.
Persons: Shigeto Nagai Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, Oxford Economics, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), speaks during a news conference at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, JapanAsia-Pacific markets are set for a mixed open on Thursday as investors look to the Bank of Japan's rate decision, as well as key business activity figures from China. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ will hold rates at 0.25%, although the statement will be parsed for any clues on the timing of its next rate hike. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the country's official purchasing managers index numbers for September, with the manufacturing PMI forecast to come in at 49.9, a softer contraction than the 49.8 the month before. Still, that would be the sixth straight month of contraction for the country's manufacturing sector.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of, Reuters, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Tokyo, Japan Asia, Pacific, China
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