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☆ Against the Odds, the U.S. Economy Chugs Along, as Fears Linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the dampening effect of higher rates has confronted the robust income and spending of many households and the staying power of businesses — both buttressed by emergency pandemic support from Congress and the Fed. Though families, business managers and investors alike have had to contend with the frustrating realities of inflation and economic uncertainty, growth has continued, almost defiantly. Some economists think it might be possible to wrestle inflation down fully without causing a big jump in unemployment. “The environment of ‘pick the data point that supports your narrative’ persists,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “I still think a recession is more likely than not.”

Persons: Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, ”, Oren Klachkin, “ Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Oxford Economics

Friday’s fresh labor market data probably offered little to dissuade them from raising interest rates at their meeting later this month. The June data is the last payrolls report officials will receive before the central bank’s July 25-26 meeting. It underscored many of the labor market themes that have been present for months: While job growth is gradually slowing, wage growth remains abnormally quick and the unemployment rate is very low at 3.6 percent. Investors widely expect the Fed to raise rates at their July meeting, and Friday’s data only reinforced that prediction. But several policymakers have been clear that even as the pace moderates, they still expect to raise interest rates further.

Persons: ” Lorie K, Logan, ” Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, ” Fed

☆ The Job Market Cools, but Remains Strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, which was the 30th consecutive month of job growth, according to data released today. The gains, however, were the slowest in a two-and-a-half-year streak of growth. Analysts saw the report as more or less good news, especially following slowing inflation. Some experts have warned that the Federal Reserve’s moves to fight rising prices could result in significant job losses, while policymakers have expressed concerns that the job market remains too hot. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates later this month in an effort to drag inflation down lower, which could further cool the labor market.

Persons: Talmon Joseph Smith, “, —

☆ Ex-Prisoners Face Headwinds as Job Seekers, Even as Openings Abound
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Hennings served 20 years in prison for reckless homicide in a confrontation he and his uncle had with another man. Even though he mostly hires formerly incarcerated men — at least 20 so far — he candidly tells some candidates that he has limited “wiggle room to decipher whether you changed or not.” Still, Mr. Hennings, 51, is quick to add that he has been frustrated by employers that use those circumstances as a blanket excuse. “I understand that it takes a little more work to try to decipher all of that, but I know from hiring people myself that you just have to be on your judgment game,” he said. “It’s hard for them not to look at you a certain way and still hard for them to get over that stigma,” Mr. Hennings said. “And that’s part of the conditioning and culture of American society.”

Persons: Hennings, —, ”, Mr

☆ Job Openings Rose in April, Defying Cooling Trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in openings may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to take interest rates even higher. “JOLTS data should not drastically color this broader assessment of labor market tightness but will matter at the margins for the Fed’s own perception of labor market heat.”Some question how much weight to give the report. After peaking at a record of around 12 million in March 2022, job openings as measured by the government have fallen overall. Some economists think the JOLTS report should be taken with a grain of salt. The May employment report, to be released by the Labor Department on Friday, will fill out the labor market picture before Fed policymakers meet on June 13 and 14.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Skanda Amarnath, Gregory Daco, ”, Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Bloomberg Locations: America, EY

☆ Companies Push Prices Higher, Protecting Profits but Adding to Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

PepsiCo is not alone in continuing to raise prices. “Everybody knew that the war in Ukraine was inflationary, that grain prices were going up, blah, blah, blah. The Producer Price Index, which measures the prices businesses pay for goods and services before they are sold to consumers, reached a high of 11.7 percent last spring. That rate has plunged to 2.3 percent for the 12 months through April. The price of carbonated drinks rose nearly 12 percent in April, over the previous 12 months.

☆ The Greatest Wealth Transfer in History Is Here, With Familiar (Rich) Winners
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | Karl Russell | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Pearl has two young adult sons with trust funds in the “seven figures.” He is also the chair of the Patriotic Millionaires, a nonprofit group of well-heeled Americans pushing for the wealthy to pay much more in taxes. “I have right now in my stock portfolio, some stock that my wife’s father, who died a long time ago, bought in the 1970s — that investment has gone from a few thousand dollars to many hundreds of thousands of dollars,” Mr. Pearl noted. “You just loan yourself money,” he explained, and in many if not most cases, the portfolio’s rate of return exceeds the rate of interest on the loan. Mr. Pearl doesn’t think the U.S. government “needs more money from rich people” to fund itself. Rather, his support for reforming the tax system arises from his belief that the rich have begun to monopolize resources and opportunity in a way that jeopardizes social stability and economic growth.

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