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☆ Can EVs and Solar Panels Save China’s Economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-evs-and-solar-panels-save-chinas-economy-44dd06dc

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Chinese Oil Demand Doesn’t Make Sense
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Despite Yellen, U.S.-China Decoupling Has Momentum of Its Own
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-yellen-u-s-china-decoupling-has-momentum-of-its-own-9389d6d

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ China’s Brain Drain Threatens Its Future
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Persons: Dow Jones, dbe38096

☆ Beijing Must Act to Avoid an ‘L-Shaped’ Future
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-must-act-to-avoid-an-l-shaped-future-c5f90d50

Persons: Dow Jones, c5f90d50 Locations: beijing

☆ China’s Recovery Is in Real Peril Now
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ China’s Spring Stall Darkens Employment Picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-spring-stall-darkens-employment-picture-2afa1f1f

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Singapore’s Moment Is Here. Will It Last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Private rental costs in Singapore rose 30% in 2022, according to official data. Photo: roslan rahman/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesSingapore, Hong Kong’s longtime rival, is having a moment as Hong Kong struggles with the fallout from its political crackdown and China sends decidedly mixed signals on its own openness to foreign capital. The Southeast Asian city-state is also dealing with the sudden downsides of success: namely an epic surge in housing prices. To keep the march it has stolen on Hong Kong it will need to tame its housing market—and demonstrate that it truly is neutral territory in the intensifying competition between the U.S. and China.

☆ Beijing’s Bain Raid, Espionage Law Are Self-Sabotage
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

It’s Party time. Photo: Ng Han Guan/Associated PressChina’s economy is bouncing back quicker than expected. So, unfortunately, are the sort of heavy-handed policies that spooked investors during China’s last big expansion in 2021. On Wednesday China updated its counterespionage statute to cover all “documents, data, materials or items related to national security,” a considerably wider remit than the previous “state secrets and intelligence.” Recent weeks have also brought a raid of Bain & Co.’s Shanghai offices, the detention of Beijing staff at New York-based due diligence firm Mintz Group, and the arrest of a Japanese pharmaceuticals employee for alleged spying.

☆ For Taiwan, as for Ukraine, Energy Security Is Existential
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A screen in Beijing showed a Chinese military plane taking part in a drill around Taiwan this month. But at some point, Taiwan could face a real Chinese blockade, not just a simulated one. Whether such a blockade ultimately succeeds would depend on many things, but in no small part on something crucial to all modern economies: energy. Taiwan currently imports nearly all its energy: mostly coal, oil and natural gas. Moreover, while Ukraine was able to integrate its grid with the European Union’s in record time after Russia’s invasion, Taiwan’s island geography largely precludes such a solution.

☆ For Taiwan, Energy Security Would Be More Perilous Than Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A screen in Beijing showing a Chinese military plane taking part in a drill around Taiwan this month. China’s latest military exercises around Taiwan have come to an end. But at some point, Taiwan could face a real Chinese blockade, not just a simulated one. Whether such a blockade ultimately succeeds would depend on many things, but in no small part on something crucial to all modern economies: energy.

☆ OPEC+ Cut Won’t Throttle Chinese Oil Demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Brent oil prices promptly spiked 6%. The move by major oil exporters may reflect concerns about global demand, but signals emerging from China—the world’s largest crude importer—strongly suggest that its recovery in oil demand has further to run. That will help underpin global oil prices even if U.S. demand weakens significantly. And a larger bump in Chinese demand is still likely later this year as China’s property and tourism sectors find steadier footing.

☆ Turkey Epitomizes the West’s Russia Sanctions Dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-epitomizes-the-wests-russia-sanctions-dilemma-5b20a451

☆ China Begins to Reflate, but Jobs Lag
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

China’s economy has turned a corner at last. While it isn’t yet clear how long and robust its post-Covid recovery will be, January and February data released Wednesday—and other tidbits over the past week—make it clear that the world’s second-largest economy is steadily climbing out of the deep hole policy makers dug at the end of 2022. Critically, most housing-related indicators are now clearly pointing up again, albeit from a low base. Unemployment, particularly among young people, is still a significant concern. But with consumer demand returning and signs that households are increasingly willing to borrow and spend again, China should have little trouble achieving the growth target of around 5% for 2023 just set in Beijing.

☆ How Russia Supplies Its War Machine
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Western sanctions were supposed to strangle Russia’s economy after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A year later, though, it hasn’t ground to a halt. One big reason: The ability of the U.S. and its allies to dictate global trade flows in high-technology items like microchips has, so far, proven much less effective than many had assumed. While Russia-bound exports of semiconductors, machinery and other equipment from places like the U.S., the European Union and Japan have dropped sharply, firms in numerous sanctions-skeptical Asian and Middle Eastern jurisdictions—especially China, Turkey and Hong Kong—have stepped into the breach, selling their own equipment or reshipping foreign goods to Russia. Both Russian customs data provided to The Wall Street Journal by national-security nonprofit C4ADS and official data from China, Turkey and elsewhere demonstrate how quickly trade flows have reorganized after an initial dip in early 2022.

☆ China’s Post-Covid Bounce Has Arrived
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A heavy-machinery factory in Xuzhou, China. The country’s manufacturing rose in February to the highest levels since 2012. China’s economy has kicked off the year of the rabbit with a bounce worthy of its sprightly zodiac avatar. The January and February Chinese purchasing managers indexes are always worth watching because they are one of the few pieces of concrete data to emerge from China in late winter and early spring. Both the official and privately compiled Caixin manufacturing indexes jumped, with the former reaching 52.6, its highest since 2012.

☆ How Microchips Migrate From China to Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Chinese customs data show that shipments of integrated circuits to Russia were valued at $179 million in 2022—against just $74 million a year prior. The U.S. invented microchips and it has threatened sanctions on anyone who sells many, if not most, varieties to Russia. Still, recent leaks—and some publicly available data—make clear that they keep showing up on Russian shores. At the center of the trade is China and, allegedly, a few other intermediary countries such as Turkey. But stemming the flow of semiconductors—which power both everyday appliances and military equipment—into Russia presents a particularly tough problem.

☆ BHP Will Start to Dig Itself Out in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The collapse in iron ore prices has been hard on Australian mining company BHP. Australian mining company BHP had a rough half year—not unexpected given where the price of iron ore, its biggest earner, was in late 2022. But there are still a few potential party spoilers for 2023: namely China and U.S. inflation. And the company’s net debt rose 13% to $6.9 billion. Lower cash generation and cash balances were the main factor: gross debt still fell nearly $2 billion to $14.7 billion.

☆ When U.S.-China Relations Go ‘Pop’
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

☆ China’s Demographic Balloon Is Rapidly Losing Altitude
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

China’s declining population means fewer workers for its low-cost manufacturing model, but there are other ramifications as well. Beijing has spent the past week needling Washington over the forcible deflation and subsequent crash of a certain balloon. But a different sort of leakage should worry Beijing much more: China’s population fell outright last year for the first time since the early 1960s. The threat posed by China’s declining labor force to its low-cost manufacturing model is well understood. But worsening demographics could strike at the heart of China’s development strategy in another way as well: by eating away at the savings it needs to finance its expansive industrial policy and research juggernaut.

☆ Russia’s ‘Energy Weapon’ Is Hurting China Too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Europe has had a tough winter—but warm weather and a herculean effort to find new natural gas supplies has limited the economic damage from Moscow’s decision to curb gas exports to the continent. Some of that damage is instead showing up in a very different gas market and one Russia is counting on for its growth: China. Unlike in Europe, winter in parts of Northern China is proving to be bitterly cold. Moreover China’s energy sector reforms since 2020—and a major policy push in recent years to use more gas for environmental reasons—have left some Chinese city utilities more exposed to rising global prices. One result has been the curtailment of gas supply to some residents, who pay lower regulated prices for gas than industrial customers.

☆ Chinese ‘Revenge Spending’ Might Not Hit U.S. Levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Year of the Rabbit is nearly here, and China’s economy, after a very tough 2022, is poised for a leap. China could grow 5% in 2023—compared with 6% in 2019 and 3% last year—and perhaps even more than that. The bull case essentially rests on the postpandemic experience of the West, and the U.S. in particular. During the worst stretches of 2020, many people stayed home and saved. In 2021, as the public health situation improved people began to spend, helping ignite an economic boom—and inflation.

☆ Greener, More Secure Supply Chains Won’t Come Cheap
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

China currently sits at the center of global supply chains, which gives it significant geopolitical leverage. As 2023 dawns, the supply-chain snarls that characterized much of 2021 and 2022 are clearly untangling. But the new year brings new challenges: the rise of “green protectionism” and an accelerated effort by multinationals to diversify away from China. These two interrelated trends both promise substantial long-term benefits—namely a more livable planet and a more resilient global supply chain—but will probably entail significant costs for companies and consumers in the meantime.

☆ China Won’t Spoil the Fed’s Soft Landing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The ghosts of past China booms are haunting U.S. investors this Christmas. Specifically, the prospect that China’s reopening could lift oil prices—and thus complicate the Federal Reserve’s campaign to bring down inflation—has some investors tossing and turning in their sleep. They should rest easier. The country’s reopening will boost global oil demand, but almost certainly by much less than many market participants seem to expect.

☆ China’s Pro-Business Shift May Prove Fickle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

China’s change in tone, and news on audits in particular, is positive for U.S.-listed Chinese tech companies such as Alibaba. U.S.-listed Chinese companies are finally getting some light shown on their books by U.S. audit officials. A letter from Terry Gou , the founder of Apple supplier Foxconn, was a key factor behind Beijing’s sudden shift away from its draconian set of zero-Covid policies. The Politburo last week explicitly named buttressing foreign investors’ sentiment as a key priority. And Chinese ride-hailing company Didi, under a more-or-less unrelenting regulatory assault since mid-2021, may soon be permitted back into domestic app stores.

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