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☆ ECB 50-basis-point hike in March a done deal, May and June undecided
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference this month that the euro zone's central bank would add 50 basis points to the deposit rate. Economists took her at her word, with all 57 of them polled in the Feb. 10-15 period expecting a deposit rate hike to 3.00% at the March 16 meeting. The ECB will follow up on March's move with a further 25-basis-point lift next quarter, medians showed, giving a terminal deposit rate of 3.25% and a refinancing rate of 3.75%. In response to an additional question, an overwhelming majority - 26 of 28 - said the risk was the terminal deposit rate ends higher than they expect, rather than lower. Markets are currently pricing in a terminal deposit rate of 3.50%.

☆ At least two more Fed rate hikes and no cut this year, say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

All 37 who replied to an extra question said the bigger risk was the fed funds rate would peak even higher. That means the Fed is going to keep the policy rate at high levels for quite a bit longer." One-third, or 18 of those 54 economists, predicted the fed funds rate would peak at 4.75%-5.00% and hold there through the remainder of the year. The unemployment rate, currently at the lowest since 1969, was expected to climb to 4.8% in Q1 2024, by which time most economists were expecting at least one rate cut. Asked which was more likely to compel a rate cut, 21 of 35 economists said a significant fall in inflation, with 14 saying a significant rise in unemployment.

☆ RBI to hike repo rate by 25 bps in Feb, ending tightening cycle: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Like many other major central banks, the RBI is expected to then pause, waiting for inflation to fall before considering a shift toward a stimulative stance as Asia's third-largest economy slows. More than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, expected the RBI to raise its key repo rate (INREPO=ECI) by 25 basis points to 6.50%, according to a Jan. 13-27 Reuters poll. "They (the RBI) need to pause at some point to see what exactly is the impact of the previous monetary tightening overall on growth and inflation. That is why I believe it is not premature for them to pause after 6.50%," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. A deteriorating global economic outlook also suggests downgrades to India's outlook are likely in coming months.

☆ Indian govt to borrow a record 16 trillion rupees in fiscal 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Gross borrowing next fiscal year is expected to hit 16.0 trillion rupees, up from an estimated 14.2 trillion rupees in 2022/23, according to the median forecast of 43 economists. Predictions were in a narrow range of 14.8 trillion to 17.2 trillion rupees. Even if it is at the lower end of the range, 2023/2024 gross borrowing would easily be the highest on record. Nim estimated repayments for 2023/24 at about 4.4 trillion rupees. India's government will cut food and fertiliser subsidies to 3.7 trillion rupees, more than 25% below the level of around 5 trillion rupees budgeted for 2022/23, the poll found.

Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back, according to the survey. But private investment has lagged New Delhi's lead for about a decade. Capex is set to increase in fiscal 2023/24 by about 17% to 8.85 trillion Indian rupees ($109 billion), from an estimated 7.50 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, itself up roughly 35% on a year before. Reuters Poll: Indian budget projections - 1The total of public and private investment as a proportion of the economy has declined since 2014, when Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power. The poll also found the government would cut food and fertiliser subsidies by 26% to 3.7 trillion rupees from almost 5.0 trillion rupees expected during the current fiscal year.

☆ China's exports seen cooling further in December on weak global demand, COVID woes: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Imports are expected to have fallen at a slower pace at 9.8% over December, after a fall of 10.6% in November. With many of China's trade partners on the verge of going into recession, external demand is cooling, only adding to the pressure Chinese policymakers are under to stem the economic fallout of the spread of COVID. "The trade outlook could be a top threat to China's growth ambition next year," said analysts at Citi in a note. "We are concerned about the external demand amid global recession risks... our base case is a modest decline of exports in 2023E," they added. Reporting by Joe Cash; polling by Veronica Khongwir and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Raju GopalakrishnanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

Among the nine housing markets surveyed, prices in six were expected to drop next year. Cost of living increases will also reduce demand as some consumers delay home purchases," noted analysts at Fitch Ratings, adding there was "significant uncertainty" around how much house prices would fall. An overwhelming majority of analysts polled by Reuters in the past weeks said house prices need to fall more than they currently expected in order to make them affordable. Already falling sharply, Australia and New Zealand housing prices were likely to fall further next year, by around 16%-18% from their peaks. The last time house prices fell sharply was during the global financial crisis almost 15 years ago, but with most major economies forecast to enter only a shallow recession, a similar crash was unlikely.

☆ Bank of England to add 50 bps to Bank Rate on Dec. 15; peak at 4.25% in Q2: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We think it will be a 50 bp rise, taking Bank Rate to 3.50%, with risks weighted towards a larger 75 bp move, rather than a smaller 25 bp one." Only two economists expected a 75 bp increase next week compared to 13 of 56 in the Nov. 23 poll. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to shift down to a 50 bp move this month after four consecutive 75 bp increases, a separate Reuters poll found. After next week's move, the BoE will add another 50 bps in the first quarter and 25 bps in the second, with medians showing Bank Rate peaking at 4.25% then. In last month's survey, Bank Rate was expected to peak at 4.25% next quarter and there was a big divide between economists in the latest survey as to when and where it would level out.

☆ Toronto market seen higher if economic downturn not too severe: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"If the downturn doesn't prove to be severe, equity markets could stabilize even as economic data and earnings underwhelm," said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, Missouri. Canada's economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. "While corporate earnings will likely continue to decline for many industries, we see continued growth in earnings across most commodities," said Arthur Salzer, chief executive officer of Northland Wealth Management. Adding to investor enthusiasm, the TSX last Wednesday closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 4. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sarupya GangulyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Summary poll dataBUENOS AIRES/MEXICO CITY, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Brazil stocks will rally by double-digits through end-2023, despite uncertainty about new government policies as President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks to balance social priorities and budget constraints, a Reuters poll predicted. The benchmark Bovespa stock index (.BVSP) is set to rally 13% by end-2023 to 123,250 points from 108,976 points on Friday, according to the median estimate of 11 strategists polled Nov. 14-23. The Ibovespa (index) is still at a discount, awaiting government news," said Fernando Bresciani, research analyst at Andbank. Members of his transition group have voiced contrasting opinions on 2023 budget talks and the leadership race for the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). Private economists in a central bank weekly poll projected an expansion rate of just 0.7%.

☆ Oil embargo set to restrain Russian stocks recovery in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Russian market crashed in February after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering sweeping western sanctions. Risk aversion has soared but some fundamentals, such as a strong price of oil, Russia's main export, have underpinned the market. The G7, European Union and Australia, are set to implement a price cap on seaborne exports of Russian oil on Dec. 5. Oil and gas exporters have a strong weighting in Russian stock indexes. "For Russian oil producers, the 2023 outlook is closely linked to the effect from the EU oil embargo on Russian oil and oil products, and also the effect from the price ceiling," said Mikhail Shulgin, head of global research at Otkritie Investment.

☆ Rates and recession: European shares face rocky start to 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

For the coming months, though, investors fear euro zone equities could lag other markets. "The economic outlook looks challenging as our economists forecast a recession in the euro zone," said Marc Haefliger, Head of Global Equity Strategy at Credit Suisse in Zurich. The economic slowdown will hit the cyclical euro zone market disproportionately," he added. The STOXX index of the euro zone's top 50 blue chip stocks (.STOXX50E) is seen falling another 7.9% from Friday's close to 3,650 points by mid-2023. Among country benchmarks, Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) is seen ending the first half of 2023 at 13,209, down 9.2% from Friday's close.

☆ UK house price rally to end next year but no big crash expected
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices fell for the first time in 28 months in October, according to a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors which also showed a measure of expectations for house prices in 12 months' time slumped. During the financial crisis house prices fell around 19% from peak to trough but have since roughly doubled, according to Land Registry data. When asked about the chance of a price crash within a year nine of 16 respondents said it was high or very high. Rating the value of national house prices on a scale of 1 to 10 from extremely cheap to extremely expensive, the median response from analysts was 8, up from August's 7 estimate. In London, usually bolstered by foreign investment and a dearth of supply, the median forecast showed prices would fall 7.0% next year.

☆ Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After adding 75 basis points to Bank Rate earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee will add a more modest 50 basis points on Dec. 15, taking it to 3.50%, the Nov. 18-22 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%. Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75. Reuters Poll - Bank of England monetary policy outlook for DecemberAt the Nov. 3 meeting Governor Andrew Bailey told investors, who were pricing in a peak around 4.70%, their rate hike bets looked too big. The United States Federal Reserve has made four consecutive 75 basis point increases but was expected to shift down the pace to a 50 basis point move next month.

☆ ECB to go big again on Oct. 27 with 75 bps rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters Poll - Euro zone economic outlookIn the run-up to winter, forecasters are expecting the ECB to be more aggressive in tightening policy. The bloc's central bank will take the deposit rate to 1.50% and the refinancing rate to 2.00% next Thursday, a view held by an overwhelming majority of respondents in the Oct. 12-18 Reuters poll of more than 60 economists. Three-quarters of respondents to an additional question, 27 of 36, said the bank ought to choose a 75 basis point lift to the deposit rate while two said it should go harder with a 100 basis point increase. Reuters Poll - ECB monetary policy outlookSHORT AND SHALLOW? The deposit rate was expected to reach a peak of 2.50% next year and the refinancing rate 3.00%, higher than the 1.50% and 2.00% highs given in September.

☆ ECB to go big again on Oct. 27 with 75 bps rate hike: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. "The short-run pain of recession would be better than the long-run pain of inflation expectations becoming unanchored." Also, unlike most major central banks, the Fed has backing from a strong currency and a relatively strong economy compared with its peers. "The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved."

☆ Norway to hike rates by 50 basis points this week - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A view shows the building of Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) in Oslo, Norway, June 23, 2022. Of the 30 economists surveyed, 28 predicted Norges Bank will hike by 50 basis points (bps) on Sept. 22 to a rate of 2.25%, the highest level since 2011. A majority of participants in the Reuters poll now say rates will likely hit 2.75% by the end of the year, well above the 2.25% projected by the central bank in June. The central bank last week released a businesses survey indicating a weaker outlook for companies. The Reuters poll predicted that Norges Bank could begin cutting its policy rate in 2024.

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